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Tories trail Reform UK on a range of key indicators according to an exclusive new YouGov poll for Sky News that reveals Nigel Farage’s party now has the potential to reach as much of the electorate as the party run by Kemi Badenoch. 

Detailed comparisons of voter opinion towards the Tories and Reform UK reveal that profound damage to the Tory brand is still evident, while the figures suggest that the new challenger party which has topped recent voting intention polls has the capacity to perform at least as well.

This brand testing is helpful so early in a parliament when distinctive policy programmes have not been set out by other parties.

Sky News deputy political editor Sam Coates takes a look at polling for the UK's leading right-wing parties.
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Sky News deputy political editor Sam Coates takes a look at polling for the UK’s leading right-wing parties

Sky News and YouGov tested the Tories and Reform on a string of key positive and negative measurements.

Only 10% of voters currently see the Tories as strong, while 61% see them as weak.

Reform UK does much better on this measure, with 31% of voters calling Reform UK strong, and 27% weak. This means three times as many voters see Reform as strong as the Tories.

There is a similar gap over whether both parties have a sense of direction. Only 18% of voters say they think the Conservatives have a clear sense of purpose, 59% say that’s unclear.

Trustworthy/untrustworthy polling of the Tories and Reform.
How people perceive the Conservatives and Reform on whether they are strong or weak.
How the two right-wing parties line up on a sense of purpose and what they stand for according to exclusive Sky News polling.

However, the figures are different with Reform UK, and more positive, 49% say it has a clear sense of purpose, only 24% say they are unclear on what the party stands for.

That means voters are more than twice as likely to see Reform UK as having a clear direction when compared to the Tories.

The gap is smaller when it comes to trust, though Reform UK still does better than the Tories.

Only 11% say the Tories are trustworthy, 65% say they’re untrustworthy. Again the Reform figures are higher, although by less than others – 19% say they are trustworthy, 52% untrustworthy

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Back 10 years ago, when Nigel Farage led UKIP, some thought he or the party brand was potentially too toxic to lead or for him to become prime minister.

They believed there might be a ceiling on his support that was lower than the pool of potential Tory voters.

But how has that picture changed now he’s leading the new party Reform UK?

One way to measure this is to compare the proportion of the electorate who say they would never vote Tory – those who definitely rule it out – with the proportion that would never vote Reform UK.

Some 56% say they definitely would not vote Reform UK – leaving a potential pool of voters of 44%. But an almost identical figure say they would never vote Tory – 55% – meaning their potential pool of voters is 45%, within the margin of error.

This means there is no discernable lower ceiling on Reform UK than the Tories.

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Voters on the right look more likely to switch from Tory to Reform than the other way around.

Among people who voted Reform UK in the election, some 46% can rule out voting Tory.

However among Conservative voters in last year’s general election, that drops to 36%.

Some 24% of Tory voters last year “will” or “might” vote for Reform UK now, while 8% of Reform voters “will” or “might” vote Tory.

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Woman charged with stalking Madeleine McCann’s parents

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Woman charged with stalking Madeleine McCann's parents

A woman has been charged with stalking Madeleine McCann’s family.

Julia Wandel, 23, also known as Julia Wandelt, from Poland, was arrested at Bristol Airport on Wednesday, Leicestershire Police said.

She is accused of stalking causing serious alarm or distress against Madeleine’s parents Kate and Gerry McCann between 2 May last year and 15 February this year.

Wandel allegedly turned up at their home and sent letters, calls, voicemails and WhatsApp messages, which amounted to stalking, court documents show.

She is also accused of stalking Madeleine’s sister Amelie between 3 January 3 and 21 April 2024, and her brother Sean between 27 November and 29 December 2024.

A 60-year-old woman from Wales, who was also arrested on suspicion of stalking, has been released on bail, the force added.

Madeleine’s disappearance has become the world’s most mysterious missing child cases. Madeleine disappeared in Portugal’s Algarve back in 2007 while on holiday with her family.

Read more: How the disappearance of Madeleine McCann unfolded

Her parents had left their daughter in bed with her twin siblings while they had dinner with friends at a nearby restaurant in Praia da Luz when the then three-year-old disappeared on 3 May.

The couple, from Leicestershire, have criticised Portuguese authorities for their investigation into her abduction.

The man suspected of kidnapping her will not face any charges in the foreseeable future, a prosecutor told Sky News earlier this year.

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Doctor leading new screening trial warns of ‘sharp rise’ in prostate cancer if disease not detected earlier

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Doctor leading new screening trial warns of 'sharp rise' in prostate cancer if disease not detected earlier

Thousands of men are to be checked for prostate cancer in one of the first large-scale European trials of smart screening.

The pilot study, starting next week in Ireland, will combine a blood test with personal risk factors and an MRI scan to increase the accuracy of screening men in their 50s and 60s.

Up to now health experts have rejected population screening in the belief that the benefits of earlier cancer detection were outweighed by the risks that some men could have unnecessary biopsies and risky treatment they don’t need.

But the PRAISE-U study is an attempt to save lives in a more targeted way, filtering out men who don’t have cancer at an early stage, so they don’t come to any harm.

David Galvin, the head of the study and a surgeon at the Mater Hospital in Dublin, told Sky News that a safe, effective screening strategy was urgently needed.

“There is a tsunami of elderly patients coming towards us,” he said.

“There’s going to be a sharp rise in prostate cancer unless we have a way to detect the disease early and not burden our health care services with vast numbers of scans and biopsies.”

David Galvin, consultant urologist at The Mater Hospital in Dublin
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David Galvin, consultant urologist at The Mater Hospital in Dublin

Thousands diagnosed too late

Prostate cancer is the most common cancer in men in Ireland. In the UK it is now the most common of all cancers, causing more deaths than breast cancer.

There are no symptoms in the early stages. Around 12,000 men a year in the UK alone are diagnosed too late to cure.

Studies have shown that a blood test for a prostate protein called PSA can diagnose cases at an earlier stage, reducing deaths by 40%.

But not all men with cancer have high levels of the PSA protein.

And conversely, high levels can also be caused by other prostate conditions, infections, exercise and sexual activity.

An example of a prostate tumour seen on a MRI scan
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An example of a prostate tumour seen on a MRI scan

The unreliability of the test has held back its use for screening.

But in the Irish pilot study, men will be scored by their PSA level and whether they have other risk factors such as black ethnicity or a family history.

Those at low risk will be retested in future.

Around half of the men will undergo a detailed MRI scan of their prostate to check for tumours – and only half those will then need a biopsy, in which a needle is inserted to extract cells for a precise diagnosis.

Professor Galvin said the multi-stage screening meant only those who really need a biopsy will have one.

“I worked out that if you have the PSA test, there’s about a 1 in 40 chance that you will ultimately need a biopsy.

“The other 39 men are reassured that testing is all normal and they don’t have any clinically significant disease.”

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‘I got away with it by the skin of my teeth’

The PRAISE-U study is backed by the European Association of Urology and funded by the EU.

Around 8,000 men in Waterford and two areas of Dublin will be randomly invited for screening over the next year.

Tony Ward, a rugby legend and one of the best number 10s to play for Ireland, was diagnosed with an aggressive prostate cancer just over a decade ago. Even now he needs daily treatment and regular scans.

He told Sky News screening to detect cancer at an earlier stage is desperately needed.

“It’s everything, it’s massive,” he said.

“I did not have the early diagnosis, but I got away with it by the skin of my teeth.”

Thomas Moore speaking to Tony Ward
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Thomas Moore speaking to Tony Ward

‘Very curable cancer kills 12,000 men every year’

The UK’s National Screening Committee, which advises the Department of Health, is reviewing the evidence on prostate cancer screening. But it’s already taken two years, and a decision still isn’t due until the end of 2025.

Chiara De Biase, director of health services, equity and improvement from Prostate Cancer UK, said men were dying unnecessarily as a result.

She said: “12,000 men die every year from what is – when caught in its earliest stages – a very, very curable cancer.

“We think the evidence [for screening] is there and we can’t see why this has taken so long.”

Chiara De Biase, from Prostate Cancer UK
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Chiara De Biase, director of health services, equity & improvement from Prostate Cancer UK

A spokesperson for the UK government’s Department of Health and Social Care said: “Prostate cancer patients are waiting too long for diagnosis and treatment, and we are determined to change that.

“Our National Cancer Plan will transform the way we treat cancer, making the UK a world leader in cancer survival by fighting the disease on all fronts, through improving research, diagnosis, screening, treatment and prevention.

“The UK National Screening Committee is reviewing the evidence for prostate cancer screening programmes, including targeted approaches for men at higher risk.”

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Jaysley Beck: Army’s handling of sexual assault complaint ‘played part in death’, coroner says

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Jaysley Beck: Army's handling of sexual assault complaint 'played part in death', coroner says

The Army’s failure to properly deal with a soldier’s sexual assault complaint played “more than a minimal” role in her death, a coroner has said.

Royal Artillery Gunner Jaysley Beck, 19, was found dead in her room at Larkhill Camp in Wiltshire on 15 December 2021.

An inquest today recorded a conclusion of suicide “after a prolonged period of stress after harassment by her line management and problems with a relationship”.

Gunner Beck complained to her family about thousands of unwanted messages from her line manager, Ryan Mason, in the months leading up to her death.

He also wrote a 14-page document detailing his “feelings towards Jaysley” and paid for rooms next to each other during a work trip a week before she died, the inquest heard.

Wiltshire Police told the inquest evidence did not support a harassment case against Mr Mason, who is now a driving instructor.

Gunner Beck also formally complained to the Army about the behaviour of Battery Sergeant Major Michael Webber, then 39.

She said he’d pinned her down and tried to kiss her after a drinking game during a team-building event in July 2021.

Gunner Beck, who joined the Army at 16, ended up sleeping in her car as she was so scared, the hearing in Salisbury was told.

WO Webber was given a “minor sanction” and wrote an apology letter – but was later promoted to Warrant Officer 2 rank

Coroner Nicholas Rheinberg said the Army should have reported the alleged incident to police instead of treating it with a “minor administrative action”.

He said this failure was “more than a minimal contributory factor” in Gunner Beck’s death.

An Army report in October 2023 described “an intense period of unwelcome behaviour” and said it was “almost certain this was a causal factor” in her death.

gunner jaysley beck
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Gunner Jaysley Beck

Staff Sergeant Cory Budd, who said he’d been in a relationship with Gunner Beck at the time of her death – while he was still married, found her body.

Police concluded there was no third-party involvement.

The coroner said that despite Jaysley being three times over the drink-drive limit when she died, he was satisfied she had still intended to take her own life.

Gunner Beck’s mother, Leighann McCready, attended the inquest with her partner and daughter.

Speaking outside court, she said her Jaysley was “bright”, “fantastic at her job” and exactly what the Army was looking for.

Ms McCready said no apology could bring her back and called for the Army to be stripped of the power to conduct its own investigations into harassment and bullying cases.

She said victims often feel like they can’t speak up and that “no one should have to suffer in silence”.

gunner jaysley beck
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Jaysley Beck with her mum

‘It’s weighing me down’

Ms McCready had told the court how her daughter “did not feel safe” as the situation with her line manager intensified, with Ryan Mason sending 3,600 messages in November 2021.

In one reply, she wrote: “This whole falling in love with me… it’s becoming a bit too much, I have just come out of a relationship and I’m just not wanting to be involved in anything like this.

“It’s weighing me down a little bit, I’ll be totally honest with you.”

Jaysley Beck
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Jaysley Beck

The inquest also heard how Gunner Beck had been too afraid to return to her room after the alleged assault by WO Webber, locking herself in her car and making a complaint in the morning.

A colleague said she had been “frightened and in tears” and described her superior allegedly “waiting for a moment for them to be alone” before pinning her down and trying to kiss her.

Ms McCready said her daughter had been angered by the apology letter – which ended by saying his “door was open” for her.

The Army report said this was “possibly a factor that may have influenced her failure to report other events that happened subsequently”.

Its report also highlighted family issues, including bereavement, as playing a part in Gunner Beck’s death – but her family rejects this.

The Army report outlined three “contributory factors”, including:

  • The “significant strain” of a sexual relationship with a married colleague in the last few weeks of her life;
  • A relationship which ended in November 2021 which involved “repeated allegations of unfaithfulness on the part of the boyfriend”;
  • An “unhealthy approach to alcohol, with episodes of binge drinking”.

WO Webber and Mr Mason declined to answer a number of questions at the inquest relating to their alleged behaviour towards Gunner Beck.

George Higgins, a former sergeant, also declined to answer questions about whether his relationship with Gunner Beck had begun when she was a recruit in Harrogate.

Army: ‘We should have done more’

Brigadier Melissa Emmett, head of the army personnel services group, said it accepts failures were made.

“We let her down in so many ways for which we have already apologised, and if I can apologise again, for what it’s worth, I would do,” she said.

“On a personal level, listening to the doubt and the fear that she had, the good encouragement of her friends to report, but the lack of confidence that they had in reporting, and the well-meaning but erroneous actions of the chain of command, I have found personally very grieving.

“We could have, and we should have, done more.”

Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK.

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