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Tesla (TSLA) delivery consensus from Wall Street is still at 418,000 electric vehicles in Q1 2025, but they are dreaming.

Deliveries are currently tracking about 40,000 units lower.

Tesla delivered just short of 387,000 vehicles in Q1 2024 and 1.8 million vehicles in 2024—the automaker’s first year of deliveries being down since it achieved high-volume production.

Now, analysts are wondering if deliveries are going down for Tesla in 2025.

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Wall Street has been quite optimistic so far. The Wall Street delivery consensus for Tesla’s Q1 2025 started the year at 464,000 deliveries, which is slightly down from Q4 2024, but it is up a massive 20% year-over-year.

However, analysts have been gradually updating their estimates, and the consensus is now it sits at 418,000 deliveries, which would still be up 8% over Q1 2024.

That’s surprisingly high for anyone who has been watching Tesla closely this quarter since deliveries have been tracking below Q1 2024.

As of the end of February, Tesla is down roughly 43% in Europe – or about 20,000 units behind Q1 2024. In China, Tesla is trailing about 7,000 units behind where it was last year.

The data is more opaque in the US, but S&P data just released some data based on vehicle registration for January in the US, and Tesla is down 11% or about 4,000 units.

If you have been doing the math, it means that available data shows that Tesla is about 31,000 units behind where it was last quarter in its 3 main markets – with a few weeks left to report in China, a month in Europe, and two months in the US, to be fair.

31,000 units lower than 387,000 would mean 356,000 deliveries in Q1 2025, but there’s obviously still time for Tesla to either catch up or fall further behind.

Wall Street analysts are notoriously slower to update their numbers, but some have been catching up this week.

Guggenheim updated its delivery estimate from 405,000 deliveries to 358,000 units in Q1 2025 today.

JP Morgan also updated its delivery estimate from 444,000 to 355,000 in an update shared with clients today.

Both these firms have bearish outlooks on Tesla’s stock.

Morgan Stanley is one of the most bullish firms on Tesla, and they also came out with a new note today reiterating an overweight rating on Tesla’ stock. Analyst Adam Jonas says that he still sees Tesla’s volume growing 7%, which would put deliveries at 414,000 units this quarter.

As for prediction market Kalshi, which creates estimates based on people betting on Tesla’s delivery results, the estimate currently sits at 324,000 deliveries:

It’s fair to say that delivery predictions for Tesla’s Q1 2025 are currently quite all over the place.

Electrek’s Take

I am sure that the Wall Street consensus will come down by the end of the month because it is incredibly inflated right now.

It should at least be under Q1 2024.

On the other hand, I think the prediction market on Kalshi is probably overly pessimistic, but it’s also not impossible.

Tesla’s US sales this month are a bit of a mystery and they probably didn’t look good if Elon resorted to giving Trump another $100 million and having him do an informercial for the company at the White House.

We have more data coming from insurance registration in China in the coming weeks that should give us a pretty good idea.

Tesla certainly needs to ramp up deliveries of the new Model Y in China in the coming weeks. Otherwise, the Kalshi prediction could become accurate.

What do you think? What’s your prediction for Tesla in Q1 2025? For now, I think it is undoubtedly below 380,000 units and no less than 350,000 units.

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Killing IRA EV tax credits will ruin US EV and battery industries – Princeton study

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Killing IRA EV tax credits will ruin US EV and battery industries – Princeton study

A new study from the REPEAT Project led by Princeton University’s ZERO Lab warns that the repeal of Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) tax credits could decimate the growing EV manufacturing sector.

The report “Potential Impacts of Electric Vehicle Tax Credit Repeal on US Vehicle Market and Manufacturing” clearly outlines the risks. The Princeton study states that repealing the IRA federal tax credits and the EPA’s clean vehicle regulations would sharply reduce EV demand.

Specifically, EV sales could drop around 30% by 2027 and nearly 40% by 2030 compared to sticking with the policies implemented by the Biden administration. That means the share of EVs among new cars sold would shrink dramatically – from about 18% to 13% by 2026 and from 40% to just 24% by 2030.

“While no one has a perfect crystal ball, this is our best attempt to survey available quantitative forecasts and develop an outlook on US EV sales,” explained the study’s project leader, Jesse D. Jenkins, assistant professor at Princeton’s Department of Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering and Andlinger Center for Energy & Environment in an email. “The report is also the only analysis I’m aware of to date that draws the connection to US manufacturing as well.”

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Here’s why this matters: The report points out that repealing these policies wouldn’t just slow down EV adoption – it could seriously derail the US manufacturing renaissance now underway. Up to 100% of planned expansions for EV assembly plants could be canceled or shuttered. Battery manufacturing would also take a huge hit, with between 29% and 72% of battery cell production capacity becoming redundant by 2025. That means factories under construction or those just coming online would be at risk.

To put that into perspective, an Environmental Defense Fund report released in January found that $197.6 billion worth of investments in EV and battery manufacturing have been announced at 208 facilities around the US, with two-thirds announced since the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act in August 2022.

It’s probably a good time to point out that, in order to qualify for IRA federal tax credits, EVs must be domestically assembled, use battery components that have been substantially domestically produced, and use critical minerals produced, processed, or recycled in North America or free trade agreement countries.

Why, then, is the Trump administration torpedoing an industry that’s achieving the very thing it says it wants to achieve, which is to boost domestic manufacturing and jobs?

And let’s not forget the broader EV supply chain – materials, parts, and component suppliers across the country would also suffer, though these effects haven’t even been fully quantified yet.

Bottom line: Repealing the tax credits and regulations wouldn’t just slow down EV sales – it would threaten the jobs, investments, and communities counting on America’s EV manufacturing boom.

Read more: Republican districts lose billions as clean energy cancellations surge


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Cadillac’s most affordable EV just got even cheaper

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Cadillac's most affordable EV just got even cheaper

The Optiq, Cadillac’s most affordable EV, just got a price cut. Despite being on the market for less than two months, GM cut lease prices by nearly $100 a month. Here’s how you can snag the deal.

GM cuts lease prices on Cadillac’s most affordable EV

Compared to Cadillac’s other electric vehicles, like the Escalade IQL, which starts at over $130,000, and the Vistiq, which has a price tag of over $77,000, the Optiq already looks like a steal at about $55,000.

Cadillac’s electric SUV arrived in January with lease prices starting at $489 per month. Although this was already its cheapest SUV (gas or EV), GM is making it even more affordable this month.

The 2025 Cadillac Lyriq is now listed at just $399 for 24 months with $4,929 due at signing. In less than two months, the OPTIQ’s lease prices have fallen by $90, or almost 20%. The deal is for the 2025 Cadillac Optiq AWD Luxury 1 with an MSRP of $54,390.

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Cadillac’s lease deal runs through March 31. However, there are a few limitations you should know about. The deal includes a $2,000 loyalty or conquest offer.

Cadillac's-most-affordable-EV-lease
Cadillac Optiq EV lease deal (Source: Cadillac)

The fine print states you must be a lessee of a 2020 model year or newer non-GM vehicle for at least 30 days. According to online car research firm CarsDirect, this extends to 2011 and newer electric vehicles from a competitor brands such as Tesla, Rivian, Porsche, BMW, Ford, and Honda, among several others.

At 190″ long, 75″ wide, and 65″ tall, the Cadillac Optiq is about the same size as the Tesla Model Y (187″ long x 76″ wide x 64″ tall).

Powered by an 85 kWh battery pack, the electric SUV has a driving range of up to 302 miles. With 150 kW DC fast charging, the Optiq can gain up to 79 miles of range in about 10 minutes.

2025 Cadillac Optiq trim Starting Price
(including destination)
Driving Range
(EPA-estimated)
Luxury 1 $54,390 302 miles
Luxury 2 $56,590 302 miles
Sport 1 $54,990 302 miles
Sport 2 $57,090 302 miles
2025 Cadillac Optiq price and range by trim

Inside, the Optiq features a massive 33″ infotainment and “segment-leading” cargo (57 cubic feet) and second-row space.

GM has been introducing new deals on new EV models all year. Chevy’s new Equinox, Blazer, and Silverado EVs are all available with 0% APR with leases starting as low as $299 per month.

Ready to take advantage of the savings? We can help you get started. Check out our links below to find deals on GM’s most popular EVs in your area.

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Orbea unveils Denna: A fancy shmancy mid-drive electric road bike tuned for gravel

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Orbea unveils Denna: A fancy shmancy mid-drive electric road bike tuned for gravel

The latest addition to Orbea’s electric road bike lineup is here, and it’s designed to handle more than just pavement. The Orbea Denna, announced today, is a gravel-optimized electric road bike that builds on the company’s previous experience with models like the Gain and Terra. Featuring a mid-drive motor “tuned specifically for off-road conditions”, the Denna aims to blend power, range, and versatility for riders looking to tackle everything from steep climbs to loose trails.

At the heart of the Denna is Orbea’s RS Gen2 RC system, a customized version of Shimano’s EP platform. The RS (Rider Synergy) branding refers to Orbea’s firmware tweaks that aim to deliver a more natural ride feel by adjusting power delivery to match rider input.

The second-generation update increases the motor’s torque output to 85 Nm, giving it plenty of climbing ability, especially on rougher terrain.

The Denna offers two built-in power modes:

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• Gravel mode is tuned for smoother gravel roads, offering a more efficient power delivery at higher cadences.

• Gravel+ mode adjusts torque for looser terrain, delivering extra power at lower cadences to improve traction.

Riders can further tweak the assist settings through the Shimano e-Tube app, dialing in torque output to match their riding style.

Orbea designed the Denna with tire clearance up to 50c, allowing riders to customize their setup based on terrain. The frame geometry includes:

• A lower bottom bracket for stability

• Optimized chainstay length for balance between responsiveness and comfort

• A longer wheelbase to improve handling over uneven terrain

• A size-specific fork trail for consistent ride quality across all frame sizes

The OMR carbon frame and fork are built for both stiffness and compliance, allowing an interesting mix of vertical flex to absorb road vibrations while maintaining lateral rigidity for efficient pedaling.

The Denna is powered by a 420Wh battery, which Orbea claims can support up to 3.5 km (2.5 miles) of elevation gain in Eco mode. That’s not exactly the most common way to measure battery capacity, but most electric road bikes with similar sized batteries tout flat land ranges of 120-150 km (75-90 miles) per charge.

For riders who need even more range, an optional 210Wh range extender battery that is roughly the size of a water bottle adds extra distance without significantly increasing weight.

While range extenders are less common for everyday e-bikes, electric road bikes and gravel bikes are uniquely relevant candidates, as riders of these types of bikes often head out on extended rides covering significant distances.

Riders can switch between assistance modes using the left brake lever, and the system is compatible with multiple display options, including Shimano’s EN600 unit or a paired Garmin device for real-time battery and motor data.

For added utility, all Denna models include mounting points for fenders and two water bottle cages, making it adaptable for long-distance adventures.

Orbea is offering the Denna through its MyO customization program, allowing buyers to select components, colors, and finishes to match their riding style—whether that means a more road-oriented build or a full gravel setup.

Joseba Arizaga, Orbea’s Road Product Manager, summed up the company’s vision for the Denna:

‘’We are thrilled to be launching Denna today. It represents the next evolution of eRoad riding—where power, range, and capability come together to break down barriers and redefine what’s possible. With our Rider Synergy concept and gravel-specific tuning, Denna provides a seamless, natural ride feel that enhances every adventure, whether on smooth tarmac, rugged backroads or both. It’s not just about assistance; it’s about expanding the ride, unlocking new routes, and pushing further than ever before.”

Last but not least (definitely not least), prices can be found below. They range considerably for the different models that feature higher spec loadouts of key components.

Euros (EU) Dollars (US) Pounds (UK) 
M10i 9,999 9,999 8,999
M11e 9,999 9,999 8,999
M20i 7,599 7,599 7,299
M31e 6,999 6,999 6,399
M20 5,899 5,999 5,699
M30 5,499 5,599 5,199

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