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This week government figures are likely to show the prison population back to where it was before the last early release scheme. 

But even though hundreds of prisoners have served only 40% of their sentences, there is a cohort of the prison population who have served extended sentences, years beyond their minimum term.

IPP sentences (imprisonment for public protection) were introduced in 2005 and abolished in 2012. But the law wasn’t backdated, so the legacy of prisoners serving indefinite sentences continues.

Andy Logan
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Andy Logan, 45, from Kent, has had two IPPs

“It’s broken me as a man,” says Andy Logan. The burly 45-year-old from Kent has spent most of the last 20 years in jail on an IPP sentence, now he won’t leave home without his mother.

“I don’t go out, I’ve got no social circle,” he says. “I’m not in no family photographs, it’s like Back To The Future when he gets erased from the photos, I’m not there. I’m a ghost – I’ve been a ghost for 20 years.”

He was given IPP sentences twice, for two cashpoint robberies where he showed his victims a knife but didn’t use it. The minimum terms for each crime were two-and-a-half years and three years, but each time he spent far longer behind bars, the first time four years, then seven years. But that wasn’t the end of it.

After his release, Andy’s IPP hung over him. He could be recalled for any misdemeanour, including drinking too much alcohol, taking drugs, or missing probation appointments.

Over the next eight years he was recalled six times and would spend months behind bars waiting for a decision. His recall prison time alone has amounted to nearly four years. Twice the recalls were later deemed “unjustified”.

Andy Logan
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Andy is so fearful of recall, he doesn’t go out without his mother

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“I started my sentence with people who murdered people – and some of them got out before me,” says Andy.

“I lost all hope. I thought I’d never get out. I took drugs for four years. I exploded in weight. Self-harm started happening and I’d never self-harmed in my life.”

Andy lifts up his sleeve to reveal a red scar. “That one, I nearly did the artery on my last recall. I was just so frustrated I wanted to die.”

His lawyer Catherine Bond says he was often recalled for minor breaches.

She said: “One was in 2020 – Andy does struggle with alcohol addiction. He had started drinking more at that point.

“He kept his probation officer informed, but his probation officer recalled him anyway, and the parole board found the recall was unjustified because although there was alcohol use, that doesn’t necessarily equate to any increased risk.”

Andy's mother holds a picture of him as a child
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Andy’s mother holds a picture of him as a child

Each IPP recall is ‘re-traumatising’

Ms Bond says the recalls have damaged Andy’s mental health.

“Each time you go back in there you don’t know when you are going to get back out so the whole process is re-traumatising, and I think it can make it more difficult for people to resettle when they get back out so each recall can increase the risk of further recalls,” she said.

But she also has IPP clients who’ve never been released – one jailed in 2005.

“It was a robbery – threat of violence. I’m not minimising that in any way but 20 years on it’s totally disproportionate and these are people’s lives,” she said.

“Of course, they’ve done something wrong but effectively it is the misfortune of having committed an offence at a particular time… meant they are in prison for this excessive amount of time.”

The number of unreleased prisoners on IPP has fallen from 5,000 in 2015 to 1,180 in early 2024. Around 700 of those have served 10 years longer than their minimum term.

Source: His Majesty's Prison and Probation Service
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Source: His Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service

The number recalled is rising with over 1,600 currently back in jail, mostly for licence breaches. The average time spent imprisoned on recall has risen dramatically from 11 months to around 26 months.

Andy is so fearful of recall, he doesn’t go out without his mother Betty. As Betty drives him to meet his probation officer, he says: “What if someone takes a dislike to me and says ‘who are you looking at?’ and makes an allegation against me – I’m in prison. So, I’m just terrified.”

Andy Logan's mother Betty
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Andy’s mother Betty

But Andy hopes this could be one of his last visits to probation. Until recently, any IPP prisoner would have to wait at least 10 years after their release from prison before their licence could even be considered for removal by a parole board – but in February this year that time period was reduced to three years. For Andy that means in the next few months he could finally get off it.

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February: Prison recall population at record level

A Ministry of Justice (MoJ) spokesperson said: “It is right that IPP sentences were abolished. With public protection as the number one priority, the lord chancellor is working with organisations and campaign groups to ensure appropriate action is taken to support those still serving these sentences, such as improved access to mental health support and rehabilitation programmes.

“An independent report from His Majesty’s Inspectorate of Prisons found the majority of recall decisions were necessary to keep our streets safe. However, to avoid waiting unnecessarily for parole board hearings, eligible IPP prisoners can now be considered for release earlier after a thorough risk assessment.”

The prison population is bursting and is set to run out of space within a year according to internal forecasts from the MoJ. But some of those taking up space – probably shouldn’t still be there.

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The English town where almost a third of working-age people are economically inactive

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The English town where almost a third of working-age people are economically inactive

On a hilltop above Ashfield, a sculpture of a miner watches over the local towns.

In a part of Nottinghamshire with a proud mining heritage, almost a third of working-age people are now economically inactive.

It’s places like this where they’re bracing for the impact of welfare reform.

Holly, 17, who dropped out of college due to long term condition
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‘I practically live off’ personal independence payments, says Holly

A group of young people meet here in a local park. They’re among the UK’s almost a million so-called NEETS – people aged 16-24 not in employment, education or training.

Holly, 17, had to drop out of college for having too much time off and explained she has a long-term condition that makes her sick, as well as autism and ADHD.

“I’m still living with my parents but I’m also on PIP,” she says. She’s concerned that the government is expected to tighten eligibility for PIP – personal independence payments – as part of cuts to sickness and disability benefits.

“It shouldn’t happen because I practically live off of it,” she says. “I use it to get around – transport – because I struggle to get buses and trains and stuff so I get Ubers a lot which can be quite pricey.”

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A sculpture of a miner above Ashfield
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It’s places like Ashfield, in Nottinghamshire, that are bracing for the government’s welfare reforms

She accepts that as a PIP claimant, she can work and says she’s been looking for jobs. “I do want to work,” she insists.

“It’s just the fact that I don’t know if I could work full time with it, and because I’m off sick a lot, I just don’t know if I’d be able to hold a job.”

It’s that concern that’s led her to pursue another option.

“I’m working on getting a fit note at the moment,” she says, referring to a note from her doctor that could lead to her being signed off.

Holly, 17, who dropped out of college due to long term condition
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‘Because I’m off sick a lot, I just don’t know if I’d be able to hold a job’

It would mean she’d get more money in benefits – around double the amount a jobseeker receives with no condition to look for work – but she’d then risk losing it if she got a job, a situation she believes is perverse.

“If you have a fit note then it tells you that you cannot work ever – you shouldn’t be looking for a job – which I think is wrong,” she says.

Other young people who are looking for jobs here say when they apply for work they often don’t hear back.

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Big benefits cuts are imminent – here’s what to expect

Pippa Carter, the director of the Inspire and Achieve Foundation, which works with more than 200 young people a year, says: “Mental health is the largest barrier with our young people.

“And COVID was an impact as well. They’re just not really able to get out of their rooms. They haven’t got that social confidence.

“And then if you then layer on top of that the benefits and welfare system… if they are signed off sick, for example, with their struggling mental health, they’re then stopped from trying to get employment and take steps forward.”

Pippa Carter, the director of the Inspire and Achieve Foundation
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Pippa Carter tells Sky News young people ‘haven’t got that social confidence’

Many here would welcome a system that gives more help to young people taking their first steps into the workplace.

However, others worry that changes to health-related benefits will push some of society’s most vulnerable people deeper into poverty.

A sculpture of a miner above Ashfield
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It’s places like Ashfield, in Nottinghamshire, that are bracing for the government’s welfare reforms

In the centre of Sutton in Ashfield, former care assistant Allison leans on a Zimmer frame as she walks along the high street.

Now 59, she says she was signed off sick with a range of health conditions around 15 years ago and claims PIP.

Recently, life has become a struggle. “We did use a food bank the other day for the first time, so degrading,” she says.

Former care assistant Allison, in Sutton, Ashfield
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Allison, almost 60, is afraid a cut to benefits would force her to use food banks ‘every week’

But she’s afraid that cuts to benefits would force her to rely on it.

“I’d be going there every week, I’d have to because I wouldn’t be able to survive.”

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King and Queen set to meet Pope next month despite pontiff’s ill health

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King and Queen set to meet Pope next month despite pontiff's ill health

The King and Queen’s planned state visit to the Vatican to meet Pope Francis will go ahead despite his continuing ill health.

The palace confirmed that King Charles has written privately to the pontiff since he was admitted to hospital in February, and the historic gathering is still scheduled to take place in Rome in early April.

A Buckingham Palace source said they had shared “our hopes and prayers that Pope Francis’s health will enable the visit to go ahead”, although they signalled that alterations would be made to the visit if needed.

Pope Francis at an audience at the Vatican in February. Pic: REUTERS/Ciro De Luca
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Pope Francis at an audience at the Vatican in February. Pic: Reuters

Pope Francis in the chapel of the apartment on the tenth floor of the Policlinico Gemelli. Pic: Holy See Press Office
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Pope Francis in the first photo released since the pontiff was admitted to hospital. Pic: Holy See Press Office

Outlining details of the planned meeting, a Buckingham Palace spokesperson said: “On Tuesday 8 April, and clearly subject to Pope Francis’s health, their majesties will visit the Holy See to join Pope Francis in celebrating the 2025 jubilee.

“Held traditionally once every 25 years, the jubilee is a special year for the Catholic Church; a year of reconciliation, prayer and walking together as ‘Pilgrims of Hope’, which is the jubilee’s theme.

“The King and Queen will have an audience with Pope Francis. Their Majesties will also attend a service in the Sistine Chapel, focused on the theme of ‘care for creation’, reflecting Pope Francis’s and His Majesty’s long-standing commitment to nature.”

The tour, from 7 to 10 April, will include two state visits to Rome and Ravenna in Italy, and the Holy See – the government of the Roman Catholic Church – in the Vatican.

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Behind the scenes at the Vatican

Charles will pass two milestones, becoming the first British monarch to visit the Papal Basilica of St Paul Outside the Walls, the resting place of St Paul since the reformation, and address both houses of Italy’s parliament.

The King will hold audiences with Italy’s President Sergio Mattarella and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and the monarch and his wife will attend a black-tie state banquet at the Palazzo Quirinale.

At the weekend, the Vatican released the first photograph of the Pope since he was admitted to hospital on 14 February with a severe case of bronchitis, which developed into double pneumonia.

Medical staff said last week that the pontiff, 88, was no longer in a critical, life-threatening condition, but added that his condition remained complex due to his age, lack of mobility and the loss of part of a lung as a young man.

Other highlights of the April trip will see the UK and Italy’s defence co-operation recognised by a joint flypast over Rome by the Italian Air Force’s aerobatic team, Frecce Tricolori, and the RAF’s Red Arrows.

In Ravenna, near Bologna, Charles and Camilla will mark the 80th anniversary of the province’s liberation from Nazi occupation by Allied forces on 10 April 1945, during a town hall reception.

The couple will also mark their 20th wedding anniversary on 9 April.

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Big benefits cuts are imminent – here’s what to expect and why it could be just the start

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Big benefits cuts are imminent - here's what to expect and why it could be just the start

Those with “milder mental health” issues and “lower-level physical conditions” could see their disability benefits cut, as the government looks to shave £6bn off the welfare bill.

Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary, is expected to target sickness and disability benefit payments for savings on Tuesday, which comes ahead of the spring statement next Wednesday.

Politics latest: Welfare reforms ‘imminent’

Her welfare reform green paper will arrive after Downing Street insisted there is a “moral and an economic case for fixing our broken system”.

Government figures argue the rising sickness and disability bill, which has ballooned since the pandemic, is unsustainable and will “leave the welfare state losing legitimacy” in the eyes of the wider public if not dealt with.

The cuts come as the chancellor eyes a hole in the public finances on the back of lower than expected growth and rising borrowing costs, with the £9.9bn headroom she had at the budget in October now wiped out.

Rachel Reeves’ self-imposed fiscal rules mean day-to-day government spending must be covered by tax revenue by 2029-30, which leaves her needing billions of pounds in spending cuts (after ruling out further tax rises, her other option).

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Welfare reforms will ensure ‘trust in system’

What changes should we expect?

Ms Kendall is expected to target personal independence payments (PIP) – one of the main forms of disability benefits for those with long-term illnesses or disabilities – amid a spike in claimants.

The PIP bill has grown from £13.7bn a year before the pandemic to £21.8bn in the current financial year, and is set to increase to £34.1bn by the end of the decade.

The number of people claiming this disability benefit is projected to more than double from two million to 4.3 million.

The work and pensions secretary will tell MPs that Labour will protect those who have a serious condition and can’t work, and the government’s rowed back from plans to freeze PIP payments after backlash from its backbench MPs.

These payments are now expected to rise in line with inflation, but the eligibility criteria will be tightened to whittle back the number of people eligible to claim.

One government figure told me it would result in some conditions, such as “milder mental health” or “lower-level physical conditions”, being ineligible for PIP.

But they stressed that those with more severe conditions and who are never going to be able to work would be protected and cared for.

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Why Labour MPs are so uncomfortable

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Why is there a surge in youth unemployment?

The key principles driving reforms

The changes are likely to draw criticism from some MPs, though one senior Labour source said they didn’t think there would be any ministerial resignations over the benefit announcements.

Another Labour figure told me they would be “massively shocked” if there were resignations.

However, a number of Labour MPs have voiced their concerns, as has the Manchester mayor Andy Burnham.

In a bid to assuage MPs, the work and pensions secretary is also expected to earmark £1bn of savings into employment support programmes as she frames the reforms around three clear principles.

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The first will be to prevent people from falling into long-term economic inactivity with a better support offer to get people back into work quickly.

The second will be to change the incentive systems to move people away from welfare dependency.

This could see Ms Kendall slash the highest level of incapacity benefit for working age people who have an illness or disability that limits their ability to work, while increasing the basic rate of support for those out of work (universal credit).

This is because the lower level of unemployment benefit has led to more people claiming for additional incapacity and disability benefits, while disincentivising them to try to find work.

The government will also announce a “right to try” scheme, allowing those on incapacity benefits to try returning to work without the risk of losing their benefits, as happens in the current system.

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Will there be a backlash over benefits?

‘I don’t think they go far enough’

But with one in 10 working age people claiming sickness benefits, and one in eight young people not in education, employment or training, the reforms on Tuesday could be just the start of bigger changes – and potentially bigger political battles.

The cost of long-term sickness and disability benefits for working-age people has risen by about £20bn since the pandemic to about £48bn, and is forecast to hit almost £100bn by 2030.

“People are trapped on benefits and the bill is getting out of hand,” said one government figure.

“We are currently spending more than three times the annual policing bill on these benefits. It’s getting out of hand.

“I don’t think the reforms go far enough, and I don’t think people have clocked the size of the numbers going on here.”

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