Trump tariff threats are pushing Canada’s largest oil producer to break its dependence on the U.S.
The Suncor Energy Refinery is seen during extreme cold weather in Edmonton, AB, Canada, on Feb. 3, 2025.
Artur Widak | Nurphoto | Getty Images
HOUSTON — The deeply integrated North American oil and gas market stands at crossroads, with Canada’s largest oil producer warning that it will diversify its exports away from the United States if President Donald Trump‘s tariff threats do not end.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on Wednesday presented two possible futures for the continent. In one, Canada and the U.S. reach an agreement to create “Fortress North America,” with new pipeline capacity built to support 2 million barrels per day in additional exports to the U.S. market, Smith said at the CERAWeek energy conference.
This will support Trump’s “energy dominance” agenda, Smith said, allowing the U.S. to increase its exports to the global market by backfilling those barrels with imported oil from a neighbor and close ally. It will maintain low consumer prices in the U.S., she said, which is also part of the agenda Trump campaigned on.
Alberta wants to supply the U.S. with the energy it needs to win the race against China to achieve dominance in artificial intelligence, Smith said. “I don’t think any of us want to see a communist, totalitarian regime become a world, global leader in AI,” the premier said.
In the other future, Trump continues to wage his trade war against Canada and Alberta starts looking for oil and gas customers beyond the U.S., Smith said.
Canada is the fourth largest oil producer in the world and Alberta is the country’s biggest producer. Some 97% of the country’s 4 million bpd of oil exports went to the U.S. in 2023 with several European nations and Hong Kong taking the remainder, according to Canada’s energy regulator. Alberta supplied 87% of the oil exported from Canada to the U.S. in 2023.
“There are at least six or seven projects that are emerging in Canada in the event we’re not able to come to a partnership agreement with the U.S.,” Smith said.
The uncertainty caused by Trump’s tariff threats has already forced Alberta to start “looking at more opportunities to get more barrels off our borders besides the United States,” provincial energy minister Brian Jean said Tuesday.
Alberta is in active discussions with South Korea, Japan and European nations about shipping oil exports to those countries, the energy minister said. “The truth is we’re looking in every direction right now except the United States in relation to our priorities,” Jean said.
Canada looks to Europe, Asia
Trump’s tariffs have roiled financial markets and caused confusion among investors over the past week. The president on Wednesday imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada. He has paused until April 2 penalties on Canadian oil and gas as well as duties on other goods that are compliant with the trade agreement that governs North America.
The Trump administration has not provided clarity on how much of Canada’s energy exports to the U.S. conform to the trade agreement. Oil and gas that is not compliant would face a 10% tariff. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright declined to provide details when asked Monday by CNBC.
Smith said Wednesday that Canadian oil producers are busy filling out paperwork to ensure that their exports to the U.S. are compliant.
“There was a bit of a paperwork issue that our companies had,” Smith said. “There was no reason to register, and so now there is. I would imagine that they’ve all called their lawyers and they’re in compliance. I wouldn’t expect very much of our oil and gas is tariffed at all.”
But it is unclear whether Trump will proceed with tariffs when his pause expires on April 2. Wright said Monday a deal with Canada that avoids tariffs on oil, gas and other energy is “certainly is possible” but “it’s too early to say.”
“We can get to no tariffs or very low tariffs but it’s got to be reciprocal,” Wright said in an interview with CNBC’s Brian Sullivan.
It will take time for Alberta to pivot to markets beyond the U.S. if the tariffs do go into effect. Nearly all the pipelines in Canada run south to the U.S. Canada only has one pipeline stretching from Alberta to the country’s West Coast in British Columbia, providing access to Asian markets. There are no pipelines that run from Alberta to the country’s East Coast.
Smith said Canada is looking at three different pipeline proposals to its West Coast, at least one pipeline into the Northwest Territories, one into Manitoba, one to the Hudson Bay, and one into Eastern Canada.
“Those are conversations we were not having three months ago,” Jean said of the pipelines. But it took 12 years for Canada to expand its Trans Mountain Pipeline that connects to the country’s West Coast.
Alberta is not interested in taking a page from Ontario’s playbook, Jean said Tuesday. Premier Doug Ford imposed a 25% surcharge on electricity exported to the U.S. in response to Trump’s tariffs. He later suspended the penalty after the U.S. agreed to resume talks.
“We don’t believe that that this is the right way to do it,” Jean said of Alberta’s position. “We want to deescalate the situation.”
Canada has presented the U.S. with several options, the Alberta energy minister said. Jean declined to provide specifics, but he said the Trump administration needs a strong strategic petroleum reserve to achieve its goal of energy dominance.
“It also means that they have to be able to continue to get a good steady supply of product from Canada,” he said.
If the tariffs go do into effect, they will hurt both Canadians and Americans, particularly people who cannot afford a price increase, he said. The price hike will be split “fairly evenly” between U.S. customers and producers in Canada, he said.
“It’s going to be felt by all parties and frankly there’s many people right now […] that can’t afford it,” he said. “We need to think about those people because they’re the less fortunate that truly have no other choice but to buy fuel.”
Jean took a swipe at Trump’s repeated calls for Canada to become the 51st state.
“As long as we’re in charge, we don’t mind,” Jean said. “But the truth is the Republicans would never be elected again.”
The electric Chevy Equinox is America’s best-selling EV outside of Tesla. Cadillac is now leading the luxury segment, but GM said its aggressive EV expansion is over as it shifts back to ICE vehicles.
Chevy, Cadillac drive GM EV sales growth in Q3
GM’s electric vehicle sales are growing faster than those of any major OEM in the US. In the third quarter, Chevy, Cadillac, and GMC sold nearly 67,000 EVs, more than doubling from Q3 2024.
Combined, GM accounted for 16.5% of all EV sales in the US in Q3. Although it’s outpacing the industry, GM is pulling back EV plans and will continue to offer several internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles for a bit longer than expected.
After achieving its highest third-quarter market share since 2017, GM’s CEO Mary Barra said, “With the evolving regulatory framework and the end of federal consumer incentives, it is now clear that near-term EV adoption will be lower than planned.
Due to the changes, GM is “reassessing” EV capacity and manufacturing in the US. Barra said the company “aggressively expanded our electric vehicle capacity” over the past few years to meet the regulatory requirements.
With the recent policy changes, including the $7,500 federal tax credit expiring at the end of September, GM is shifting back to ICE vehicles.
“It’s clear that ICE volumes will remain higher for longer,” Barra explained, adding that GM will continue to produce gas-powered vehicles for the foreseeable future.
GM is onshoring production of the Chevy Blazer. It’s also developing a next-gen Cadillac CT5 and plans to extend the Cadillac XT5. In early 2027, GM will begin building the Cadillac Escalade and a new full-size, light-duty pickup at its Orion Assembly plant.
Although Barra still claims that “electric vehicles remain our North Star,” GM announced last week that its shifting EV plans would cost about $1.6 billion.
GM beat top and bottom lines in the third quarter, posting $45.59 billion in revenue with an adjusted EPS of $2.80. Share prices are trading up over 13% after GM raised its full-year guidance. The company now expects an adjusted EBIT of $12 to $13 billion, up from the previous $10 to $12.5 billion it previously forecasted.
It is also expected to take less of a tariff hit than expected. GM updated its full-year gross tariff impact to $3.5 to $4.5 billion, down from $4 to $5 billion.
Meanwhile, GM’s net income plunged 57% to $1.3 billion in Q3, down from about $3.1 billion in the same period last year.
GM’s CFO Paul Jacobson said during an interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box Tuesday morning that about 40% of the company’s EVs were profitable on a production basis. He explained that GM expects EVs to take longer than anticipated to reach profitability.
“We continue to believe that there is a strong future for electric vehicles, and we’ve got a great portfolio to be competitive, but we do have some structural changes that we need to do to make sure that we lower the cost of producing those vehicles,” Jacobson said.
Looking ahead, GM is focused on restoring profit margins in North America (8 to 10% adjusted EBIT margins), while also “driving EV profitability, maintaining production and pricing discipline, managing fixed costs, and further reducing tariff exposure.”
GM said it will continue to invest in new battery chemistries, form factors, and architectural improvements to boost EV profits in the future.
The shift comes despite Chevy, Cadillac, and GMC’s strong growth, largely thanks to EVs. Chevy is the fastest-growing electric vehicle brand, with the low-cost Equinox EV proving to be a hit. Cadillac is the best-selling luxury EV brand in the US this year (excluding Tesla) with three of the top ten models, including the Lyriq, Optiq, and Vistiq.
Looking to try GM’s electric vehicles for yourself? From the Chevy Equinox EV to the Cadillac Escalade IQ, you can use our links below to find available models near you.
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Tesla has slashed lease prices across most of its electric vehicle lineup in the US to create more demand after the tax credit went away.
With demand in the US pulling forward into Q3 due to the end of the federal tax credit, Tesla had a surge in deliveries, but demand is expected to fall in Q4.
The automaker is now adjusting its prices, starting with leases, to try to drum up demand.
With an overnight update to its online configurator, Tesla slashed lease prices:
- Model 3 (RWD): Dropped by $100 to $329/month (from $429).
- Model Y (Long Range): Dropped by $80 to $449/month (from $529).
- Cybertruck (AWD): Dropped by $50 to $699/month (from $749).
However, the automaker also warns that prices are going to go back up on November 1st:
While Tesla often offers temporary discounts, they often tend to happen toward the end of quarters.
In this case, it appears that Tesla is seeking an earlier boost in demand.
Without the tax credit, most of Tesla’s vehicles have virtually become $7,500 more expensive overnight in the US, which has remained its only healthy large market since a decline in demand in 2024.
Electrek’s Take
$330 per month for a Model 3 RWD is not a bad deal, but there are many good deals in the EV leasing world right now, and I would expect to see even more attractive deals toward the end of the year.
I’m on the market to upgrade my Model 3, but I’m on the lookout for some fire deals, from Tesla or others, toward the end of the year.
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![Enter the 'Spooky Swamp,' Rivian's costume theme for Halloween 2025 [Video]](https://i0.wp.com/electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2025/10/Rivian-Halloween-2025.jpg?resize=1200,628&quality=82&strip=all&ssl=1)
BOO! It’s Halloween 2025 and Rivian is helping its owners get in the spirit.
Did I scare you?
We are now ten days away from Halloween 2025 and Rivian is rolling out a fun little software update that converts your R1S or R1T into a unique theme it calls “vehicle costumes.”
While most of the year is dedicated to more robust updates that fix bugs and introduce new features (which we also cover), Halloween offers the Rivian team an opportunity to be creative, enabling its EV owners to get a little spooky and festive with a unique theme.
Last year’s “costume” was themed after both Knight Rider and Back to the Future options, transforming the dash displays while delivering unique light and sound displays on the exterior.
As I reported last week, Rivian began teasing its 2025 Halloween theme on social media with a brief video, saying something was “bubbling.” I surmised by the moss on the vehicles front end and its proximity to water, that this year’s vehicle costume would have something to do with the swamp.
That was correct.
In fact, I was fortunate enough to get access to Rivian’s 2025 Halloween theme a little early and I filmed all the sights and sounds for you in a video below. Behold, Spooky Swamp!
Rivian’s Halloween 2025 theme emerges from the swamp
Per Rivian, this year’s vehicle costume for Halloween 2025 was inspired by “Bayou Country” — the newest chapter in the American automaker’s “Real Adventures” campaign.
As you’ll see in the video, Rivian’s 2025 Halloween update delivers a number of selectable options, altering the colors and sounds both inside and out of the vehicle. Everything is activated from the Rivian app while your R1S or R1T is in park.
Here are the four exterior displays to choose from:
- Swamp Gas
- Player Piano
- Bayou Blast
- Scary Spirit
Furthermore, you can choose to activate these exterior displays manually, or via motion sensor in front of the vehicle.
Another creepy option this year is “spooky overhead lights” which, occasionally flashes your EV’s interior lights like you’re in a horror film. Very creepy.
Inside the Rivian cabin, you’ll find even more immersive Halloween ambiance for 2025, including four unique background tracks, providing a soundtrack to pumpkin-filled bayou animations across both display screens. Here are the four tracks, which I play for you in my video below.
- Bayou Blues
- Swampy Ambiance
- Cajun Crawl
- Ghostly Gloom
Last but not least, you can activate a slew of creepy sound effects while creepin’ out in the cabin. All with a simple tap. Here are those effects (these are not official names, just what I call them):
- Alligator growl
- Snake
- Skeleton Laugh
- Creaky Haunted House
- Frog
- Thunderstorm
Last but not least, as promised, is my video, shot for you to experience Rivian’s 2025 Halloween theme, regardless of whether you own or lease one. Note that I did deploy my own fog machine (yes I have a fog machine lying around the house, why don’t you?) So not all of the visual effects you see come with the Rivian update.
Happy Halloween!
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