Sir Keir Starmer will this week go to Washington to try to help broker a just peace deal for Ukraine with a capricious president who in just a week has unwound a consensus that was born from the ashes of the Second World War and had endured for 70 years.
How the Ukraine-Russia deal is struck will affect not just Ukraine’s security, but the whole of Europe.
It is, in the words of the prime minister, a generational moment – and he is the man who has to try to meet that moment in a week that could prove defining for his premiership.
He also has to use his trip to try to strengthen the trade relationship with the US and persuade Donald Trump to pause any potential tariffs for the UK.
His team have been war gaming all the scenarios, and the prime minister will go with a clear message on what the UK is asking of the US and what it can offer.
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Trump is demanding markedly more from NATO allies, suggesting they should hit 5%, as expectations rise over the UK’s commitments on defence (Number 10 are refusing to comment, for now).
The prime minister will also, in a nod to Trump’s tilt to the Indo-Pacific, reiterate the UK’s commitment to AUKUS, the trilateral security partnership between the US, UK, and Australia.
What Sir Keir and Europe need from Trump is some sort of US security backstop for Ukraine in any deal with Russia.
Up to now, Trump has parroted Vladimir Putin’s playbook, accusing Ukraine of starting the war (untrue) and Volodymyr Zelenskyy being a dictator (also untrue), while also ruling out Kyiv joining NATO and promising to normalise relations with Russia.
From the phone call with Putin, to cutting Europe and Ukraine out negotiations in Saudi Arabia last week, Trump has played the role of a strongman carving up the world according to spheres of influence.
Part of Sir Keir’s job on Thursday will be to persuade Trump that in this vein of “great power transactional diplomacy”, Putin is not his equal and playing into his hands will not secure a stable peace.
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3:57
‘I’m gonna get the war settled’
From MAGA to MEGA
On trade, new ambassador Lord Mandelson is talking up a “MEGA” deal (Make our Economies Great Again) by working up a proposal for increasing the £300bn worth of trade between the UK and US.
The hope is for the prime minister to come away from the White House with a commitment to begin a process of deepening trade and economic ties between London and Washington, which leads to a series of individual trade arrangements rather than a big bang deal that could take years to negotiate.
But if those are the aims, there is plenty of jeopardy for a UK government and the Number 10 team trying to plan a trip against the backdrop of a president they simply can’t predict.
Image: Lord Mandelson has a big job on his hand as the PM’s man in Washington. Pic: PA
Could a rift open between old allies?
When I asked one insider whether they thought Trump’s attacks on Zelenskyy were a ploy to bring Putin to the table, or the president’s real views, they said: “The honest answer is we don’t know and that is part of where we are right now.
“We need to get over there and get a better sense of the president’s red lines.”
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For now, the Number 10 team are focused less on what Trump says and more on what he does, with the understanding that if his starting position really is his endgame, there will be a rift between two old allies.
Sir Keir’s problems were already piling up before Trump’s entry into the White House, and he goes to Washington knowing further instability in Europe – and potential trade barriers with the UK’s second-biggest trading partner – only makes his already difficult task of delivering a “decade of national renewal” harder still.
The stakes couldn’t be higher, or more unpredictable.
Image: Susan Smith and Marion Calder, directors of For Women Scotland, toast the ruling outside the Supreme Court. Pic: PA
Without getting bogged down in the legal technicalities, this whole case centred on two pieces of Westminster legitimation, meaning the Equality Act 2010 and the Gender Recognition Act 2004.
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Those with a gender recognition certificate (GRC) have lived for the last 20 years on the basis that the document they possess changes their sex for “all purposes”.
Later anti-discrimination laws, the Equality Act, stated trans people could be excluded from women-only spaces in some circumstances.
Women’s rights campaigners took the case to court to seek clarity after the Scottish government tried to include trans women in quotas for gender balance on public sector boards.
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1:50
Lord Hodge delivering the ruling
This definitive decision today in London has immediate real-world consequences.
Judges were clear this wasn’t a victory for either side, as trans people will still be protected against discrimination.
But trans leaders say this calls into question their very identity – and to say they are hugely disappointed is an understatement.
One trans woman told me she was “gutted” and that this was an “attack” on her rights.
Image: Pic: PA
Campaign group For Women Scotland gathered in Edinburgh to watch a live stream of the proceedings and claimed victory. There were tears and cheers as they watched the judges deliver their judgment.
They say this gives absolute clarity about who can enter single-sex spaces like sports clubs, hospital wards and prisons across Britain.
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2:13
Campaigners in Edinburgh celebrating the ruling
Sir Keir Starmer’s government issued a statement saying this brings “confidence” and that they remain fully in favour of single-sex spaces.
John Swinney, Scotland’s first minister, had a more muted reaction, simply saying his government “accepts” the ruling.
In 2022, the SNP government under Nicola Sturgeon passed laws making it easier for people to change their gender. It was ultimately blocked by the UK government and has been sitting on a shelf getting dusty ever since.
Since coming to power a year ago, Mr Swinney has tried to distance himself from the gender politics of the past few years given how much it bogged down his predecessors.
There was an excruciating exchange with journalists last year when he was asked whether a man can get pregnant. He delivered a blunt “no” in response despite his lawyers arguing almost the opposite in court.
With a Holyrood election looming next year, it is completely conceivable that any suggestion of resurrecting Scotland’s controversial gender reforms is over in light of today’s court decision.
Mr Swinney won’t be taking questions today, I’m told, but it will be top of the list for his next appearance.
The sentence of triple murderer Nicholas Prosper, who killed his family and was planning a school shooting in Luton, has been referred to the Court of Appeal.
The referral has been made under the Unduly Lenient Sentence scheme, the Attorney General’s Office said on Wednesday.
Prosper, 19, pleaded guilty to the murders of his mother, Juliana Falcon, 48, and his siblings, Kyle Prosper, 16, and 13-year-old Giselle Prosper, at Luton Crown Court in February.
Image: (L-R) Giselle Prosper, Juliana Falcon, and Kyle Prosper were found dead in their flat in Luton in September. Pic: Bedfordshire Police
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0:44
Witness calls 999 after triple murder
Their bodies were found at their flat in the town in September last year.
He was sentenced to 49 years in prison in March.
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0:30
Prosper sentenced to minimum 49 years
Passing sentence, High Court judge Mrs Justice Cheema-Grubb told Luton Crown Court that her duty to the public was met with the 49-year minimum term, rather than using “the sentence of last resort” and jailing him for the rest of his life.
Prosper, 19, who craved notoriety, planned to carry out a mass shooting at St Joseph’s Catholic Primary School, where he and his siblings had been pupils, he admitted to police.
Image: Luton triple murderer pretends wood plank is gun
Image: Nicholas Prosper seen buying a weapon on CCTV. Pic: Bedfordshire Police
The Solicitor General has referred Prosper’s sentence to the Court of Appeal, where “it will be argued that Prosper ought to have been given a whole life order,” a spokesman for the Attorney General’s Office said.
Defendants aged 18 to 20 have been liable to receive whole-life orders in exceptional circumstances since rules were changed in 2022.
But none of the orders imposed since then have been on criminals in that age bracket.
The judge said that for defendants over the age of 21, whole-life orders can be considered in cases involving two or more murders with a significant degree of premeditation or planning, or where one child is killed with similar pre-planning.
Mrs Justice Cheema-Grubb said: “The court may arrive at a whole-life order in the case of an 18 to 20-year-old only if it considers that the seriousness of the combination of offences is exceptionally high, even by the standard of offences which would normally result in a whole-life order.”
Image: Nicholas Prosper walking to the school on the morning of his planned attack. Pic: Bedfordshire Police
Image: Prosper obtained the shotgun by deception. Pic: Bedfordshire Police
She pointed to a joint submission of counsel that the lengthy finite term she imposed was severe enough because his case was not “of the utmost gravity where the sentence of last resort must be imposed on an offender who was 18 at the time and is 19 today”.
The risk he posed to the public was met with a life sentence, she said.
Justice Cheema-Grubb told the court she would not impose a whole-life order because Prosper was stopped from carrying out the school shooting, having murdered his family earlier than he intended after his mother woke up.
He also pleaded guilty as soon as the charges were put to him after psychiatric reports had been completed, and he was 18 at the time of his crimes, which is at the lowest end of the age bracket for whole-life terms.
The Unduly Lenient Sentence scheme allows any member of the public to ask for certain Crown Court sentences to be reviewed, and if necessary, the case will be referred to the Court of Appeal.
Image: Police officers finding a shotgun belonging to Nicholas Prosper.
Pic:Bedfordshire Police /PA
Conservative shadow justice minister Dr Kieran Mullan, who referred the sentence to the Attorney General’s Office under the scheme on the day Prosper was jailed, said at the time that not handing down a whole-life sentence “makes a mockery of the justice system and is an insult to the victims”.
At his trial, jurors heard Prosper, who was obsessed with violence and mass shootings, wanted to be known as “the world’s most famous school shooter of the 21st century”.
Police believe he killed his family when his mother confronted him after finding a shotgun he had bought using a fake certificate.
His scheme was eventually foiled by officers who spotted him in the street immediately after the murders and arrested him.
The loaded shotgun was found hidden in bushes nearby, along with more than 30 cartridges.
The family of a man who committed murder during an escape from a secure mental health unit have told Sky News they were “failed” by the trust that was meant to be caring for him.
Joshua Carroll is currently waiting to be sentenced for the murder of Headley Thomas, known as Barry, after beating him to death in a park in Trafford, Manchester, in September 2022.
At the time of the attack, Joshua was in the care of Greater Manchester Mental Health Trust (GMMH). He was being treated as an inpatient at Park House, a unit which has now closed down.
Joshua’s mum and sister say he escaped from the unit 21 times – and they repeatedly complained to the trust and asked for help.
Image: Headley Thomas, who was known as Barry
Leanne Carroll, Joshua’s sister, told Sky News: “The night it happened, Joshua had come to my house. And it was just a normal ‘oh Joshua has escaped from hospital again’. Nothing appeared any different.”
She says they didn’t find out about what had happened until Joshua was arrested weeks later – and “everything fell apart from there”.
Image: Julie and Leanne Carroll
“My heart broke,” said Joshua’s mum, Julie Carroll. “It’s just a horrible, horrible situation.”
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Joshua had been diagnosed with conditions including schizoaffective disorder, and had been in and out of inpatient care for around 15 years, his family said.
They showed me more than 20 pages of complaints and responses from GMMH about his repeated escapes, dating back eight years before the murder.
After Joshua’s fourth escape from Park House, his family asked for him to be moved to another unit, saying they were concerned about security.
This didn’t happen, with the trust citing capacity issues. His family complained once again about his escapes just five weeks before the murder, in August 2022.
“We are very, very angry and disappointed,” said Julie. “You think if your child is in hospital, and they are very poorly, that they are going to be looked after – they will be safe and they will be secure. But that wasn’t the case for Josh.”
Image: Julie Carroll says her “heart broke” after her son’s crime came to light
Although Joshua was convicted of murder, Leanne says his family hold GMMH partly responsible.
“If you had done your job properly – none of this would have happened,” she said. “Two families wouldn’t have been destroyed and so many hearts wouldn’t have been broken.”
Since 2022, GMMH has been served with several Section 29A warning notices by the Care Quality Commission. These are issued when the commission decides a service needs to make significant improvements, and there is a risk of harm.
In the case of GMMH, their concerns included “ward security systems not consistently keeping people safe”.
Dr John Mulligan is a clinical psychologist for GMMH, working in the community for the early intervention in psychosis service, and a representative for the union Unite.
Image: Dr John Mulligan
He and his colleagues have been going on strike repeatedly across the past seven months, saying they just don’t have the staffing levels they need to keep people safe.
“Thankfully, violent incidents among our service users are quite rare, they are much more likely to be the victims of violence and aggression,” he said. “But serious incidents are happening regularly. Far too regularly.
“It’s very upsetting for staff and for patients and families.”
Image: Joshua Carroll . Pic: Greater Manchester Police
Salli Midgley, chief nurse at the Greater Manchester Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust said: “On behalf of GMMH, we express our heartfelt condolences to Headley Thomas’s loved ones at this very sad time.
“Our thoughts and sympathies remain with everyone who has been affected by this most devastating incident. We are deeply sorry that it happened while Joshua Carroll was under our care.
“Under the trust’s new leadership, we have been working closely with NHS England, our commissioners and the CQC to create better, safer and well-led services for all.”
Image: The Carroll family asked for Joshua to be moved to a different unit after his escapes
She continued: “A huge amount of progress has already been made but we know we still have a lot to do to improve our services.
“As part of this work, we are currently carrying out an in-depth investigation into the care and treatment provided to Mr Carroll, and the circumstances leading to Mr Thomas’ death, the findings of which will be shared with NHS England.
“We are unable to comment further on this case whilst the investigation is ongoing.”
Barry Thomas’s family told Sky News mental health is a very serious issue – but they believe Joshua Carroll tried to “play down his actions”.
They said: “Let’s all remember that a life was taken. Our brother, father, and uncle. The evidence the police gathered was in plain sight for all to see.
“We, the family, would like to thank all the police involved for the work they have done, in bringing justice for Barry.”