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The chancellor’s update on the economy next week is not going to be an emergency budget in its truest sense. But it will be a moment when the sirens flash red.

It’s not an emergency budget because the chancellor, as our listeners will know from our interview with Rachel Reeves on Electoral Dysfunction a couple of weeks ago, is not going to make tax changes (such a move would tip it into budget territory because it would turn the spring statement into a major fiscal event).

But it looks set to be a red siren moment for a chancellor. Having staked her reputation on growing the economy and no return to austerity, she is going to have to announce a downgrade to growth forecasts and could also unveil the biggest spending squeeze on Whitehall in years.

The welfare cuts this week were just the starter – the opposition are going to have a field day.

Watch out in the next few days for a “re-education” as the Treasury tries to frame the arguments Reeves will get in at the despatch box on Wednesday.

You’ll hear about how the “world has changed”, with global uncertainly knocking growth and forcing countries to invest more in defence.

This is all part of the chancellor seeking to distance sluggish growth from her own budget decisions last October (the Conservatives will shout back jobs tax – their rebranding of the Reeves’ £25bn hike in employers’ national insurance contributions).

More on Rachel Reeves

You will also be hearing more about the need to go “further and faster” on the economy (the bonfire of quangos, planning rules, regulations and drive for ‘efficiency savings’).

But whatever arguments she makes ahead of time won’t dent the sharp inhalation of breath as growth is downgraded and the chancellor outlines what’s likely to be billions in cuts to the departmental budgets in an effort to plug the black hole in the public finances that has emerged from slower growth and rising debt repayments.

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What to expect from the spring statement

Economists expect the deteriorating outlook to eat up the £9.9bn of headroom she had in order to meet her own fiscal rules in the October budget.

The Resolution Foundation think-tank estimates that the current account balance has shifted from that £9.9bn surplus to a deficit of around £4.4bn. Many Labour MPs think Reeves should just loosen her fiscal rules (she has legislated that day-to-day spending must be funded from tax receipts, not debt, by 2029/30), but she told me on our Electoral Dysfunction podcast that is something she will not do.

Neither, I hear, is she prepared to just let the public finances sit in the red. But getting back to black is going to involve a massive spending squeeze.

So watch for reductions in Whitehall departmental budgets later in the parliament.

The government has already earmarked £5bn in savings from the benefits bill by 2029/30 and could whittle back projected rises in departmental spending towards the back end of parliament.

Read more:
What is PIP?
Key welfare changes explained

Departmental spending is set to rise by an average of 1.3% from 2026-27 onwards. If the chancellor reduces that, she could save billions. But the headlines will scream cuts, especially for those departments which don’t have protected budgets and which could face real terms reductions.

It’s going to be difficult and the government is braced for cries of austerity 2.0, which is frustrating officials who are quick to point out that the government has poured billions more into public spending after executing the biggest tax and spend budget in a generation.

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Benefits cuts explained

“This is not a return to austerity, which was about real terms cuts,” said one figure. “We will be finding savings and squeezing spending but the overall level of spending will still be going up.”

But it is tense. As she looks for savings, the chancellor has asked cabinet ministers to identify 5% efficiency savings from their departments and also identify 20% of the lowest priority spending. In private, ministers are protesting about cuts.

Read more:
What could be announced in Rachel Reeves’ spring statement?
What is the spring statement – and what do you need to know?

Labour peer Harriet Harman told the Electoral Dysfunction podcast that identifying such big levels of savings is going to cause consternation.

“As somebody who was told to do 2% and felt even that was incredibly difficult, then I should imagine that it is causing consternation.

“It is a very, very difficult exercise. But, you know, at the end of the day, we’re in difficult circumstances.

“We’ve made a promise to the electorate about how are we going to run the economy, and that’s what we’re going to do.

“And Labour MPs, I think, you know, are very resolved on this. They know the situation’s difficult. They know the government has got a set of principles that they’re applying to it, and they’ll be supportive of the government on this.

“So one thing we have got is political stability on this. There won’t be any, you know, screeching handbrake U-turns. There won’t be massive revolts and there won’t be cabinet splits either.”

The government hopes protest will be dialled down as it dials up talk about ‘reform’ and how the government can rewire Whitehall in a way that money is trained on the frontline and services can be maintained even as budgets are whittled back.

The biggest symbol of that so far being the prime minister’s announcement last week that he was abolishing NHS England and folding the oversight of the NHS back into the Health department – which the government says could save up to £500m a year.

But even if Harriet Harman is right on the would-be rebels and ministers have their arguments honed, a major downgrade of growth forecasts and a spending squeeze from a government that told voters it would be doing the exact opposite in the run-up to the election is set to be a very difficult day indeed.

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Fireball at Southend Airport after small plane crashes

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Fireball at Southend Airport after small plane crashes

A small plane has crashed at Southend Airport in Essex.

Essex Police said it was at the scene of a “serious incident”.

Images posted online showed huge flames and a large cloud of black smoke, with one witness saying they saw a “fireball”.

A police statement said: “We were alerted shortly before 4pm to reports of a collision involving one 12-metre plane.

“We are working with all emergency services at the scene now and that work will be ongoing for several hours.

“We would please ask the public to avoid this area where possible while this work continues.”

Fireball after plane crash at Southend Airport. Pic: Ben G
Image:
A huge fireball near the airport. Pic: Ben G

It has been reported that the plane involved in the incident is a Beech B200 Super King Air.

According to flight-tracking service Flightradar, it took off at 3.48pm and was bound for Lelystad, a city in the Netherlands.

One man, who was at Southend Airport with his family around the time of the incident, said the aircraft “crashed headfirst into the ground”.

John Johnson said: “About three or four seconds after taking off, it started to bank heavily to its left, and then within a few seconds of that happening, it more or less inverted and crashed.

“There was a big fireball. Obviously, everybody was in shock in terms of witnessing it. All the kids saw it and the families saw it.”

Mr Johnson added that he phoned 999 to report the crash.

Southend Airport said the incident involved “a general aviation aircraft”.

Four flights scheduled to take off from Southend this afternoon were cancelled, according to its website.

Flightradar data shows two planes that had been due to land at Southend were diverted to nearby airports London Gatwick and London Stansted.

Smoke rising near Southend airport. Pic: UKNIP
Image:
Plumes of black smoke. Pic: UKNIP

Essex County Fire and Rescue Service said four crews, along with off-road vehicles, have attended the scene.

Four ambulances and four hazardous area response team vehicles are also at the airport, as well as an air ambulance, the East of England Ambulance Service said.

Its statement described the incident as “still developing”.

Fire engines at the scene at Southend Airport
Image:
Fire engines at the airport

David Burton-Sampson, the MP for Southend West and Leigh, posted on social media: “I am aware of an incident at Southend Airport. Please keep away and allow the emergency services to do their work.

“My thoughts are with everyone involved.”

Local councillor Matt Dent said on X: “At present all I know is that a small plane has crashed at the airport. My thoughts are with all those involved, and with the emergency services currently responding to the incident.”

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.

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Heidi Alexander says ‘fairness’ will be government’s ‘guiding principle’ when it comes to taxes at next budget

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Heidi Alexander says 'fairness' will be government's 'guiding principle' when it comes to taxes at next budget

Another hint that tax rises are coming in this autumn’s budget has been given by a senior minister.

Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander was asked if Sir Keir Starmer and the rest of the cabinet had discussed hiking taxes in the wake of the government’s failed welfare reforms, which were shot down by their own MPs.

Trevor Phillips asked specifically if tax rises were discussed among the cabinet last week – including on an away day on Friday.

Politics Hub: Catch up on the latest

Tax increases were not discussed “directly”, Ms Alexander said, but ministers were “cognisant” of the challenges facing them.

Asked what this means, Ms Alexander added: “I think your viewers would be surprised if we didn’t recognise that at the budget, the chancellor will need to look at the OBR forecast that is given to her and will make decisions in line with the fiscal rules that she has set out.

“We made a commitment in our manifesto not to be putting up taxes on people on modest incomes, working people. We have stuck to that.”

Ms Alexander said she wouldn’t comment directly on taxes and the budget at this point, adding: “So, the chancellor will set her budget. I’m not going to sit in a TV studio today and speculate on what the contents of that budget might be.

“When it comes to taxation, fairness is going to be our guiding principle.”

Read more:
Reeves won’t rule out tax rises

What is a wealth tax and how would it work?

👉Listen to Politics at Sam and Anne’s on your podcast app👈      

Afterwards, shadow home secretary Chris Philp told Phillips: “That sounds to me like a barely disguised reference to tax rises coming in the autumn.”

He then went on to repeat the Conservative attack lines that Labour are “crashing the economy”.

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Chris Philp also criticsed the government’s migration deal with France

Mr Philp then attacked the prime minister as “weak” for being unable to get his welfare reforms through the Commons.

Discussions about potential tax rises have come to the fore after the government had to gut its welfare reforms.

Sir Keir had wanted to change Personal Independence Payments (PIP), but a large Labour rebellion forced him to axe the changes.

With the savings from these proposed changes – around £5bn – already worked into the government’s sums, they will now need to find the money somewhere else.

The general belief is that this will take the form of tax rises, rather than spending cuts, with more money needed for military spending commitments, as well as other areas of priority for the government, such as the NHS.

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Justice system ‘frustrating’, Met Police chief says – as he admits London’s ‘shameful’ racism challenge

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Justice system 'frustrating', Met Police chief says - as he admits London's 'shameful' racism challenge

It is “shameful” that black boys growing up in London are “far more likely” to die than white boys, Metropolitan Police chief Sir Mark Rowley has told Sky News.

In a wide-ranging interview with Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, the commissioner said that relations with minority communities are “difficult for us”, while also speaking about the state of the justice system and the size of the police force.

Sir Mark, who came out of retirement to become head of the UK’s largest police force in 2022, said: “We can’t pretend otherwise that we’ve got a history between policing and black communities where policing has got a lot wrong.

“And we get a lot more right today, but we do still make mistakes. That’s not in doubt. I’m being as relentless in that as it can be.”

He said the “vast majority” of the force are “good people”.

However, he added: “But that legacy, combined with the tragedy that some of this crime falls most heavily in black communities, that creates a real problem because the legacy creates concern.”

Sir Mark, who also leads the UK’s counter-terrorism policing, said black boys growing up in London “are far more likely to be dead by the time they’re 18” than white boys.

“That’s, I think, shameful for the city,” he admitted.

“The challenge for us is, as we reach in to tackle those issues, that confrontation that comes from that reaching in, whether it’s stop and search on the streets or the sort of operations you seek.

“The danger is that’s landing in an environment with less trust.

“And that makes it even harder. But the people who win out of that [are] all of the criminals.”

Met Police Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley said racism is still an issue in the force
Image:
Met Police Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley

The commissioner added: “I’m so determined to find a way to get past this because if policing in black communities can find a way to confront these issues, together we can give black boys growing up in London equal life chances to white boys, which is not what we’re seeing at the moment.

“And it’s not simply about policing, is it?”

Sir Mark said: “I think black boys are several times more likely to be excluded from school, for example, than white boys.

“And there are multiple issues layered on top of each other that feed into disproportionality.”

‘We’re stretched, but there’s hope and determination’

Sir Mark said the Met is a “stretched service” but people who call 999 can expect an officer to attend.

“If you are in the middle of a crisis and something awful is happening and you dial 999, officers will get there really quickly,” Sir Mark said.

“I don’t pretend we’re not a stretched service.

“We are smaller than I think we ought to be, but I don’t want to give a sort of message of a lack of hope or a lack of determination.”

“I’ve seen the mayor and the home secretary fighting hard for police resourcing,” he added.

“It’s not what I’d want it to be, but it’s better than it might be without their efforts.”

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How police tracked and chased suspected phone thief

‘Close to broken’ justice system facing ‘awful’ delays

Sir Mark said the criminal justice system was “close to broken” and can be “frustrating” for police officers.

“The thing that is frustrating is that the system – and no system can be perfect – but when the system hasn’t managed to turn that person’s life around and get them on the straight and narrow, and it just becomes a revolving door,” he said.

“When that happens, of course that’s frustrating for officers.

“So the more successful prisons and probation can be in terms of getting people onto a law-abiding life from the path they’re on, the better.

“But that is a real challenge. I mean, we’re talking just after Sir Brian Leveson put his report out about the close-to-broken criminal justice system.

“And it’s absolutely vital that those repairs and reforms that he’s talking about happen really quickly, because the system is now so stressed.”

Giving an example, the police commissioner went on: “We’ve got Snaresbrook [Crown Court] in London – it’s now got more than 100 cases listed for 2029.”

Sir Mark asked Trevor Phillips to imagine he had been the victim of a crime, saying: “We’ve caught the person, we’ve charged him, ‘great news, Mr Phillips, we’ve got him charged, they’re going to court’.

“And then a few weeks later, I see the trial’s listed for 2029. That doesn’t feel great, does it?”

Asked about the fact that suspects could still be on the streets for years before going to trial, Sir Mark conceded it’s “pretty awful”.

He added: “If it’s someone on bail, who might have stolen your phone or whatever, and they’re going in for a criminal court trial, that could be four years away. And that’s pretty unacceptable, isn’t it?”

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Leveson explains plans to fix justice system

Challenge to reform the Met

The Met chief’s comments come two years after an official report found the force is institutionally racist, misogynistic and homophobic.

Baroness Casey was commissioned in 2021 to look into the Met Police after serving police officer Wayne Couzens abducted, raped and murdered Sarah Everard.

She pinned the primary blame for the Met’s culture on its past leadership and found stop and search and the use of force against black people was excessive.

At the time, Sir Mark, who had been commissioner for six months when the report was published, said he would not use the labels of institutionally racist, institutionally misogynistic and institutionally homophobic, which Baroness Casey insisted the Met deserved.

However, London Mayor Sadiq Khan, who helped hire Sir Mark – and could fire him – made it clear the commissioner agreed with Baroness Casey’s verdict.

A few months after the report, Sir Mark launched a two-year £366m plan to overhaul the Met, including increased emphasis on neighbourhood policing to rebuild public trust and plans to recruit 500 more community support officers and an extra 565 people to work with teams investigating domestic violence, sexual offences and child sexual abuse and exploitation.

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