Major internal investigation reveals IDF failures in October 7 attack
The Israel Defence Forces has admitted the attacks by Hamas on October 7 2023 were “a complete failure” of Israeli security and the result of many years of planning and deception by the Gaza-based militant group.
Announcing some of the findings from a major internal investigation, the Israeli military said “the IDF failed in its mission to protect people” and it was “one of the greatest failures” in the military’s history.
Nobody in the Israeli security establishment knew of, or predicted, the attacks and the force stationed on the border was the minimum required for everyday threats.
The primary focus at the time was on the threat from Iran and Hezbollah. The inquiry concluded that those actors were aware of Hamas’s plans but probably didn’t know the exact timing of the attacks.
Gaza was seen as a secondary threat and while Hamas was considered an illegitimate governing body of Gaza, there was no effort to develop an alternative.
The inquiry, which is the result of tens of thousands of hours of work by the IDF Southern Command, found as many as 5,600 terrorists broke into Israel in three waves.
On October 7 2023, 4,694 mortars and rockets were fired from Gaza into Israel, and 1,320 people were killed and 251 taken hostage.
As the IDF battled to regain control of southern Israel the same day, some of its commanders were forced to use google maps and mobile phones to communicate and co-ordinate.
Israel’s Iron Dome system intercepting rockets launched from the Gaza Strip on October 7. Pic: Reuters
The majority of killings and kidnappings occurred during the first two waves of attacks, between 6.29am and 9am on that Saturday morning.
Many Palestinians who entered Gaza in the third wave, during the afternoon, were from other terror organisations or “a mob taking advantage” rather than Hamas fighters trained for the attack.
In the chaos, the Israeli air force struggled to distinguish between Hamas fighters and Israeli civilians. The IDF accepts there were some deaths caused by friendly fire but haven’t elaborated how or where.
By 5pm, there were still hundreds of Hamas fighters spread out along the so-called Gaza envelope of Israeli communities, many in open areas.
It’s thought they planned to reach deeper into Israel, including Ashkelon and key air bases.
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What happened on 7 October 2023
Intelligence assessments at the time believed that Hamas didn’t want a full-scale war and lacked the capability to launch one. IDF officials believed there would be early warnings if an attack was imminent, and the strategy was to “maintain the threat” rather than neutralise it.
Based on that, officials said soldiers “were addicted to the precise intelligence information” and failed to challenge the assumptions internally.
Although there were some unusual indications an attack was under way overnight, such as the activation of Israeli SIM cards inside Gaza, duty officers didn’t think it was time-critical and further investigation was needed.
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Israeli soldiers working to secure residential areas after Hamas’s attack. pic: Reuters
Hamas activity in a specific area was dismissed as a training exercise. After consultation with senior commanders in the middle of the night, it was decided to hold a situational assessment early in the morning. The attack happened before that took place.
The scale and brutality of the attack took the IDF by surprise and their defensive strategies, including a vastly expensive subterranean wall, proved ineffective. The barrier was designed to stop mass protests and limited infiltration but not a large-scale attack. Forces along the border had been reduced because of other requirements on the Lebanon border and in the West Bank, and the IDF had too much confidence in the barrier defences.
Through various intelligence sources, including material found in Gaza, it’s now understood that Hamas’s leader at the time, Yahya Sinwar, first conceived the idea in November 2016. A plan to attack Israel was approved in July 2019.
During those years, Hamas deceived Israel, convincing leaders it wanted economic prosperity rather than conflict.
A short war between the two in 2021 didn’t inflict as much damage on Hamas infrastructure and capabilities as Israel believed.
Hamas was close to launching the attacks on three occasions during 2022 but decided not to for unknown reasons. They eventually did so to take advantage of a Jewish religious holiday in 2023.
The inquiry has also compiled 41 separate findings of battles in specific kibbutzim, military bases and key roads. Those details are being presented to the individual communities over the coming days.
The Israeli government has repeatedly rejected calls for a State Commission of Inquiry, saying the time is not yet right because of the ongoing war.
Critics of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu say he is avoiding personal responsibility for his role as Israel’s leader at the time.
The fast-moving developments on Trump’s Ukraine peace deal are dominating the G20 summit in South Africa, as European leaders scramble to put together a counter-proposal to the US-Russia 28-point plan and reinsert Ukraine into these discussions.
European countries are now working up proposals to put to President Trump ahead of his deadline of Thursday to agree a deal.
Ukraine is in a tight spot. It cannot reject Washington outright – it relies on US military support to continue this war – but neither can it accept the terms of a deal that is acutely favourable to Russia, requiring Ukraine to give up territory not even occupied by Moscow and reducing its army.
Overnight, the UK government has reiterated its position that any deal must deliver a “just and lasting peace”.
Ukraine war latest: Kyiv to discuss ending war in talks in Switzerland
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Keir Starmer calls for growth plan at G20
The prime minister, who spoke with E3 allies President Macron of France, Chancellor Merz of Germany and President Zelenskyy of Ukraine on the phone on Friday, is having more conversations today with key partners as they work out how to handle Trump and improve this deal for Ukraine.
One diplomatic source told me allies are being very careful not to criticise Trump or his approach for fear of exacerbating an already delicate situation.
Instead, the prime minister is directing his attacks at Russia.
Read more:
Trump’s 28-point Ukraine peace plan in full
Analysis: We could all pay if Europe doesn’t guarantee Ukraine’s security
Prime Minister Keir Starmer attends a plenary session on the first day of the G20 Leaders’ Summit. Pic: Reuters
“There is only one country around the G20 table that is not calling for a ceasefire in Ukraine and one country that is deploying a barrage of drones and missiles to destroy livelihoods and murder innocent civilians,” he said on Friday evening.
“Time and again, Russia pretends to be serious about peace, but its actions never live up to its words.”
Pic: AP
On the Trump plan, the prime minister said allies are meetin on Saturday “to discuss the current proposal on the table, and in support of Trump’s push for peace, look at how we can strengthen this plan for the next phase of negotiations”.
Strengthening the plan really means that they want to rebalance it towards Ukraine’s position and make it tougher on Russia.
“Ukraine has been ready to negotiate for months, while Russia has stalled and continued its murderous rampage. That is why we must all work together with both the US and Ukraine, to secure a just and lasting peace once and for all,” said the prime minister.
“We will continue to coordinate closely with Washington and Kyiv to achieve that. However, we cannot simply wait for peace.
“We must strain every sinew to secure it. We must cut off Putin’s finance flows by ending our reliance on Russian gas. It won’t be easy, but it’s the right thing to do.”
Pic: AP
Europeans hadn’t even seen this deal earlier in the week, in a sign that the US is cutting other allies out of negotiations – for now at least.
Starmer and other European leaders want to get to a position where Ukraine and Europe are at least at the table.
There is some discussion about whether European leaders such as Macron and Meloni might travel to Washington to speak to Trump early next week in order to persuade him of the European and Ukrainian perspective, as leaders did last August following the US-Russian summit in Alaska.
But Sky News understands there are no discussions about the PM travelling to Washington next week ahead of the budget.
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