Nvidia is scheduled to report fourth-quarter financial results on Wednesday after the bell.
It’s expected to put the finishing touches on one of the most remarkable years from a large company ever. Analysts polled by FactSet expect $38 billion in sales for the quarter ended in January, which would be a 72% increase on an annual basis.
The January quarter will cap off the second fiscal year where Nvidia’s sales more than doubled. It’s a breathtaking streak driven by the fact that Nvidia’s data center graphics processing units, or GPUs, are essential hardware for building and deploying artificial intelligence services like OpenAI’s ChatGPT. In the past two years, Nvidia stock has risen 478%, making it the most valuable U.S. company at times with a market cap over $3 trillion.
But Nvidia’s stock has slowed in recent months as investors question where the chip company can go from here.
It’s trading at the same price as it did last October, and investors are wary of any signs that Nvidia’s most important customers might be tightening their belts after years of big capital expenditures. This is particularly concerning in the wake of recent breakthroughs in AI out of China.
Much of Nvidia’s sales go to a handful of companies building massive server farms, usually to rent out to other companies. These cloud companies are typically called “hyperscalers.” Last February, Nvidia said a single customer accounted for 19% of its total revenue in fiscal 2024.
Morgan Stanley analysts estimated this month that Microsoft will account for nearly 35% of spending in 2025 on Blackwell, Nvidia’s latest AI chip. Google is at 32.2%, Oracle at 7.4% and Amazon at 6.2%.
This is why any sign that Microsoft or its rivals might pull back spending plans can shake Nvidia stock.
Last week, TD Cowen analysts said that they’d learned that Microsoft had canceled leases with private data center operators, slowed its process of negotiating to enter into new leases and adjusted plans to spend on international data centers in favor of U.S. facilities.
The report raised fears about the sustainability of AI infrastructure growth. That could mean less demand for Nvidia’s chips. TD Cowen’s Michael Elias said his team’s finding points to “a potential oversupply position” for Microsoft. Shares of Nvidia fell 4% on Friday.
Microsoft pushed back Monday, saying it still planned to spend $80 billion on infrastructure in 2025.
“While we may strategically pace or adjust our infrastructure in some areas, we will continue to grow strongly in all regions. This allows us to invest and allocate resources to growth areas for our future,” a spokesperson told CNBC.
Over the last month, most of Nvidia’s key customers touted large investments. Alphabet is targeting $75 billion in capital expenditures this year, Meta will spend as much as $65 billion and Amazon is aiming to spend $100 billion.
Analysts say about half of AI infrastructure capital expenditures ends up with Nvidia. Many hyperscalers dabble in AMD’s GPUs and are developing their own AI chips to lessen their dependence on Nvidia, but the company holds the majority of the market for cutting-edge AI chips.
So far, these chips have been used primarily to train cutting-edge AI models, a process that can cost hundreds of millions dollars. After the AI is developed by companies like OpenAI, Google and Anthropic, warehouses full of Nvidia GPUs are required to serve those models to customers. That’s why Nvidia projects its revenue to continue growing.
Another challenge for Nvidia is last month’s emergence of Chinese startup DeepSeek, which released an efficient and “distilled” AI model. It had high enough performance that suggested billions of dollars of Nvidia GPUs aren’t needed to train and use cutting-edge AI. That temporarily sunk Nvidia’s stock, causing the company to lose almost $600 billion in market cap.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will have an opportunity on Wednesday to explain why AI will continue to need even more GPU capacity even after last year’s massive build-out.
Recently, Huang has spoken about the “scaling law,” an observation from OpenAI in 2020 that AI models get better the more data and compute are used when creating them.
Huang said that DeepSeek’s R1 model points to a new wrinkle in the scaling law that Nvidia calls “Test Time Scaling.” Huang has contended that the next major path to AI improvement is by applying more GPUs to the process of deploying AI, or inference. That allows chatbots to “reason,” or generate a lot of data in the process of thinking through a problem.
AI models are trained only a few times to create and fine-tune them. But AI models can be called millions of times per month, so using more compute at inference will require more Nvidia chips deployed to customers.
“The market responded to R1 as in, ‘oh my gosh, AI is finished,’ that AI doesn’t need to do any more computing anymore,” Huang said in a pretaped interview last week. “It’s exactly the opposite.”
Perplexity AI logo is seen in this illustration taken January 4, 2024.
Dado Ruvic | Reuters
Perplexity AI, the developer of a popular artificial intelligence search engine, is close to raising a $50 million venture fund focused on early-stage AI startups, CNBC has learned.
The company will be an anchor investor in the fund, but most of the capital is coming from outside limited partners, according to a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be named because the information is confidential.
The two general partners of the fund are also coming from elsewhere. They are Kelly Graziadei and Joanna Lee Shevelenko, who have been running early-stage fund f7 Ventures, the person said.
Perplexity has been in the middle of the generative AI boom that began in late 2022 with the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT. CNBC reported in November that the company was in the final stages of raising $500 million in funding at a $9 billion valuation. Perplexity is viewed as a potential competitor to Google as more consumers turn to AI to search for information online.
Last month, Perplexity also made a bid to merge with TikTok U.S. as the social media platform faces a potential U.S. shutdown.
The company sees a potential investing advantage when it comes to startups because roughly 80,000 developers are plugged into its network, so Perplexity gets visibility into who is using its application programming interface (API) and who is most active in their consumption, the person said.
Perplexity’s founders and investors are putting money into the fund, and some of the company’s commitment is in the form of stock, the source said.
— CNBC’s Samantha Subin contributed to this report.
CEO of Apple Tim Cook poses as Apple holds an event at the Steve Jobs Theater on its campus in Cupertino, California, U.S. September 9, 2024.
Manuel Orbegozo | Reuters
Apple shareholders on Tuesday rejected a request to abolish its Inclusion & Diversity program, signaling that investors still see value in the company’s diversity programs.
The proposal, submitted by the National Center for Public Policy Research, was voted down at Apple’s annual shareholder meeting.
The proposal pushed Apple to cease its diversity, equity and inclusion, or DEI, and it cited CNBC reporting that found companies such as Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Zoom were rolling back their diversity programs. It requested that Apple get rid of its program, policies, department and goals, arguing that diversity programs may discriminate and that the compliance risk threatens Apple’s bottom line.
“The risks to Apple stemming from continuing to push these divisive and value-destroying agendas is only increasing in light of President Trump’s recent executive order focusing the Department of Justice on rooting out illegal discrimination being carried out in the name of DEI,” NCPPR Executive Director Stephen Padfield said at the meeting. “The vibe shift is clear. DEI is out, and merit is in.”
Apple opposed the measure, saying it’s already compliant with employment laws and that the proposal inappropriately seeks to micromanage the company’s programs.
“Our strength has always come from hiring the very best people and then providing a culture of collaboration, one where people with diverse backgrounds and perspectives come together to innovate and create something magical for our users,” Apple CEO Tim Cook said.
Despite opposing the measure, Cook did warn that the legal landscape around diversity issues may force Apple to make changes.
Even before President Donald Trump was elected in November, diversity programs have been scaled back across the corporate world. A key driver was a 2023 Supreme Court ruling that found affirmative action in college admissions was unconstitutional.
Apple has inclusion programs ranging from internal support groups, features for people with disabilities and research efforts to ensure company products and services don’t display racial bias, according to the company’s website.
Nearly two-thirds of the company’s workforce is male, and 35% is female, according to the company’s website, which cites figures from 2022. The website also states that 42% of employees are white, and 30% are Asian.
Others proposals
Apple shareholders also shot down outside proposals to create reports on the company’s ethical AI data usage, the costs and benefits of different approaches to fight child exploitation and charitable giving.
Investors also shot down a proposal from the National Legal and Policy Center that focused on its OpenAI partnership. It suggested that Apple’s deal with OpenAI may contradict its focus on privacy, and urged the company to prepare a report about the risks of using private or unlicensed data to train artificial intelligence.
The company opposed the proposal, saying it already provides information about its AI data privacy practices.
Shareholders did approve Apple’s slate for board of directors, its auditor and the company’s executive compensation in an advisory vote.
That included Cook’s annual compensation. He was paid $74.61 million in salary in 2024, stock awards and bonuses, up from $64.21 million in 2023. In documents provided to shareholders, Apple touted that its market cap had risen by over $3 trillion during Cook’s tenure.
At the meeting, Cook talked about a $500 billion earmark for U.S. spending announced on Monday that was hailed by Trump.
“The U.S. is our home, and we’re deeply committed to the country’s future,” he said.
Additionally, Cook said Apple is planning to increase its dividend annually and will update investors in May about the increase this year.
“We’ve also paid out more than $165 billion in dividends, including $15.3 billion in just the last four quarters,” Cook said.
The Hims app arranged on a smartphone in New York, US, on Wednesday, Feb. 12, 2025.
Gabby Jones | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Shares of Hims & Hers Health fell 28% on Tuesday, a day after the telehealth company released fourth-quarter results that disappointed on gross margin and sparked concerns about the future of its weight loss business.
Hims & Hers reported $481 million in revenue for the quarter, up 95% from $246.6 million during the same period last year. Net income climbed to $26.01 million, or 11 cents per share, from $1.25 million, or 1 cent per share, a year prior.
But the company’s gross margin, or the profit left after accounting for the cost of goods sold, was 77%, disappointing analysts who were expecting 78.4%, according to StreetAccount.
In the company’s quarterly call with investors on Monday, CFO Yemi Okupe said the scaling of the company’s GLP-1 offering and its strategic pricing options were to blame.
Hims & Hers in May started prescribing compounded semaglutide, the active ingredient in Novo Nordisk‘s GLP-1 weight loss medications Ozempic and Wegovy. Compounded drugs can be produced when brand-name treatments are in shortage, but the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announced Friday that the shortage of semaglutide injection products has been resolved.
As a result, Hims & Hers said Monday it will likely stop offering compounded semaglutide on its platform after its first quarter, though some consumers may still be able to access personalized doses if clinically applicable. The GLP-1 offering generated more than $225 million in revenue for the company in 2024.
“We will have to start notifying customers in the coming month or two that they will need to start looking for alternative options on the commercial dosing,” Hims & Hers CEO Andrew Dudum said on the call.
Going forward, the company said its weight loss offerings will primarily consist of its oral medications and the injectable medication liraglutide, which it plans to introduce on its platform this year.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a note Tuesday the company’s report was “a lot to digest.” They maintained their equal weight rating on the stock and said they were surprised by the magnitude of the company’s 2025 guidance.
Hims & Hers said it expects between $2.3 billion to $2.4 billion in revenue this year. The company added that it expects its weight loss offerings to generate at least $725 million in revenue, excluding contributions from compounded semaglutide.
“We remain positive on the long-term opportunity, highlighting the company’s attractive platform and solid track record that differentiate it relative to digital health and DTC comps,” the Morgan Stanley analysts said.
Bank of America analysts said that while the company might have some success transitioning patients to its other weight loss offerings like its oral medications, it will face a “significant execution risk” as supply of brand-name GLP-1s increases.
Additionally, the analysts said Hims & Hers’ competitors will likely shift marketing dollars back to other products for conditions like erectile dysfunction and hair loss, which could put pressure on its advertising costs. They reiterated their underperform rating on the stock.
“Overall, we do not see upside to 2025 revenue guidance and think the beat and raise story is likely over in the near-term,” the Bank of America analysts wrote in a note Tuesday.
Citi analysts meanwhile said they think Hims & Hers revenue guidance is “aspirational,” as it would require “significant acceleration” in the use of its other weight loss products. They said they are less confident about the success of these offerings.
Even so, the analysts increased their price target on the stock to $27 from $25.
“We await a more compelling entry point and more details on growth ex-GLP-1s before we become more constructive,” they wrote in a Monday note.