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Tories trail Reform UK on a range of key indicators according to an exclusive new YouGov poll for Sky News that reveals Nigel Farage’s party now has the potential to reach as much of the electorate as the party run by Kemi Badenoch. 

Detailed comparisons of voter opinion towards the Tories and Reform UK reveal that profound damage to the Tory brand is still evident, while the figures suggest that the new challenger party which has topped recent voting intention polls has the capacity to perform at least as well.

This brand testing is helpful so early in a parliament when distinctive policy programmes have not been set out by other parties.

Sky News deputy political editor Sam Coates takes a look at polling for the UK's leading right-wing parties.
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Sky News deputy political editor Sam Coates takes a look at polling for the UK’s leading right-wing parties

Sky News and YouGov tested the Tories and Reform on a string of key positive and negative measurements.

Only 10% of voters currently see the Tories as strong, while 61% see them as weak.

Reform UK does much better on this measure, with 31% of voters calling Reform UK strong, and 27% weak. This means three times as many voters see Reform as strong as the Tories.

There is a similar gap over whether both parties have a sense of direction. Only 18% of voters say they think the Conservatives have a clear sense of purpose, 59% say that’s unclear.

Trustworthy/untrustworthy polling of the Tories and Reform.
How people perceive the Conservatives and Reform on whether they are strong or weak.
How the two right-wing parties line up on a sense of purpose and what they stand for according to exclusive Sky News polling.

However, the figures are different with Reform UK, and more positive, 49% say it has a clear sense of purpose, only 24% say they are unclear on what the party stands for.

That means voters are more than twice as likely to see Reform UK as having a clear direction when compared to the Tories.

The gap is smaller when it comes to trust, though Reform UK still does better than the Tories.

Only 11% say the Tories are trustworthy, 65% say they’re untrustworthy. Again the Reform figures are higher, although by less than others – 19% say they are trustworthy, 52% untrustworthy

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Back 10 years ago, when Nigel Farage led UKIP, some thought he or the party brand was potentially too toxic to lead or for him to become prime minister.

They believed there might be a ceiling on his support that was lower than the pool of potential Tory voters.

But how has that picture changed now he’s leading the new party Reform UK?

One way to measure this is to compare the proportion of the electorate who say they would never vote Tory – those who definitely rule it out – with the proportion that would never vote Reform UK.

Some 56% say they definitely would not vote Reform UK – leaving a potential pool of voters of 44%. But an almost identical figure say they would never vote Tory – 55% – meaning their potential pool of voters is 45%, within the margin of error.

This means there is no discernable lower ceiling on Reform UK than the Tories.

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Voters on the right look more likely to switch from Tory to Reform than the other way around.

Among people who voted Reform UK in the election, some 46% can rule out voting Tory.

However among Conservative voters in last year’s general election, that drops to 36%.

Some 24% of Tory voters last year “will” or “might” vote for Reform UK now, while 8% of Reform voters “will” or “might” vote Tory.

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Inflation jumps to 3.6% on fuel and food price pressures

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Inflation jumps to 3.6% on fuel and food price pressures

The rate of inflation has risen by more than expected on the back of fuel and food price pressures, according to official figures which have prompted accusations of an own goal for the chancellor.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a 3.6% level for the 12 months to June – a pace not seen since January last year.

That was up from the 3.4% rate seen the previous month. Economists had expected no change.

Money latest: What do inflation figures mean for rate cut prospects?

ONS acting chief economist Richard Heys said: “Inflation ticked up in June driven mainly by motor fuel prices which fell only slightly, compared with a much larger decrease at this time last year.

“Food price inflation has increased for the third consecutive month to its highest annual rate since February of last year. However, it remains well below the peak seen in early 2023.”

A key driver of food inflation has been meat prices.

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Beef, in particular, has shot up in cost – by more than 30% over the past year – according to Association of Independent Meat Suppliers data reported by FarmingUK.

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Beef has seen the biggest percentage increase in meat costs. Pic: PA

High global demand alongside raised production costs have been blamed.

But Kris Hamer, director of insight at the British Retail Consortium, said: “While inflation has risen steadily over the last year, food inflation has seen a much more pronounced increase.

“Despite fierce competition between retailers, the ongoing impact of the last budget and poor harvests caused by the extreme weather have resulted in prices for consumers rising.”

It marked a clear claim that tax rises imposed on employers by Rachel Reeves from April have helped stoke inflation.

Balwinder Dhoot, director of sustainability and growth at the Food and Drink Federation, said: “The pressure on food and drink manufacturers continues to build. With many key ingredients like chocolate, butter, coffee, beef, and lamb, climbing in price – alongside high energy and labour expenses – these rising costs are gradually making their way into the prices shoppers pay at the tills.”

Chancellor Rachel Reeves said of the data: “I know working people are still struggling with the cost of living. That is why we have already taken action by increasing the national minimum wage for three million workers, rolling out free breakfast clubs in every primary school and extending the £3 bus fare cap.

“But there is more to do and I’m determined we deliver on our Plan for Change to put more money into people’s pockets.”

The wider ONS data is a timely reminder of the squeeze on living standards still being felt by many households – largely since the end of the COVID pandemic and subsequent energy-driven cost of living crisis.

Record rental costs alongside elevated borrowing costs – the latter a result of the Bank of England’s action to help keep a lid on inflation – have added to the burden on family budgets.

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Is the cost of living crisis over?

Most are still reeling from the effects of high energy bills.

The cost of gas and electricity is among the reasons why the pace of price growth for many goods and services remains above a level the Bank would ideally like to see.

Added to that is the toll placed on finances by wider hikes to bills. April saw those for water, council tax and many other essentials rise at an inflation-busting rate.

The inflation figures, along with employment data due tomorrow, are the last before the Bank of England is due to make its next interest rate decision on 7 August.

The vast majority of financial market participants, and many economists, expect a quarter point cut to 4%.

That forecast is largely based on the fact that wider economic data is suggesting a slowdown in both economic growth and the labour market – twin headaches for a chancellor gunning for growth and juggling hugely squeezed public finances.

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Professor Joe Nellis, economic adviser at the advisory firm MHA, said of the ONS data: “This is a reminder that while price rises have slowed from the highs of 2021-23, the battle against inflation is far from over and there is no return to normality yet – especially for many households who are still feeling the squeeze on essentials such as food, energy, and services.

“However, while the Bank of England is expected to take a cautious approach to interest rate policy, we still expect a cut in interest rates when the Monetary Policy Committee next votes on 7th August.

“Despite inflation at 3.6% remaining above the official 2% target, a softening labour market – slowing wage growth and decreasing job vacancies – means that the MPC will predict inflation to begin falling as we head into the new year, justifying the lowering of interest rates.”

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‘My family is finished’: Afghan man in UK military data breach says he feels betrayed

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'My family is finished': Afghan man in UK military data breach says he feels betrayed

An Afghan man who worked for the British military has told Sky News he feels betrayed and has “completely lost (his) mind” after his identity was part of a massive data breach.

He told The World with Yalda Hakim about the moment he discovered he was among thousands of Afghans whose personal details were revealed, putting him at risk of reprisals from the Taliban.

The man, who spoke anonymously to Sky News from Afghanistan, says he worked with British forces for more than 10 years.

But now, he regrets working alongside those troops, who were first deployed to Afghanistan in 2001.

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Afghans being relocated after data breach

“I have done everything for the British forces … I regret that – why (did) I put my family in danger because of that? Is this justice?

“We work for them, for [the] British, we help them. So now we are left behind, right now. And from today, I don’t know about my future.”

He described receiving an email warning him that his details had been revealed.

He said: “When I saw this one story… I completely lost my mind. I just thought… about my future… my family’s.

“I’ve got two kids. All my family are… in danger. Right now… I’m just completely lost.”

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The mistake by the Ministry of Defence in early 2022 ranks among the worst security breaches in modern British history because of the cost and risk posed to the lives of thousands of Afghans.

On Tuesday, a court order – preventing the media reporting details of a secret relocation programme – was lifted.

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British soldiers wait to be transported to a base in the provincial capital Lashkar Gar in Camp Bastion, Helmand, February 5, 2010. REUTERS/Baris Atayman (AFGHANISTAN - Tags: MILITARY POLITICS CONFLICT)
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Reuters file pic

Defence Secretary John Healey said about 6,900 Afghans and their family members have been relocated or were on their way to the UK under the previously secret scheme.

He said no one else from Afghanistan would be offered asylum, after a government review found little evidence of intent from the Taliban to seek retribution.

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But the anonymous Afghan man who spoke to Sky News disputed this. He claimed the Taliban, who returned to power in 2021, were actively seeking people who worked with British forces.

“My family is finished,” he said. “I request… kindly request from the British government… the King… please evacuate us.

“Maybe tomorrow we will not be anymore. Please, please help us.”

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Family of woman who died after misdiagnosis by ‘substitute doctor’ criticise govt review

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Family of woman who died after misdiagnosis by 'substitute doctor' criticise govt review

The parents of a woman who died after her blood clot was misdiagnosed by someone who she thought was a doctor have called a government-ordered review “a missed opportunity”.

Marion and Brendan Chesterton have welcomed many of the recommendations in Professor Gillian Leng’s review of the role that physician associates (PAs) perform in the NHS, but say “they don’t go far enough”.

Emily, 30, died in November 2022 after suffering a pulmonary embolism. She went to see her GP at a north London surgery twice in the weeks before her death – and on both occasions was seen by a physician associate who missed the blood clot and instead prescribed propranolol for anxiety.

Marion + Brendan Chesterton whose daughter Emily died in November 2022 after suffering a pulmonary embolism
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Marion and Brendan Chesterton

The actress from Salford had told her worried parents that she had been seen by a doctor, but she had not.

Her father Brendan told Sky News: “If she come out and said I’ve seen someone called the physician’s associate I’m sure we would have insisted that, you know, let’s go back and insist that you see a doctor. She never knew.”

Now, a government-ordered review led by Prof Leng, president of the Royal Society of Medicine, has recommended NHS physician associates should be banned from diagnosing patients who have not already had contact with a doctor for their illness.

The report suggests a major change to the role of PAs after it acknowledged they have been used as substitutes for doctors, despite having significantly less training.

Emily Chesterton. Pic: Family handout
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Emily Chesterton. Pic: Family handout

More than 3,500 PAs and 100 anaesthesia associates (AAs) are working in the NHS and there have been previous calls for an expansion in their number.

But a general lack of support for the roles from the medical profession – plus high-profile deaths of patients who were misdiagnosed by PAs – led Health Secretary Wes Streeting to order a review.

Presenting her findings, Prof Leng said: “Crucially I’m recommending that PAs should not see undifferentiated or untriaged patients.

“If (patients) are triaged, they (PAs) should be able to see adult patients with minor ailments in line with relevant guidance from the Royal College of GPs.”

She said more detail was needed on which patients can be seen by PAs and national clinical protocols should be developed in this area.

She added: “Let’s be clear, (the role of PAs) is working well in some places, but there indeed has been some substitution and any substitution is clearly risky and confusing for patients.”

Marion + Brendan Chesterton whose daughter Emily died in November 2022 after suffering a pulmonary embolism, missed by a physician associate

Prof Leng also recommended PAs should be renamed “physician assistants” to position them “as a supportive, complementary member of the medical team” – and have standardised uniforms to distinguish them from doctors – while AAs should be renamed “physician assistants in anaesthesia”.

Newly qualified PAs should also work in hospitals for two years before they are allowed to work in GP surgeries or mental health trusts.

The report said that while research suggests patients are satisfied after seeing a PA, some did not know they were not seeing a doctor.

Prof Leng concluded there were “no convincing reasons to abolish the roles of AA or PA”, but there is also no case “for continuing with the roles unchanged”.

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She recommended that both PAs and AAs should have the opportunity for ongoing training and development, with potential to prescribe medicines in the future, and they should also have the opportunity to become an “advanced” PA or AA.

Six patient deaths linked to contact with PAs have been recorded by coroners in England.

Emily’s mother Marion said some of the review’s findings were significant and her daughter would still be alive if the recommendations had been in place when she fell ill.

Marion Chesterton whose daughter Emily died in November 2022 after suffering a pulmonary embolism which was missed by a physician associate
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Marion Chesterton

She said: “I think so, yes, which is so important, which is why we’re so pleased that this review has been made.”

But Mrs Chesterton added that more could have done, including stopping all PAs from prescribing drugs.

“We feel it’s a missed opportunity. It could have gone all the way there and cleared things up totally. Our daughter died. She was prescribed a drug that she should not have been prescribed. And it had absolutely catastrophic circumstances. She died for goodness sake.”

The Chestertons’ concerns are shared by the British Medical Association (BMA).

British Medical Association (BMA) deputy chair Dr Emma Runswick
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Dr Emma Runswick, the BMA’s deputy chair

Dr Emma Runswick, BMA’s deputy chair, said: “It is definitely a problem that the roles of doctors and now physician assistants has been blurred and it’s positive that their name is going to change, that there will be a uniform.

“But whilst they continue to be deployed in a way that mimics doctors at the behest of any local employer decision, we have to have ongoing concerns about their safety.”

But UMAPs, the trade union which represents both PAs and AAs, has warned the changes will undermine their qualifications and their role, lengthen waiting lists and worsen the impact of any strike action.

Steve Nash, general secretary of UMAPs trade union
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Steve Nash, who represents PAs and AAs

“By trying to placate them, at a time when they’re striking – and they want their strikes to bite the hardest by taking us out of the workforce – we’re now putting patients at risk,” said Steve Nash, general secretary of UMAPs.

“I think the biggest patient safety risk, out there right now, is the BMA,” he added.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who ordered this review, is expected to implement all the recommendations of the report.

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