The rupture in diplomatic norms has left Ukraine and Europe reeling – as Russia’s full-scale invasion reaches three-year mark
In less than a fortnight, Donald Trump has shredded long-standing security assumptions about American support for Europe, creating a new crisis for Ukraine and leaving the whole continent in greater peril than at any time since the Second World War.
The dramatic unravelling of transatlantic ties comes as Kyiv marks the grimmest of milestones – three years since Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion, with fighting still raging along a vast frontline.
The new US president says he is determined to negotiate a peace deal with the Kremlin, but Ukraine and its European allies are fearful that a failure to prioritise Ukrainian demands will only embolden Moscow and set the stage for Russia to launch a wider European war within a few years.
Adding to this sense of gloom, the signals from the White House are relentlessly bleak.
A woman walks past debris in the aftermath of Russian shelling, in Mariupol, Ukraine. Pic: AP
Mr Trump has already unilaterally spoken to Vladimir Putin by phone, called Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy a “dictator”, and is trying to force Kyiv to sign away hundreds of billions of dollars worth of its natural resources as a kind of payback for past US military support – which had been freely given by Joe Biden to fight Russia’s war.
The unpicking of the security blanket between Europe and the United States – woven from the ashes of two world wars – began with an email to the media on 12 February.
It contained the embargoed comments that Pete Hegseth, the new American defence secretary, was set to make that day at the opening of a meeting between some 50 nations to discuss assistance to Ukraine to fight Russia’s war.
I was among the journalists covering the event at NATO headquarters in Brussels and – presumably like most other defence journalists – had to read and then re-read the text as I could not believe what it said.
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Ukraine getting all land back ‘not realistic’
There were extraordinary reversals in US policy towards Ukraine, including a claim that it is “unrealistic” to believe Kyiv can recapture all its territory from Russia, a ruling out of NATO membership as part of any ceasefire deal with Moscow and saying that US forces would not be deployed on the ground to deter future Russian attacks following a peace deal.
But it was this line from Mr Hegseth that raised the highest eyebrows: “I’m also here today to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States from being the primary guarantor of security in Europe.”
In one sentence, the defence secretary appeared to be confirming the worst fears of his European allies and Canada – that the US, under Mr Trump, no longer views the NATO transatlantic alliance as the bedrock of American and European security.
When he actually addressed the Ukraine Defence Contact Group meeting – a format originally set up and chaired by his predecessor Lloyd Austin, but now led for the first time by the UK Defence Secretary John Healey – Mr Hegseth’s European remarks were slightly softer, saying the US could no longer be “primarily focused on the security of Europe”.
Yet the stark message that European allies and Canada must shoulder a far greater burden of responsibility for their own security and to support Ukraine rather than rely on America – Europe cannot turn “Uncle Sam into Uncle Sucker” was a phrase Mr Hegseth used when speaking subsequently with the media – was heard loud and clear.
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Uncle Sam ‘won’t be Uncle Sucker’
With allies already in a tailspin, the crisis deepened a few hours later as news emerged that Mr Trump had picked up the phone with Russia’s president – the first such call between the leaders of the two countries since before the start of the full-scale war.
The US president described the 90-minute interaction as a “lengthy and highly productive” conversation. Only afterwards, did Mr Trump reach out to Mr Zelenskyy.
The thawing in relations between Washington and Moscow and the new chill in ties between the US and Europe meant tensions were at a record high when top ministers from around the world met for an annual security conference in Munich from 14 to 16 February.
From a European perspective, US vice president JD Vance stole the show for all the wrong reasons, using his outing on the world stage to berate the state of Europe’s democracy, slamming restrictions on free speech and what he described as censorship.
The next-level shock felt by European capitals was palpable. Mr Zelenskyy was the other star turn at the conference.
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Zelenskyy calls for ‘army of Europe’
He used his appearance to underline Kyiv’s position on White House plans for a peace deal with Russia – that no agreement on Ukraine could be made without Ukraine.
He also issued a rallying cry for his European partners to strengthen their defences and build credible European armed forces to better withstand the whims of larger powers.
But the president simultaneously had to confront the reality of Mr Trump, whose administration was ramping up pressure on his government to sign an economic deal with the US that would give away up to half of Ukraine’s natural resources such as minerals and rare earth.
He kept a brave face in Munich after meeting with Mr Vance, Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, and Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, the special envoy for Ukraine and Russia.
But Mr Zelenskyy’s smile started to fade as Mr Rubio and two other top Trump officials then popped up in Saudi Arabia for face-to-face talks with their Russian counterparts.
He was not invited despite planning to be in the region around the same time.
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US and Russia hold talks in Saudi Arabia
While billed as part of an effort to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine, the meeting in Riyadh was also focused on a rekindling of economic ties between Washington and Moscow – to the horror and disbelief of European and Ukrainian allies that have worked hard with Washington for the past three years to impose strict sanctions on Russia.
At the same time, Mr Trump started to become increasingly frustrated with Mr Zelenskyy for – in his mind – refusing to sign the minerals deal.
In a devastating outburst, the American president falsely claimed his Ukrainian counterpart had a 4% public approval rating and suggested Kyiv was to blame for starting the war.
Mr Zelenskyy – who had stayed quiet in the face of previous White House provocations – clearly felt Mr Trump had gone too far.
On 20 February, he retorted that he believed the US leader was living in a “disinformation space”, where falsehoods spread by Moscow were percolating.
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Trump living in ‘disinformation space’
This triggered an even more jaw-dropping rebuke from Washington, with Mr Trump describing his Ukrainian counterpart as a “dictator without elections” and saying he had “better move fast” to secure a peace deal or risk not having a country to lead.
The rupture in diplomatic norms has left Ukraine and wider Europe reeling, while Russia must be laughing.
Now no longer able to rely on Washington, Kyiv needs its European allies to step up.
A trip to Washington DC this week by President Emmanuel Macron of France on Monday, and Britain’s Sir Keir Starmer on Thursday, will be important moments to try to convince Mr Trump that to stand with Ukraine is to be on the right side of history.
But there is little from the past fortnight to indicate that he will heed any advice from European powers that he does not regard as his equal, has repeatedly slammed for insufficient investment in their own militaries and that have – as far as he is concerned – “freeloaded” off American strength when it comes to support for Ukraine and for wider European defence.
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Trump calls Zelenskyy a ‘dictator’
Read more:
Trump says key Ukrainian minerals deal is close
Zelenskyy ‘would quit’ for peace and NATO membership
Rather than returning to being an ally, Mr Trump will likely instead stick to his mantra of “peace through strength” but only on his own terms.
This though raises the risk of more war when it comes to Russia as Mr Putin will surely want to test what else he can take from Europe if the US really is stepping back.
At least 14 people have been killed in an area of Taiwan popular with tourists after Super Typhoon Ragasa lashed the island nation, with Hong Kong and mainland China braced for impact.
The powerful storm – the strongest in years – has forced thousands to flee their homes, with flights cancelled and schools and businesses shuttered as about 70cm (28 inches) of rain has fallen on eastern areas.
At least four more people were reported to have been killed in the Philippines, where nearly 700,000 people were affected by the super typhoon in the main northern region of Luzon.
The deaths in Taiwan were reported in the eastern Taiwanese county of Hualien, which is popular with tourists.
At least 129 people are missing after a town, Guangfu, was flooded by a deluge from a barrier lake which burst its banks on Tuesday afternoon.
Around 60 million tonnes of water was released, the Taiwanese government said, the equivalent of a major reservoir in southern Taiwan.
A man stands near a military vehicle on a road filled with mud brought by flooding in Hualien, Taiwan. Pic: Reuters
Taiwan’s fire department said all the fatalities and missing people are from Guangfu.
One resident, a postman who gave his family name as Hsieh, told Reuters news agency the water hit like a “tsunami” which swept his car into his living room.
Late on Wednesday morning, a new flood warning sounded in Guangfu, where shouts were heard from residents and rescuers of “the flood waters are coming, run fast”.
Elsewhere, Dama, a village of around 1,000 people, has been completely flooded.
Its chieftain, Wang Tse-an, told Reuters many locals are still stranded there, adding: “It’s chaotic now. There are mud and rocks everywhere.”
Regions across Taiwan have sent at least 340 soldiers to Hualien to help rescue efforts.
In Guangfu, troops operating from an armoured personnel carrier to avoid the thick mud on the streets went door-to-door
handing out water and instant noodles.
Ragasa is set to hit China’s Guangdong province, where more than 370,000 residents have been evacuated, on Wednesday.
Hong Kong’s storm level is at its highest level of 10 as people reported being woken by fierce winds in the early hours.
Parts of a pedestrian bridge’s roof were blown away, hundreds of trees were knocked down across the city and more than 30 injured people were treated at hospitals.
A video that showed waves of water crashing through the doors of a hotel and flooding its interiors went viral in the financial hub, where warnings of hurricane-force winds of well over 120mph have been issued.
Donald Trump disparaged the Russian military and backed Ukraine to retake all its occupied territory in an astonishing about-turn on the war.
In a post on Truth Social, made after talks with Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the United Nations in New York, the US president said a return to “the original borders from where this war started is very much an option”.
“I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form,” he wrote.
Mr Trump said “time, patience, and the financial support of Europe and, in particular, NATO” could help Kyv win back lost territory, and said Russia was in “economic trouble”.
He said Moscow had been “fighting aimlessly” for three-and-a-half years – and had it been a “real military power” it would have defeated Ukraine in less than a week.
“This is not distinguishing Russia. In fact, it is very much making them look like ‘a paper tiger’,” he added.
Mr Zelenskyy told Sky News US correspondent Mark Stone it was a “big shift” from his US counterpart.
He later admitted he was surprised by Mr Trump’s comments, telling Fox News’ Special Report he has a better relationship with the president than before.
Read more: Why emboldened Trump has changed his stance on Ukraine
Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the United Nations. Pic: Reuters
Trump’s patience not ‘infinite’
Mr Trump also appeared to pour cold water on his hopes of persuading Vladimir Putin to sign a peace deal.
Speaking to Emmanuel Macron at the UN summit, he said their relationship had turned out to be meaningless.
Just last month, Mr Trump rolled out the red carpet for the Russian president at a summit in Alaska – in a push to expedite the war’s conclusion.
Before returning to the White House, he repeatedly claimed he’d be able to end the conflict in 24 hours.
Speaking at the UN Security Council, his secretary of state, Marco Rubio, admitted ending the war had proven an “extraordinary challenge”.
He said Mr Trump had “worked on it tirelessly”, but warned Russia his patience is not “infinite”.
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Rigby to Trump: Was Putin’s Alaska invite a mistake?
The US president has previously suggested Ukraine will never be able to reclaim all the territory Russia has occupied since seizing the Crimean Peninsula in 2014.
Ukraine has lost large areas of land in the east of the country.
In the Donetsk region, Russia now controls about 70% of the territory. Kyiv’s forces have been pushed back to four cities analysts have dubbed the “fortress belt”.
Moscow has partly annexed three other regions, too: Luhansk in the east, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson further west.
The situation in Ukraine on 19 September
Trump tells NATO to shoot down Russian jets in its skies
Meanwhile, Russia appears to be provoking its neighbours to the west. Last week, Estonia said three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets violated its airspace for 12 minutes before Italian NATO jets escorted them away.
The week before, about 20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace, prompting NATO jets to shoot some of them down and the alliance to beef up its defence of Europe’s eastern flank.
While talking to Mr Zelenskyy at the UN, Mr Trump was asked by reporters whether he thought NATO should shoot down any Russian planes that entered NATO airspace.
“Yes, I do,” Mr Trump replied.
On Truth Social, he said the US would continue to supply weapons to NATO, and it was for the alliance to “do what they want with them”.
Read more:
Trump makes full-throttle assault on UN
Has Trump ‘ended seven wars’?
Mr Trump also suggested the Russian people are not aware of “what is really going on with this war”.
He added: “Most of their money is being spent on fighting Ukraine. Putin and Russia are in big economic trouble and this is the time for Ukraine to act.”
He has called on European and NATO allies to increase economic sanctions on Moscow.
In a joint statement following the president’s comments, G7 foreign ministers said discussions were ongoing about additional economic sanctions on Russia.
As U-turns go, it’s a game-changer.
Donald Trump has pivoted from pressing Ukraine to surrender territory to suggesting it’s able to win all its land back.
This is the man who threw Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy out of the White House in February and brought Russia’s Vladimir Putin in from the cold in Alaska last month.
So, why the handbrake turn from framing negotiations as the most practical outcome to a new-found confidence in Ukraine, when supported by its European neighbours and NATO?
Trump held talks with Zelenskyy at the UN. Pic: Reuters
Firstly, it could be the military and economic reality on the ground. Russia’s paying a high price for the war, both in manpower and finances.
Trump has acknowledged that Moscow is in “big economic trouble”, which strengthens the case for Ukraine prevailing with Western help.
Ukraine’s resilience has also shifted perceptions – the impossible now looking possible if allies remain committed.
Secondly, it could be the influence of allies. European leaders flew to Washington en masse last month to urge caution in dealings with Putin.
European NATO members have stepped up aid to Ukraine, further weakening the President’s rhetoric about America carrying the financial burden.
He’s suddenly aligning himself with European countries, endorsing the shooting down of Russian planes violating their airspace.
Thirdly, it could be more about domestic politics, with the president under bipartisan scrutiny at home over his “softly, softly” approach to Russia.
A tougher national defence posture could help him consolidate support among Republicans, while also appealing to moderates, who regard the defence of Ukraine as a test of national credibility.
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Zelenskyy on Trump’s ‘big shift’ over Ukraine
Trump versus the world
There’s another factor worth considering – Trump’s negotiating tactic. He has a long record of changing position to gain leverage.
Talk of compromise might have been the strategy for getting Ukraine and Russia into talks, but with Russia showing no willingness to compromise, his calculation shifting back to the restoration of Ukraine.
Whatever the reason for his change of heart, and whether it translates into US policy, the last three days have shown an emboldened Trump.
From his declaration of “hate” for his opponents during a memorial service for Charlie Kirk, to his sensational claim to have “found an answer on autism”, to his derision of the UN, he’s unfiltered right now.
Place him in front of a microphone or online, and it’s Trump versus the world.
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