Awards season is often predictable. Last year, our crystal ball reading ahead of Oscars night was pretty much perfect – Oppenheimer cleaned up at every ceremony going, and it all started to get a bit Groundhog Day.

While it’s true some Oscars this year are all but dead certs, for others – and most excitingly, it’s the big ones – there are fairly large question marks. Which is much more fun.

Here’s the verdict from Sky News entertainment team journalists Katie Spencer, Claire Gregory, Bethany Minelle and Gemma Peplow – who will win, and who they think should win. Inspired by Conclave, we’ve held a secret(ish) ballot.

BEST FILM

The nominees
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Perez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked

Who will win: Conclave – II; Anora – II
Who should win: The Brutalist – I; Anora – III

“The best picture is a battle of head v heart for me. Conclave is great, but Anora is so fresh, exciting and unexpected as a best picture nominee I would love to see it take the top prize. I just don’t think it will beat those scheming priests.”
Arts and entertainment editor Claire Gregory

“Conclave is solid, compelling and classy, with a great ensemble cast. I think the Academy may secretly have resented being made to sit through three-and-a-half hours of anything, even if The Brutalist is a cinematic masterpiece. But if it was me voting, The Brutalist should win – a masterful lesson in storytelling.”
Arts and entertainment correspondent Katie Spencer

“Anora is a rags-to-riches indie story with a twist and is worthy of all the plaudits it is getting. I think it will win and should win – it has a cracking cast, skilled direction, a propulsive storyline, and humour to boot. Even excessive Take That playtime didn’t take off the shine.”
Arts and entertainment reporter Bethany Minelle

“A few years ago, Conclave, a thriller about the election of a new pope, would have had this in the bag over screwball anti-fairytale Anora, which follows a young sex worker who marries the son of a Russian oligarch. But, the Academy embraced the madcap Everything Everywhere All At Once in 2023 and after the seriousness of Oppenheimer last year, plus the momentum Anora has gained, I reckon voters could be in the mood for something a little less traditional again.”
Culture and entertainment reporter, Gemma Peplow

BEST ACTOR

The nominees
Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
Timothee Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice

Who will win: Adrien Brody – II; Timothee Chalamet – II
Who should win: Colman Domingo – III; Adrien Brody – I

“Adrien Brody has put in the work here for his role in The Brutalist, and the fact that after three-and-a-half hours of screentime you are not sick of his face is down to his skill alone. He will win and should win – give the man his second Oscar already.”
BM

“I’ve a hunch Timothee Chalamet’s SAG win reflects who the wider Academy has voted for. If you think back to previous winners it tends to be those who have acted AND done something extra, such as play the piano, endured hours of prosthetics, learned to dance etc. I reckon Timmy’s five years spent mastering the guitar, harmonica and sounding like Bob Dylan for his performance in A Complete Unknown will get him across the line.”
KS

“I’m bored of the Adrien/Timmy debate and would frankly rather see Colman Domingo beat them both. For me, he’s one of the most consistently brilliant actors working today and Sing Sing deserves more attention than it’s got this awards season.”
CG

“I also think Chalamet’s SAG win could be the indicator here. The Academy loves a transformation – see consecutive ‘real-life’ wins for Gary Oldman (Winston Churchill) in 2018, Rami Malek (Freddie Mercury) in 2019, and Renee Zellweger (Judy Garland) in 2020. However, I vote Domingo; not least because his co-star Clarence Maclin, who plays himself in the prison drama Sing Sing, should also have been nominated in the supporting category. Sing Sing is a beautiful story of hope and redemption and Domingo’s is an understated but brilliant performance. He’s also always the best-dressed man at any ceremony, so his outfit will no doubt deserve its moment, too.”
GP

BEST ACTRESS

The nominees
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascon – Emilia Perez
Mikey Madison – Anora
Demi Moore – The Substance
Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here

Who will win: Demi Moore – IIII
Who should win: Demi Moore – I; Mikey Madison – III

“This one is too close to call. The Academy has traditionally loved a female ingenue – although Sky News research revealed last year that the age gap between male and female acting winners is definitely closing – which would favour Mikey Madison; and yet, Demi Moore’s real-life story arc has also won her a legion of supporters this year. Those arguments are a little reductive and should not take away from the real reasons why both would be worthy winners – for two very different but equally excellent performances – but it would be wrong to say performance is the only thing taken into account when it comes to voting.”
GP

“Like Academy members no doubt, I’m a sucker for the comeback narrative – and Moore winning an Oscar after being written off as a “popcorn” actress is too irresistible a story arc, even if deep down, while she’s excellent in The Substance, I’m not sure she really gives the best performance of the year.”
CG

“Moore has to win for throwing everything she had at this role. Stripping off, grossing us out, donning prosthetics, getting elbows-deep in blood; she was not afraid to go there. Aside from that, I think cinema-goers and her peers are very happy to have her back again. But, Madison, for the last scene of Anora alone – without saying a word we see how damaged her character really is – she would be a worthy winner.”
KS

“Madison was the surprise best actress winner at the BAFTAs, and at just 25 she’s proved herself an actress to be reckoned with. She deserves to follow up with an Oscar – although Moore is a force to be reckoned with.”
BM

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The nominees
Yura Borisov – Anora
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice

Who will win: Kieran Culkin – IIII
Who should win: Kieran Culkin – III; Yura Borisov – I

“Kieran Culkin is funny, charismatic and has picked up so much support this award season because people have enjoyed hearing what he has to say when he wins. That should not detract from the fact that he’s also brilliant in A Real Pain. So much of his character is about what’s going on inside his head and how he manages to bring out that inner turmoil is seriously impressive. For the record, Guy Pearce, Jeremy Strong and Edward Norton would also all be worthy winners for reminding us what brilliant character actors they all are.”
KS

“Hopefully Pearce, Strong, Norton and Borisov have perfected their ‘I’m so happy for you’ faces by now, as Culkin is pretty much a dead cert. This is one of the most impressive shortlists in recent years, with all five actors demonstrating how incredible performances don’t always have to be the ones right in the spotlight.”
GP

“I’ve changed my mind a few times about supporting actor this year but I think ultimately Kieran Culkin deserves the Oscar – and let’s face it, he’s bound to give the best speech.”
CG

“One performance on the best supporting list stands out for me: Yura Borisov’s sensitive and understated portrayal of a henchman with a heart is a true support role and executed to perfection. He may not take the prize, but he deserves to.”
BM

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The nominees
Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande – Wicked
Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez

Who will win: Zoe Saldana – IIII
Who should win: Zoe Saldana – II; Felicity Jones – I; Ariana Grande – I

“Zoe Saldana should have been nominated for best actress and not supporting for her role in Emilia Perez, as she clearly has more screentime than anyone else in that movie. That said, she’s great in it so deserves a win – even if it is in the wrong category.”
CG

“Saldana is the best thing in a bit of a ropey film. She’s well respected and I think the Academy will be giving her an Oscar for her career more generally, rather than Emilia Perez. But, I would vote for Felicity Jones, who took on such a physical role in The Brutalist, demonstrating the cost of the Holocaust on her character’s body; you believe the pain of her osteoporosis. Both frail and unbelievably strong at the same time.”
KS

“Saldana is a great actress and gives a great performance in Emilia Perez, and following Karla Sofia Gascon’s fall from grace she’s likely to be the only cast member taking home a prize. One of the highest-grossing female lead actresses in history, and with work spanning an impressive range of genres, she will win and should win.”
BM

“After cleaning up throughout awards season, this is Saldana’s to lose. I’m not a fan of Emilia Perez as a film (controversy aside, musicals are not for me, and this one is particularly jarring), but it would be a shame for Saldana to miss out due to the other noise surrounding it all. Having said that, I think Ariana Grande would be a deserving winner. Wicked was not for me (see above re musicals) but her performance is incredibly charismatic, and anyone who has seen her impeccable celebrity impressions will know she has real comedic chops. She shows them off perfectly in Wicked.”
GP

BEST DIRECTOR

The nominees
Sean Baker – Anora
Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
James Mangold – A Complete Unknown
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance

Who will win: Brady Corbet – II; Sean Baker – II
Who should win: James Mangold – I; Coralie Fargeat – III

“Nothing more complicated here than I’m a fan of James Mangold and I would love to see him win. I suspect it will go to Brady Corbet though as he has been doing well elsewhere and pulled off something pretty impressive in getting The Brutalist made – let alone getting audiences to sit for three-and-a-half hours to watch it.”
CG

“Corbet stuck to his guns, making his film his way, refusing to compromise on his vision. It might be long but the pacing is perfect and Corbet is thoroughly deserving. But, not only did Coralie Fargeat refuse to water down her ideas for The Substance, she actually injected herself with a needle full of the fluorescent liquid to get the shots she wanted – and she personally manned a firehose to spray an entire theatre with fake blood. That’s what you call going the extra mile.”
KS

“Sean Baker has been the darling of awards season so far and should follow up his growing pile of wins with his first Oscar for Anora. But, The Substance is a film that takes you to places you never thought you would see, pushing the limits so far you will question your sanity (or Fargeat’s). A fearless director, and the only woman to make it into the category this year, she deserves the win – and to become only the fourth woman in the Oscars’ 97-year history to take home the prize.”
BM

“The Substance was not perfect; I felt Moore’s character, Elisabeth Sparkle, was underdeveloped, and the ending was a little too much for me. Having said that, Fargeat’s maximalist, stylised approach, with bold visuals and that pulsating, migraine-inducing score, genuinely made me feel – stress, mainly, and fearful anticipation for what was about to come. You are thinking about it long after it’s finished. For that reason, I would give this one to Fargeat – although I would not be disappointed to see Baker win, either (and he probably will).”
GP

Check the Sky News website from Sunday event to follow the entire event on our Oscars live blog