Bitcoin’s role as an inflation hedge depends on where one lives — Analyst

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2 days ago

March 15, 2025

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Bitcoin’s role as an inflation hedge depends on where one lives — Analyst

For years, inflation was primarily a concern for emerging markets, where volatile currencies and economic instability made rising prices a persistent challenge. However, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation became a global issue. Once-stable economies with historically low inflation were suddenly grappling with soaring costs, prompting investors to rethink how to preserve their wealth.

While gold and real estate have long been hailed as safe-haven assets, Bitcoin’s supporters argue that its fixed supply and decentralized nature make it the ultimate shield against inflation. But does the theory hold up?

The answer may depend largely on where one lives.

Bitcoin advocates emphasize its strict supply limit of 21 million coins as a key advantage in combating inflationary monetary policies. Unlike fiat currencies, which central banks can print in unlimited quantities, Bitcoin’s supply is predetermined by an algorithm, preventing any form of artificial expansion. This scarcity, they argue, makes Bitcoin akin to “digital gold” and a more reliable store of value than traditional government-issued money.

Several companies and even sovereign nations have embraced the idea, adding Bitcoin to their treasuries to hedge against fiat currency risk and inflation. The most notable example is El Salvador, which made global headlines in 2021 by becoming the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender. The government has since been steadily accumulating Bitcoin, making it a key component of its economic strategy. Companies like Strategy in the US and Metaplanet in Japan have followed suit, and now the United States is in the process of establishing its own Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

A Bitcoin investment strategy has paid off so far

So far, the corporate and government Bitcoin investment strategy has paid off as BTC outperformed the S&P 500 and gold futures since the early 2020s before inflation surged in the United States.

More recently, however, that strong performance has shown signs of moderation. Bitcoin remains a strong performer over the past 12 months, and while BTC’s gains outpace consumer inflation, economists caution that past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indeed, some studies suggest a correlation between cryptocurrency returns and changes in inflation expectations is far from consistent over time.

Bitcoin’s role as an inflation hedge depends on where one lives — Analyst

Returns over the past 12 months. Source: Truflation.

Bitcoin’s role as an inflation hedge remains uncertain

Unlike traditional inflation hedges such as gold, Bitcoin is still a relatively new asset. Its role as a hedge remains uncertain, especially considering that widespread adoption has only gained traction in recent years.

Despite high inflation in recent years, Bitcoin’s price has fluctuated wildly, often correlating more with risk assets like tech stocks than with traditional inflation hedges like gold.

A recent study published in the Journal of Economics and Business found that Bitcoin’s ability to hedge inflation has weakened over time, particularly as institutional adoption grew. In 2022, when US inflation hit a 40-year high, Bitcoin lost more than 60% of its value, while gold, a traditional inflation hedge, remained relatively stable.

For this reason, some analysts say that Bitcoin’s price may be driven more by investor sentiment and liquidity conditions than by macroeconomic fundamentals like inflation. When the risk appetite is strong, Bitcoin rallies. But when markets are fearful, Bitcoin often crashes alongside stocks.

In a Journal of Economics and Business study, authors Harold Rodriguez and Jefferson Colombo said,

“Based on monthly data between August 2010 and January 2023, the results indicate that Bitcoin returns increase significantly after a positive inflationary shock, corroborating empirical evidence that Bitcoin can act as an inflation hedge.”

However, they noted that Bitcoin’s inflationary hedging property was stronger in the early days when institutional adoption of BTC was not as prevalent. Both researchers agreed that “[…]Bitcoin’s inflation-hedging property is context-specific and likely diminishes as it achieves broader adoption and becomes more integrated into mainstream financial markets.”

“So far, it has acted as an inflation hedge—but it’s not a black-and-white case. It’s more of a cyclical (phenomenon),” Robert Walden, head of trading at Abra, told Cointelegraph.

Walden said,

“For Bitcoin to be a true inflation hedge, it would need to consistently outpace inflation year after year with its returns. However, due to its parabolic nature, its performance tends to be highly asymmetric over time.”

Bitcoin’s movement right now, Walden said, is more about market positioning than inflation hedging—it’s about capital flows and interest rates.”

Argentina and Turkey seek financial refuge in crypto

In economies suffering from runaway inflation and strict capital controls, Bitcoin has proven to be a valuable tool for preserving wealth. Argentina and Turkey, two countries with persistent inflation throughout recent decades, illustrate this dynamic well.

Argentina has long grappled with recurring financial crises and soaring inflation. While inflation has shown signs of improvement very recently, locals have historically turned to cryptocurrency as a way to bypass financial restrictions and protect their wealth from currency depreciation.

A recent Coinbase survey found that 87% of Argentinians believe crypto and blockchain technology can enhance their financial independence, while nearly three in four respondents see crypto as a solution to challenges like inflation and high transaction costs.

With a population of 45 million, Argentina has become a hotbed for crypto adoption, with Coinbase reporting that as many as five million Argentinians use digital assets daily.

“Economic freedom is a cornerstone of prosperity, and we are proud to bring secure, transparent, and reliable crypto services to Argentina,” said Fabio Plein, Director for the Americas at Coinbase.

“For many Argentinians, crypto isn’t just an investment, it’s a necessity for regaining control over their financial futures.”

“People in Argentina don’t trust the peso. They are always looking for ways to store value outside of the local currency,” Julián Colombo, a senior director at Bitso, a major Latin American cryptocurrency exchange, told Cointelegraph.

“Bitcoin and stablecoins allow them to bypass capital controls and protect their savings from devaluation.”

Beyond individual investors, businesses in Argentina are also using Bitcoin and stablecoins to protect revenue and conduct international transactions. Some workers even opt to receive part of their salaries in cryptocurrency to safeguard their earnings from inflation.

According to economist and crypto analyst Natalia Motyl,

“Currency restrictions and capital controls imposed in recent years have made access to US dollars increasingly difficult amid high inflation and a crisis of confidence in the Argentine peso. In this environment, cryptocurrencies have emerged as a viable alternative for preserving the value of money, allowing individuals and businesses to bypass the limitations of the traditional financial system.”

While Bitcoin’s effectiveness as an inflation hedge is still up for debate, stablecoins have become a more practical solution in high-inflation economies, particularly those pegged to the US dollar.

Relative to its economic size, Turkey has emerged as a hotspot for stablecoin transactions. In the year leading up to March 2024, purchases alone accounted for 4.3% of GDP. This digital currency boom, fueled by years of double-digit inflation—peaking at 85% in 2022—and a more than 80% plunge in the lira against the dollar over the past five years, gained momentum during the pandemic.

Turkey’s Bitcoin adoption proves citizens drive adoption, not governments

Although Turkey allows its citizens to buy, hold, and trade crypto, the use of digital currencies for payments has been banned since 2021 when the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey prohibited “any direct or indirect usage of crypto assets in payment services and electronic money issuance.” Nevertheless, crypto adoption in Turkey is still evident, with an increasing number of Turkish banks offering crypto services and shops and ATMs providing crypto exchange options.

High inflation rates backed the erosion of the Turkish lira’s value, which lost nearly 60% of its purchasing power as inflation soared to 85.5% between 2021 and 2023. This led many Turkish citizens to turn to Bitcoin as a store of value and a medium of exchange.

While some argue that Bitcoin’s scarcity bodes well for long-term appreciation, potentially outpacing consumer inflation, its high volatility and recurring correlation with tech-heavy, risk-associated indexes like the Nasdaq in recent times suggest that its performance as a pure inflation hedge remains mixed.

However, in inflation-ridden nations like Argentina and Turkey, where local currencies have collapsed in value, the “digital gold” has undeniably served as a crucial avenue of escape from local currencies, preserving purchasing power in ways traditional fiat cannot.

Although Bitcoin is still a nascent asset, and its effectiveness as a hedge requires further study, one thing remains clear—so far, it has significantly outperformed consumer inflation. For Bitcoin enthusiasts, that alone is reason enough to celebrate.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Politics

Hashdex amends S-1 for crypto index ETF, adds seven altcoins

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2 hours ago

March 17, 2025

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Hashdex amends S-1 for crypto index ETF, adds seven altcoins

Asset manager Hashdex has amended its S-1 regulatory filing for its cryptocurrency index exchange-traded fund (ETF) to include seven altcoins in addition to Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), according to a March 14 filing.

The revision proposes adding seven specific altcoins to the index ETF — Solana (SOL), XRP (XRP), Cardano (ADA), Chainlink (LINK), Avalanche (AVAX), Litecoin (LTC), and Uniswap (UNI). As of March 17, the Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index US ETF holds only Bitcoin and Ether.

Previous versions of Hashdex’s S-1 suggested the possibility of adding other cryptocurrencies in the future but didn’t specify which ones.

According to the filing, the proposed altcoins additions “are decentralized peer-to-peer computer systems that rely on public key cryptography for security, and their values are primarily influenced by market supply and demand.”

The revised filing signals how ETF issuers are accelerating planned crypto product rollouts now that US President Donald Trump has instructed federal regulators to take a more lenient stance on digital asset regulation.

As part of the transition, the ETF plans to switch its reference index from the Nasdaq Crypto US Index — which only tracks BTC and ETH — to the more comprehensive Nasdaq Crypto Index, the filing said.

The asset manager did not specify when it plans to make the change. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) must sign off on the proposed changes before they can take effect.

Accelerating approvals

In December, the SEC gave the green light to both Hashdex and Franklin Templeton’s respective Bitcoin and Ether index ETFs.

Both ETFs were listed in February, initially drawing relatively modest inflows, data shows. They are the first US ETFs aiming to offer investors a one-stop-shop diversified crypto index.

Asset manager Grayscale has also applied to convert its Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund to an ETF. Created in 2018, the fund holds a crypto index portfolio comprising BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP, among others.

Industry analysts say crypto index ETFs are the next big focus for issuers after ETFs holding BTC and ETH listed in January and July, respectively.

“The next logical step is index ETFs because indices are efficient for investors — just like how people buy the S&P 500 in an ETF. This will be the same in crypto,” Katalin Tischhauser, head of investment research at crypto bank Sygnum, told Cointelegraph in August.

In February, the SEC acknowledged more than a dozen exchange filings related to cryptocurrency ETFs, according to records.

The filings, submitted by Cboe and other exchanges, addressed proposed rule changes concerning staking, options, in-kind redemptions and new types of altcoin funds.

Magazine: US enforcement agencies are turning up the heat on crypto-related crime

Politics

New BITCOIN Act would allow US reserve to exceed 1M: Law Decoded

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3 hours ago

March 17, 2025

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New BITCOIN Act would allow US reserve to exceed 1M: Law Decoded

The newly reintroduced Boosting Innovation, Technology, and Competitiveness through Optimized Investment Nationwide (BITCOIN) Act of 2025 by Senator Cynthia Lummis would allow the United States to potentially hold over 1 million Bitcoin (BTC) in its crypto reserves.

The bill directs the government to buy 200,000 BTC annually over five years, to be paid for with existing funds within the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department.

If signed into law, the act would allow the US to hold more than 1 million BTC as long as the assets are acquired through lawful means other than direct purchases, including criminal or civil forfeitures, gifts, or transfers from federal agencies.

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Democratic lawmaker urges Treasury to cease Trump’s Bitcoin reserve plans

US Representative Gerald Connolly, a Democrat from Michigan, called on the Treasury to cease its efforts to create a crypto reserve in the United States. The lawmaker said there were conflicts of interest with US President Donald Trump and argued that the reserve would not benefit Americans.

Connolly criticized the reserve in a letter addressed to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, arguing that there’s no “discernible benefit” to Americans and that the move would instead make Trump and his donors richer.

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Argentine lawyer requests Interpol red notice for LIBRA creator: Report

Argentine lawyer Gregorio Dalbon is seeking an Interpol Red Notice for Hayden Davis, the co-creator of the LIBRA token, which caused a political scandal in Argentina.

Dalbon submitted a request, seeking the Red Notice, to prosecutor Eduardo Taiano and judge María Servini, who are investigating the involvement of President Javier Milei in the memecoin project.

In a filing, the lawyer said there’s a procedural risk if Davis remains free. The lawyer argued that Davis could have access to funds that might allow him to go into hiding or flee to the US.

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America must back pro-stablecoin laws, reject CBDCs — US Rep. Emmer

In a House Financial Services Committee hearing, US Representative Tom Emmer said that central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) threaten American values. The lawmaker called on Congress to pass his CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act to block future administrations from launching a CBDC without congressional approval.

Emmer said at the hearing that CBDC technology is “inherently un-American,” adding that allowing unelected bureaucrats to issue a CBDC could “upend the American way of life.”

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Texas lawmaker seeks to cap state’s proposed BTC purchases at $250 million

Ron Reynolds, a Democratic state representative in Texas, has proposed a cap for the state’s investment in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies.

The lawmaker proposed in a bill that the state’s comptroller should not be allowed to invest more than $250 million in crypto. The bill also directs Texas municipalities or counties to not invest more than $10 million in crypto.

The proposed bill follows the Texas Senate’s approval of legislation establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the state.

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Politics

XRP’s role in US Digital Asset Stockpile raises questions on token utility — Does it belong?

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3 hours ago

March 17, 2025

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XRP’s role in US Digital Asset Stockpile raises questions on token utility — Does it belong?

Ripple’s XRP (XRP), the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, gained national recognition after President Donald Trump mentioned the “valuable cryptocurrency” alongside BTC, ETH, SOL, and ADA as part of a planned US strategic crypto reserve.

Trump’s executive order on March 6 established a new structure for the altcoins — the Digital Asset Stockpile, managed by the Treasury.

While the crypto community remains divided on whether XRP is truly as valuable as President Trump suggests, a closer look at the altcoin’s utility is warranted.

XRP’s potential role in banking

Launched in 2012 by Ripple Labs, the XRP Ledger (XRPL) was designed for interbank settlements. It initially offered three enterprise solutions: xRapid, xCurrent, and xVia, all later rebranded under the RippleNet umbrella. XCurrent is real-time messaging and settlement between banks, xVia is a payment interface allowing financial institutions to send payments through RippleNet, and xRapid, now part of On-Demand Liquidity (ODL), facilitates cross-border transactions.

Only ODL actually requires XRP; the other services allow banks to use RippleNet without ever holding the token. This means bank adoption of Ripple technology does not always drive XRP’s price.

Some of the world’s largest banks have used xCurrent and xVia, including American Express, Santander, Bank of America, and UBS. There is less data on the entities that use XRP-powered ODL service. Known adopters include SBI Remit, a major Japanese remittance provider, and Tranglo, a leading remittance company in Southeast Asia.

XRP’s role in Web3

XRP is also used as a gas token. However, unlike the Ethereum network, where fees go to validators, a small amount of XRP is burned as an anti-spam mechanism.

XRP’s role in Web3 is minimal. Unlike Ethereum, Ripple does not support complex smart contracts or DApps. It offers only basic Web3 functionality, such as a token issuance mechanism and native NFT support under the XLS-20 standard, introduced in 2022.

The XRPL Web3 ecosystem is small. Its modest DeFi sector holds $80 million in total value locked (TVL), according to DefiLlama. XRPL’s tokens have a combined market cap of $468 million, according to Xrpl.to. Most of them are DEX tokens (SOLO) and memes (XRPM), as well as wrapped BTC and stablecoins.

So far, XRPL’s Web3 sector remains niche and trails true smart contract platforms like Ethereum and Solana.

Crypto pundits split hairs on XRP’s role in a strategic reserve

Ripple Labs representatives have long advocated for equal treatment of cryptocurrencies, with CEO Brad Garlinghouse reiterating this on Jan. 27.

Garlinghouse said,

“We live in a multichain world, and I’ve advocated for a level-playing field instead of one token versus another. If a government digital asset reserve is created—I believe it should be representative of the industry, not just one token (whether it be BTC, XRP or anything else).”

However, not all cryptocurrencies serve the same purpose. Bitcoin’s primary role is to be a “geopolitically neutral asset like gold,” in the words of crypto analyst Willy Woo. XRP’s purpose remains less clear, but few in the crypto space would argue that it could qualify as independent money.

This is primarily due to one of Ripple’s most uncomfortable aspects—its permissioned nature. Unlike Bitcoin or Ethereum, Ripple does not rely on miners or staked tokens to secure the network. Instead, it uses a Unique Node List—a group of trusted validators responsible for approving transactions. While this optimizes speed and efficiency, it raises concerns about censorship, corruption, and security risks.

Bitcoin proponent and co-founder of Casa Jameson Lopp didn’t hold back when discussing XRP’s potential:

“There’s Bitcoin, then there’s Crypto, then there’s Ripple. Ripple has attacked Bitcoin at a level rivaled only by BSV’s lawsuits. Ripple explicitly wants to power CBDCs. They have always been focused on servicing banks. Few projects are as antithetical to Bitcoin.”

There’s no love lost between Bitcoiners and Ripple supporters, especially after Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen partnered with Greenpeace to fund an anti-Bitcoin campaign.

However, Lopp’s comparison to CBDCs holds some weight, given XRPL’s permissioned nature. It reflects a common view in the crypto community that XRP functions more like a banking tool than a truly independent cryptocurrency.

While the XRPL blockchain sees widespread use in banking, XRP’s utility remains a point of concern. It is underscored by the fact that approximately 55% of the 100 billion pre-mined coins are still held by Ripple Labs. This concentration raises concerns about potential market manipulation and the coin’s long-term stability.