Connect with us

Published

on

The Bank of England has kept interest rates on hold as it warned of growing economic uncertainty linked to Donald Trump’s trade war. 

The central bank’s monetary policy committee, which meets every six weeks to set borrowing costs, voted 8-1 to keep the bank rate unchanged at 4.5%.

Although the decision was widely expected, the vote was more unified than many assumed.

Just one member of the committee, Swati Dhingra, voted to cut rates by 25 basis points. In what may come as a surprise to some, Catherine Mann, who voted for an outsized 50 basis points cut last month, opted to hold.

The Bank kept its guidance unchanged, pointing to “a gradual and careful approach” to rate cuts, but warned it was prepared to keep borrowing rates higher for longer if wage and price growth continues to persist.

Concerns about constrained supply in the economy – which limits the economy’s ability to grow without sparking inflation – have been playing on policymakers’ minds.

The Bank echoed these concerns again today, alongside warnings about “second-round effects” from higher wages and prices, which could cause inflation to spiral. “This would warrant a relatively tighter monetary path,” it said.

More on Bank Of England

Trade war concerns

Central bankers said they were also contending with an increasingly uncertain global outlook.

In minutes of the meeting published alongside the announcement, the Bank said: “Since the MPC’s previous meeting, global trade policy uncertainty has intensified, and the United States has made a range of tariff announcements, to which some governments have responded.

“Other geopolitical uncertainties have also increased and indicators of financial market volatility have risen globally.”

The Bank was relatively sanguine about the impact of Trump’s tariff policy on the economic growth in the UK but said it could not be certain about the consequences for inflation.

Last night the US Federal Reserve kept its key borrowing rate on hold while downgrading growth forecasts and upgrading its inflation projections.

Central bankers in the UK are also contending with heightened policy uncertainty – both at home and abroad – which means they have been cautious in their approach.

Bank governor Andrew Bailey said: “We have to be quite careful at this point in how we calibrate our response because we’re still seeing a very gradual fall in inflation. We need to accumulate the evidence.”

The Bank started cutting rates in August but, since then, it has reduced the bank rate just three times as policymakers evaluate a mixed economic picture.

Along with fears about supply constraints in the economy, inflation has climbed back above the Bank of England’s 2% target and wage growth continues to outstrip inflation.

Average weekly earnings, including bonuses, did cool from 6.1 % to 5.8% in the three months to January but the figure is still considerably higher than the inflation rate of 3%.

Central bankers keep a close eye on wage growth as they fear wage pressures fuel price pressures in the economy.

Inflationary pressures still exist in the economy but the Bank is balancing that against signs of an economic slowdown.

The economy contracted by 0.1 % at the beginning of the year and the labour market is cooling. Recruiters are warning of a sharper slowdown when the chancellor’s national insurance contribution increases kick in next month.

The Bank of England reiterated this today, warning that business surveys “generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly employment intentions”.

Where to for inflation?

There are also reasons to be sanguine on inflation.

While the headline rate jumped to 3% in January, the increase was driven by one-off factors and base effects, including VAT on private schools and a jump in airfares because of a shift in the timing of the Christmas holidays.

Food inflation also rose but food prices can be volatile.

The Bank is more interested in services inflation, which gives a better indication of domestically generated pressures. This came in at 5%, which was below the Bank’s forecast.

While the headline rate is expected to hit 3.7% by the summer, policymakers have indicated that this is likely to be a bump in the road – driven by a temporary jump in energy prices and rising water and council tax bills from April.

While these will eventually drop out of the inflation rate calculation, that will offer little relief to consumers who will still have to contend with a sustained rise in the price level.

Continue Reading

Business

WH Smith high street arm sold to Hobbycraft owner in £76m deal

Published

on

By

WH Smith high street arm sold to Hobbycraft owner in £76m deal

WH Smith has sold its 233-year old high street business to the owner of Hobbycraft in a £76m deal.

Sky News revealed in January how a sales process was under way for the arm, which employs roughly 5,000 people and has 480 stores.

Modella Capital won the final stage of the auction process in a run off against Alteri investors – both specialists in turning around troubled retailers.

Money latest: Time running out for EV drivers to save £195

The deal will see the WH Smith name erased from town centres to become TGJones.

The sale allows the WH Smith business to focus fully on its lucrative travel retail arm.

That has around 1,200 stores, based mainly at airports and railway stations, in 32 countries globally and accounts for 85% of group profits.

Chief executive Carl Cowling said: “Given our rapid international growth, now is the right time for a new owner to take the High Street business forward and for the WH Smith leadership team to focus exclusively on our Travel business”.

There was no word on what the new owners may do to bolster profitability, with a question mark firmly hanging over employment and the store estate – often the subject of criticism over a perceived lack of investment.

WH Smith’s statement said: “All stores, colleagues, assets and liabilities of the High Street business will move under Modella Capital’s ownership as part of the Transaction.

Read more from Sky News:
Port giant ‘discredited’ by minister despite £1bn investment
Trump tariffs: German town frets over VW future
Boohoo’s Debenhams renaming opposed by Ashley

“Under this new ownership, the business will be led by Sean Toal, currently CEO of the High Street business. The High Street business will operate for a short transitional period under the WHSmith brand whilst the business rebrands as TGJones.”

The sale to Modella represents an enterprise value of £76m on a cash and debt-free basis but will see WH Smith secure an estimated £25m on a net basis after several costs associated with the sale are accounted for.

Shares fell by more than 1% at the open.

Continue Reading

Business

Port giant DP World ‘discredited’ by former minister despite £1bn investment in London Gateway

Published

on

By

Port giant DP World 'discredited' by former minister despite £1bn investment in London Gateway

The chairman of P&O Ferries’ parent company DP World has told Sky News he went ahead with a £1bn investment in the UK despite feeling “discredited” by criticism from a cabinet minister.

P&O was widely criticised in 2022 when more than 700 seafarers were summarily fired and replaced by largely overseas workers without consultation.

Last October, the issue threatened DP World’s planned expansion of London Gateway, its deepwater port on the Thames Estuary, when the then transport secretary, Louise Haigh, described P&O as a “rogue operator”.

Her comments came as DP World was in the final stages of negotiating a £1bn investment in the port, due to be announced at the government’s investment summit.

Money blog: Trump car tariffs condemned around the world

In response, DP World pulled the announcement and only relented following a personal intervention by the prime minister to keep his showpiece event on course.

DP World's chairman Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem
Image:
DP World chairman Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem

Speaking exclusively to Sky News, Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem said the criticism was unexpected given the scale of his planned investment in the UK.

More from Money

‘Water under the bridge’

“There was a misunderstanding. Someone, unfortunately, said something that was not what we expected.

“We were going to invest in infrastructure, a huge investment, and then we get the person in charge to basically discredit us. But it’s water under the bridge.”

Bin Sulayem confirmed that he had spoken with the prime minister and received “reassurances” that Ms Haigh was expressing a personal view. She subsequently resigned after admitting a fraud offence.

The chairman also defended P&O’s conduct, saying that having received no state support during the pandemic, the cuts were necessary to save the company.

“We had a choice. We either close down the company and 3,000 people or more lose their jobs, or we try to survive by letting 700 or so go. And we felt that was right,” he said.

“Maybe we didn’t follow the procedures, but most importantly, we compensated every employee with more than what the law said.”

Read more from Sky News:
Thousands of British Steel jobs at risk
‘Disgraceful’ amount of sewage dumped in rivers

Rebuilding relations

File pic of DP World's London Gateway container port in Stanford-le-Hope, Essex. Pic: PA
Image:
DP World’s London Gateway container port in Stanford-le-Hope, Essex. File pic: PA

Bin Sulayem was speaking on a flying visit to the UK intended to rebuild relations with the government, meeting investment minister Poppy Gustaffsen at London Gateway to discuss an expansion that will make the port Britain’s largest by volume and offering encouraging words about the UK’s attractiveness to investors.

“We believe in the UK economy, in its strength, and we believe the economic fundamentals are strong. That’s why we invested,” he said.

“The UK has the best stock market in the world. You have English law, and you have the best universities in Oxford and Cambridge. If we look to the future, it will be the economy of the brain, not the economy of the hand.

“The world economy doesn’t want labourers, it wants brains. People want engineers. They want free thinkers. They want innovators. That is what’s here, and that’s why we invested in London Gateway.”

DP World's chairman Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem
Image:
Sky’s Paul Kelso with Bin Sulayem

Tariff trade trouble

With ports and logistics operations in more than 70 countries handling around 10% of global trade, DP World’s chairman has a unique insight into global trade and the likely impact of the tariff war sparked by Donald Trump.

While confident that trade will find a way to navigate the disruption, he warned America’s trading partners to take the president seriously.

“I think psychologically it will [have an impact], but in reality it will not, because trade is resilient. I think of it like water coming from the mountain in the rain, nobody can stop it. If you can’t sell a product in one place, you can sell it somewhere else.

“Trump is a deal maker. He is making threats because that’s the way he negotiates. He comes with impossible demands because he wants people to come to the table.

“But he’s serious. He will do what he’s threatening if nobody makes a deal.”

Continue Reading

Business

Bank payday outages ‘will absolutely happen again’, tech expert says

Published

on

By

Bank payday outages 'will absolutely happen again', tech expert says

Payday banking outages will happen again but are unlikely to occur tomorrow, according to a banking technology expert.

Online banking failures on the final Friday of the last two months, payday for many, were seen as millions of customers of different institutions were locked out of accounts or unable to send or receive payments.

At the end of January, Barclays experienced problems in branches and online for days, while in February issues – which did not appear to be related – were encountered by Lloyds, Halifax, Nationwide, TSB, Bank of Scotland and First Direct.

Money blog: Trump car tariffs condemned around world

Similar outages “will absolutely happen again”, said Paul Taylor, chief executive of bank technology company Thought Machine, which sells cloud computing solutions to the banking industry.

Given the attention generated by the last two paydays, Mr Taylor said his guess is this Friday will be safe as every bank’s chief information officer is “super aware” of the day and that “it would be devastating for reputation if anything happened”.

The troubles, however, are not unique to the last two paydays but have just been more visible and complained about, Mr Taylor told Sky News.

More on Banking

“My guess is that we’re talking about visibility, not occurrence. I’m aware of bank problems on paydays for many years.”

Through his job, Mr Taylor said he speaks to a major bank every day and counts Lloyds Banking Group as a client.

Why are glitches happening?

These issues will continue to arise as lenders grapple with “creaking infrastructure”, Mr Taylor said.

“The sheer volume of payments can overwhelm the bank, and that’s why it’s particularly susceptible on this [pay] day”.

“The problem that banks have is that the systems are old and the systems are fragile”, he said.

“One problem causes a knock-on effect, and that knock-on effect ripples through the bank, and then the end result is on payday that the payments don’t get made”.

Solving the issue is expensive and time-consuming, he added, even for banks that have enjoyed higher profits in recent years, thanks to elevated interest rates.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Could ageing tech be behind banking outages?

Many banks are moving to more modern infrastructure, Mr Taylor said, but it takes time and banks don’t want to get it wrong.

But some are “so entrenched in this legacy technology”, he said.

The UK banks are “not that bad” when compared to international competition and each spend billions on IT every year, Mr Taylor caveated.

Despite this, no banks contacted by Sky News said glitches wouldn’t happen again.

What went wrong on paydays?

And when banks were asked what caused the glitches last payday, none responded with an explanation.

After parts of Barclays were down in January, the phenomenon began being investigated by the influential Treasury Committee of MPs.

As part of this, banks were asked to outline the outages they’ve experienced and why.

In the days before the February payday, nine top UK banks told the committee typical reasons for failures included problems with third-party suppliers, disruption caused by systems changes and internal software malfunctions.

Read more from Sky News:
Thousands of jobs at risk at British Steel
‘Disgraceful’ amount of sewage being dumped in English rivers

Those companies had a total of 803 hours of unplanned outages over the last two years, they said, equivalent to 33 days, comprised of 158 individual IT failures.

What have banks said?

TSB and Natwest referred Sky News to the banking lobby group UK Finance, which said it did not know what was behind the past two payday problems.

“The banking industry invests significantly in the resilience of systems and technology,” UK Finance’s managing director of operational resilience David Raw told Sky News.

“The ongoing investment means incidents which cause significant disruption happen very rarely,” he said

“Incidents can be short in duration, but if an issue does arise the bank will always work extremely hard to rectify it as quickly as possible and minimise the customer impact.”

Santander UK said it was not affected by the last two payday outages. “We have robust systems in place to ensure that our services remain operational for customers,” a spokesperson said.

“Since January 2023, our services have been available to customers for 99.9% of the time. When there is a disruption, our priority is to minimise its impact and restore services as quickly as possible and support customers through our alternative channels and ensure that no customer is left out of pocket as a result.”

A spokesperson for HSBC, which also owns First Direct, said: “We continue to invest in our operational resilience to provide the best possible service for our customers”.

“The end of each month brings increased transaction volumes and heightened demand across the banking services industry, and so we plan accordingly – enhancing system capacity as well as limiting non-essential, back-end system changes and updates.”

Nationwide, The Co-operative Bank, Lloyds – who also own the Halifax and Bank of Scotland brands – did not respond to Sky News’s request.

Barclays did not comment.

Continue Reading

Trending