Donald Trump has not ruled out a recession in the United States this year, saying the world’s largest economy is in “transition” through his trade war.

Financial markets have been spooked by the implications of his early trade fights involving the country’s nearest partners Canada and Mexico through on-off tariffs of up to 25%.

China has also been targeted and the European Union could be next, from 2 April, when Mr Trump has promised to ramp up his “America first” ambitions.

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The recession question first cropped up a week ago when a closely-watched economic indicator suggested the US economy was shrinking at its fastest pace since the COVID pandemic.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model showed activity shrinking in the current first quarter, even before the president took office as the threat of tariffs loomed large.

Other indicators show signs for concern, with the US unemployment rate ticking up in February to 4.1%, according to official data on Friday.

The stock market sell-off of last week left the broad S&P 500 trading at near six-month lows.

The dollar has suffered too, with sterling and the euro gaining four cents since the end of February.

They are hardly the headlines Mr Trump wants.

He was asked directly in a Fox News interview on Sunday whether he was expecting a recession.

Crucially, he did not deny the possibility in his reply when he said: “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big, we’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing. And there are always periods of – it takes a little time. It takes a little time.”

“It will be great for us,” he said of the tariff regime’s domestic impact, which, he claims, will force more companies to hire more workers in the United States.

Both Canada and Mexico have been given two temporary reprieves, with companies operating cross-border complaining of chaos in terms of red tape and a lack of clarity on future tariffs.

Asked by Fox if he could give businesses some reassurance, Mr Trump added: “Well, I think so. But, you know, the tariffs could go up as time goes by and they may go up. And you know, I don’t know if it’s predictability, I think…”.

When told by the interviewer Maria Bartiromo that those remarks were not providing clarity, he responded: “No, I think they say that, you know, it sounds good to say. But for years, the globalists, the big globalists have been ripping off the United States; they’ve been taking money away from the United States. And all we’re doing is getting some of it back. And we’re going to treat our country fairly.”

The markets will study carefully the key US economic data ahead for signs of a protracted slowdown.

News that China returned to deflation in February helped keep sentiment on the back foot in Monday’s market moves as it showed underlying demand in its economy remained weak.

Most major equity markets in Asia and Europe were down, with futures suggesting that America would follow suit amid its own economic worries.

The country does not rely on the common international definition of a recession – two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

In the United States, only an independent committee of economists has the power to declare a recession.

Its deliberations expand beyond pure growth to include other facets such as the state of the employment market.

Residents who live near newly installed pylons will be compensated with £250-a-year off their energy bills, a minister has said.

Housing and planning minister Alex Norris told Sky’s Wilfred Frost on Breakfast that communities “need to share the benefits” of the government’s tilt towards clean energy.

“If you’re making that sacrifice of having some of the infrastructure in your community, you should get some of the money back,” he said.

“So we’re making that commitment – £250-a-year if you are near those pylons.

“We think that’s a fair balance between people who are making that commitment to the country… they should be rewarded for that.”

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Ministers are currently pushing through an overhaul of the planning system – long seen as a brake on housebuilding and vital infrastructure projects – to stimulate growth in the economy.

Overnight it was announced parts of the planning system could be stripped away as part of the government’s attempts to speed up house building.

In its election-winning manifesto, Labour promised to build 1.5 million new homes over the next five years to tackle the lack of affordable housing, with recent statistics showing that there are 123,000 households in temporary accommodation – including nearly 160,000 children.

Sir Keir Starmer has repeatedly vowed to put “builders not blockers first”, announcing at the beginning of the year “unarguable cases” that are legally challenged will only be able to be brought back to the courts once – rather than the current three times.

Councils have also been told to come up with “immediate, mandatory” housing targets to help the government achieve its target.

Under the reforms announced last night, consulting bodies such as Sport England, the Theatres Trust and the Garden History Society will no longer be required for those looking to build under the new plans being considered by ministers.

While consultees will not be completely removed from the process, it will no longer be mandatory for builders to receive the opinion of such bodies and their scope will be “narrowed to focus on heritage, safety and environmental protection”, according to the government.

It is hoped the slimming down of the process will reduce waiting times for projects.

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Mr Norris said the interjections of official bodies in planning decisions was causing a “bottleneck” in granting applications.

“I think viewers might be surprised to hear that there are two dozen-plus organisations that have to be consulted on planning applications – that’s providing a bit of a bottleneck, often not getting back in time,” he said.

He said that while members of Sport England were “fine people”, there was a case where the body held up the development in Bradford next to a cricket pitch.

“The hold up is around a disagreement on the speed at which cricket balls are hit,” he explained.

“So Sport England are querying the modelling of the speed at which the balls will be hit, and that, as a result, has meant that the whole process is now multiple years down the line, and there’s no build out.”

The owners of Verisure, a provider of domestic alarm systems, are leaning towards a €20bn (£16.7bn) flotation in Amsterdam – a decision that would deliver another blow to London’s hopes of capitalising on a revival in the market for major initial public offerings (IPOs).

Sky News has learnt Euronext Amsterdam is emerging as the likeliest destination for a listing of Verisure following preliminary talks with a group of investment banks angling to work on the deal.

Sources close to Verisure insisted on Monday no final decision about whether to proceed with an IPO, or its venue, had been taken.

They acknowledged the possibility of such an outcome, however, despite the efforts of stock exchanges in London, Stockholm and Zurich to position themselves for the flotation.

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One said recent rule changes in the UK could yet tip the balance back in London’s favour.

A number of Wall Street banks have pitched to work on the deal, Bloomberg News reported last week, while Sky News revealed in January preparations for an IPO were under way.

Verisure is majority-owned by the private equity firm Hellman & Friedman (H&F), with a listing unlikely until next year.

People close to Verisure said they expected that the company would be valued at more than €20bn, with some market sources suggesting the eventual figure could be as high as €30bn (£25.2bn).

That figure includes Verisure’s debt, meaning that its equity market capitalisation would be smaller.

Verisure has roughly 5.5 million customers in 17 countries, including the UK, Brazil, Chile, Italy and the Netherlands.

Under Austin Lally, its chief executive, it has been transformed into a lucrative subscription model-based business pitching technologically advanced services to its customer base.

Four years ago, the company was responsible for a $2bn dividend payout to its owners.

News of Verisure’s deliberations comes at an increasingly critical time for the London Stock Exchange.

David Schwimmer, the boss of its parent company, recently expressed confidence about its listings pipeline, although hopes that Shein, the Chinese-founded online fashion group, would stage a float in London this year have been buffeted by the early weeks of Donald Trump’s presidency and protests about its alleged use of child labour in its supply chain.

Data compiled by EY, the professional services firm, showed that 2024 was among the quietest years on record for new issuance, with just eight new listings – and only three on the main market.

Just £778m in proceeds was raised during the year through IPOs, down 18% on the previous year.

At the same time, the momentum of companies drifting away from London has gathered pace with Ashtead, the equipment rental company, saying it would relocate its listing to New York.

Flutter Entertainment, the gambling group behind Paddy Power and Betfair, has already moved its primary listing to the US.

H&F, which ranks among the world’s most successful buyout firms, became Verisure’s majority shareholder in 2015 when it bought the stake held by Bain Capital, another private equity group.

At the time, the company was known as Securitas Direct Verisure Group, with it continuing to trade under the Securitas Direct brand in some markets.

A spokesman for Verisure declined to comment on Monday.