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Rachel Reeves will unveil further welfare cuts in her spring statement after being told the reforms announced last week will save less than planned, Sky News understands.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has rejected the government’s assessment that the package of measures, including narrowing the eligibility criteria for personal independence payments (PIP), will save £5bn.

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The fiscal watchdog put the value of the cuts at £3.4bn, leaving ministers scrambling to find further savings.

Ms Reeves is now expected to announce that universal credit (UC) incapacity benefits for new claimants, which were halved under the original plan, will also be frozen until 2030 rather than rising in line with inflation

As originally reported by The Times, there will also be a small reduction in the basic rate of UC in 2029, with the new measures expected to raise £500m.

A Whitehall source told Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby that it is “hard to tell how MPs will react”, as while the OBR’s assessment means fewer people will be affected by the PIP changes than thought, they “might be unhappy about the chaotic nature of it all”.

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The government did not publish an impact assessment of the crackdown on benefits it announced last week, saying that would come alongside the spring statement on Wednesday.

Several Labour MPs criticised the measures as pushing more sick and disabled people into poverty, while former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn called the package a “disgrace” on Tuesday and accused the government of imposing austerity on the country.

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‘Labour MPs are upset’

Spending cuts expected

Ms Reeves is expected to announce a large package of departmental spending cuts when she gives an update on the economy on Wednesday, potentially putting her on a further collision course with her own MPs.

Having only committed to doing one proper budget each year in the autumn, the spring statement was meant to be a low-key affair.

However, a turbulent economic climate since October means the OBR is widely expected to downgrade its growth forecasts for the UK while the government has borrowed more than previously expected.

This has wiped out the £9.9bn gap in her fiscal headroom Ms Reeves left herself at her budget last year – money she needs to make up if she wants to stick to her self-imposed fiscal rule that day-to-day spending must be funded through tax receipts, not debt, by 2029-30.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves during a visit to Bury College in Greater Manchester. Picture date: Thursday March 20, 2025. Anthony Devlin/PA Wire
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Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Pic: PA

The chancellor has sought to blame global factors but the Conservatives blame measures like the national insurance tax hike on employers, saying this is choking business.

Shadow chancellor Mel Stride urged Ms Reeves to “use the emergency budget” to “fix her own mistakes and end Labour’s war on enterprise”.

Ms Reeves will defend her record in the spring statement, saying she is “proud” of what Labour has achieved in its first nine months in office.

However, on the eve of the statement, polling showed the public is pessimistic about what is to come.

According to More in Common, half think the cost of living crisis will never end, while YouGov found three-quarters of people want to see a tax on the richest over spending cuts.

Ms Reeves is not expected to announce any tax hikes, having said her tax-raising budget in October was a once-in-a-parliament event.

Read more:
Chancellor can make decisions now without too much fallout
Expect different focus from Reeves at spring statement

Defence increase to ‘deliver security’

In a bid to fend off criticism, she will also announce an extra £2.2bn will be spent on defence over the next year to “deliver security for working people”.

The money is part of the government’s aim to hike defence spending to 2.5% of the UK’s economic output by 2027 – up from the 2.3% where it stands now.

Ms Reeves will insist this plan, set out by the prime minister in February, was the “right decision” against the backdrop of global instability, saying it will put “an extra 6.4bn into the defence budget by 2027”.

“This increase in investment is not just about increasing our national security but increasing our economic security, too,” she will say.

The money is coming from reductions to the international aid budget and Treasury reserves, and will be used to invest in new technology, refurbish homes for military families and upgrade HM Naval Base Portsmouth.

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Trump says Musk ‘off the rails’ for forming political party to rival GOP

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Trump says Musk ‘off the rails’ for forming political party to rival GOP

Trump says Musk ‘off the rails’ for forming political party to rival GOP

US President Donald Trump has blasted Elon Musk’s plan to start a new political party that could splinter the Republican vote in the 2026 midterm elections.

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MP recalls childhood abuse as he calls for law change to make domestic abuse a specific criminal offence

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MP recalls childhood abuse as he calls for law change to make domestic abuse a specific criminal offence

An MP who decided until recently to “never speak” about the abuse he suffered as a child has shared his harrowing story so that “no kid has to go through” what he did.

Josh Babarinde describes being physically abused by his mother’s former partner from the age of four, and remembers crying himself to sleep under the covers “hearing shouts, hearing screams and things smash”.

He says he became hypervigilant growing up and felt safe at school but “like he was treading on eggshells” in his own home.

The Eastbourne MP, who is also the Liberal Democrats’ justice spokesperson, says his experience has driven his politics. He is calling on the government to stop abusers “slipping through the net” and being released from prison early.

Opening up about his story in his twenties was “difficult” but looking back, Mr Babarinde says, he is “so proud of the resilience of that kid”.

The MP recently found his childhood diary containing Star Wars drawings alongside an entry he wrote from the bathroom. The diary, he recalls, wrote: “I’m really going to try to go (to the toilet) but I can’t. Oh my goodness, I’m gonna be in so much trouble, I’m going to get smacked so hard.”

Then an entry five minutes later: “I still haven’t done anything, I’m going to be in so much trouble.”

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He says reading the entry reminded him of how “helpless” he felt.

“It was mortifying,” he says. “An abuser takes away your sense of self-worth.”

Josh Babarinde speaking to Sky's Ali Fortescue.
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Mr Babarinde says he wants the government to ‘properly recognise domestic abuse crimes in the law’

The 32-year-old is calling on the government to change the law to make domestic abuse a specific criminal offence. The change would mean, he argues, abusers can no longer effectively disguise their history under other offences like assault.

He says the Ministry of Justice’s early release scheme, which has seen thousands of prisoners released early to ease overcrowding, has failed to exclude domestic abusers despite government promises because there is no formal categorisation for offenders.

It is impossible, he argues, to know exactly how many domestic abusers are in prison currently so perpetrators are “slipping through the net” on early release.

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January: Rising violence against women and girls

Mr Babarinde says the uncertainty means victims and survivors are not able to prepare for their abuser’s release.

He said: “They might need to move house or move their kids to a new school, shop in different places. All of these kind of things are so important, and so that’s why that commitment the government made was so important.”

A spokesperson for the Ministry of Justice said: “Our thoughts are with all victims of domestic abuse – it takes immense courage to speak out.

“We are building a justice system that puts victims first – strengthening support, increasing transparency, and giving people the confidence to come forward and be heard.”

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Another tantrum from the Labour backbenches is inevitable

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Rachel Reeves hints at tax rises in autumn budget after welfare bill U-turn

In common with many parents across the country, here’s a conversation that I have with my young daughter on a semi-regular basis (bear with me, this will take on some political relevance eventually).

Me: “So it’s 15 minutes until your bedtime, you can either have a little bit of TV or do a jigsaw, not both.”

Daughter: “Ummmm, I want to watch TV.”

Me: “That’s fine, but it’s bed after that, you can’t do a jigsaw as well.”

Fast-forward 15 minutes.

Me: “Right, TV off now please, bedtime.”

(Pause)

Daughter: “I want to do a jigsaw.”

Now replace me with the government, the TV and jigsaw options with axing welfare cuts and scrapping the two-child cap, and my daughter with rebellious backbenchers.

Politics latest: Former Labour leader calls for wealth tax on assets above £10m

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Rachel Reeves’s fiscal dilemma

That is the tension currently present between Downing Street and Labour MPs. And my initial ultimatum is the messaging being pumped out from the government this weekend.

In essence: you’ve had your welfare U-turn, so there’s no money left for the two-child cap to go as well.

As an aside – and before my inbox fills with angry emails lambasting me for using such a crude metaphor for policies that fundamentally alter the lives of some of the most vulnerable in society – yes, I hear you, and that’s part of my point.

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Welfare U-turn ‘has come at cost’

For many in Labour, this approach feels like the lives of their constituents are being used in a childish game of horse-trading.

So what can be done?

Well, the government could change the rules.

Altering the fiscal rules is – and will likely remain – an extremely unlikely solution. But as it happens, one of Labour’s proverbial grandparents has just popped round with a different suggestion.

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Welfare: ‘Didn’t get process right’ – PM

A wealth tax, Lord Neil Kinnock says, is the necessary outcome of the economic restrictions the party has placed on itself.

Ever the Labour storyteller, Lord Kinnock believes this would allow the government to craft a more compelling narrative about whose side this administration is on.

That could be valuable, given one of the big gripes from many backbench critics is that they still don’t really understand what this prime minister stands for – and by extension, what all these “difficult decisions” are in aid of.

The downside is whether it will actually raise much money.

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Is Corbyn an existential risk to Labour?

The super-rich may have lots of assets to take a slice from, but they also have expensive lawyers ready to find novel ways to keep their client’s cash away from the prying eyes of the state.

Or, of course, they could just leave – as many are doing already.

In the short term, the future is a bit easier to predict.

If Downing Street is indeed now saying there is no money to scrap the two-child cap (after heavy briefing in the opposite direction just weeks ago), an almighty tantrum from the backbenches is inevitable.

And as every parent knows, the more you give in, the harder it becomes to hold the line.

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