Europe’s battle for power spurs evolution of a new ecosystem for energy-hungry firms
Electric grid is seen in Krakow Poland as Polish government lifts cup in electricity prices what is expected to rise inflation once more – January 18,2025. Poland has one of the highest inflations in Europe. (Photo by Dominika Zarzycka/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
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The boom in artificial intelligence, a pressing need for more data centers and the energy transition story — particularly in transportation — are all spurring demand for electricity, and the existing power infrastructure is struggling to keep up.
Businesses are facing five to eight-year wait times to connect to Europe’s ageing and strained electricity grids, experts told CNBC, as the emergence of new areas of demand drives an unprecedented rise in permit requests for power. According to the IEA, at least 1,500 gigawatts of global clean energy projects have been stopped or delayed because of a lack of grid connections and about $700 billion of grid investment is needed for countries to meet their green goals.
Data centers, the large facilities that house servers for computing processes and often require huge amounts of power, are the “primary director” of that growing competition to connect to the grid, said Diego Hernandez Diaz, partner at McKinsey.
He told CNBC that clients have quoted wait times of up to eight years to connect to the grid.
“There are certain transmission system operators in Europe, that are already facing two, three or more folks all attempting to interconnect to the same node at the same time. … There is a literal queue within individual connection points to see who gets to connect first,” he explained.
Hernandez, whose work focuses on electro-intensive industries, said that over the last 18 months, nearly all of his work has focused on data centers, a sector that he expects to grow at an annual compound growth rate of 20% over the next six years. Demand for the facilities required to train large language models (LLMs) is expected to continue its exponential increase as tech giants race to dominate in AI.
Energy management firm Schneider Electric warned in a January report that Europe faces a looming power crunch, with three to five-year waiting lists for grid connections in energy-constrained regions.
We’re going from a situation where you have one application or two applications per year, in some countries to 1,000.
Steven Carlini
Chief advocate of AI and data center
“It’s kind of a race,” Steven Carlini, chief advocate of AI and data centers at Schneider Electric, told CNBC. “You have all these companies that are trying to deploy as much capacity as they can. But it’s constrained by the number of GPUs [graphics processing units] and the available power and the permitting.”
“We’re going from a situation where you have one application or two applications [to connect to the grid] per year, in some countries, to 1,000,” Carlini said.
It’s not just the amount of investment needed — but also the speed with which it can be deployed — which will be key to addressing the issue, McKinsey’s Diaz said. He also pointed to the growing complexity of the work of high-voltage grid operators and the example of Germany, which needs to go from building 400 kilometers of power lines a year to 2,000 kilometers.
Diaz sees the competition to connect to the grid “either maintaining or intensifying” in 2025.
Jerome Fournier, director of innovation at subsea cable manufacturer Nexans, said his firm has a “huge” order backlog in the range of seven-to-10 billion euros ($7.28 billion-$10.40 billion). Nexans’ cables are used to transmit electricity generated by wind and solar farms, and to supply power to homes and businesses.
“Everybody’s considering: do we still have some room in our plans to manufacture other projects?” he said.
Fournier told CNBC that firms like Nexans should also keep slots available for smaller projects such as interconnections for offshore wind turbines. “You’ve got to have the right balance between the load of the plans, the profitability and this type of electrification,” he said.
A new power ecosystem
Power constraints are leading data center operators to evolve their own “ecosystem of power backup,” according to Schneider Electric’s Carlini.
In the future, data centers are expected to be at the center of that grid ecosystem, particularly if they are able to generate their own power with small modular reactors — mini nuclear reactors that produce electricity.
Battery storage and strategic charging are also becoming increasingly important, Carlini said. These systems allow for the temporary storage of energy from the power grid to provide extra backup.
The CEO of power solutions provider AVK, Ben Pritchard, said some European countries are facing large, 100-megawatt grid connection requests of a size that they’ve never seen before.
He advocates for transition-linked energy solutions such as the use of microgrids, which are a separate islanded power system.
In Norway, they’re trialing flexible connection agreements where customers limit their connection to the grid based on certain conditions, Beatrice Petrovich, senior energy and climate analyst at think tank Ember, highlighted. This allows them to adjust their energy usage depending on how the grid is faring at certain times.
Ember also called for the implementation of rules on what it calls “anticipatory” grid investments. These would allow electricity grid operators to plan in a forward-looking way, taking into account the market trends of key technologies, such as growth in renewables and battery storage, Petrovich explained.
Countries that move forward with improving legislation on enabling firms to have a fully decarbonized energy stack will be the “winner of the race,” putting forward a more “friendly ecosystem” around data centers, AVK’s Pritchard said.
Ultimately, a bottleneck in the grid “encourages people to think differently, and when people are encouraged to think differently, they’re more open to different solutions. That, I think, is teeing up for the market to shift quite significantly,” said Pritchard.
Modest EU growth
Despite a growing need for power from some new and developing industries, Europe is still lagging behind the rest of the world when it comes to growth in power demand. High electricity prices and operational costs are hampering overall demand in the region, leading to a more fragmented market.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) this month hailed the rise of a “new Age of electricity,” as it upped its forecasts for global demand, predicting growth of 3.9% for 2025-2027 — the fastest pace of growth in recent years.
The forecasts for Europe are more modest, however. Following two years of sharp declines in power demand, the region saw an increase of just 1% in 2024, according to a January report from energy think tank Ember.
“2024 marks a turning point for electricity demand,” said Ember’s Petrovich, one of the authors of their report. “What we saw is the first rebound — even if it was a small rebound after many years of decline — it was widespread across the block.”
McKinsey’s Diaz explained that since the energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions, electricity prices have settled around 60 to 80 euros per megawatt hour. This is still 50-100% more expensive than prices seen in the previous two decades, however.
As a result, costs for consumers have soared, leading to signs of a deceleration in demand for heat pumps and electric vehicles, he said.
Diaz added that for manufacturers in Europe, the energy requirements “tower above those of any other geography in the world, it’s not only potentially more expensive, but even potentially more challenging,” Hernandez said.
The “unprecedented” growth in data centers is “helping the overall curve ever so slightly, but everything else is fighting against it,” Hernandez said.
Lucid Motors (LCID) reported first-quarter earnings on Tuesday, reaffirming its plans to more than double EV production in 2025. Despite the threat of new tariffs, the EV maker expects to continue building momentum after another record quarter.
Lucid stands by 20,000 EV production goal for 2025
In the first three months of 2025, Lucid delivered 3,109 vehicles, setting its fifth straight quarterly record. The company’s production is also picking up, with 2,213 vehicles built at its Casa Grande plant in Arizona. Another 600 were in transit to Saudi Arabia, where they will be assembled at Lucid’s new AMP-2 plant.
At this rate, Lucid is on track to deliver around 12,500 vehicles, easily topping the 10,200 vehicles it delivered in 2024.
With its first electric SUV, the Gravity, now rolling out, Lucid is poised to see even more demand throughout the year.
Lucid reported first-quarter revenue of $235 million, up slightly from the $234.5 million in Q4 2024 and an increase of 35% from Q1 2024.
Despite higher sales, the EV maker cut its net loss to $366 million from over $680 million in the first quarter of 2024. Lucid also improved gross margins by 37 pts year-over-year (YOY) to -97%.
Even with the added tariffs, Lucid still expects to produce around 20,000 vehicles in 2025, more than double the roughly 9,000 cars it made last year.
Like most automakers, Lucid is preparing for a shakeup under the Trump administration, including possibly ending the $7,500 federal EV tax credit. Earlier today, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson said there’s “a better chance we kill it than save it” during an interview.
The company said, “A thorough analysis of tariffs, supply chain, and related macroeconomic uncertainties is ongoing.”
Lucid ended the first quarter with around $5.76 billion in total liquidity, which the company said is enough to fund it into the second half of 2026, when it plans to launch its midsize platform.
Former CEO Peter Rawlinson said earlier this year that Lucid’s midsize platform is “finally when we compete directly with Tesla.” The first two vehicles are expected to be an electric SUV and sedan, starting at around $50,000, which could rival Tesla’s Model Y and Model 3.
But first, it will focus on its new electric SUV. The Lucid Gravity Grand Touring is available to order starting at $94,900 with up to 450 miles of range. Later this year, Lucid will launch the lower-priced Touring trim, starting at $79,900.
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Audi is looking to dodge new US tariffs by manufacturing its electric vehicles on American soil.
After the Trump administration slapped a 25% tariff on EVs imported from outside North America starting May 3, Audi is eyeing three possible production sites in the US to avoid the hefty fees. Right now, the automaker imports most of its US-sold vehicles from Europe and Mexico, but that’s now a lot more expensive.
Sources told Germany’s Automobilwoche (via its sister publication Automotive News Europe) that Audi may tap into its parent company Volkswagen Group’s US facilities to make the move. One option is to build the Q4 E-tron or its future version at VW’s Chattanooga, Tennessee, plant. That factory already builds the VW ID.4, which rides on the same MEB electric platform as the Q4 E-tron.
Audi is also reportedly considering the under-construction Scout Motors factory in Columbia, South Carolina, for the Q8 E-tron. The midsize electric SUV was initially slated for production in Mexico, but South Carolina could be a more cost-effective bet now in light of Trump’s tariffs.
For its third electric SUV, the upcoming Q6 E-tron, Audi is said to still be hunting for a US production site.
So far, nothing is official. But Audi isn’t hiding the fact that it’s ramping up efforts to expand its US presence. A spokesperson told Automotive News Europe: “We are currently examining various scenarios. We are confident that we will be able to decide on the specific details in consultation with the Group before the end of this year.”
On a May 5 earnings call, Audi CFO Jürgen Rittersberger confirmed that the company plans to launch 10 models in the US and will lock in production locations before the end of 2025.
Read more: Facing pressure, Trump scales back tariffs for US automakers
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Environment
Rivian’s (RIVN) Q1 2025 report details highest gross profits to date, R2 validations underway
American EV automaker Rivian has shared its full financial report and shareholder letter for Q1 2025. The quarterly update details continued gross profits and a growing interest in the company’s two flagship BEVs. Rivian is also making headway in developing its second model, R2.
Rivian ($RIVN) continues to roll along as a prominent shaker in the American EV space, especially as legacy competitors scramble to adapt to the ever-evolving threat to their assembly lines due to proposed tariffs and an ongoing trade war with other global superpowers like China.
Ahead of today’s full Q1 2025 report, Rivian has shared its delivery numbers for the first three months of the year, shipping out 8,640 R1S and R1T models to customers. This was to be expected, as Rivian CFO Claire McDonough said during the Q4 earnings call that the automaker anticipated the dip in deliveries, citing a “supply shortage of a component in our Enduro motor system” that began in Q3 2024.
Despite the notable drop in EV deliveries compared to previous quarters, Rivian relayed that it remained on track to deliver between 46,000 and 51,000 EVs in 2025. This afternoon, Rivian adjusted that target alongside financial updates pertaining to Q1 2025.
Rivian’s Q1 2025 report by the numbers
The main headline of Rivian’s Q1 2025 was its gross profit of $206 million. That marks the American automaker’s second consecutive quarter of reporting gross profit as well as its highest to date. Rivian shared that of that $206 million mark, $92 million came from the automotive segment and $114 million came from its software and services segment.
Rivian also achieved an 85% increase in cash flow from operating activities in Q1 2025 compared to a year prior. As we spoke about earlier this week with a teaser image of Rivian’s new Maximus drive unit posted by CEO RJ Scaringe, reducing the cost-per-unit of its BEV components while increasing production efficiency – a key goal of the company at the moment.
According to the automaker, it has achieved a $22,600 reduction in automotive cost of goods sold per vehicle delivered in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024.
Rivian also looks to bolster its balance sheet very soon, thanks to a previously announced joint venture with Volkswagen Group worthy of an investment of up to $5.8 billion. According to Rivian’s Q1 2025 report, its gross profit milestone has unlocked $1 billion from VW Group through said joint venture and is expected to be finalized by June 30, 2025.
While Rivian said its delivery targets were on track a month ago, the American automaker has since revised its annual numbers, citing the current economic trade environment around the world:
While Rivian has 100% US vehicle manufacturing and a majority of its bill of materials (excluding cells) coming from the U.S. or USMCA-qualified, Rivian is not immune to the impacts of the global trade and economic environment. The company’s guidance represents management’s current view on evolving trade regulation, policies, tariffs and the overall impact these items may have on consumer sentiment and demand. As a result of these impacts, Rivian has revised its delivery outlook to 40,000 to 46,000 vehicles.
That’s not a huge slide, and if Rivian hits the top end of that target, it would still equal the lower end of its previous goal for 2025. Looking ahead, Rivian said it is maintaining its outlook range for adjusted EBITDA of a $1.7 billion loss to a $1.9 billion loss. Rivian also relayed an expectation to achieve “modest positive gross profit for the full 2025 fiscal year. Lastly, Rivian is raising its capital expenditure guidance to between $1.8 billion and $1.9 billion, citing an expected impact from tariffs.
Other Rivian updates
Aside from the numbers, Rivian’s Q1 2025 shareholder letter included several progress updates, particularly regarding its highly anticipated R2 EVs. According to the company, it has commenced design validation builds on its R2 prototype line using production tooling.
The new 1.1 million-square-foot manufacturing expansion at Rivian’s Normal, Illinois, production facility, where the general assembly line for the R2 will be, is progressing on schedule and will “allow for additional manufacturing efficiency gains.” That new building will also house a new body shop.
This week, we learned that the new expansion will also be joined by a supplier park supported by a $16 million incentive package from Illinois.
Following today’s Q1 2025 report, Rivian will host an audio webcast to discuss the details above at 2:00 pm PT / 5:00 pm ET today. Tuesday, May 6, 2025.
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