What are the options for peace in Ukraine?

Published

6 months ago

March 18, 2025

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Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s have both said any ceasefire between their two countries must lead to a lasting peace.

Ukraine has not long marked three years of war, in which hundreds of thousands have died or been injured on both sides, according to the respective authorities.

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The Kremlin’s annexation of more Ukrainian territory during its invasion – which it still calls a “special military operation” -and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s determination to uphold its sovereignty has left many analysts doubtful the war will ever end.

But since his return to the White House, Donald Trump has demanded the two sides “make a deal”, withdrawing vital US support to Kyiv until it agreed to come to the negotiating table.

Mr Zelenskyy has now agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, with Mr Trump due to iron out Russia’s demands in a phone call with Mr Putin on Tuesday.

But beyond that – what would a Ukraine without fighting look like? Here we go through some of the options.

Ongoing ceasefire

Beyond the initial 30-day agreement, providing neither side violates it, the ceasefire could continue indefinitely.

“A ceasefire can go on to be an enduring thing,” Dr David Blagden, associate professor in international security and strategy at the University of Exeter, tells Sky News.

He gives the example of North and South Korea, whereby a demilitarised zone (DMZ) has effectively served as a border between the two countries since the Korean War ended in 1953.

“Even if it doesn’t ever lead to a more satisfactory settlement, it might still be better for both parties than endless conflict,” he says.

But any kind of DMZ would require both Ukraine and Russia to pull their troops away from the frontline, which is unlikely, adds Dr Huseyn Aliyev, senior lecturer in East European studies at the University of Glasgow.

Parts of Ukraine become ‘New Russia’

The alternative would be for both Ukraine and Russia to offer concessions to formally end the war.

Top of Vladimir Putin’s “list of demands” for “long-term peace”, and his justification for invading Ukraine in the first place, is Crimea – and four other regions – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia – becoming part of a ‘New Russia’, as they were before the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.

While Luhansk is almost completely under Russian control, Ukraine still holds significant parts of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, making them more difficult for Kyiv to let go of.

“We know neither Crimea nor the Donbas regions [Donetsk and Luhansk] would be returned [to Ukraine] as part of a truce,” Dr Aliyev says. “So it would involve ceding control over those parts.

“But Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are more complicated – especially Kherson – as Kherson city was so painfully liberated by Ukraine in 2022.”

Although many doubt Russia would stop there in terms of territory, Dr Blagden adds: “There would be Russian rationale for being content with what they already have. It’s been hugely costly for them – and destroyed a lot of their expensively modernised military. It’s also filtered through into Russian civilian life, to an extent, via the sanctions and casualties, despite the Kremlin’s efforts to insulate Russia’s upper and middle classes from the worst of the war.

“Likewise, for Ukraine – galling and unfair though it may be – there’s likely now more recognition that retaking lost ground will be desperately hard, especially without assured supplies of US weaponry and intelligence. So, they could have reason to live with some sort of ceasefire too.”

Power plants and infrastructure split

Mr Trump has said his team has already proposed “dividing up certain assets” between the two countries – namely “land and power plants” – and will discuss the details with Mr Putin in a phone call on Tuesday.

He did not give any specifics, but these are likely to include the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, which has been occupied by Russia since March 2022, and is one of the largest in the world.

Other key infrastructure that could come under Moscow’s control includes the Nova Kakhovka dam, blown up in 2023 and not yet rebuilt, and other river crossings.

Zelenskyy replaced

A truce would also likely include a new leader for Ukraine. Mr Zelenskyy has already told Sky News he is open to stepping down if it means Ukraine can join NATO.

One of Mr Putin’s demands is that Ukraine is never allowed NATO membership – but replacing Mr Zelenskyy could still serve to appease him – and Donald Trump, who has called him a “dictator” and accused him of “gambling with World War Three”.

“It would be easier for Zelenskyy to call an election and have somebody replace him,” Dr Aliyev says. “But there’s a problem of who that would be – as there’s not much left of the Ukrainian opposition.”

Contenders include Ukrainian ambassador to the UK Valerii Zaluzhnyi – or one of the generals currently in charge of the military, he adds.

But the Kremlin would prefer a pro-Russian regime in Kyiv, according to Dr Blagden.

“Short of being able to conquer the whole country, a government that’s more favourable towards Russian interests would obviously be their preference,” he says.

“Similar to the one they’ve worked hard to install in Georgia, they might hope for the return of Ukraine’s more pro-Russian politicians and sentiment from before 2014. But of course, Ukrainian opinion is now galvanised against anyone seen as a puppet of Moscow.”

‘Minor concessions’ for Ukraine

Although Russia’s demands would mean a series of heavy blows for Ukraine, there could be some “minor concessions”, security and defence analyst Professor Michael Clarke says.

US national security adviser Mike Waltz has said Ukraine would get “security guarantees” if it agrees to cede territory – but has not specified what they would be.

Other possible concessions include the return of tens of thousands of Ukrainian children who were abducted and forcibly resettled in Russia – and prisoners of war on both sides.

In principle, if a truce was agreed, the International Criminal Court could also begin an investigation into whether war crimes were committed on either side.

“In these situations where there’s a fundamental disagreement and you can’t see the way forward, you often concentrate on some of the minor details,” Professor Clarke says.

Starmer’s ‘coalition of the willing’

Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have spearheaded the idea of a so-called “coalition of the willing” to uphold a potential truce or ceasefire.

Sir Keir’s team says “more than 30” countries are interested in contributing to the peacekeeping force – but the US has been notably absent from leaders’ meetings so far. Vladimir Putin has also said he would not accept NATO forces in Ukraine, posing a major obstacle to the plans.

The prime minister has not specified how the coalition would work but said that military chiefs would meet to discuss the “operational phase” on Thursday.

Lower risk option

According to the experts, the coalition could take two potential forms.

Neither would involve guarding the entire frontline. That’s because, at 640 miles long, it would require more than 100,000 troops at a time – and 300,000 with rotations.

By contrast, the first option would be stationing troops away from the line of control, largely in western Ukraine – or at key infrastructural sites or transport hubs to ensure they continue running smoothly.

This would be a similar operation to the British one in Estonia – where 900 troops are stationed to deter Russian aggression. The Ukrainian one would involve up to 30,000 personnel and be focused primarily on monitoring, logistics, and training, the experts say.

“The challenge for any peacekeeping force is balancing effectiveness and escalatory risk,” Dr Blagden adds.

“Calling it a ‘peacekeeping’ force might create the impression of neutrality. But of course, it wouldn’t be neutral – they’re there to defend one of two sides. It would be better understood as a garrison whose job would be to ensure that Russia can’t attack Ukraine without attacking NATO troops, and therefore risking a wider war with nuclear-armed powers,” he says.

“A larger combat force closer to the frontline would create more deterrence but with more escalatory risk – whereas a smaller force further from the frontline – perhaps merely fulfilling training and support tasks – would carry much less escalatory risk but therefore also be much less of a deterrent”.

Ordinarily, that deterrent would be hugely bolstered by the US, which under NATO’s Article 5 could send in powerful air forces to attack ones on the ground – as it has in places like Iraq.

But Donald Trump’s tense relations with Ukraine and suggestions the US could leave NATO have thrown its Article 5 obligations into major doubt.

‘Rapid reaction force’ closer to frontline

Alternatively, coalition troops could be sent closer to the frontline, Professor Clarke says.

They would be split into brigades manning four or five strategic bases like the cities of Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Kharkiv or Kyiv.

Describing them as a “rapid reaction force at high readiness”, Professor Clarke adds: “To be able to go to any trouble spot and snuff it out they’d need a lot of transport – particularly air cover to get there quickly enough.”

They too would likely need to be backed up by a US security guarantee, he says, but under the Trump administration, this is by no means certain.

Neutral peacekeeping force

Alternatively, a peacekeeping force could be led by the United Nations, which would recruit personnel from neutral countries in exchange for incentives, as it does elsewhere.

With the second-largest military in NATO, Turkey could be involved, Dr Aliyev says.

But with Vladimir Putin’s rejection of potential NATO forces, he may be more likely to accept ones from the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) nations, Professor Clarke adds.

“Putin has hinted at troops from the Global South as monitors – because he thinks they are on his side,” he says. India in particular could be a viable option, he says.

“India has got big forces and wants to play a bigger strategic role in the world. Russia wouldn’t want to fire on Indian forces because of the political implications for their relationship – so they might be most acceptable to both Russia and the West.”

While a neutral option might be the most practical – it may not be hugely successful, Dr Aliyev cautions.

“Similar missions in Lebanon and sub-Saharan Africa have been relatively low in effectiveness,” he says.”A UN force might be the most feasible for Russia – but a coalition of the willing would last longer.”

World

‘The drones are always there… like a punishment’: A diary of daily life in Gaza

Published

10 hours ago

August 31, 2025

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'The drones are always there... like a punishment': A diary of daily life in Gaza

“We call drones our loyal friends, because they never leave us.”

Tasneem hears Israeli drones overhead, a constant fact of life in Gaza. It gets into your head, into your chest, she says.

“You can’t think, you can’t sleep. You can’t even be.”

“It’s always there, hanging above our heads, like some kind of punishment,” she says. In the background, the slow, constant buzz of a drone is audible.

“The people here in Gaza know that when the drone gets very low, at this level, something will happen. We all know what that something is… I don’t want to mention it.”

Tasneem al Iwini is 24. Like her peers across the world, she splits her time between work, studying for a master’s degree and spending time with her family of six.

Except she also has to deal with warplanes screaming overhead, rocketing food prices and the possibility that any day could be the last for her or her loved ones as Israel continues its war in Gaza.

To give a sense of what day-to-day life is like for her in Deir al Balah, Tasneem recorded a series of audio diary entries over the course of a week as part of her work with ActionAid and shared them exclusively with Sky News.

Day One: At least I’m still breathing

It’s incredibly hot today, Tasneem says. The kind of heat that makes your skin heavy and your thoughts slower.

I had so many things to do on my plate today, but honestly, I couldn’t move.

There’s no electricity and no fans, no air conditioner. So here I am just laying on my mattress and sweating.

My only relief is my plastic tray. I’m just using it as my personal fan…

I keep waving it back and forth, not to cool the room, but just to trick my brain into thinking I have control over this heat.

Sometimes I close my eyes and imagine I’m somewhere cold, as I actually prefer winter.

But then I hear the buzz of flies and mosquitoes in my ear and I remember this is Gaza, summer 2025. It’s exhausting, but at least I’m still breathing.

Day Two: Rocketing price of food

It’s Friday, which is a special day for us as it is the day we usually wait to cook something special. Today we are cooking maqluba (a traditional dish consisting of meat, rice and fried vegetables).

We haven’t tasted any kind of real protein like meat, chicken or fish for more than three months. I really miss chicken and fish badly.

But even this fake maqluba costs a lot, so many families can’t afford it… vegetables are very expensive.

Before the war we used to cook maqluba with at least four kilos of eggplants, because we are crazy about eggplants and its taste in maqluba . Now, if we manage to cook it with only two eggplants, that’s considered a luxury.

The price of one kilo of eggplant is more than 45 shekels. That’s approximately $12.50. Talking about tomatoes, the price is more than 90 shekels, which is approximately $27 per kilo.

Day Three: The drone reality

Here we go again. Our dear friend, the drone, Tasneem says as a buzzing noise hums in the background.

It just never leaves. It’s always there hanging above our heads like some kind of punishment.

The sound, I don’t even know how to describe it.

It’s not just noise. It gets into your head, into your chest. You can’t think, you can’t sleep, you can’t even be.

It drains something inside you slowly, and yet we live with it every day.

Later on:

Hi again. I’m just recording the gunfire. We are not sure what is happening outside, actually.

I can say that this is almost an every afternoon routine.

Day Four: A message to the world

Today I came across a small community kitchen, one of the very few still functioning.

Because of the current situation, especially the scarcity of food and the near-total blockade on the humanitarian aid, most of these kitchens have shut down…

Tasneem says that just after she left the office, the community kitchen was hit in an Israeli strike.

Three youths were killed, and many children were injured.

Those children were playing around and nearby the kitchen…

This time I went to send a message to the world, with a heavy heart burdened by the challenges and the impossible conditions we live under.

I still hold on to hope that this war will end… Because honestly, here in Gaza, we have lost trust in the world, governments and every actor.

Day Five: How many children must die?

Good evening, dear friends. I don’t really know what to say. I feel like my heart is just a drain.

Yesterday I promised to take you through the rest of my day, but honestly, I came home feeling exhausted…

I bought just two cucumbers, and that cost me $8. Yes, $8 for two cucumbers.

This is what it means to say that even the basics have become impossible to get in Gaza.

I came home, washed the cucumbers and cut them into small pieces so all of us could taste what it feels like to eat cucumber.

Tomatoes are even worse. They are completely unaffordable in the market.

And every time I think about the situation we are living through here in Gaza, I feel like I’m out of patience. I just can’t take more.

How many of us have to die before the world decides to intervene? And how many children must die, not from bombing or shelling, but from starvation and malnutrition?

Today, the telecommunications company in Gaza announced that in the next 24 hours it is expected that internet services will shut down again because of the fuel shortage and because of the occupation, who continue to block fuel from entering the Strip.

And this does not mean losing the internet only. It means patients in the ICUs will lose connection to life. It means ambulances, fridges for medications and blood, even water pumps for both drinking and domestic use will stop working.

I was planning today to come home and study for my final exams, but I just sat there for a moment thinking about our reality.

And I couldn’t, I couldn’t do anything. So instead, I decided to record this for you. This is what Gaza looks like right now.

Day Seven: The cemetery is full… and the horror of jets overhead

There are many types of weapons being used… and here in Gaza, we the people have learned to genuinely distinguish between them.

We know each sound by heart.

For example, we know the sound of the F-16 (fighter jet) very well. We can even guess when it has a target.

It has a special tone, like it’s rushing towards something. There is a tension in the air, and we feel it in our bodies.

Whenever I hear one of them, I swear I feel like this is the last moment of my life. I cover my ears with both hands and run to stay nearby my family, because in this moment my heart tells me, if something happens, let it happen to all of us together.

I know that’s not how it works, but that’s how I cope. That’s the only way I feel some false sense of control…

Sometimes it feels like the pilot is showing off, flying lower over the heads of women, children and civilians, as if to say: “Look at me. I can do this.”

Every time the jets go low, I start praying, I do everything I can as if it is the end of my life.

In another voicenote from the same day, Tasneem talked about her walk to work.

I pass by the cemetery every day. Today, I saw a situation that truly broke my heart.

There was a group of angry people gathered around the person who is responsible for digging graves.

They were shouting, saying the cemetery is completely full, and now they have started opening all the graves without knowing who is buried there and without getting any consent from the families of the dead.

They are placing new dead bodies on the top of the old ones, whether they are men, women or children.

Most people were furious, and honestly, I was so disappointed and heartbroken when I saw this.

This is one of those things I wish I never had to witness, but I wanted to share it with you, because it says so much about how bad things have become.

‘Critical moment’ for Gaza

Tasneem works with the Palestinian NGOs Network in Gaza and has partnered with ActionAid in the UK.

A spokesperson for ActionAid UK said: “Humanitarian workers like Tasneem are risking their lives every day to support and advocate for their fellow Palestinians in Gaza, despite experiencing the same intolerable conditions that they are.

“Just imagine having to go to work when you haven’t had a proper meal in days, knowing that at any moment you could be killed by bombing: that is their daily reality. Yet still, people like Tasneem are bravely speaking out and telling their stories so that the world knows the truth about the horrors they are facing…

“This is a critical moment. It’s time for the world to take meaningful action and use every diplomatic lever available to bring about a permanent ceasefire and end the siege on Gaza immediately so that food and other aid can enter unhindered, rapidly and at scale.”

World

‘The drones are always there… like some sort of punishment’: Woman’s diary of daily life in Gaza

Published

19 hours ago

August 31, 2025

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