Cox: EVs are America’s future, but policy will set the pace
The US EV market closed out 2024 on a high note despite swirling uncertainty about the future of federal tax incentives. Cox Automotive’s newly released Q4 data shows a record 365,824 EVs sold – up 15.2% from the previous quarter – and annual EV sales of 1.3 million, a 7% increase from 2023.
We spoke with Stephanie Valdez Streaty, strategic planning director at Cox Automotive, about how these strong numbers underscore growing consumer interest in electrified transportation, even as key federal policies remain in flux.
Electrek: What role is leasing playing in growing EV adoption?
Stephanie Valdez Streaty: Notably, we continue to see leasing serve as a prime pathway for EV adoption. With purchase incentives subject to a variety of eligibility rules, many consumers have gravitated toward EV leases instead.
This “leasing loophole” has fewer restrictions, making it a particularly attractive option for those models that do not qualify for the full purchase tax credit.
In recent months, leasing rates have surged as automakers and dealers encourage consumers to take advantage of lower monthly payments, reduced risk of depreciation, and immediate federal subsidies funneled through the lessor.
While it’s difficult to tease out exactly how fears of expiring incentives fuel these numbers, there is little doubt that the current federal tax structure is helping put more EVs on the road.
Electrek: Which new EV models are driving sales growth, and what barriers are still slowing widespread adoption?
Stephanie Valdez Streaty: As always, Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y continue to lead the pack, but Q4 data shows other models rapidly gaining ground.
Honda’s new Prologue vaulted to the No 3 spot for the quarter after launching in April, buoyed by strong brand recognition and pent-up demand.
Meanwhile, Chevrolet’s Equinox and Blazer EVs – delayed earlier by software issues – also contributed to higher sales once they came fully online.
Price remains the single biggest barrier for would-be EV buyers, and truly sub-$30,000 EVs are still scarce in the US market. Yet, with lower-priced models on the horizon – such as potential updates to the Chevrolet Bolt and new entries like the Kia EV3 – manufacturers are working to broaden consumer choice at more affordable price points. The arrival of these options in late 2024 and 2025 may help sustain the upward sales momentum.
Electrek: If the $7,500 federal Inflation Reduction Act EV tax credit is canceled by the Trump administration, what role could states play in terms of incentives for consumers?
Stephanie Valdez Streaty: Much of the future of EV adoption may hinge on the policy environment. In some states, generous incentives have significantly accelerated the shift to electric mobility. Colorado, for example, has combined its own rebate program with federal tax credits, making EV ownership increasingly accessible –and the state has seen one of the US’s highest jumps in EV adoption over the past year.
Meanwhile, California remains the largest single EV market, thanks to stricter emissions standards, robust incentives, and a strong charging infrastructure network. Many other states are now following suit by adopting California’s Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) standards – effectively matching or exceeding federal requirements for EV adoption.
If federal consumer tax credits were to shrink or disappear, analysts suggest that more states could step in to fill the gap with their own subsidies. Whether or not they do, though, may largely depend on budget constraints and each state’s broader clean energy goals.
Electrek: How could the cancellation of the $7,500 EV tax credit impact the wider EV industry, such as manufacturing?
Stephanie Valdez Streaty: Billions of dollars in EV and battery-manufacturing investments have already flowed into the US, often into states with historically lower EV adoption rates. As these new plants come online, they will require a healthy level of consumer demand to reach scale. That reality ties the fortunes of federal incentives, state policies, and local economies more tightly together. If incentives vanish abruptly, these investments might be underutilized, potentially cooling the pace of the entire EV market.
Electrek: What are your predictions for the US EV market in 2025 and beyond, despite the lack of policy support from the Trump administration?
Stephanie Valdez Streaty: Looking ahead, the near-term forecast remains positive. Industry analysts project about a 10% EV market share by 2025, helped by the continued rollout of new models (up to 15 more hitting showrooms in the next year or two) and an improving charging network. Still, the growth rate will likely slow somewhat compared to the initial surge – typical of any maturing technology – and hinge on consumer confidence, price parity with gas-powered cars, and the reliability of fast-charging infrastructure.
The US still lags behind countries like China, where strong government policy and an abundance of competitively priced EVs have led to even faster adoption. However, the global trend toward electrification is unmistakable, and even if the US road has a few detours – whether in the form of changing incentives, evolving emission rules, or shifting consumer tastes – the trajectory is clear: EVs are well on their way to becoming a fixture of the American automotive landscape.
Ultimately, how quickly we get there depends on a confluence of factors, including continuing incentives, state-level action, and industry innovation. One certainty is that consumer awareness and acceptance of EVs will keep climbing, with new models, better infrastructure, and flexible financing options pushing the technology further into the mainstream. The destination is electric; the timetable, however, still hinges on what policymakers decide in the months and years ahead.
Read more: Ford CEO warns Trump tariffs will ‘blow a hole’ in the US auto industry like we’ve never seen
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Tesla and Honda are set to purchase all the power from Delilah I, a new 300 MW solar farm in Texas.
The Delilah I Solar Energy Center in Lamar and Red River counties, approximately 140 miles northeast of Dallas, is now online. Honda is securing 200 MW, and Tesla is taking 100 MW through virtual power purchase agreements (VPPAs). The energy is being fed into the local grid. The project was developed by Invenergy and is majority-owned by Milwaukee-based WEC Energy Group, which acquired it in April.
Delilah I is part of the five-phase Samson & Delilah solar portfolio, one of the largest solar facilities under construction in the US. WEC Energy Group already owns a majority interest in Samson I — a separate phase of the Samson & Delilah project.
Invenergy highlighted the role of landowners and the local community in bringing the project to life, creating jobs, and adding more US-made clean energy to the grid.
“In North America, Honda is nearing its goal of sourcing 100% of its electricity from carbon-free sources,” said Daniel Bremer, carbon neutrality manager at American Honda Motor Co. “As we accelerate toward achieving carbon neutrality for all products and corporate activities, our 200 MW VPPA with Delilah I Solar Energy Center will significantly cut CO2 emissions from Honda US auto manufacturing operations while adding more clean energy into the local grid.”
Read more: A vast 600 MW Texas solar farm just hit a major milestone
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Danish renewables developer European Energy (EE) has completed the sale of its largest solar farm in the US to date.
Copenhagen-based European Energy said it sold the solar farm to an undisclosed buyer so that it can develop, deliver, and recycle capital into new US renewable energy projects. EE develops solar, onshore and offshore wind, power-to-X, and battery storage projects. It arrived in the US in 2021 and has an office in Austin.
Lorena Ciciriello, chief executive of EE North America, said, “Our goal in the US is to create a broad portfolio of renewable energy solutions, and this sale is an important step in realizing our strategy.”
It’s the Danish developer’s “second major divestment” in the US since European Energy entered the solar market in 2021, bringing the total capacity divested to 800 MW. The company sold its first US solar farm, Yellow Viking in Texas, in 2023.
When fully operational, the still unnamed solar farm – EE doesn’t say where in the US it’s located, either – is expected to produce around 1,389 GWh of electricity annually, equivalent to the annual consumption of 128,000 US households.
“We remain committed to developing renewable energy projects in the USA that drive local growth and create jobs,” said Thorvald Spanggaard, EVP and head of project development at European Energy.
Electrek’s Take
This announcement, which is light on details, piqued my interest. It’s a large solar farm sold by a large European-HQ’ed global company that says it’s committed to developing more renewables in the US, which is currently being run by a government that doesn’t consider solar or wind to be defined as energy. What’s the incentive for EE to do that? It sure isn’t federal tax incentives.
What’s coming down the pipeline for renewable projects in the US? Everyone is speculating, but no one knows – not even Republicans, despite the risks of renewable project collapses being highest in their own states. I will make an educated guess and say that EE will sit on its sale proceeds and wait for clarity, which they may never get. That’s because the Trump administration memos and executive orders are deliberately designed to be vague. Chaos is a form of control.
Read more: Republican districts lose billions as clean energy cancellations surge
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