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In less than a fortnight, Donald Trump has shredded long-standing security assumptions about American support for Europe, creating a new crisis for Ukraine and leaving the whole continent in greater peril than at any time since the Second World War.

The dramatic unravelling of transatlantic ties comes as Kyiv marks the grimmest of milestones – three years since Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion, with fighting still raging along a vast frontline.

The new US president says he is determined to negotiate a peace deal with the Kremlin, but Ukraine and its European allies are fearful that a failure to prioritise Ukrainian demands will only embolden Moscow and set the stage for Russia to launch a wider European war within a few years.

Adding to this sense of gloom, the signals from the White House are relentlessly bleak.

A woman walks past debris in the aftermath of Russian shelling, in Mariupol, Ukraine in 2022. Pic: AP
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A woman walks past debris in the aftermath of Russian shelling, in Mariupol, Ukraine. Pic: AP

Mr Trump has already unilaterally spoken to Vladimir Putin by phone, called Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy a “dictator”, and is trying to force Kyiv to sign away hundreds of billions of dollars worth of its natural resources as a kind of payback for past US military support – which had been freely given by Joe Biden to fight Russia’s war.

The unpicking of the security blanket between Europe and the United States – woven from the ashes of two world wars – began with an email to the media on 12 February.

It contained the embargoed comments that Pete Hegseth, the new American defence secretary, was set to make that day at the opening of a meeting between some 50 nations to discuss assistance to Ukraine to fight Russia’s war.

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I was among the journalists covering the event at NATO headquarters in Brussels and – presumably like most other defence journalists – had to read and then re-read the text as I could not believe what it said.

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Ukraine getting all land back ‘not realistic’

There were extraordinary reversals in US policy towards Ukraine, including a claim that it is “unrealistic” to believe Kyiv can recapture all its territory from Russia, a ruling out of NATO membership as part of any ceasefire deal with Moscow and saying that US forces would not be deployed on the ground to deter future Russian attacks following a peace deal.

But it was this line from Mr Hegseth that raised the highest eyebrows: “I’m also here today to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States from being the primary guarantor of security in Europe.”

In one sentence, the defence secretary appeared to be confirming the worst fears of his European allies and Canada – that the US, under Mr Trump, no longer views the NATO transatlantic alliance as the bedrock of American and European security.

When he actually addressed the Ukraine Defence Contact Group meeting – a format originally set up and chaired by his predecessor Lloyd Austin, but now led for the first time by the UK Defence Secretary John Healey – Mr Hegseth’s European remarks were slightly softer, saying the US could no longer be “primarily focused on the security of Europe”.

Yet the stark message that European allies and Canada must shoulder a far greater burden of responsibility for their own security and to support Ukraine rather than rely on America – Europe cannot turn “Uncle Sam into Uncle Sucker” was a phrase Mr Hegseth used when speaking subsequently with the media – was heard loud and clear.

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Uncle Sam ‘won’t be Uncle Sucker’

With allies already in a tailspin, the crisis deepened a few hours later as news emerged that Mr Trump had picked up the phone with Russia’s president – the first such call between the leaders of the two countries since before the start of the full-scale war.

The US president described the 90-minute interaction as a “lengthy and highly productive” conversation. Only afterwards, did Mr Trump reach out to Mr Zelenskyy.

The thawing in relations between Washington and Moscow and the new chill in ties between the US and Europe meant tensions were at a record high when top ministers from around the world met for an annual security conference in Munich from 14 to 16 February.

From a European perspective, US vice president JD Vance stole the show for all the wrong reasons, using his outing on the world stage to berate the state of Europe’s democracy, slamming restrictions on free speech and what he described as censorship.

The next-level shock felt by European capitals was palpable. Mr Zelenskyy was the other star turn at the conference.

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Zelenskyy calls for ‘army of Europe’

He used his appearance to underline Kyiv’s position on White House plans for a peace deal with Russia – that no agreement on Ukraine could be made without Ukraine.

He also issued a rallying cry for his European partners to strengthen their defences and build credible European armed forces to better withstand the whims of larger powers.

But the president simultaneously had to confront the reality of Mr Trump, whose administration was ramping up pressure on his government to sign an economic deal with the US that would give away up to half of Ukraine’s natural resources such as minerals and rare earth.

He kept a brave face in Munich after meeting with Mr Vance, Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, and Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, the special envoy for Ukraine and Russia.

But Mr Zelenskyy’s smile started to fade as Mr Rubio and two other top Trump officials then popped up in Saudi Arabia for face-to-face talks with their Russian counterparts.

He was not invited despite planning to be in the region around the same time.

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US and Russia hold talks in Saudi Arabia

While billed as part of an effort to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine, the meeting in Riyadh was also focused on a rekindling of economic ties between Washington and Moscow – to the horror and disbelief of European and Ukrainian allies that have worked hard with Washington for the past three years to impose strict sanctions on Russia.

At the same time, Mr Trump started to become increasingly frustrated with Mr Zelenskyy for – in his mind – refusing to sign the minerals deal.

In a devastating outburst, the American president falsely claimed his Ukrainian counterpart had a 4% public approval rating and suggested Kyiv was to blame for starting the war.

Mr Zelenskyy – who had stayed quiet in the face of previous White House provocations – clearly felt Mr Trump had gone too far.

On 20 February, he retorted that he believed the US leader was living in a “disinformation space”, where falsehoods spread by Moscow were percolating.

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Trump living in ‘disinformation space’

This triggered an even more jaw-dropping rebuke from Washington, with Mr Trump describing his Ukrainian counterpart as a “dictator without elections” and saying he had “better move fast” to secure a peace deal or risk not having a country to lead.

The rupture in diplomatic norms has left Ukraine and wider Europe reeling, while Russia must be laughing.

Now no longer able to rely on Washington, Kyiv needs its European allies to step up.

A trip to Washington DC this week by President Emmanuel Macron of France on Monday, and Britain’s Sir Keir Starmer on Thursday, will be important moments to try to convince Mr Trump that to stand with Ukraine is to be on the right side of history.

But there is little from the past fortnight to indicate that he will heed any advice from European powers that he does not regard as his equal, has repeatedly slammed for insufficient investment in their own militaries and that have – as far as he is concerned – “freeloaded” off American strength when it comes to support for Ukraine and for wider European defence.

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Trump calls Zelenskyy a ‘dictator’

Read more:
Trump says key Ukrainian minerals deal is close
Zelenskyy ‘would quit’ for peace and NATO membership

Rather than returning to being an ally, Mr Trump will likely instead stick to his mantra of “peace through strength” but only on his own terms.

This though raises the risk of more war when it comes to Russia as Mr Putin will surely want to test what else he can take from Europe if the US really is stepping back.

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Friedrich Merz: German chancellor-in-waiting vows to ‘create unity’ in Europe

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Friedrich Merz: German chancellor-in-waiting vows to 'create unity' in Europe

Friedrich Merz, who is set to become the new German chancellor, has vowed to “create unity” in Europe as it adjusts to the new Trump administration and Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Mr Merz’s task will be complicated by the need to form a coalition with the centre-left Social Democrats of outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz, who will remain in office for the immediate future.

He has repeatedly pledged not to work with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, despite its second-place finish but which is under observation by the country’s intelligence agency for suspected right-wing extremism.

Mr Merz’s conservative Christian Democrats and their Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union, which won with 28.5% of the votes, and the Social Democrats have a combined 328 seats in the 630-seat parliament.

The 69-year-old, who put toughening Germany’s immigration laws at the forefront of the election campaign, said he hopes to complete a deal by Easter.

Experts believe this could prove to be a challenging timescale as the rivals try to find common ground over key policies.

Co-leader of the Social Democrats, Lars Klingbeil, indicated a deal with Mr Merz is not a formality.

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The path to power may not be smooth for Merz

He said: “The ball is in Friedrich Merz’s court. Only the course of any talks will show whether a government can be formed.”

With US President Donald Trump back in the White House and tensions rising over how to resolve the war in Ukraine, Mr Merz wants to unify Europe in the face of challenges from the US and Russia.

“I have no illusions at all about what is happening from America,” he told supporters.

“We are under such massive pressure… my absolute priority now is really to create unity in Europe.”

Read more:
Who is Friedrich Merz – the trained pilot?
The woman at the top of Germany’s far-right AfD party

At a media conference later, he added: “There are three topics we need to talk about. Of course, external and security policy – especially following the statements coming out of Washington.

“It is clear that we as Europeans need to be able to act swiftly. We need to be able to defend ourselves. That is a topic that is a top priority in the next few weeks.”

Mr Merz said he remains “hopeful” of maintaining the transatlantic relationship, but warned if it “is destroyed, it will not only be to the detriment of Europe, it will also be to the detriment of America”.

On the other key issues, he added: “Another important topic is the immigration – that is an area where we have proposals. I suppose the Social Democrats will be prepared to talk to us about this as well.

“The third topic is the economic situation. We have to protect work in the industrial sector in Germany.”

He also earlier used social media to say “Europe stands unwaveringly by Ukraine’s side” and how “we must put Ukraine in a position of strength”.

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Pope Francis ‘resumes some work’ after ‘slight improvement’ in health, Vatican says

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Pope Francis 'resumes some work' after 'slight improvement' in health, Vatican says

Pope Francis’s health has shown a “slight improvement” but he remains in a critical condition, the Vatican has said.

The Pope, 88, has been at Rome’s Gemelli Hospital since 14 February and is being treated for double pneumonia and chronic bronchitis.

In a statement on Monday evening, the Vatican said: “The clinical conditions of the Holy Father, in their critical state, show a slight improvement.

“Even today there were no episodes of asthmatic respiratory crises; some laboratory tests improved.

“Monitoring of mild renal failure is not a cause for concern. Oxygen therapy continues, although with slightly reduced flow and oxygen percentage

“The doctors, considering the complexity of the clinical picture, are prudently not releasing the prognosis yet. In the morning he received the Eucharist, while in the afternoon he resumed work activity.

“In the evening he called the Parish Priest of the Parish of Gaza to express his paternal closeness. Pope Francis thanks all the people of God who have gathered in these days to pray for his health.”

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A gift any Russian leader could only dream of is in Putin’s grasp – a NATO without US military support

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A gift any Russian leader could only dream of is in Putin's grasp - a NATO without US military support

In a strictly military sense, the war in Ukraine is not going so badly for Kyiv. 

Russian territorial gains on the ground have slowed to a crawl since last November for which they are losing, on average, some 1,500 men every day.

They have almost – but still not quite – taken Toretsk. And after months of being on the verge of overwhelming the other key strategic towns of Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk, Russian forces still remain outside them.

Russia’s massive air bombing campaign against the Ukrainian power grid, its critical infrastructure and civilian targets has not brought Kyiv to its knees, though this has been far and away the toughest winter of Russia’s air offensive against Ukraine.

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And in the Black Sea, Ukraine has chased the Russian navy away from its western waters and thus kept its vital shipping routes open from the Odesa ports to the Mediterranean and the Danube Basin. This is a strategic battle Ukraine has unquestionably won.

But with so much material help from Iran, North Korea and China, Russia is obviously prepared to carry on the war, even though on current trends, its own economy will be pretty shaky by the end of this year.

If Western powers, particularly the United States, continued with their previous levels of support, then Ukraine could carry on as well, if it were minded to keep fighting, even with its more limited pool of manpower.

But the battlefield doesn’t matter much any more. The political ground has dramatically shifted under Kyiv and its principal backers in Europe.

The US seems to have suddenly reversed its position under President Trump, and it is driving Ukraine into a very rapid, so-called ‘peace deal’. Serious negotiations have not yet begun, but top US decision-makers seem to want to give Moscow more than it could ever have dreamed of when its “special military operation” in Ukraine went so spectacularly wrong three years ago.

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Three years of war in Ukraine

Moscow now feels it has a very good chance of keeping all its military gains, getting even parts of the Ukrainian regions it hasn’t yet conquered, getting some relief from sanctions, US investment in its economy and re-entry into the G7, which would go back to being a G8.

It will also be making demands on what Kyiv will and will not be allowed to do and what NATO should do to “reassure” Moscow that it won’t have to invade anyone else in an act of self-defence.

Most of all, the US is holding out the tantalizing prospect to Russia that NATO’s “transatlantic dimension” may be militarily finished under the Trump administration. That implies that if the Europeans end up fighting Russia in the future, the US will stand aside.

That prospect is the greatest free gift Washington could ever give Moscow.

Stalin, Khrushchev, Brezhnev, even Gorbachev and Yeltsin, fervently wished for it but never even got close. Putin may feel it is now within his grasp, whatever happens next in Ukraine.

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