Supermarket price war could bring consumers some relief but only because the government is pushing up costs

Published

4 months ago

March 18, 2025

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The air is suddenly full of talk about supermarket price wars.

Some £4.4bn was wiped from the stock market valuations of Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Marks & Spencer on Monday following comments from Allan Leighton, the executive chairman of Asda, on Friday in which he promised the grocer was planning its biggest price cuts in 25 years.

Mr Leighton, who returned to Asda last November, said there was a “war chest” available to Asda and indicated he was prepared to “materially” forego profits in the short term to win back market share.

Money blog: ‘My Deliveroo order was wrong and it refused to replace it. Is that allowed?’

He told The Times: “We have a long way to go. We’re three months into what is going to be three years of really getting the basics of the business right and getting the business to outperform the rest of the industry on a like-for-like basis.

“That’s what restores our market share and profitability. It ain’t going to happen overnight.”

Those remarks are rightly being taken seriously by investors – by the market close on Monday Tesco shares had fallen by nearly 15% since Friday morning and those of Marks & Spencer and Sainsbury’s by 10% and 9% apiece.

That is because nobody, arguably, knows Asda better than Mr Leighton.

What’s gone wrong at Asda?

It was he, along with current Marks & Spencer chairman Archie Norman, who rescued Asda from collapse in the early 1990s before selling the business to US giant Walmart in 1999.

Initially, that transaction appeared to go well, with Asda wresting the number two slot in the UK grocery market from Sainsbury’s in 2003.

But Walmart’s insistence on preserving margins gradually saw its share eroded and the number two slot recaptured by Sainsbury’s.

By 2019, it was clear Asda was no longer regarded as a core asset by Walmart. That was the year an attempt was made, blocked by competition regulators, to merge the business with Sainsbury’s.

Worse was to follow.

In October 2020, Walmart offloaded a majority stake in the grocer to the petrol forecourts billionaires Mohsin and Zuber Issa and the private equity firm TDR Capital.

The debt taken on during the takeover blunted Asda’s competitiveness and resulted in it losing market share – mainly to Tesco and Sainsbury’s but also to the German hard discounters Aldi and Lidl.

It went through a series of managers before TDR Capital bought out Zuber Issa in June last year to take a majority 67.5% stake while Mohsin Issa, who retains 22.5% of the business, relinquished the day-to-day running of the business.

A new era

Cue the return of Mr Leighton.

Within weeks, after Asda was the worst-performing supermarket over the Christmas period, he had announced a ‘Big Jan Price Drop’ price-cutting campaign which saw average price reductions of 26% on selected products.

That was dismissed by rivals, most notably Ken Murphy, the chief executive of market leader Tesco, as not representing a genuine price war.

Mr Leighton’s response has been to reintroduce the ‘Rollback’ price-cutting promotions he and Mr Norman introduced in the 1990s in a bid to revive the spirit of the old ‘That’s Asda Price’ campaigns, complete with shoppers patting their back pockets, backed by heavy newspaper and television advertising.

It is being seen by industry experts as a wider price-cutting initiative than the more limited campaign Asda had been running to ‘price match’ Aldi and Lidl.

While the price cuts are the most eye-catching initiatives, so far as consumers will be concerned, Mr Leighton has also spent £43m on extending opening hours for some stores and has also bolstered his management team.

The most important hire was David Lepley, the group retail director at Morrisons, who was appointed in February as chief supply chain officer – a recognition that Asda needed to sharpen up on its product availability.

Can the new boss work his magic again?

The big question many in the industry have is whether Mr Leighton – who has since leaving Asda in 2000 had a spell as chairman of the Co-op – can work his magic again.

The grocery market now is very different from the one in the 1990s when Tesco was only in the foothills of the explosive growth it was later to enjoy, first under Lord MacLaurin and then under Sir Terry Leahy, while Sainsbury’s was going through a fallow period.

Morrisons, which acquired the old Safeway chain in 2004, was also a much smaller business than it is today.

Moreover, in the 1990s, the hard discounters Aldi and Lidl – who entered the UK in 1990 and 1994 respectively – had a miniscule market presence.

Hard discounting in grocery retail was also less developed than today with the old Kwik-Save chain its leading exponent.

In other words, the climate was ripe for a player like Asda to seize share with big, well-targeted price cuts, snappy advertising and, crucially, excellent product availability.

Compare that with today.

A different time

Tesco’s market position is as dominant as it has ever been while Sainsbury’s is a strongly entrenched number two in the market and a revived Morrisons, under Rami Baitiéh, has also returned to growth.

Aldi and Lidl, although the former has recently seen its market share slipping, also remain formidable competitors.

Tesco and Sainsbury’s, who have benefited more than anyone from Asda’s travails, have the most to lose in the event of a turnaround. But they are also better placed than anyone else to withstand one: Tesco’s Clubcard is arguably the world’s most successful supermarket loyalty and rewards scheme and provides the grocer with data and insights that no one else has, enabling it to react rapidly to changes in the market or to shopper habits.

Sainsbury’s is trying to do something similar with Nectar, while both schemes are increasingly able to personalise offers to individual customers, entrenching loyalty.

That may become even more important if, as Simon Roberts, Sainsbury’s chief executive, asserts, the ‘big weekly shop’ is becoming more important as working from home becomes less common.

Tesco and Sainsbury’s sharper than they used to be

As the renowned sector watcher Clive Black, analyst at investment bank Shore Capital puts it: “We need to remember that the listed players are better grocers than Asda with a broader customer set, stronger balance sheets and a will to remain competitive”.

He points out that, apart from the advantages bestowed by their loyalty programmes, Tesco and Sainsbury’s are sharper on price than they used to be, are able to price-match Aldi meaningfully and offer better ranges and more choice than both the German pair and Asda.

That view is shared by the retail team at brokerage Jefferies which has questioned whether Asda’s price cuts can deliver the increase in grocery volumes in the time it requires without a fresh injection of capital from shareholders.

What about consumers?

Will this be good news for consumers? Possibly.

But the grocery sector will be hit hard by the forthcoming increase in the national living wage and, more especially, the rise in employer’s national insurance contributions announced by Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, in her autumn budget.

Those measures will not only push up the costs of supermarkets but also those of their suppliers. Those higher costs will at least be partly passed on to customers.

So too will be the cost of implementing new recycling regulations due in October.

And, all the while, food price inflation is picking up in staples such as eggs, milk and butter. The British Retail Consortium is expecting food price inflation to be north of 4% during the second half of this year.

Accordingly, while Asda’s price war may bring some relief, it feels more likely at present as if it will merely result in lower price rises than British shoppers would otherwise have experienced rather than an outright drop in prices across the board.

Business

Lloyds Banking Group in talks to buy digital wallet provider Curve

Published

18 hours ago

July 12, 2025

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Lloyds Banking Group in talks to buy digital wallet provider Curve

Britain’s biggest high street bank is in talks to buy Curve, the digital wallet provider, amid growing regulatory pressure on Apple to open its payment services to rivals.

Sky News has learnt that Lloyds Banking Group is in advanced discussions to acquire Curve for a price believed to be up to £120m.

City sources said this weekend that if the negotiations were successfully concluded, a deal could be announced by the end of September.

Curve was founded by Shachar Bialick, a former Israeli special forces soldier, in 2016.

Three years later, he told an interviewer: “In 10 years time we are going to be IPOed [listed on the public equity markets]… and hopefully worth around $50bn to $60bn.”

One insider said this weekend that Curve was being advised by KBW, part of the investment bank Stifel, on the discussions with Lloyds.

If a mooted price range of £100m-£120m turns out to be accurate, that would represent a lower valuation than the £133m Curve raised in its Series C funding round, which concluded in 2023.

That round included backing from Britannia, IDC Ventures, Cercano Management – the venture arm of Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen’s estate – and Outward VC.

It was also reported to have raised more than £40m last year, while reducing employee numbers and suspending its US expansion.

In total, the company has raised more than £200m in equity since it was founded.

Curve has been positioned as a rival to Apple Pay in recent years, having initially launched as an app enabling consumers to combine their debit and credit cards in a single wallet.

One source close to the prospective deal said that Lloyds had identified Curve as a strategically attractive bid target as it pushes deeper into payments infrastructure under chief executive Charlie Nunn.

Lloyds is also said to believe that Curve would be a financially rational asset to own because of the fees Apple charges consumers to use its Apple Pay service.

In March, the Financial Conduct Authority and Payment Systems Regulator began working with the Competition and Markets Authority to examine the implications of the growth of digital wallets owned by Apple and Google.

Lloyds owns stakes in a number of fintechs, including the banking-as-a-service platform ThoughtMachine, but has set expanding its tech capabilities as a key strategic objective.

The group employs more than 70,000 people and operates more than 750 branches across Britain.

Curve is chaired by Lord Fink, the former Man Group chief executive who has become a prolific investor in British technology start-ups.

When he was appointed to the role in January, he said: “Working alongside Curve as an investor, I have had a ringside seat to the company’s unassailable and well-earned rise.

“Beginning as a card which combines all your cards into one, to the all-encompassing digital wallet it has evolved into, Curve offers a transformative financial management experience to its users.

“I am proud to have been part of the journey so far, and welcome the chance to support the company through its next, very significant period of growth.”

IDC Ventures, one of the investors in Curve’s Series C funding round, said at the time of its last major fundraising: “Thanks to their unique technology…they have the capability to intercept the transaction and supercharge the customer experience, with its Double Dip Rewards, [and] eliminating nasty hidden fees.

“And they do it seamlessly, without any need for the customer to change the cards they pay with.”

News of the talks between Lloyds and Curve comes days before Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, is expected to outline plans to bolster Britain’s fintech sector by endorsing a concierge service to match start-ups with investors.

Lord Fink declined to comment when contacted by Sky News on Saturday morning, while Curve did not respond to an enquiry sent by email.

Lloyds also declined to comment, while Stifel KBW could not be reached for comment.

Business

UK economy figures not as bad as they look despite GDP fall, analysts say

Published

2 days ago

July 11, 2025

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UK economy figures not as bad as they look despite GDP fall, analysts say

The UK economy unexpectedly shrank in May, even after the worst of Donald Trump’s tariffs were paused, official figures showed.

A standard measure of economic growth, gross domestic product (GDP), contracted 0.1% in May, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Rather than a fall being anticipated, growth of 0.1% was forecast by economists polled by Reuters as big falls in production and construction were seen.

It followed a 0.3% contraction in April, when Mr Trump announced his country-specific tariffs and sparked a global trade war.

A 90-day pause on these import taxes, which has been extended, allowed more normality to resume.

This was borne out by other figures released by the ONS on Friday.

Exports to the United States rose £300m but “remained relatively low” following a “substantial decrease” in April, the data said.

Overall, there was a “large rise in goods imports and a fall in goods exports”.

A ‘disappointing’ but mixed picture

It’s “disappointing” news, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said. She and the government as a whole have repeatedly said growing the economy was their number one priority.

“I am determined to kickstart economic growth and deliver on that promise”, she added.

But the picture was not all bad.

Growth recorded in March was revised upwards, further indicating that companies invested to prepare for tariffs. Rather than GDP of 0.2%, the ONS said on Friday the figure was actually 0.4%.

It showed businesses moved forward activity to be ready for the extra taxes. Businesses were hit with higher employer national insurance contributions in April.

The expansion in March means the economy still grew when the three months are looked at together.

While an interest rate cut in August had already been expected, investors upped their bets of a 0.25 percentage point fall in the Bank of England’s base interest rate.

Such a cut would bring down the rate to 4% and make borrowing cheaper.

Analysts from economic research firm Pantheon Macro said the data was not as bad as it looked.

“The size of the manufacturing drop looks erratic to us and should partly unwind… There are signs that GDP growth can rebound in June”, said Pantheon’s chief UK economist, Rob Wood.

Why did the economy shrink?

The drops in manufacturing came mostly due to slowed car-making, less oil and gas extraction and the pharmaceutical industry.

The fall was not larger because the services industry – the largest part of the economy – expanded, with law firms and computer programmers having a good month.

It made up for a “very weak” month for retailers, the ONS said.

Business

UK economy remains fragile – and there are risks and traps lurking around the corner

Published

2 days ago

July 11, 2025

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UK economy remains fragile - and there are risks and traps lurking around the corner

Monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures are volatile and, on their own, don’t tell us much.

However, the picture emerging a year since the election of the Labour government is not hugely comforting.

This is a government that promised to turbocharge economic growth, the key to improving livelihoods and the public finances. Instead, the economy is mainly flatlining.

Output shrank in May by 0.1%. That followed a 0.3% drop in April.

Ministers were celebrating a few months ago as data showed the economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter.

Hangover from artificial growth

However, the subsequent data has shown us that much of that growth was artificial, with businesses racing to get orders out of the door to beat the possible introduction of tariffs. Property transactions were also brought forward to beat stamp duty changes.

In April, we experienced the hangover as orders and industrial output dropped. Services also struggled as demand for legal and conveyancing services dropped after the stamp duty changes.

Many of those distortions have now been smoothed out, but the manufacturing sector still struggled in May.

Signs of recovery

Manufacturing output fell by 1% in May, but more up-to-date data suggests the sector is recovering.

“We expect both cars and pharma output to improve as the UK-US trade deal comes into force and the volatility unwinds,” economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics said.

Meanwhile, the services sector eked out growth of 0.1%.

A 2.7% month-to-month fall in retail sales suppressed growth in the sector, but that should improve with hot weather likely to boost demand at restaurants and pubs.

Struggles ahead

It is unlikely, however, to massively shift the dial for the economy, the kind of shift the Labour government has promised and needs in order to give it some breathing room against its fiscal rules.

The economy remains fragile, and there are risks and traps lurking around the corner.

Concerns that the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is considering tax hikes could weigh on consumer confidence, at a time when businesses are already scaling back hiring because of national insurance tax hikes.

Inflation is also expected to climb in the second half of the year, further weighing on consumers and businesses.