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If you’re already feeling overwhelmed by the sheer amount of news to ingest on Donald Trump’s tariffs plans in recent weeks, well, you’re not alone.

One measure of “policy uncertainty”, which measures how much certain issues are dominating news coverage, shows that the uncertainty levels over trade are currently higher than they’ve been in decades.

But even that index struggles to capture the extent of uncertainty.

Will the on-again off-again tariffs on Canada and Mexico actually be implemented? What about the tariffs on steel and aluminium, due to be implemented this week? So far, the only tariffs that have actually taken effect are the extra 10% levies imposed on China a few weeks ago.

But then Donald Trump has since talked about an extra 10% on top of that, not to mention a set of “reciprocal tariffs” intended mostly to hit the European Union. It’s very hard to keep pace with it all.

However, one of the impacts of all this uncertainty is that US share prices have been performing far worse than their international counterparts.

Graph of 'uncertainty index'

Many had assumed, based on his behaviour last time around, that Donald Trump would shy away from any decisions causing long-term damage to share prices, but the S&P 500 index is down over 6% since the inauguration, compared to a 12% rise in Germany‘s currency-adjusted index. Some are calling it the “Trump Slump”.

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Markets don’t like uncertainty; nor do they like inflation, especially the kind caused by tariffs, which impose an extra cost on all imported items. Whether this is a price worth paying rather depends on what the White House intends to achieve from this.

The ostensible goal – beyond extracting something from countries like China and Canada – is to seek to reindustrialise the US by preventing manufactured goods from entering quite so easily. But is that likely to happen?

Stock market values since inauguration of Trump

For some evidence, look no further than the last time Donald Trump imposed tariffs on metals, back in 2018. The levies on aluminium (then a “mere” 10%) certainly caused a slight rise in domestic production as more smelting capacity was brought back online.

But that bump was short-lived. By the end of his first term, production was back, more or less, to where it was before the tariffs. In the intervening period, aluminium production has dropped to unprecedented lows.

The White House’s argument is that this is down in part to the fact that a) some countries, notably Canada, were excluded from the tariffs and b) the level of tariff was too low. Hence why it’s been raised to 25%. But the aluminium industry itself has said that Canada really needs to be excluded from this round of levies. Will those appeals bear fruit? Again, no-one really knows.

chart showing impact of previous tariffs

What we do know is that many parts of American industry, from high tech producers of planes and cars, all the way down to soft drinks can manufacturers, rely on imported aluminium. In the very long run, some companies might get old smelters up and running, or build new ones. But it takes years to do so.

In other words, in the intervening period there is likely to be some significant economic pain as the cost of all that metal goes sharply higher.

Nor is it altogether clear whether a rational investor would really put the necessary funds into building a new smelter.

The numbers might add up if the tariffs stay in place. But what guarantee do they have that they will stay in place? Since no-one really knows, the chances of anyone putting their money into that industry are more constrained than usual.

What we do know is that in the meantime, other countries are retaliating with other trade weapons.

China has imposed limits on exports of key metals like tungsten and molybdenum – in both cases it is the world’s biggest producer. That, in turn, will further raise costs for American producers.

The upshot is the coming months and years will be bumpy and tough for the American economy. Then again, trying to re-industrialise a country like America – or for that matter the UK – is no mean feat. Trying to do it at breakneck speed using a set of blunt tariffs is all the harder.

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FCA considering compensation scheme over car finance scandal – raising hopes of payouts for motorists

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FCA considering compensation scheme over car finance scandal - raising hopes of payouts for motorists

Thousands of motorists who bought cars on finance before 2021 could be set for payouts as the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has said it will consult on a compensation scheme.

In a statement released on Sunday, the FCA said its review of the past use of motor finance “has shown that many firms were not complying with the law or our disclosure rules that were in force when they sold loans to consumers”.

“Where consumers have lost out, they should be appropriately compensated in an orderly, consistent and efficient way,” the statement continued.

Read more: How to tell if you’ve been mis-sold car finance

The FCA said it estimates the cost of any scheme, including compensation and administrative costs, to be no lower than £9bn – adding that a total cost of £13.5bn is “more plausible”.

It is unclear how many people could be eligible for a pay-out. The authority estimates most individuals will probably receive less than £950 in compensation.

The consultation will be published by early October and any scheme will be finalised in time for people to start receiving compensation next year.

What motorists should do next

The FCA says you may be affected if you bought a car under a finance scheme, including hire purchase agreements, before 28 January 2021.

Anyone who has already complained does not need to do anything.

The authority added: “Consumers concerned that they were not told about commission, and who think they may have paid too much for the finance, should complain now.”

Its website advises drivers to complain to their finance provider first.

If you’re unhappy with the response, you can then contact the Financial Ombudsman.

The FCA has said any compensation scheme will be easy to participate in, without drivers needing to use a claims management company or law firm.

It has warned motorists that doing so could end up costing you 30% of any compensation in fees.

The announcement comes after the Supreme Court ruled on a separate, but similar, case on Friday.

The court overturned a ruling that would have meant millions of motorists could have been due compensation over “secret” commission payments made to car dealers as part of finance arrangements.

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Car finance scandal explained

The FCA’s case concerns discretionary commission arrangements (DCAs) – a practice banned in 2021.

Under these arrangements, brokers and dealers increased the amount of interest they earned without telling buyers and received more commission for it. This is said to have then incentivised sellers to maximise interest rates.

In light of the Supreme Court’s judgment, any compensation scheme could also cover non-discretionary commission arrangements, the FCA has said. These arrangements are ones where the buyer’s interest rate did not impact the dealer’s commission.

This is because part of the court’s ruling “makes clear that non-disclosure of other facts relating to the commission can make the relationship [between a salesperson and buyer] unfair,” it said.

It was previously estimated that about 40% of car finance deals included DCAs while 99% involved a commission payment to a broker.

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Nikhil Rathi, chief executive of the FCA, said: “It is clear that some firms have broken the law and our rules. It’s fair for their customers to be compensated.

“We also want to ensure that the market, relied on by millions each year, can continue to work well and consumers can get a fair deal.”

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ICG takes off with £200m deal for Exeter and Bournemouth airports

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ICG takes off with £200m deal for Exeter and Bournemouth airports

The London-listed investment group ICG is closing in on a £200m deal to buy three of Britain’s biggest regional airports.

Sky News has learnt that ICG is expected to sign a formal agreement to buy Bournemouth, Exeter and Norwich airports later this month.

The trio of sites collectively serve just over 2 million passengers annually.

ICG is buying the airports from Rigby Group, a privately owned conglomerate which has interests in the hotels, software and technology sectors.

Exeter acted as the hub for Flybe, the regional carrier which collapsed in the aftermath of the pandemic.

The deal will come amid a frenzy of activity involving Britain’s major airports as infrastructure investors seek to exploit a recovery in their valuations.

AviAlliance, which is owned by the Canadian pension fund PSP Investments, agreed to buy the parent company of Aberdeen, Glasgow and Southampton airports for £1.55bn last year.

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London City Airport’s shareholder base has just been shaken up with a deal which saw Australia’s Macquarie take a large stake.

French investor Ardian has increased its investment in Heathrow Airport as the UK’s biggest aviation hub proposes an expansion that will cost tens of billions of pounds.

ICG and Rigby Group declined to comment .

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Tech companies are racing to make their products smaller – and much, much thinner

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Tech companies are racing to make their products smaller - and much, much thinner

Some of the world’s leading tech companies are betting big on very small innovations.

Last week, Samsung released its Galaxy Z Fold 7 which – when open – has a thickness of just 4.2mm, one of the slimmest folding phones ever to hit the market.

And Honor, a spin-off from Chinese smartphone company Huawei, will soon ship its latest foldable – the slimmest in the world. Its new Honor Magic V5 model is only 8.8mm thick when folded, and a mere 4.1mm when open.

Apple is also expected to release a foldable in the second half of next year, according to a note by analysts at JPMorgan published this week.

The race to miniaturise technology is speeding up, the ultimate prize being the next evolution in consumer devices.

Whether it be wearable devices, such as smartglasses, watches, rings or foldables – there is enormous market potential for any manufacturer that can make its products small enough.

Despite being thinner than its predecessor, Honor claims its Magic V5 also offers significant improvements to battery life, processing power, and camera capabilities.

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Hope Cao, a product expert at Honor told Sky News the progress was “due largely to our silicon carbon battery technology”. These batteries are a next-generation breakthrough that offers higher energy density compared to traditional lithium-ion batteries, and are becoming more common in consumer devices.

Pic: Honor
Image:
The Magic V5. Pic: Honor

Honor also told Sky News it had used its own AI model “to precisely test and find the optimum design, which was both the slimmest, as well as, the most durable.”

However, research and development into miniaturisation goes well beyond just folding phones.

A company that’s been at the forefront of developing augmented reality (AR) glasses, Xreal, was one of the first to release a viable pair to the consumer market.

Xreal’s Ralph Jodice told Sky News “one of our biggest engineering challenges is shrinking powerful augmented reality technology into a form factor that looks and feels like everyday sunglasses”.

Xreal’s specs can display images on the lenses like something out of a sci-fi movie – allowing the wearer to connect most USB-C compatible devices such as phones, laptops and handheld consoles to an IMAX-sized screen anywhere they go.

Pic: Xreal
Image:
Pic: Xreal

Experts at The Metaverse Society suggest prices of these wearable devices could be lowered by shifting the burden of computing from the headset to a mobile phone or computer, whose battery and processor would power the glasses via a cable.

However, despite the daunting challenge, companies are doubling down on research and making leaps in the area.

Social media giant Meta is also vying for dominance in the miniature market.

Ray-Ban Meta AI glasses are shown off at the annual British Educational Training and Technology conference. Pic: PA
Image:
Ray-Ban Meta AI glasses are shown off at the annual British Educational Training and Technology conference. Pic: PA

Meta’s Ray-Ban sunglasses (to which they recently added an Oakley range), cannot project images on the lenses like the pair from Xreal – instead they can capture photos, footage and sound. When connected to a smartphone they can even use your phone’s 5G connection to ask Meta’s AI what you’re looking at, and ask how to save a particular type of houseplant for example.

Gareth Sutcliffe, a tech and media analyst at Enders Analysis, tells Sky News wearables “are a green field opportunity for Meta and Google” to capture a market of “hundreds of millions of users if these devices sell at similar rates to mobile phones”.

Li-Chen Miller, Meta’s vice president of product and wearables, recently said: “You’d be hard-pressed to find a more interesting engineering problem in the company than the one that’s at the intersection of these two dynamics, building glasses [with onboard technology] that people are comfortable wearing on their faces for extended periods of time … and willing to wear them around friends, family, and others nearby.”

Mr Sutcliffe points out that “Meta’s R&D spend on wearables looks extraordinary in the context of limited sales now, but should the category explode in popularity, it will be seen as a great strategic bet.”

Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg’s long-term aim is to combine the abilities of both Xreal and the Ray-Bans into a fully functioning pair of smartglasses, capable of capturing content, as well as display graphics onscreen.

However, despite recently showcasing a prototype model, the company was at pains to point out that it was still far from ready for the consumer market.

This race is a marathon not a sprint – or as Sutcliffe tells Sky News “a decade-long slog” – but 17 years after the release of the first iPhone, people are beginning to wonder what will replace it – and it could well be a pair of glasses.

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