Donald Trump triggers prospect of global trade war over ‘reciprocal’ tariff plan – increasing risk of tensions and inflation
The US president has promised to target countries which charge tax on US imports by matching them with a reciprocal tariff.
Donald Trump has ordered his team to start calculating duties by early April – increasing fears of a global trade war that could also accelerate US inflation.
“On trade, I have decided for purposes of fairness, that I will charge a reciprocal tariff, meaning whatever countries charge the United States of America, we will charge them. No more, no less,” he posted on Truth Social.
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What is America’s trade position?
It is set to spark negotiations with dozens of countries aimed at lowering their tariffs and trade barriers. The US wants to shrink its goods trade deficit which topped $1.2trn (£954bn) last year.
A White House official said that countries with large US trade surpluses could be targeted first. The top five are China, Mexico, Vietnam, Ireland and Germany, according to the US Census Bureau.
Trump’s total trade war
Taken at face value Donald Trump’s embrace of reciprocal tariffs is a declaration of total trade war.
It would amount to perhaps the single biggest peacetime shock to global commerce.
In promising to levy import taxes on any nation that imposes tariffs or VAT on US exports, he is following through on a campaign promise.
The aim is to address a near trillion dollar trade deficit – the difference between the value of America’s exports and its imports – that he believes amounts to a tax on American jobs.
In response, he wants to deploy tariffs to simultaneously ease the US deficit and – in theory – price out imports in favour of domestic production.
His primary targets appear to be the major trading partners with whom the trading deficit is greatest.
It is a blow to the emerging view in Whitehall that Britain might wriggle through the chaos relatively unscathed.
Read more from Paul here.
UK government minister Pat McFadden told Sky News’ Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge that Britain will take a “wait and see” approach when it comes to the tariffs. He refused to say if the government would retaliate.
Trump latest: New tariffs signal ‘total trade war’
The UK could be hit with tariffs as high as 24% if Mr Trump follows through on his threats to treat VAT as a tariff, according to Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics.
Although some estimates are lower, he thinks Britain would be the fourth hardest hit, following India (29%), Brazil (28%) and the EU (25%).
This is based on VAT rates combined with existing tariffs, but the Trump administration also intends to take into account regulations, government subsidies, digital services taxation policies and exchange rate policies.
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“Most people would consider VAT to be a non-discriminatory tax since it is also applied to domestically-produced goods making a level playing field,” said Mr Ashworth.
But the US still argues that VAT is a form of discriminatory tariff because America applies a much lower average sales tax at state level.
Narendra Modi and Donald Trump at the White House. Pic: AP
On Thursday, Mr Trump also held a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, agreeing to join forces on artificial intelligence, semiconductors and strategic minerals.
During a news conference afterwards, Mr Trump said India has been “very strong on tariffs” and “it’s very hard to sell into India”, adding: “They’re going to be purchasing a lot of our oil and gas.”
India’s tariff rates are the highest, according to the World Trade Organisation, with a simple average 17% rate for all products compared to 3.3% for the US.
Elon Musk says he has created a new political party – the America Party –
after asking his followers if he should do so in an online poll.
It follows his public falling out with Republican President Donald Trump.
On Friday, the billionaire had asked his followers on X whether a new US political party should be created.
On Saturday evening he wrote on the same platform: “By a factor of 2 to 1, you want a new political party and you shall have it!
“When it comes to bankrupting our country with waste & graft, we live in a one-party system, not a democracy.
“Today, the America Party is formed to give you back your freedom.”
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Trump threatens to ‘put DOGE’ on Musk
The world’s richest man made the announcement just one day after President Trump signed a tax-cut and spending bill into law on Friday, which Musk had fiercely opposed.
Musk had previously said we would form and fund a new political party to unseat lawmakers who supported the bill.
From bromance to bust-up
The Tesla boss backed Trump’s election campaign with more than a quarter of a billion dollars, later rewarded with a high profile role running the newly created department of government efficiency (DOGE).
But observers of the two men, both with huge wealth and reputations, wondered how long the bromance would last.
Donald Trump gave Musk a warm send-off in the Oval Office in May. Pic: Reuters
In May Musk left the role, still on good terms with Trump but criticising key parts of his legislative agenda.
After that, the attacks ramped up, with Musk slamming the sweeping tax and spending bill as a “disgusting abomination” and Trump hitting back in a barbed tit-for-tat.
Trump earlier this week threatened to cut off the billion-dollar federal subsidies that flow to Musk’s companies, and said he would even consider deporting him.
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