Solana futures ETF to grow institutional adoption, despite limited inflows
The crypto industry is set to debut the first Solana futures exchange-traded fund (ETF), a significant development that may pave the way for the first Solana spot ETF, as the “next logical step” for crypto-based trading products, according to industry watchers.
Volatility Shares is launching two Solana (SOL) futures ETFs, the Volatility Shares Solana ETF (SOLZ) and the Volatility Shares 2X Solana ETF (SOLT), on March 20.
The debut of the first Solana futures ETF may bring significant new institutional adoption for the SOL token, according to Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research.
Volatility Shares Solana ETF SEC filing. Source: SEC
The analyst told Cointelegraph:
“The launch of the first Solana ETFs in the US could significantly boost Solana’s market position by increasing demand and liquidity for SOL, potentially narrowing the gap with Ethereum’s market cap.”
The Solana ETF will grow institutional adoption by “offering a regulated investment vehicle, attracting billions in capital and reinforcing Solana’s competitiveness against Ethereum,” said Lee, adding that “Ethereum’s entrenched ecosystem remains a formidable barrier.”
Still, other industry participants are concerned that the Solana futures ETF will lead to investor disappointment due to a lack of inflows, as we’ve seen with the spot Ether ETF launch, which was only a “sidekick” to Bitcoin ETFs in terms of inflows, as predicted by Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas.
Related: Bitcoin beats global assets post-Trump election, despite BTC correction
Solana futures ETF may see disappointing inflows, but spot Solana ETFs may be next
While the futures ETF may not bring significant inflows, it legitimizes Solana’s status as a top cryptocurrency, especially after US President Donald Trump announced that his Working Group on Digital Assets would include Solana in the US crypto strategic reserve, along with Cardano’s (ADA) token and XRP (XRP).
“Solana ETFs are in motion creating the possible avenues for more wide-scale adoption,” according to Anmol Singh, co-founder of Bullet, a Solana-native perpetual futures decentralized exchange.
Singh told Cointelegraph:
“Solana spot ETF is yet to be approved but given the increased awareness around Solana and the Futures ETFs this would be a logical next step.”
“We can expect moderate inflows into the futures ETF – spot ETF is generally a better instrument for getting exposure and that will be the major milestone,” he added.
Related: Trump-linked WLFI triples Ether holdings, Solana sees $485M outflows: Finance Redefined
While the adoption rate of futures ETFs is difficult to measure, a spot Solana ETF may attract between $3 billion to $6 billion of net assets in the first six months, eclipsing the adoption rate of Ether ETFs, according to a JPMorgan report seen by Cointelegraph.
SOL and XRP ETPs could attract $3–8 billion. Source: JP Morgan
“When applying these so-called “adoption rates” to SOL and XRP, we see SOL attracting roughly $3 billion-$6 billion of net assets and XRP gathering $4 billion-$8 billion in net new assets,” the report stated.
However, “the timeline could extend into 2026 due to the SEC’s precedent of taking […] 240–260 days to review filings,” James Seyffart, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst, said on Jan. 16.
Magazine: Memecoins are ded — But Solana ‘100x better’ despite revenue plunge
An official from the Bank of Russia suggested easing restrictions on cryptocurrencies in response to the sweeping sanctions imposed on the country.
According to a Monday report by local news outlet Kommersant, Bank of Russia First Deputy Governor Vladimir Chistyukhin said the regulator is discussing easing regulations for cryptocurrencies. He explicitly linked the rationale for this effort to the sanctions imposed on Russia by Western countries following its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Chistyukhin said that easing the crypto rules is particularly relevant when Russia and Russians are subject to restrictions “on the use of normal currencies for making payments abroad.”
Russia banned the use of cryptocurrencies for payments in the summer of 2020.
Chistyukhin said he expects Russia’s central bank to reach an agreement with the Ministry of Finance on this issue by the end of this month. The central issue being discussed is the removal of the requirement to meet the “super-qualified investor” criteria for buying and selling crypto with actual delivery. The requirement was introduced in late April when Russia’s finance ministry and central bank were launching a crypto exchange.
Related: UK sanctions Kyrgyz banks, $9.3B crypto network tied to Russia
What is a super-qualified investor?
The super-qualified investor classification, created earlier this year, is defined by wealth and income thresholds of over 100 million rubles ($1.3 million) or an annual income of at least 50 million rubles.
This limits access to cryptocurrencies for transactions or investment to only the wealthiest few in Russian society. “We are discussing the feasibility of using ‘superquals’ in the new regulation of crypto assets,” Chistyukhin said, in an apparent shifting approach to the restrictive regulation.
Related: How a Russian national allegedly laundered $530M in crypto via Tether
Russia’s fight against sanctions
Russia has been hit with sweeping Western sanctions for years, and regulators in the United States and Europe have increasingly targeted crypto-based efforts to evade those measures.
In late October, the European Union adopted its 19th sanctions package against Russia, including restrictions on cryptocurrency platforms. This also included sanctions against the A7A5 ruble-backed stablecoin, which EU authorities described as “a prominent tool for financing activities supporting the war of aggression.”
Earlier in October, reports indicated that A7A5 — backed by the Russian ruble but issued in Kyrgyzstan — had become the world’s largest non-US-dollar stablecoin. In August, the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control also redesignated cryptocurrency exchange Garantex Europe to its list of sanctioned entities for a second time.
Magazine: When privacy and AML laws conflict: Crypto projects’ impossible choice
Bitcoin’s latest pullback may already be bottoming out, with asset manager Grayscale arguing that the market is on track to break the traditional four-year halving cycle and potentially set new all-time highs in 2026.
Some indicators are already pointing to a local bottom, not a prolonged drawdown, including Bitcoin’s (BTC) elevated option skew rising above 4, which signals that investors have already hedged “extensively” for downside exposure.
Despite a 32% decline, Bitcoin is on track to disrupt the traditional four-year halving cycle, wrote Grayscale in a Monday research report. “Although the outlook is uncertain, we believe the four-year cycle thesis will prove to be incorrect, and that Bitcoin’s price will potentially make new highs next year,” the report said.
Related: Cathie Wood still bullish on $1.5M Bitcoin price target: Finance Redefined
Still, Bitcoin’s short-term recovery remains limited until some of the main flow indicators stage a reversal, including futures open interest, exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and selling from long-term Bitcoin holders.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs, one of the main drivers of Bitcoin’s momentum in 2025, added significant downside pressure in November, racking up $3.48 billion in net negative outflows in their second-worst month on record, according to Farside Investors.
More recently, though, the tide has started to turn. The funds have now logged four consecutive days of inflows, including a modest $8.5 million on Monday, suggesting ETF buyer appetite is slowly returning after the sell-off.
While market positioning suggests a “leverage reset rather than a sentiment break,” the key question is whether Bitcoin can “reclaim the low-$90,000s to avoid sliding toward mid-to-low-$80,000 support,” Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst at digital asset platform Nexo, told Cointelegraph.
Related: Strategy unveils new credit gauge to calm debt fears after Bitcoin crash
Fed policy and US crypto bill loom as 2026 catalysts
Crypto market watchers now await the largest “swing factor,” the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Dec. 10. The Fed’s decision and monetary policy guidance will serve as a significant catalyst for 2026, according to Grayscale.
Markets are pricing in an 87% chance of a 25 basis point interest rate cut, up from 63% a month ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Later in 2026, Grayscale said continued progress toward the Digital Asset Market Structure bill may act as another catalyst for driving “institutional investment in the industry.” However, for more progress to be made, crypto needs to remain a “bipartisan issue,” and not turn into a partisan topic for the midterm US elections.
That effort effectively began with the passage of the CLARITY Act in the House of Representatives, which moved forward in July as part of the Republicans’ “crypto week” agenda. Senate leaders have said they plan to “build on” the House bill under the banner of the Responsible Financial Innovation Act, aiming to set a broader framework for digital asset markets.
The bill is currently under consideration in the Republican-led Senate Agriculture Committee and the Senate Banking Committee. Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott said in November that the committee planned to have the bill ready for signing into law by early 2026.
Magazine: Bitcoin to see ‘one more big thrust’ to $150K, ETH pressure builds
Poland’s President Karol Nawrocki declined to sign a bill imposing strict regulations on the crypto asset market, drawing praise from the crypto community and sharp criticism from others in the government.
Nawrocki vetoed Poland’s Crypto-Asset Market Act, saying its provisions “genuinely threaten the freedoms of Poles, their property, and the stability of the state,” according to a statement by the president’s press office on Monday.
Introduced in June, the bill has drawn criticism from industry advocates such as Polish politician Tomasz Mentzen, who had anticipated the president’s refusal to sign it as it cleared parliamentary approval.
Although crypto advocates welcomed the veto as a win for the market, several government officials condemned the move, claiming the president had “chosen chaos” and must bear full responsibility for the outcome.
Why the president vetoed the bill
One of the main reasons cited for the veto was a provision allowing authorities to easily block websites operating in the crypto market.
“Domain blocking laws are opaque and can lead to abuse,” the president’s office said in an official news release.
The president’s office also cited the bill’s widely criticized length, saying its complexity reduces transparency and would lead to “overregulation,” especially when compared with simpler frameworks in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary.
“Overregulation is an easy way to drive companies to the Czech Republic, Lithuania or Malta, rather than create conditions for them to operate and pay taxes in Poland,” the president said.
Nawrocki also highlighted the excessive amount of supervisory fees, which may prevent startup activity and favor foreign corporations and banks.
“This is a reversal of logic, killing off a competitive market and a serious threat to innovation,” he said.
Critics jump in: “The president chose chaos”
Nawrocki’s veto has triggered a strong backlash from top Polish officials, including Finance Minister Andrzej Domański and Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Radosław Sikorski.
Domański warned on X that “already now 20% of clients are losing their money as a result of abuses in this market,” accusing the president of having “chosen chaos” and saying he bears full responsibility for the fallout.
Related: Spain’s junior ruling party proposes 47% crypto tax in ‘attack against Bitcoin’
Sikorski echoed the concern, saying that the bill was supposed to regulate the crypto market. “When the bubble bursts and thousands of Poles lose their savings, at least they will know who to thank,” Sikorski argued on X.
Crypto advocates, including Polish economist Krzysztof Piech, quickly pushed back, arguing that the president cannot be held responsible for authorities failing to pursue scammers.
He also noted that the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) is set to provide investor protections across all EU member states starting July 1, 2026.
Magazine: When privacy and AML laws conflict: Crypto projects’ impossible choice
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