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From midnight on Monday, Donald Trump’s tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China came into effect. But what are they and what do they mean for the UK?

The second-time president claims the tariffs – taxes on goods imported into the US – will help reduce illegal migration and the smuggling of the synthetic opioid fentanyl to the US.

In a White House speech on Monday, Mr Trump confirmed 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada and the doubling of tariffs on Chinese imports – from 10% to 20%. Canadian energy will be levied at 10%, he added.

China responded immediately, with 15% taxes on food and agricultural products it sends to the US – worth around $21bn (£16.5bn).

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also retaliated with extra tariffs worth $100bn (£78.7bn) over the next 21 days. Mexico has not yet announced any countermeasures.

Both Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Mr Trudeau have promised extra troops at their US borders to combat illegal migration, in a bid to stop an all-out trade war with Mr Trump.

But he appears determined to go even further, targeting other countries, including those in the European Union, which he claims was created to “screw” the US.

Will Trump target UK with tariffs?

No new US tariffs have been announced on the UK.

And Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s successful White House visit raised hopes Britain could avoid Mr Trump’s recent wave of them.

“I think there’s a very good chance that in the case of these two great, friendly countries, I think we could very well end up with a real trade deal where the tariffs wouldn’t be necessary. We’ll see,” the president told reporters afterwards.

Mr Trump is largely concerned with trade deficits – when you import more goods from another country than you send there in return.

The US does not have a trade deficit with Britain – so UK ministers have previously suggested this could be good news for avoiding new levies.

Ed Conway analysis:
How UK could avoid Trump’s trade war by accident

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How Trump’s tariffs will affect Britain

Why tariffs could cost you – even if Trump spares UK

But even if no tariffs are put on UK exports, consumers will still be impacted by the wider trade war.

Mr Trump’s Monday announcement sparked an immediate downturn in US and European stocks, with share prices for car manufacturers, including General Motors, which produces a lot of its trucks in Mexico, falling in particular.

Economists believe that tariffs will raise costs in the US, sparking a wave of inflation that will keep interest rates higher for longer. The US central bank, the Federal Reserve, is mandated to act to bring inflation down.

More expensive borrowing and costlier goods and services could bring about an economic downturn in the US, the world’s largest economy – and global movements could hit the UK.

Forecasts from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) predict lower UK economic growth due to higher global interest rates.

It estimates UK GDP (a measure of everything produced in the economy) could be between 2.5% and 3% lower over five years and 0.7% lower this year.

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Some economists argue, though, that the UK might not be hurt too badly – even if Mr Trump imposes tariffs on British goods.

The UK doesn’t send a lot of goods to the US, exporting its banking and consulting services to them instead, which do not tend to be subject to tariffs.

However, the Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy thinktank said a 20% across-the-board tariff, impacting the UK, could lead to a £22bn reduction in exports in the UK’s US exports, with the hardest-hit sectors including fishing and mining.

How will it impact US consumers?

The flags of Mexico, the United States and Canada. Pic: Reuters
Image:
The flags of Mexico, the United States and Canada. Pic: Reuters

Although the Trump administration said the 10% Canadian energy tariff will boost domestic energy production, there are likely to be wide-ranging negative consequences for the US consumer.

Economists argue supply chains will be disrupted and businesses will suffer increased costs – leading to an overall rise in prices.

Both Mexico and Canada rely heavily on their imports and exports, which make up around 70% of their Gross Domestic Products (GDPs), putting them at even greater risk from the new tariffs.

China only relies on trade for 37% of its economy, having made a concerted effort to ramp up domestic production, making it relatively less vulnerable.

Avocados – and other fruit and veg

Avocados from Mexico at a store in the US. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Avocados from Mexico at a store in the US. Pic: Reuters

The US imports between half and 60% of its fresh produce from Mexico – and 80% of its avocados, according to figures from the US Department of Agriculture.

Canada also supplies a lot of the US’s fruit and vegetables, which are mainly grown in greenhouses on the other side of the US border.

This means new tariffs will quickly be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.

The US still grows a considerable amount of its own produce, however, so the changes could boost domestic production.

But economists warn an overreliance on domestic goods will see those suppliers increase their prices too.

Petrol and oil prices

Oil and gas prices are likely to be impacted – as Canada provides around 60% of US crude oil imports and Mexico roughly 10%.

According to the US Energy Information Administration, the US received around 4.6 million barrels of oil a day from Canada last year – and 563,000 from Mexico.

Most US oil refineries are designed specifically to process Canadian products, which would make changing supply sources complex and costly.

Oil tariffs could see an increase in fuel prices of up to 50 cents (40p) a gallon, economists have predicted.

Cars and vehicle parts

General Motors plant in Ramos Arizpe, Mexico. Pic: Reuters
Image:
General Motors plant in Ramos Arizpe, Mexico. Pic: Reuters

The US car industry is a delicate mix of foreign and domestic manufacturers.

The supply chain is so complex that car parts and half-finished vehicles can sometimes cross the US-Mexico border several times before they are ready for the showroom.

If this continues, the parts will be taxed every time they move countries, which will lead to an even bigger increase in prices.

As a result, Gustavo Flores-Macias, public policy professor at Cornell University, says “the automobile sector, in particular, is likely to see considerable negative consequences”.

To mitigate this, General Motors has said it will try to rush through Mexican and Canadian exports – while brainstorming how to relocate manufacturing to the US.

Mr Trump said of this dilemma on Monday: “They’re going to have a tariff. So what they have to do is build their car plants, frankly, and other things in the United States, in which case they have no tariffs.”

Electronic goods

When Mr Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imported washing machines during his first term in 2018, prices suffered for years afterwards.

China produces a lot of the world’s consumer electronics – and smartphones and computers specifically – so tariffs are likely to have a similar effect on those devices.

The Biden administration tried to legislate to promote domestic production of semiconductors (microchips needed for all smart devices) – but for now, the US is still heavily reliant on China for its personal electronics.

This will mean an increase in prices for electronics consumers globally – unless tech companies can relocate their operations away from Beijing.

Boost for the steel industry

The sector that could actually benefit from the Trump tariffs is the steel and aluminium industry.

It has long been lobbying the US government to impose levies on foreign suppliers – claiming they are dominating the market and leaving domestic factories without enough business and at risk of closure.

Steel imports increasing in price could therefore promote domestic production – and possibly save some of the plants.

But when Mr Trump increased steel tariffs during his first term, prices also increased – which business leaders said forced them to pass on costs and left them struggling to complete construction projects on budget.

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Stamp duty changes knock house prices, lender says

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Stamp duty changes knock house prices, lender says

Lower stamp duty thresholds introduced at the start of the month are being widely blamed for the biggest monthly decline in UK house price growth since August 2023, according to a major lender’s measure.

Nationwide’s latest report on the housing market showed a 0.6% decline in April, taking the rolling annual rate of growth down to 3.4% from the 3.9% determined in March.

The bigger than expected decline has been widely explained by a slowdown in activity prompted by the stamp duty changes, which affected buyers in England and Northern Ireland at the beginning of the month.

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They had the greatest effect in England, where the changes included first-time buyers paying stamp duty on property costing £300,000 – up from £450,000 – while the surcharge for second homes also increased, by two percentage points, to 5%.

There was a rush to complete sales in March ahead of the deadline, which is also likely to have influenced prices.

But Nationwide said that April marked the first decline, in its measure, since August last year.

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The lender’s chief economist, Robert Gardner, said: “The softening in house price growth was to be expected, given the changes to stamp duty at the start of the month. Early indications suggest there was a significant jump in transactions in March, with buyers bringing forward their purchases to avoid additional tax obligations.

“The market is likely to remain a little soft in the coming months, following the pattern typically observed following the end of stamp duty holidays. Nevertheless, activity is likely to pick up steadily as summer progresses, despite wider economic uncertainties in the global economy, since underlying conditions for potential home buyers in the UK remain supportive.”

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He pointed to the pace of wage growth continuing to outstrip inflation, coupled with low unemployment and retreating mortgage rates.

Rising expectations for a Bank of England interest rate cut next week, with a growing potential for more in the months ahead, are also forecast to bolster activity.

Prices have historically been supported by weak availability but estate agents have reported growth in seller listings as spring has got under way.

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Donald Trump celebrates 100 days in office with campaign-style rally

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Donald Trump celebrates 100 days in office with campaign-style rally

Donald Trump has celebrated the 100th day of his second term with a campaign-style rally in Michigan.

During his 90-minute speech the US president mocked Joe Biden, falsely claimed he won the 2020 presidential election and defended his decision to impose tariffs on countries around the world.

Speaking in front of electronic screens reading “100 days of greatness”, Mr Trump attacked “radical left lunatics”, briefly took on a heckler and boasted about his administration’s “mass deportation” efforts.

“Removing the invaders is not just a campaign pledge,” he said. “It’s my solemn duty as commander-in-chief. I have an obligation to save our country.”

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He played a video of migrants his administration claims are gang members arriving at a notorious prison in El Salvador, with those in the crowd cheering the images of deportees having their heads shaved.

During his speech, during which he called up several of his top team to the stage, Mr Trump claimed his administration has delivered “most profound change in Washington in nearly 100 years”.

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100 days of Donald Trump

Mr Trump also briefly touched on tariffs, saying China, which is facing tariffs of 145%, “has taken more jobs from us than any country has ever taken from another country”.

President Donald Trump arrives to speak after his first 100 days in office.
Pic: AP/Alex Brandon
Image:
Pic: AP

But he said his tariffs did not mean Beijing and Washington cannot “get along” and said he thought a trade deal with China was near, adding: “But it’s going to be a fair deal.”

“I think it’s going to work out,” he says. “They want to make a deal. We’re going to make a deal. But it’s going to be a fair deal.”

Donald Trump. Pic: AP
Image:
Donald Trump speaking in Michigan. Pic: AP

Donald Trump dances at the end of his rally. Pic: Reuters
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Mr Trump dances at the end of his rally. Pic: Reuters

He claimed his administration had “already ended inflation”, but last month the Bureau of Labor Statistics said while inflation slowed in March over the past year, it had in fact risen 2.4%.

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‘You haven’t seen anything yet’

Mr Trump, who has frequently criticised Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell in recent weeks, said: “Interest rates came down, despite the fact that I have a Fed person who’s not really doing a good job, but I won’t say that. I want to be very nice. I want to be very nice and respectful to the Fed.

“You’re not supposed to criticise the Fed. You’re supposed to let him do his own thing. But I know much more than he does about interest rates, believe me.”

Mr Trump also defended his administration’s steep tariffs on cars and car parts, hours after he signed an executive order aimed at easing the impact of his tariffs on US carmakers.

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“We’re here tonight in the heartland of our nation to celebrate the most successful first 100 days of any administration in the history of our country,” Mr Trump said.

He later added: “We’ve just gotten started. You haven’t even seen anything yet.”

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Ian King: The people and events that defined my 11 years at Sky News

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Ian King: The people and events that defined my 11 years at Sky News

It’s 6.25pm on Monday 2 June 2014 and my heart is racing.

After 20 years as a national newspaper journalist, plus a few years of working in the City before that, I am about to learn whether I can cut it as a television presenter.

I’d done plenty of broadcast journalism over the years – for BBC Radio Five Live’s Weekend Business and Wake Up To Money, BBC Radio Four’s Today programme and regular appearances on Sky News – but these were as a guest pundit or, in media jargon, what is known as the “presenter’s friend”.

This was different. Sky News had entrusted me to step into the sizeable shoes of Jeff Randall, its influential business presenter from September 2007 to March 2014.

After four or five rehearsals using Jeff’s old scripts, under the tutelage of experienced director Neil Hunter and with colleagues Dafydd Rees, Katie Mandel and Hannah Capella acting as guests, I was deemed ready.

Broadcasting from Sky’s original City Studio, on the 15th floor of the iconic Gherkin building on St Mary Axe, I awaited Neil’s cue before uttering the introductory words:

Ian King Live was first broadcast in April 2014 from the Gherkin building in the City of London.
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Ian King Live was first broadcast from the Gherkin building in the City of London

“From the heart of the City, this is Ian King Live.”

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That first half hour show whizzed by: our guests were Dorothy Thompson, chief executive of power generator Drax; Clive Efford, the shadow minister for sport; and Lily Cole, the model and actress. Not bad on a slow news day although during the programme, overseen by my first producer Peter Hoskins, we also broke news that Frank Lampard would be leaving Chelsea.

The adrenalin was still pumping after the show but abated somewhat after John McAndrew, then executive editor and director of content at Sky News, called to declare it “a bloody brilliant start”.

Other guests that week included Andy Griffiths, UK chief executive of Samsung; Ed Balls, the shadow chancellor; Sir Tom Hunter, the billionaire entrepreneur and Tom Crotty, director at the chemicals giant Ineos.

Sir Terry Leahy
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Sir Terry Leahy was among the early guests on Ian King Live

The following week our guests included Sir Terry Leahy, the former Tesco chief executive, giving his first public comments on the accounting black hole recently disclosed by the supermarket; Paul Pester, the TSB chief executive, giving his first broadcast interview ahead of the bank’s stock market flotation; Keith Cochrane, chief executive of the FTSE 100 engineer Weir Group; Justin King, in his final broadcast interview as chief executive of Sainsbury’s and James Quincey, then head of Coca-Cola’s European business but now its global chairman and chief executive. We were up and running.

Now, some 11 years on and after more than 2,000 editions of Ian King Live (the show was rechristened Business Live with Ian King at the end of June 2023), Sky News and I are parting company.

Ian often took his show on the road, broadcasting from trading floors to farms and fishing ports
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Ian often took his show on the road, broadcasting from trading floors to farms and fishing ports. Pic: Martin Kimber

The worlds of business, markets and economics have changed immeasurably in that time. In April 2014, when I joined Sky News, Walmart was the world’s biggest company. It is now only the 15th largest in the S&P 500 – dwarfed by tech giants Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Nvidia. Reflecting that increase in importance, US companies now make up around 65% of global stock market capitalisation, compared with just 52% then.

Mark Carney was governor of the Bank of England, David Cameron was prime minister and George Osborne was chancellor; in the US, Barack Obama was president; Jack Lew was US Treasury secretary and Janet Yellen was chair of the Federal Reserve. It all seems such a long time ago now.

The central bank chief with the hardest role back in April 2014, though, was Mario Draghi at the European Central Bank.

Although Ireland and Portugal were about to exit the bailout packages they received at the height of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis, there was still a sense that the fire had not quite been extinguished, which was why the ECB’s main policy rate was still zero. The Bank of England and the Fed still had interest rates at close to zero, too, with the latter becoming the first major global central bank to tighten monetary policy in December 2015.

So there was a real sense of crisis still in the air and, over the subsequent decade and a bit, very little has changed. The 2016 Brexit referendum led to some spectacular gyrations in the value of UK equities, bonds and the pound: the day after I did my first live broadcast – from the trading floor at Monex, a stone’s throw from the Bank of England – at 5.30am and was still broadcasting 11 hours later.

Mark Carney
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Mark Carney, now Canada’s prime minister, was at the helm of the Bank of England ahead of, and after, the EU referendum in 2016

A few months later, Donald Trump was elected for the first time, with markets rattled by his instigation of a trade war with China soon afterwards.

Then, in 2020, came COVID and, for a few months, it felt as if I was never off the air, bringing news first of the market turmoil that accompanied the lockdowns and then, later, the financial responses to the pandemic from governments, central banks and businesses alike.

By then, having relocated initially to the ‘Baby Shard’ in 2017, Sky’s City Studio had moved again, this time to Fleet Place, close to the Old Bailey. Everyone will have their own memories of lockdown, suffice it to say, going into a deserted City every day was a weird and depressing experience. Not as depressing, though, as interviewing distraught business owners weeping at what the lockdowns were doing to their livelihoods and those of their employees.

Some people, even some in the media industry, disparage business news as being somehow distanced from the human condition. They do not know what they are talking about.

Michael O'Leary. Pic: Reuters
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Michael O’Leary, Ryanair’s boss. Pic: Reuters

The post-COVID bounce back in late 2021 and early 2022 was great fun to report on. Animal spirits, especially in the US, were back. But then, in September 2022, came Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini budget and the eventual departure of both him and Liz Truss.

The latter, incidentally, was one of the more surprising interviews I did at Sky News.

While in the post of justice secretary, she appeared on the programme on the evening of Philip Hammond’s autumn statement in November 2016 and, in response to one particularly tricky question on the public finances, replied: “I don’t know.”

That episode serves to remind just how many changes of personnel we have had during the last 11 years. Past and present chancellors I interviewed at Sky News included Nigel Lawson, Norman Lamont, Ken Clarke, Philip Hammond and Rachel Reeves.

The Bank of England has proved rather more stable although I still interviewed three governors past and present: Lord King, Mark Carney and Andrew Bailey.

Companies too have undergone frequent changes of leadership. During the last 11 years I have interviewed three different chief executives of Tesco, Sainsbury’s and BP, two each from – to name a few – Rio Tinto, Centrica, Land Securities, Lloyds Banking Group, Marks & Spencer, GlaxoSmithKline, BAE Systems, National Grid, British Airways, John Lewis Partnership, Prudential, easyJet, Greggs and RBS/NatWest.

Few have had the same chief executive for the entire period but two CEOs who have remained in place throughout are easily among the most outstanding of their generation. One is Sir Pascal Soriot, the French genius who helped AstraZeneca stave off an unwanted takeover bid from Pfizer, before building the drugmaker into the UK’s most valuable company.

The other is Michael O’Leary of Ryanair, a man with a rare talent for judging customer demand and for ruthlessly exploiting gaps in the market, even though some may cavil at his communications style.

And now, sadly, it is over.

Thank you to the thousands of guests who submitted themselves to interview over the years and to colleagues past and present. While the presenter is the only person the viewers see on air, TV is a huge team effort, with producers, directors, runners, lighting and sound technicians and make-up artists all contributing.

Above all, thank you to Sky News viewers from around the world and especially those who would get in touch with feedback. It has been a pleasure and a privilege appearing on screens on your laptops, mobile devices, trading floors, gyms, hotels and, even now, living rooms.

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