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Bitcoin needs weekly close above K to avoid downside ahead of FOMC

Bitcoin needs to close above the key $81,000 weekly level to avoid more downside volatility ahead of next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which will offer investors more cues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy for 2025.

Bitcoin (BTC) price fell over 3% during the past week, to trade above $83,748 as of 9:33 a.m. in UTC, Cointelegraph Markets Pro data shows.

Bitcoin price continues to risk significant downside volatility due to growing macroeconomic uncertainty around global trade tariffs,  according to Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research.

Bitcoin needs weekly close above $81K to avoid downside ahead of FOMC

BTC/USD, 1-year chart. Source: Cointelegraph

Closing the week above $81,000 will be key to avoid more Bitcoin downside, the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding:

“The key level to watch for the weekly close is $81,000 range, holding above that would signal resilience, but if we see a drop below $76,000, it could invite more short-term selling pressure.”

The analyst’s comments come days ahead of the next FOMC meeting scheduled for March 19. Markets are currently pricing in a 98% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates steady, according to the latest estimates of the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Bitcoin needs weekly close above $81K to avoid downside ahead of FOMC

Source: CME Group’s FedWatch tool

The outcome of the meeting may significantly impact Bitcoin investor sentiment, said Lee, adding:

“The market largely expects the Fed to hold rates steady, but any unexpected hawkish signals could put pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets.”

“Even a dovish surprise, like a rate cut, might not be the immediate boost some are hoping for, as investors are still weighing macro uncertainties,” added the analyst.

Related: US Rep. Byron Donalds to introduce bill codifying Trump’s Bitcoin reserve

Bitcoin close above $85k may reignite investor optimism for more upside: analyst

Other analysts are seeing a silver lining in Bitcoin’s stagnant price action.

A weekly close above $85,000 may inspire more investor confidence and lead to the next breakout, according to Enmanuel Cardozo, market analyst at Brickken real-world asset tokenization platform.

The market analyst told Cointelegraph:

“Traders and investors alike are keeping a close eye on the $80,000 support and the $85,000–$90,000 resistance, with a break above the latter potentially sparking a strong upward movement.”

While Bitcoin’s short-term momentum may be limited by the upcoming economic releases, the regulatory developments around Trump’s Bitcoin reserve plan may gradually bring more market optimism and mass adoption, added the analyst.

Related: Bitcoin’s next catalyst: End of $36T US debt ceiling suspension

Trump’s Bitcoin reserve came one step closer to fruition on March 14, after US Representative Byron Donalds introduced a bill that seeks to ensure the Bitcoin reserve becomes a permanent fixture, preventing future administrations from dismantling it through executive action.

If the bill is passed, it would ensure that the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the US Digital Asset Stockpile could not be eliminated via executive actions by a future administration.

The bill will require at least 60 votes in the Senate and a House majority to pass. With Republicans holding a Senate majority — and amid a generally more crypto-friendly environment — the bill has a chance of passing.

Magazine: SCB tips $500K BTC, SEC delays Ether ETF options, and more: Hodler’s Digest, Feb. 23 – March 1

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The two big unknowns left up in the air after Starmer’s ‘coalition of the willing’ Ukraine summit

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The two big unknowns left up in the air after Starmer's 'coalition of the willing' Ukraine summit

There was one clear, united message from today’s virtual meeting of leaders – that they rejected Vladimir Putin’s “yes, but” approach to a ceasefire.

The “coalition of the willing” – the 27 leaders, plus NATO and the EU led by Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron – want the Russian president to mirror Ukraine’s pledge for a 30-day pause in fighting, in order to hammer out a sustainable peace deal.

Sir Keir made that very clear, and suggested the attendees at the meeting were behind this approach.

Ukraine war latest: Putin’s ceasefire conditions ‘not good enough’

The prime minister said: “Volodymyr [Zelenskyy] has committed to a 30-day unconditional ceasefire, but Mr Putin is trying to delay, saying there must be a painstaking study before a ceasefire can take place.

“Well, the world needs action, not a study, not empty words and conditions. So my message is very clear. Sooner or later, Putin will have to come to the table.”

Sir Keir Starmer holding a virtual meeting with European leaders. Pic: Downing Street
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‘Coalition of the willing’. Pic: Downing Street

There are two reasons for this challenge – an immediate end to fighting is a goal in itself, but many of those in today’s call, including Sir Keir, do not trust Mr Putin to uphold promises on peace and are trying to convince US President Donald Trump to be more clear-eyed about the Russian approach.

Challenging the Russian leader to follow the US request for a ceasefire and watching him refuse is designed to send a message to the White House as well as the Kremlin.

There were, however, bigger unknowns left hanging.

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One of which was the clear signal from Sir Keir that he is still relying on a US security guarantee in order to bring on board a “coalition of the willing” who might be able to provide troops to Ukraine.

There are, however, many that don’t think that that US security guarantee is coming in any substantial way, based on the noises coming out of the US.

That is a big problem for the PM, as government sources tell me that the scope and the remit of any potential peacekeeping force is determined by what protection the US might be able to provide.

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The second issue that is being sidestepped by Sir Keir is what any peace keeping might be able to do in practice.

UK troops, like those of any NATO country, cannot engage directly with Russia in combat for fear of triggering a much bigger conflagration.

So if not that, then what is their purpose – a question repeatedly asked by experts like the former national security adviser Lord Ricketts.

I put exactly this to the PM, but did not get an answer. He suggested that we were a long way away from getting an an answer, even though military chiefs also appear to be meeting to “operationalise” plans on Thursday.

How can they operationalise a plan that does not, and currently cannot, have a remit?

Today Sir Keir heralded the participation of Canada, Australia and New Zealand on the call, as part of the effort.

But if the remit of the coalition of the willing isn’t clear, how can it truly be effective?

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Starmer to host virtual meeting of ‘coalition of the willing’ – and demand ‘concrete commitments’ on Ukraine

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Starmer to host virtual meeting of 'coalition of the willing' - and demand 'concrete commitments' on Ukraine

Sir Keir Starmer will host a virtual meeting of world leaders today to discuss peacekeeping in Ukraine, and he will use the call to say that now is the time for “concrete commitments”, Downing Street has said.

Around 25 leaders are expected to join the call this morning, in which they will discuss in more detail the peacekeeping mission the prime minister has called the ‘coalition of the willing’.

Sir Keir will ask allies to continue to ramp up military support to Ukraine.

He will also say countries need to increase economic pressure on Russia in the short term, and be prepared to support an eventual peace deal over the long term, should an agreement be reached.

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Attendees will also receive an update on the discussions of defence ministers and military chiefs in Paris this week, and they will all set out details of their own efforts to unlock further military support for Ukraine.

Downing Street has confirmed that some European countries, the EU Commission, NATO, Canada, Ukraine, Australia and New Zealand are expected to join the virtual meeting.

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Is a ceasefire in Ukraine still viable?

Starmer: The world needs to see action

In a statement ahead of the call, the prime minister said: “We can’t allow President Putin to play games with President Trump’s deal.

“The Kremlin’s complete disregard for President Trump’s ceasefire proposal only serves to demonstrate that Putin is not serious about peace.

“If Russia finally comes to the table, then we must be ready to monitor a ceasefire to ensure it is a serious and enduring peace, if they don’t, then we need to strain every sinew to ramp up economic pressure on Russia to secure an end to this war.”

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Peace ‘must be secure’, PM tells Sky News

He went on to accuse the Russian president of “trying to delay” by “saying there must be a painstaking study before a ceasefire can take place”.

“The world needs to see action, not a study or empty words and pointless conditions,” he continued.

“My message to the Kremlin could not be clearer: stop the barbaric attacks on Ukraine, once and for all, and agree to a ceasefire now. Until then, we will keep working around the clock to deliver peace.”

Sir Keir has said Britain could send peacekeepers to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire deal, but has called on Washington to offer a security ‘backstop’ to those forces.

Russia casts doubt on potential ceasefire

The meeting comes after Ukraine backed the US’s proposal for a 30-day ceasefire.

But the Russian president has said “lots of questions” remain over that proposal, and that a ceasefire must lead to “long-term peace” which “would remove the initial reasons for the crisis”.

Read more:
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Putin lists ceasefire conditions

Moscow has reportedly also presented a “list of demands” to the US to end the war, which would include international recognition of Russia’s claim to Crimea and four Ukrainian provinces and an agreement that foreign troops not be deployed in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Mr Putin’s remarks were “very predictable” and “very manipulative”, adding that the Russian president was preparing to reject the ceasefire proposal he agreed with the US.

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‘We need to get a grip’ on welfare, chancellor says – as controversial cuts widely expected

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'We need to get a grip' on welfare, chancellor says - as controversial cuts widely expected

The chancellor has insisted that “we do need to get a grip” on the welfare budget, saying the “current system is not working for anyone”.

Rachel Reeves said the “bill for welfare is going up by billions of pounds in the next few years”, and argued the system should “get people into work so that more people can fulfil their potential”.

Her comments come ahead of an expected announcement next week of “radical” reforms to the welfare system, with many fearing drastic cuts to support for the most vulnerable.

Politics latest: UK needs to go ‘further and faster’ to grow the economy

Asked by broadcasters on Friday about those fears, the chancellor said: “Well, we’ll set out our plans for welfare reform. But it is absolutely clear that the current system is not working for anyone.

“It is not working for people who need support, it’s not working to get people into work so that more people can fulfil their potential, and it’s not working for the taxpayer when the bill for welfare is going up by billions of pounds in the next few years.

“So we do need to get a grip. We need to spend more on national defence, we need to reform our public services, and we need to reform our broken welfare system.”

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Welfare system ‘letting people down’

Ms Reeves’s comments come after the work and pensions secretary said the current system has locked “millions” out of work and called it “dysfunctional” as the system places a person in binary categories of either “fit for work” or “not fit for work”.

The government has promised to either reform or replace the Work Capability Assessment – which determines if a person is fit for work or not – as they say it currently drives people who want to work “to a life on benefits”.

Ministers have been priming MPs and the public for cuts to a ballooning welfare bill since the start of the year, with details expected next week ahead of an announcement in the chancellor’s spring statement on 26 March.

 Rachel Reeves during a visit Babcock in Rosyth. Pic: PA
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Rachel Reeves during a visit Babcock in Rosyth. Pic: PA

The expected welfare cuts

Ms Reeves is expected to announce several billion pounds of spending cuts after losing her £9.9bn headroom since the October budget, with the welfare budget a key target for cuts.

Fiscal headroom is the amount by which government can increase spending or cut taxes without breaking its own fiscal rules.

The welfare cuts are expected to include £5bn in savings by making it harder to qualify for Personal Independent Payments (PIP), which help people with the additional costs of their disability.

PIP payments next year are also expected to be frozen and the basic rate for Universal Credit paid to those searching for work, or in work, is expected to be increased while the rate for those judged as unfit for work will be cut.

The department for work and pensions said new figures show 1.8 million people are now considered too sick to look for work due to a “broken work capability assessment” so are on Universal Credit but getting no support to find work.

It said the number has almost quadrupled since the start of the pandemic when 360,000 were considered too sick to look for work.

Read more:
What welfare cuts could be announced?

Labour MPs criticise benefit cuts

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‘Government’s plan to cut welfare is terrifying’

Labour MPs concerned about cuts

A growing number of Labour MPs are publicly raising concerns and, in an unusual move, all 404 Labour MPs were asked to attend “welfare roundtables” in Downing Street with the Number 10 policy unit on Wednesday and Thursday.

On Wednesday, Sir Keir Starmer faced down Labour MPs unhappy over the rumoured welfare cuts – especially for disabled people.

Richard Burgon pleaded with him to make the “moral” choice, telling the Commons disabled people are “frightened” as he urged the PM to introduce a wealth tax instead of “making the poor and vulnerable pay”.

Sir Keir pledged to “protect those who need protecting”, but later added there is no “bottomless pit”.

He said the Tories “left a broken welfare system, which locks millions out of work, that is indefensible in my view, economically and morally”.

Sir Keir Starmer at PMQ's
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Sir Keir Starmer was asked about the welfare cuts at PMQs

Another Labour MP, John Slinger, urged the PM to reassure the Commons he will “provide compassion to those who can’t work”.

Labour MP Nadia Whittome told the BBC the government should impose a wealth tax instead of “placing that burden on disabled people who have already borne the brunt of 14 years of austerity”.

She added that she “can’t look her mum in the eye and support this”.

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