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The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is making major changes to how it gathers some of the UK’s most important data. These figures shape decisions on wages, benefits, and public spending.

One of the biggest shifts involves how inflation is measured, which is changing on Tuesday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks the cost of everyday essentials like food, energy, and transport, is being updated with a new system that aims to capture price changes more accurately.

This matters because inflation figures influence the Bank of England’s decisions on interest rates, which in turn affect the cost of borrowing, savings, and even rent.

For workers, inflation also plays a role in wage negotiations. This is because when prices rise, there’s often pressure on employers and the government to increase salaries, pensions, and benefits.

The ONS will continue sending researchers to shops to check prices and speak to retailers, but from this month, a new digital system will speed up how the data is processed.

It’s also testing a new method using real checkout data from supermarkets. Instead of just recording shelf prices, it will track what people actually pay, including discounts from loyalty schemes like Clubcard and Nectar. This should give a more accurate picture of real spending habits, with full rollout expected by 2026.

The change has been brought about over concerns the previous method measured price changes but failed to capture how consumers changed what they buy as a result.

Take the example of butter, which has gone up in price by 18% in the past year. That increase was reflected in the CPI, influencing the overall inflation figure. However, many consumers will have switched to a dairy spread or margarine rather than keep paying for the more expensive butter.

How is inflation data changing?

While this should improve inflation accuracy, tracking individual product prices may become harder. Sky News’ Spending Calculator, which helps users track price changes, will need updates and won’t be refreshed this month.

An ONS spokesperson said: “From next year we will be replacing much of the physical price collection in supermarkets with information from supermarket tills. While we won’t know what each consumer has bought, we will know both the price and quality of items sold in shops up and down the country, marking a step-change in our understanding of inflation and consumer behaviour.”

Data reliability concerns prompt changes

While these changes to the inflation data are intended to better reflect consumer behaviour, other changes are being introduced due to concerns over reliability.

One of the most affected datasets is the Labour Force Survey (LFS), the UK’s largest household study, which measures the state of the labour market and helps shape decisions on interest rates and employment. However, plummeting response rates mean its reliability is now in question.

“I think policymakers just don’t have as much trust or confidence in the LFS, so they have to find other ways to get the clear insights they used to rely on the LFS for,” said Michael McMahon, professor of economics at Oxford and former Bank of England economist.

“The Bank of England has a set of regional agents who will go out and speak to businesses. They’ll speak to local bodies and even in some cases do citizens’ panels. They were doing that before the LFS issue. It’s just they have to rely on these alternatives more, because they can rely less on the LFS.”

The pandemic accelerated these issues when face-to-face LFS interviews were replaced with phone surveys, causing a sharp drop in participation.

Internal ONS emails, revealed by the Financial Times, showed how one key estimate’s sample size had “collapsed to only five individuals” — too small for reliable statistics.

Resolution Foundation analysis shows that HMRC payroll and self-employment data aligned with LFS estimates before 2020 but after the pandemic began to diverge.

To address this, the ONS is developing the Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS), using shorter questionnaires and shifting primarily to online responses, with some face-to-face interviews remaining.

Survey issues aren’t just affecting job figures, they’re also complicating GDP estimates.

The Living Costs and Food Survey (LCF), which tracks incomes and spending and is used for GDP estimates, has seen a sharp drop in response rates, with fewer than one in five forms completed as of December 2024. The survey is particularly time-consuming, requiring participants to log spending for two weeks. A new digital tool allowing receipts to be scanned is in development but won’t launch until late 2025.

For policymakers, these delays are frustrating. “It’s certainly a moment of embarrassment: the idea that the chancellor and the governor [of the Bank of England] go to G7 meetings, talk to other advanced economies, and explain why we don’t know how our labour market is doing with any great confidence,” said McMahon.

Flawed migration data

Recent improvements to the way the ONS gathers migration data also highlight significant failings in the recent past.

Long-term migration estimates are a vital part of public debate and key policy decisions.

Before COVID, migration estimates relied on traveller surveys at airports and ports. These surveys frequently underestimated migration levels, as they depended on people’s own predictions about how long they would stay in the UK.

Under this method, net migration was seen to have peaked in December 2022, at 764,000.

Now, the ONS has shifted to using visa records, higher education statistics, and tax data to provide a clearer picture. Under this new method, it has become clear that net migration has been much higher than previously thought, peaking at 906,000 in June 2023.

Overall, the ONS increased its estimate for net migration in 2023 by more than 25%.

However, while these changes are making migration data more reliable, they also highlight how much of the political debate on immigration in recent years has been built on incomplete figures. The transition to administrative data is a step forward, but further refinements will be needed to ensure long-term accuracy.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open-source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Revenues of water company to be cut by regulator Ofwat

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Revenues of water company to be cut by regulator Ofwat

The UK’s biggest water supplier has been dealt another blow as the regulator decided to reduce its income.

Thames Water, which supplies 16 million people in England, has been told by the watchdog Ofwat its revenues will be cut by more than £187m.

It comes as the utility struggles under a £17.6bn debt pile and the government has lined up insolvency practitioners for its potential collapse.

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Overall, water firms face a sector-wide revenue reduction of nearly £309m as a result of Ofwat’s determination. Thames Water’s £187.1m cut is the largest revenue reduction.

This will take effect from next year and up to 2030 as part of water companies’ regulator-approved five-year spending and investment plans.

The downward revenue revision has been made as Ofwat believes the companies will perform better than first thought and therefore require less money.

More on Thames Water

Better financial performance is ultimately good news for customers.

The change published on Wednesday is a technical update; the initial revenue projections published in December 2024 were based on projected financial performance but after financial results were published in the summer and Ofwat was able to apply these figures.

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Is Thames Water a step closer to nationalisation?

Thames Water and industry body Water UK have been contacted for comment.

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Why is Warner Bros for sale, what are the controversial bids – and how is Trump involved?

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Why is Warner Bros for sale, what are the controversial bids – and how is Trump involved?

A huge takeover that would rock the entertainment industry looks imminent, with Netflix and Paramount fighting over Warner Bros Discovery (WBD).

Streaming giant Netflix announced it had agreed a $72bn (£54bn) deal for WBD’s film and TV studios on 5 December, only for Paramount to sweep in with a $108.4bn (£81bn) bid several days later.

The takeover saga isn’t far removed from a Hollywood plot; with multi-billionaires negotiating in boardrooms, politicians on all sides expressing their fears for the public and the US president looming large, expected to play a significant role.

“Whichever way this deal goes, it will certainly be one of the biggest media deals in history. It will shake up the established TV and film norms and will have global implications,” Sky News’ US correspondent Martha Kelner said on the Trump 100 podcast.

So what do we know about the bids, why are they controversial – and how is Donald Trump involved?

Why is Warner Bros up for sale?

WBD’s board first announced it was open to selling or partly selling the company in October after a summer of hushed speculation.

Back in June, WBD announced its plan to split into two companies: one for its TV, film studios, and HBO Max streaming services, and one for the Discovery element of the business, primarily comprising legacy TV channels that air cartoons, news, and sports.

It came amid the cable industry’s continued struggles at the hands of streaming services, and CEO David Zaslav suggested splitting into two companies would give WBD’s brands the “sharper focus and strategic flexibility they need to compete most effectively in today’s evolving media landscape”.

The company’s long-term strategic initiatives have also been stifled by its estimated $35bn of debt. This wasn’t helped by the WarnerMedia and Discovery merger in 2022, which led to it becoming Warner Bros Discovery.

WBD's announced it was open to selling or partly selling the company in October. Pic: iStock
Image:
WBD’s announced it was open to selling or partly selling the company in October. Pic: iStock

What we know about the bids

The $72bn bid from Netflix is for the first division of the business, which would give it the rights to worldwide hits like the Harry Potter and Game of Thrones franchises – and Warner Bros’ extensive back catalogue of movies.

If the deal were to happen, it would not be finalised until the split is complete, and Discovery Global, including channels like CNN, will not form part of the merger.

Paramount’s $108.4bn offer is what’s known as a hostile bid. This means it went directly to shareholders with a cash offer for the entirety of the company, asking them to reject the deal with Netflix.

Ted Sarandos, CEO of Netflix. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Ted Sarandos, CEO of Netflix. Pic: Reuters

This deal would involve rival US news channels CBS and CNN being brought under the same parent company.

Netflix’s cash and stock deal is valued at $27.75 (£20.80) per Warner share, giving it a total enterprise value of $82.7bn (£62bn), including debt.

But Paramount says its deal will pay $30 (£22.50) cash per share, representing $18bn (£13.5bn) more in cash than its rivals are offering.

Paramount claims to have tried several times to bid for WBD through its board, but said it launched the hostile bid after hearing of Netflix’s offer because the board had “never engaged meaningfully”.

David Zaslav, CEO and president of Warner Bros Discovery. Pic: Reuters
Image:
David Zaslav, CEO and president of Warner Bros Discovery. Pic: Reuters

Why are politicians and experts concerned?

The US government will have a big say on who ultimately buys WBD, as Paramount and Netflix will likely face the Department of Justice’s (DOJ) Antitrust Division, a federal agency which scrutinises business deals to ensure fair competition.

Republicans and Democrats have voiced concerns over the potential monopolisation of streaming and the impact it would have on cinemas if Netflix – already the world’s biggest streaming service by market share – were to take over WBD.

Democratic senator Elizabeth Warren said the deal “would create one massive media giant with control of close to half of the streaming market – threatening to force Americans into higher subscription prices and fewer choices over what and how they watch, while putting American workers at risk”.

Similarly, Representative Pramila Jayapal, who co-chairs the House Monopoly Busters Caucus, called the deal a “nightmare,” adding: “It would mean more price hikes, ads, and cookie-cutter content, less creative control for artists, and lower pay for workers.”

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Netflix could yet get its way in Trump’s America

Netflix’s business model of prioritising streaming over cinemas has caused consternation in Hollywood.

The screen actors union SAG-AFTRA said the merger “raises many serious questions” for actors, while the Directors Guild of America said it also had “concerns”.

Experts suggest there’s less of a concern with the Paramount deal when it comes to a streaming monopoly, because its Paramount+ service is smaller and has less of an international footprint than Netflix.

How is Trump relevant?

After Netflix announced its bid, the president said of its path to regulatory clearance: “I’ll be involved in that decision.”

And while Mr Trump himself will not be directly involved, he appointed those in the DOJ Antitrust Division, and they have the authority to block or challenge takeovers.

However, his potential influence isn’t sitting well with some experts due to his ties with key players on the Paramount side.

Larry Ellison (centre left) in the White House with Trump. Pic: Reuters
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Larry Ellison (centre left) in the White House with Trump. Pic: Reuters

Paramount is run by David Ellison, the son of the Oracle tech billionaire (and world’s second-richest man) Larry Ellison, who is a close ally of Mr Trump.

Additionally, Affinity Partners, an investment firm run by Mr Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, would be investing in the deal.

Also participating would be funds controlled by the governments of three unnamed Persian Gulf countries, widely reported as Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi and Qatar – countries the Trump family company has struck deals with this year.

David Ellison, CEO of Paramount Skydance.  Pic: Reuters
Image:
David Ellison, CEO of Paramount Skydance. Pic: Reuters

Critics of the Trump’s administration has accused it of being transactional, with the president known to hold grudges over those who are critical of him, however, Mr Trump told reporters on 8 December that he has not spoken with Mr Kushner about WBD, adding that neither Netflix nor Paramount “are friends of mine”.

John Mayo, an antitrust expert at Georgetown University, suggested the scrutiny by the Antitrust Division would be serious whichever offer is approved by shareholders, and that he thinks experts there will keep partisanship out of their decisions despite the politically charged atmosphere.

What happens next?

WBD must now advise shareholders whether Paramount’s offer constitutes a superior offer by 22 December.

If the company decides that Paramount’s offer is superior, Netflix would have the opportunity to match or beat it.

WBD would have to pay Netflix a termination fee of $2.8bn (£2.10bn) if it decides to scrap the deal.

Shareholders have until 8 January 2026 to vote on Paramount’s offer.

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Reeves misses opportunity to end loop of permanent budget speculation

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Reeves misses opportunity to end loop of permanent budget speculation

Whatever your political bent or economic creed, it is hard to argue that the build up to last month’s budget was anything but hapless.

The prolonged wait for the fiscal event was punctuated by trails and leaks and capped by an unusual scene-setting speech by the chancellor herself, in which she gave a hefty nudge-and-a-wink towards income tax rises, before climbing down days later.

When the moment to deliver finally came, Rachel Reeves was upstaged by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) effectively publishing her budget online, 90 minutes before she stood up in Parliament.

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Appearing before the Treasury select committee of MPs – a routine post-budget date for any chancellor – she had her best opportunity yet to explain the apparent chaos. She only partially took it.

Ms Reeves insisted that the leaks were unauthorised and unhelpful, but failed to say explicitly why she dropped income tax rises having intentionally flagged they were coming to plug a hole in the public finances.

We did learn the focus of the leak inquiry is a story published by the Financial Times on 13 November, nine days after her Downing Street speech, which revealed that the income tax changes had been ditched.

More on Budget 2025

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Were we all misled over the budget?

It moved markets, pushing the price of UK bonds down, and the price the government pays to service that debt up.

The story, she said, was inaccurate, partial and “very damaging” because it gave the impression that she was abandoning the “core elements” of her strategy, crucially increasing the headroom against her fiscal rules.

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Tories say Reeves misled the public

What many people took from it was that a key decision had been reversed before it had been taken, adding to pervading uncertainty and a general sense of chaos.

It looked even more curious post-budget when the OBR revealed it had told her before the nudge-and-a-wink speech that the total funding gap was not as wide as first feared.

The chancellor did confirm she had considered breaking a manifesto pledge on income tax and that the final decision was made in tandem with the prime minister “as a team”. “In the end it was not necessary,” she said.

She was more bullish when questions moved from the style to the substance of the budget, defending her blend of backdated tax rises and upfront spending pledges from the charge they do nothing to promote growth.

She was also tempted into making two firm commitments – not to levy capital gains taxes on primary residences or dilute the triple-lock on pensions – underlining the sense that, for this government, budget speculation is now a permanent loop.

Committee chair Dame Meg Hillier concluded by describing her appearance as the “full stop” on the budget process. The chancellor will hope so.

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