The jailing of Mike Amesbury for 10 weeks for assault means Sir Keir Starmer potentially faces his first by-election test since becoming prime minister.
Officially, the 55-year-old former Labour MP for Runcorn and Helsby now faces a recall petition, but realistically he’s under enormous pressure to resign without delay.
“Local residents in the Runcorn and Helsby constituency deserved better, and we look forward to them getting the representation they deserved in the future with a new MP,” said a party spokesperson.
However, if Amesbury appeals against his sentence, as it’s being suggested he may, that would delay a by-election as a writ can’t be moved unless appeals are exhausted, or he stands down voluntarily.
Amesbury held the Cheshire seat with a seemingly healthy 14,696 majority at the July 2024 general election. But in a potential nightmare for Sir Keir, it was Reform UK – not the Conservatives – in second place.
Image: Nigel Farage’s Reform UK leads the opinion polls. Pic: Reuters
And so predictably it was Reform’s chairman Zia Yusuf who led calls from opponents for Amesbury to resign, followed by a handful of Tory backbenchers – but not by Kemi Badenoch yet.
“The great people of Runcorn deserve far better than waiting six weeks for a recall petition to take place,” said Mr Yusuf. “We call on Mike Amesbury to do the honourable thing and resign immediately.”
The risk of humiliation by Mr Farage may deter Labour big hitter Jonathan Ashworth – one of five Labour MPs defeated in July last year – from gambling on a quick return to Westminster in this seat.
The Conservatives appear to be in disarray over a potential by-election. Sky News can reveal that party HQ last week invited applications to be Tory candidate, with a deadline fast approaching.
“We are writing to invite applications for Runcorn and Helsby,” said a letter from the party’s candidates team. “We are particularly keen to see applications from people with links to the constituency.
“If you are eligible to stand and interested in applying, please apply through the Microsoft Form here and apply by no later than Tuesday 25th February at 12pm.”
Image: Suspended Labour MP Mike Amesbury. Pic: Reuters
When could a by-election happen?
A recall petition happens if an MP is jailed or receives a suspended sentence of a year or less. It lasts six weeks and if 10% of electors sign it, there’s a by-election – though the recalled MP can stand.
The last MP to be jailed was Tory Imran Ahmad Khan, former MP for Wakefield, who was sentenced to 18 months after being found guilty of sexually assaulting a 15-yar-old boy. Labour won that by-election.
Although Sir Keir and the Labour high command have acknowledged since Amesbury pleaded guilty that a by-election in Runcorn and Helsby was almost inevitable, the party faces a dilemma over the timing of a poll.
Labour’s statement looking forward to a new MP suggests the party favours a speedy by-election, without the delay of a recall petition, rather than waiting until the local elections on 1 May or even later.
But there are dangers in a quick poll, as Sir Keir will recall. He was advised to rush the Hartlepool by-election in 2021, with disastrous results, and he has admitted he considered quitting after that humiliating defeat.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer had a good record in by-elections when Labour were in opposition. Pic: Reuters
The numbers in Runcorn and Helsby last July were Labour on 22,358 votes (52.94%), Reform 7,662, (18.14%), Conservatives 6,756, (16%), Greens 2,715, (6.43%) and Liberal Democrats 2,149, (5.09%).
Runcorn is on the southern bank of the River Mersey and has expanded as a new town since 1964, and dominates the constituency with a population of 61,000. There are two smaller towns, Frodsham and Helsby.
Amesbury became MP for the processor seat of Weaver Vale in 2017. He was a shadow minister for work and pensions under Jeremy Corbyn, and for housing, communities and local government under Sir Keir until 2022.
But what about his style ‘prince’? Some want that ditched too.
It’s a complicated but not impossible process. Andrew could, of course, just stop using it voluntarily.
Some want him to give up his home, too. For a non-working royal, the stately Royal Lodge, with its plum position on the Windsor Estate, is an uncomfortable optic.
With the reputation of the monarchy at risk, William does not want to appear weak. He’s putting loyalty to “the firm” firmly above his familial relationships.
Prince Andrew has always strongly denied the allegations, and restated on Friday: “I vigorously deny the accusations against me”. Sky News has approached him for comment on the fresh allegations set out in the Mail on Sunday.
But with Virginia Giuffre’s tragic death and posthumous memoir due out on Tuesday, Buckingham Palace will be braced for more scandal.
When Andrew gave up his titles, there was certainly a sense of relief.
There is now a sense of dread over what else could emerge.
Sky News’ royal commentator has explained why Prince Andrew has not given up being called a prince – while another expert has said “the decent thing” for him to do would be “go into exile” overseas.
Andrew announced on Friday that he would stop using his Duke of York title and relinquish all other honours, including his role as a Royal Knight Companion of the Most Noble Order of the Garter.
However, he will continue to be known as a prince.
Royal commentator Alastair Bruce said that while Andrew’s other honours and titles were conferred to him later in life, he became a prince when he was born to Elizabeth II while she was queen.
He told presenter Kamali Melbourne: “I think […] that style was quite special to the late Queen,” he said. “And perhaps the King, for the moment, thinks that can be left alone.
“It’s a matter really for the King, for the royal household, perhaps with the guidance and advice of government, which I’m sure they are taking.”
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2:49
Who pushed Andrew to drop his titles?
Since Andrew’s announcement, there has been speculation over whether any further measures will be taken – and one author has now called for him to “go into exile”.
More on Prince Andrew
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Andrew Lownie, author of The Rise And Fall Of The House Of York, said: “The only way the story will go away is if he leaves Royal Lodge, goes into exile abroad with his ex-wife, and is basically stripped of all his honours, including Prince Andrew.”
Royal Lodge is the Windsor mansion Andrew lives in with his ex-wife, Sarah Ferguson, who has also lost her Duchess of York title.
Image: Andrew and his former wife continue to live on the Windsor estate. Pic: Reuters
Mr Lownie continued: “He makes out he’s an honourable man and he’s putting country and family first. Well, if he is, then the optics look terrible for the monarchy. A non-working royal in a 30-room Crown Estate property with a peppercorn rent.
“He should do the decent thing and go. And frankly, he should go into exile.”
Mr Lownie added if the Royal Family “genuinely want to cut links, they have to put pressure on him to voluntarily get out”.
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1:11
Windsor’s take on Prince Andrew
Andrew’s decision to stop using his titles was announced amid renewed scrutiny of his relationship with paedophile Jeffrey Epstein, and fresh stories linked to the late Virginia Giuffre.
Ms Giuffre, who was trafficked by Epstein, alleged she was sexually assaulted by Andrew on three occasions – which he has always vigorously denied.
Bereaved families whose loved ones took their own lives after buying the same poison online have written to the prime minister demanding urgent action.
Warning: This article contains references to suicide
The group claims there have been “multiple missed opportunities” to shut down online forums that promote suicide and dangerous substances.
They warn that over 100 people have died after purchasing a particular poison in the last 10 years.
Among those who have written to Downing Street is Pete Aitken, whose daughter Hannah was 22 when she took her own life after buying the poison from a website.
Hannah was autistic and had ADHD. She was treated in six different mental health hospitals over a four-year period.
He said: “Autistic people seem to be most vulnerable to this kind of sort of poison and, you know, wanting to take their lives.”
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4:05
Pete Aitken speaking to Sky News
Sky News is not naming the poison, but Hannah was able to buy a kilogram of it online. Just one gram is potentially fatal.
“There’s this disparity between the concentration required for its legitimate use and that required for ending your life. And it seems quite clear you could make a distinction,” Mr Aitken said.
Analysis from the Molly Rose Foundation and the group Families and Survivors to Prevent Online Suicide Harms says at least 133 people have died because of the poison. It also says coroners have written warnings about the substance on 65 separate occasions.
The report accuses the Home Office of failing to strengthen the regulation of the poison and says not enough is being done to close dangerous suicide forums online.
Lawyers representing the group want a public inquiry into the deaths.
In a joint letter to the prime minister, the families said: “We write as families whose loved ones were let down by a state that was too slow to respond to the threat.
“This series of failings requires a statutory response, not just to understand why our loved ones died but also to prevent more lives being lost in a similar way.”
The group’s lawyer, Merry Varney, from Leigh Day, said: “The government is rightly committed to preventing deaths through suicide, yet despite repeated warnings of the risks posed by an easily accessible substance, fatal in small quantities and essentially advertised on online forums, no meaningful steps have been taken.”
Image: Hannah’s dad is one of the family members to have signed the letter
A government spokesperson said: “Suicide devastates families and we are unequivocal about the responsibilities online services have to keep people safe on their platforms.
“Under the Online Safety Act, services must take action to prevent users from accessing illegal suicide and self-harm content and ensure children are protected from harmful content that promotes it.
“If they fail to do so, they can expect to face robust enforcement, including substantial fines.”
They added that the position is “closely monitored and reportable under the Poisons Act, meaning retailers must alert authorities if they suspect it is being bought to cause harm”.
“We will continue to keep dangerous substances under review to ensure the right safeguards are in place,” they said.
Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK.