What are the options for peace in Ukraine?

Published

4 months ago

March 18, 2025

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Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s have both said any ceasefire between their two countries must lead to a lasting peace.

Ukraine has not long marked three years of war, in which hundreds of thousands have died or been injured on both sides, according to the respective authorities.

Follow our live blog for the latest updates about the Ukraine war

The Kremlin’s annexation of more Ukrainian territory during its invasion – which it still calls a “special military operation” -and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s determination to uphold its sovereignty has left many analysts doubtful the war will ever end.

But since his return to the White House, Donald Trump has demanded the two sides “make a deal”, withdrawing vital US support to Kyiv until it agreed to come to the negotiating table.

Mr Zelenskyy has now agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, with Mr Trump due to iron out Russia’s demands in a phone call with Mr Putin on Tuesday.

But beyond that – what would a Ukraine without fighting look like? Here we go through some of the options.

Ongoing ceasefire

Beyond the initial 30-day agreement, providing neither side violates it, the ceasefire could continue indefinitely.

“A ceasefire can go on to be an enduring thing,” Dr David Blagden, associate professor in international security and strategy at the University of Exeter, tells Sky News.

He gives the example of North and South Korea, whereby a demilitarised zone (DMZ) has effectively served as a border between the two countries since the Korean War ended in 1953.

“Even if it doesn’t ever lead to a more satisfactory settlement, it might still be better for both parties than endless conflict,” he says.

But any kind of DMZ would require both Ukraine and Russia to pull their troops away from the frontline, which is unlikely, adds Dr Huseyn Aliyev, senior lecturer in East European studies at the University of Glasgow.

Parts of Ukraine become ‘New Russia’

The alternative would be for both Ukraine and Russia to offer concessions to formally end the war.

Top of Vladimir Putin’s “list of demands” for “long-term peace”, and his justification for invading Ukraine in the first place, is Crimea – and four other regions – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia – becoming part of a ‘New Russia’, as they were before the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.

While Luhansk is almost completely under Russian control, Ukraine still holds significant parts of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, making them more difficult for Kyiv to let go of.

“We know neither Crimea nor the Donbas regions [Donetsk and Luhansk] would be returned [to Ukraine] as part of a truce,” Dr Aliyev says. “So it would involve ceding control over those parts.

“But Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are more complicated – especially Kherson – as Kherson city was so painfully liberated by Ukraine in 2022.”

Although many doubt Russia would stop there in terms of territory, Dr Blagden adds: “There would be Russian rationale for being content with what they already have. It’s been hugely costly for them – and destroyed a lot of their expensively modernised military. It’s also filtered through into Russian civilian life, to an extent, via the sanctions and casualties, despite the Kremlin’s efforts to insulate Russia’s upper and middle classes from the worst of the war.

“Likewise, for Ukraine – galling and unfair though it may be – there’s likely now more recognition that retaking lost ground will be desperately hard, especially without assured supplies of US weaponry and intelligence. So, they could have reason to live with some sort of ceasefire too.”

Power plants and infrastructure split

Mr Trump has said his team has already proposed “dividing up certain assets” between the two countries – namely “land and power plants” – and will discuss the details with Mr Putin in a phone call on Tuesday.

He did not give any specifics, but these are likely to include the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, which has been occupied by Russia since March 2022, and is one of the largest in the world.

Other key infrastructure that could come under Moscow’s control includes the Nova Kakhovka dam, blown up in 2023 and not yet rebuilt, and other river crossings.

Zelenskyy replaced

A truce would also likely include a new leader for Ukraine. Mr Zelenskyy has already told Sky News he is open to stepping down if it means Ukraine can join NATO.

One of Mr Putin’s demands is that Ukraine is never allowed NATO membership – but replacing Mr Zelenskyy could still serve to appease him – and Donald Trump, who has called him a “dictator” and accused him of “gambling with World War Three”.

“It would be easier for Zelenskyy to call an election and have somebody replace him,” Dr Aliyev says. “But there’s a problem of who that would be – as there’s not much left of the Ukrainian opposition.”

Contenders include Ukrainian ambassador to the UK Valerii Zaluzhnyi – or one of the generals currently in charge of the military, he adds.

But the Kremlin would prefer a pro-Russian regime in Kyiv, according to Dr Blagden.

“Short of being able to conquer the whole country, a government that’s more favourable towards Russian interests would obviously be their preference,” he says.

“Similar to the one they’ve worked hard to install in Georgia, they might hope for the return of Ukraine’s more pro-Russian politicians and sentiment from before 2014. But of course, Ukrainian opinion is now galvanised against anyone seen as a puppet of Moscow.”

‘Minor concessions’ for Ukraine

Although Russia’s demands would mean a series of heavy blows for Ukraine, there could be some “minor concessions”, security and defence analyst Professor Michael Clarke says.

US national security adviser Mike Waltz has said Ukraine would get “security guarantees” if it agrees to cede territory – but has not specified what they would be.

Other possible concessions include the return of tens of thousands of Ukrainian children who were abducted and forcibly resettled in Russia – and prisoners of war on both sides.

In principle, if a truce was agreed, the International Criminal Court could also begin an investigation into whether war crimes were committed on either side.

“In these situations where there’s a fundamental disagreement and you can’t see the way forward, you often concentrate on some of the minor details,” Professor Clarke says.

Starmer’s ‘coalition of the willing’

Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have spearheaded the idea of a so-called “coalition of the willing” to uphold a potential truce or ceasefire.

Sir Keir’s team says “more than 30” countries are interested in contributing to the peacekeeping force – but the US has been notably absent from leaders’ meetings so far. Vladimir Putin has also said he would not accept NATO forces in Ukraine, posing a major obstacle to the plans.

The prime minister has not specified how the coalition would work but said that military chiefs would meet to discuss the “operational phase” on Thursday.

Lower risk option

According to the experts, the coalition could take two potential forms.

Neither would involve guarding the entire frontline. That’s because, at 640 miles long, it would require more than 100,000 troops at a time – and 300,000 with rotations.

By contrast, the first option would be stationing troops away from the line of control, largely in western Ukraine – or at key infrastructural sites or transport hubs to ensure they continue running smoothly.

This would be a similar operation to the British one in Estonia – where 900 troops are stationed to deter Russian aggression. The Ukrainian one would involve up to 30,000 personnel and be focused primarily on monitoring, logistics, and training, the experts say.

“The challenge for any peacekeeping force is balancing effectiveness and escalatory risk,” Dr Blagden adds.

“Calling it a ‘peacekeeping’ force might create the impression of neutrality. But of course, it wouldn’t be neutral – they’re there to defend one of two sides. It would be better understood as a garrison whose job would be to ensure that Russia can’t attack Ukraine without attacking NATO troops, and therefore risking a wider war with nuclear-armed powers,” he says.

“A larger combat force closer to the frontline would create more deterrence but with more escalatory risk – whereas a smaller force further from the frontline – perhaps merely fulfilling training and support tasks – would carry much less escalatory risk but therefore also be much less of a deterrent”.

Ordinarily, that deterrent would be hugely bolstered by the US, which under NATO’s Article 5 could send in powerful air forces to attack ones on the ground – as it has in places like Iraq.

But Donald Trump’s tense relations with Ukraine and suggestions the US could leave NATO have thrown its Article 5 obligations into major doubt.

‘Rapid reaction force’ closer to frontline

Alternatively, coalition troops could be sent closer to the frontline, Professor Clarke says.

They would be split into brigades manning four or five strategic bases like the cities of Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Kharkiv or Kyiv.

Describing them as a “rapid reaction force at high readiness”, Professor Clarke adds: “To be able to go to any trouble spot and snuff it out they’d need a lot of transport – particularly air cover to get there quickly enough.”

They too would likely need to be backed up by a US security guarantee, he says, but under the Trump administration, this is by no means certain.

Neutral peacekeeping force

Alternatively, a peacekeeping force could be led by the United Nations, which would recruit personnel from neutral countries in exchange for incentives, as it does elsewhere.

With the second-largest military in NATO, Turkey could be involved, Dr Aliyev says.

But with Vladimir Putin’s rejection of potential NATO forces, he may be more likely to accept ones from the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) nations, Professor Clarke adds.

“Putin has hinted at troops from the Global South as monitors – because he thinks they are on his side,” he says. India in particular could be a viable option, he says.

“India has got big forces and wants to play a bigger strategic role in the world. Russia wouldn’t want to fire on Indian forces because of the political implications for their relationship – so they might be most acceptable to both Russia and the West.”

While a neutral option might be the most practical – it may not be hugely successful, Dr Aliyev cautions.

“Similar missions in Lebanon and sub-Saharan Africa have been relatively low in effectiveness,” he says.”A UN force might be the most feasible for Russia – but a coalition of the willing would last longer.”

World

Inside Iran’s notorious Evin Prison – as Tehran says damage shows Israel targeted civilians

Published

12 hours ago

July 4, 2025

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Inside Iran's notorious Evin Prison - as Tehran says damage shows Israel targeted civilians

It is one of the most notorious and secret places in Iran.

Somewhere foreign journalists are never allowed to visit or film. The prison where dissidents and critics of Iran’s government disappear – some never to be seen again.

But we went there today, invited by Iranian authorities eager to show the damage done there by Israel.

Evin Prison was hit by Israeli airstrikes the day before a ceasefire ended a 12-day war with Iran. The damage is much greater than thought at the time.

We walked through what’s left of its gates, now a mass of rubble and twisted metal, among just a handful of foreign news media allowed in.

A few hundred yards in, we were shown a building Iranians say was the prison’s hospital.

Behind iron bars, every one of the building’s windows had been blown in. Medical equipment and hospital beds had been ripped apart and shredded.

It felt eerie being somewhere normally shut off to the outside world.

On the hill above us, untouched by the airstrikes, the buildings where inmates are incarcerated in reportedly horrific conditions, ominous watch towers silhouetted against the sky.

Evin felt rundown and neglected. There was something ineffably sad and oppressive about the atmosphere as we wandered through the compound.

The Iranians had their reasons to bring us here. The authorities say at least 71 people were killed in the air strikes, some of them inmates, but also visiting family members.

Iran says this is evidence that Israel was not just targeting military or nuclear sites but civilian locations too.

But the press visit highlighted the prison’s notoriety too.

Iran’s critics and human rights groups say Evin is synonymous with the brutal oppression of political prisoners and opponents, and its practice of hostage diplomacy too.

British dual nationals, including Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe were held here for years before being released in 2022 in exchange for concessions from the UK.

Interviewed about the Israeli airstrikes at the time, Ms Zaghari-Ratcliffe showed only characteristic empathy with her former fellow inmates. Trapped in their cells, she said they must have been terrified.

The Israelis have not fully explained why they put Evin on their target list, but on the same day, the Israeli military said it was “attacking regime targets and government repression bodies in the heart of Tehran”.

The locus of their strikes were the prison’s two entrances. If they were trying to enable a jailbreak, they failed. No one is reported to have escaped, several inmates are thought to have died.

The breaches the Israeli missiles made in the jail’s perimeter are being closed again quickly. We filmed as a team of masons worked to shut off the outside world again, brick by brick.

World

Gaza aid group reacts to claims American contractors fired at starving Palestinians

Published

1 day ago

July 4, 2025

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Gaza aid group reacts to claims American contractors fired at starving Palestinians

Israeli-backed American contractors guarding aid centres in Gaza are using live ammunition and stun grenades as starving Palestinians scramble for food, an investigation has claimed.

The Associated Press has reported the accounts by two contractors from the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), although the organisation has strongly denied the allegations, describing them as “categorically false”.

GHF was established in February to deliver desperately needed aid to people in the besieged enclave, but its work has been heavily criticised by international aid groups.

It has also been subject to intense scrutiny about its operations, which Sky News previously reported are associated with a significant increase in deaths.

AP’s claims, which have not been independently verified by Sky News, came from GHF contractors who spoke on condition of anonymity as they were revealing their employer’s internal operations.

They said they were motivated to speak out as they were disturbed by what they considered dangerous practices by security staff who were often heavily armed.

AP reported the contractors had claimed “their colleagues regularly lobbed stun grenades and pepper spray in the direction of the Palestinians” and “bullets were fired in all directions – in the air, into the ground and at times toward the Palestinians, recalling at least one instance where he thought someone had been hit”.

Contractor: ‘Innocent people being hurt’

“There are innocent people being hurt. Badly. Needlessly,” the contractor told AP.

Videos reportedly provided by one contractor show aid sites, located in Israeli military-controlled zones, with hundreds of Palestinians crammed between metal gates, scrambling to reach aid.

In the background, gunfire can be heard, and stun grenades are allegedly fired into crowds.

The footage does not show who was shooting or what was being shot at, but another video shows contractors in a compound, when bursts of gunfire can be heard. One man is then heard shouting in celebration: “Whoo! Whoo!”.

“I think you hit one,” another says, followed by the comment: “Hell, yeah, boy!”

The contractor who took the video told AP that colleagues were shooting in the direction of Palestinians.

According to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry and witnesses, several hundred people have been killed and hundreds more wounded since the GHF sites started operating more than a month ago, amid claims by Palestinians of Israeli troops opening fire almost every day at crowds seeking to reach the aid.

In response, Israel’s military says it fires only warning shots and is investigating reports of civilian harm. It denies deliberately shooting at any innocent civilians and says it’s examining how to reduce “friction with the population” in the areas surrounding the distribution centres.

GHF attacks ‘false claims’

GHF has vehemently denied the accusations, adding that it has investigated AP’s allegations.

In a statement on X, GHF wrote: “Based on time-stamped video footage and sworn witness statements, we have concluded that the claims in the AP’s story are categorically false. At no point were civilians under fire at a GHF distribution site.

“The gunfire heard in the video was confirmed to have originated from the IDF, who was outside the immediate vicinity of the GHF distribution site.

“It was not directed at individuals, and no one was shot or injured. What is most troubling is that the AP refused to share the full video with us prior to publication, despite the seriousness of the allegations.”

Safe Reach Solutions, the logistics company subcontracted by GHF, told the AP there have been no serious injuries at any of their sites to date.

But the organisation admitted that, in isolated incidents, security professionals fired live rounds into the ground and away from civilians to get their attention.

A Safe Reach Solutions spokesperson told AP this happened at the start of their operations at “the height of desperation where crowd control measures were necessary for the safety and security of civilians”.

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Liverpool football star Diogo Jota killed in car crash

Published

1 day ago

July 4, 2025

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Liverpool football star Diogo Jota killed in car crash

Liverpool star Diogo Jota has died in a car crash.

The 28-year-old Portuguese forward died in the accident in the early hours of Thursday morning near Zamora, in northwestern Spain.

His brother, Andre Silva, was also killed in the crash on the Rias Bajas Highway (A-52) near Palacios de Sanabria, heading towards Benavente.

Follow the latest updates following Diogo Jota’s death

Jota and Silva were driving to Santander to catch a ferry back to England ahead of the start of Liverpool’s pre-season training on Monday, CNN Portugal reports.

The news outlet reports that Jota was advised against flying back to England due to recent surgery.

Police said the accident happened at 12.30am when the Lamborghini the pair were travelling in veered off the road.

“A vehicle left the road and everything indicates a tyre burst while overtaking,” the Guardia Civil in Zamora told Sky Sports News in a statement.

“As a result of the accident, the car caught fire and both people were killed. Pending the completion of forensic tests, one of the deceased has been identified as Diogo Jota, a Liverpool FC player, and his brother, Andre Felipe.”

A Spanish government source told the PA news agency that police were investigating the crash as “a possible speeding incident”.

Police added that no other vehicles were involved in the incident.

Pictures of the aftermath of the crash showed debris scattered along the side of the road, including what appeared to be charred parts of the vehicle.

It comes just 10 days after the player married his long-term girlfriend, Rute Cardoso.

He had three children.

The footballer, who played as a striker for Liverpool, began his career in his native Portugal and played at Atletico Madrid in Spain before moving to England.

He joined the Merseyside club from Wolverhampton Wanderers in 2020.

Jota played an important role throughout his five years with the Reds, including scoring six times in Liverpool’s recent Premier League-winning season.

He scored a total of 47 times in 123 matches for the club. He also played 49 times for the Portugal national side, scoring 14 times.

Silva, 25, played for Penafiel, a Portuguese second division club.

Teammates and football legends pay tribute

A statement issued by Liverpool FC said the club was “devastated” by their player’s death.

“The club have been informed the 28-year-old has passed away following a road traffic accident in Spain along with his brother, Andre,” the club said in a statement.

“Liverpool FC will be making no further comment at this time and request the privacy of Diogo and Andre’s family, friends, teammates and club staff is respected as they try to come to terms with an unimaginable loss.

“We will continue to provide them with our full support.”

The Portuguese football federation said it was “utterly devastated by the deaths”.

“Far beyond being an exceptional player, with nearly 50 caps for the national team, Diogo Jota was an extraordinary person, respected by all teammates and opponents, someone with a contagious joy and a reference within his own community.

“We have lost two champions. The passing of Diogo and Andre Silva represents irreparable losses for Portuguese Football, and we will do everything to honour their legacy daily.”

The Portugal and Spain women’s teams held a minute’s silence for Jota and Silva before their match in the Women’s Euros in Switzerland on Thursday evening.

It came after Liverpool’s manager Arne Slot said in a statement: “What can anyone say at a time like this when the shock and the pain is so incredibly raw? I wish I had the words but I know I do not.

“All I have are feelings that I know so many people will share about a person and a player we loved dearly and a family we care so much about.

“My first thoughts are not those of a football manager. They are of a father, a son, a brother and an uncle and they belong to the family of Diogo and Andre Silva who have experienced such an unimaginable loss.”

Jota’s former manager at Liverpool, Jurgen Klopp, offered his thoughts in a post on Instagram.

“This is a moment where I struggle! There must be a bigger purpose, but I can’t see it,” he said.

“I’m heartbroken to hear about the passing of Diogo and his brother Andre. Diogo was not only a fantastic player, but also a great friend, a loving and caring husband and father.

“We will miss you so much. All my prayers, thoughts and power to Rute, the kids, the family, the friends and everyone who loved them.”

Liverpool captain Virgil van Dijk posted on Instagram: “What a human being, what a player, but most importantly what an unbelievable family man.

“You mean so much to all of us and you always will!”

Cristiano Ronaldo, Jota’s captain in the national team, said: “It doesn’t make sense. Just now we were together in the National Team, just now you had gotten married.

“To your family, your wife, and your children, I send my condolences and wish them all the strength in the world.

“I know you will always be with them. Rest in Peace, Diogo and Andre. We will all miss you.”

Jota’s Liverpool teammates Darwin Nunez, Cody Gakpo and Dominik Szoboszlai have also paid tribute.

Szoboszlai wrote: “Words cannot describe how heartbroken and devastated we are… Your smile, your love for the game will never be forgotten.

“We will miss you so much, but you will stay with us forever, on and off the pitch.”

Jota’s former teammates Trent Alexander-Arnold, Sadio Mane, Roberto Firmino and Thiago Alcantara have also shared messages on social media.

Mane posted a picture of himself and Jota with heartbreak emojis.

It came as Liverpool legend Kenny Dalglish wrote on X: “You feel helpless, knowing there’s so little we can do to ease the pain for his wife of just two weeks, his three beautiful children.”

Liverpool legend Steven Gerrard shared an image of Jota on Instagram and wrote: “Condolences to his family and friends during this incredibly sad time.”

Liverpool owners Billy Hogan, John Henry and Tom Werner, who are part of the Fenway Sports Group, said: “This tragic situation and the reality of it is truly shocking, devastating and has left us numb with grief.”

Football icon Lionel Messi has also paid tribute, sharing an image of Jota on Instagram with the message “QEPD” – short for the Spanish phrase ‘que en paz descanse’, which translates to “may he rest in peace'”.

European football clubs such as Barcelona and AC Milan have also shared messages, along with basketball player LeBron James and tennis icon Rafael Nadal.

Meanwhile Liverpool FC have opened a physical and digital book of condolence for supporters and members of the public to sign.

The physical book is at the club’s stadium, in the Anfield Road Stand reception area until Sunday evening.

An avid video gamer, Jota also owned an eSports team and regularly streamed on Twitch.