OBR slashes UK growth forecast for 2025 but upgrades it for rest of parliament, chancellor says

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1 week ago

March 26, 2025

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The Office for Budget Responsibility has halved the UK growth forecast for 2025 from 2% to 1%, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has said.

However, the fiscal watchdog said that while growth has been downgraded for this year, it had been upgraded for every year after for the rest of this parliament – which is due to end in 2029.

The chancellor said she is “not satisfied with the numbers” for this year as she delivered her long-awaited spring statement in the House of Commons this afternoon.

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But, she explained, the OBR has forecast growth to hit 1.9% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027, 1.7% in 2028, and 1.8% in 2029.

She told MPs: “There are no shortcuts to economic growth. It will take long-term decisions. It will take hard yards. It will take time for the reforms we are introducing to be felt in the every day economy.

“It is right that the Office for Budget Responsibility consider the evidence and look carefully at measures before recognising a growth impact in their forecast.”

The chancellor pointed to changes to the National Planning Policy Framework, saying mandatory housing targets and bringing “grey belt” land into scope for development will “permanently increase the level of real GDP by 0.2% by 2029-30”.

This will bring an “additional £6.8bn in our economy and by 0.4% of GDP within the next 10 years”, she said.

Ms Reeves also highlighted reforms to the pension system and a national wealth fund, adding it was part of a “serious plan” for economic growth.

Also announced in the spring statement today:

The budget will move from a deficit of £36.1bn in 2025/26 and £13.4bn in 2026/27, to a surplus of £6bn in 2027/28, £7.1bn in 2028/29 and £9.9bn in 2029/30;
The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates Labour’s cuts to the welfare budget will save £4.8bn, with changes going further than initially thought;
Reeves says the health element of universal credit will be cut by half and frozen for new claimants;
There are no more tax rises today, but the chancellor claims she’ll raise an extra billion pounds by cracking down more on tax evasion;
Day-to-day spending will be protected, other than the aid budget, with spending increasing above inflation every year;
The defence budget will get a £2.2bn boost for next year, paving the way for spending eventually hitting 2.5% of GDP;
House building will hit a 40-year-high thanks to Labour’s planning reforms.

The chancellor confirmed that a voluntary redundancy scheme is set to launch for civil servants as part of her mission to “make government leaner”. She said this will deliver £3.5bn in “day-to-day savings by 2029-30”.

Shortly afterwards, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch accused Labour of financial “chaos”.

She said the spring statement was “all smoke and mirrors”, adding: “I remember the last budget when Rachel Reeves said she was smashing glass ceilings, now it feels like the roof is falling over all our heads.”

A handful of Labour MPs were unimpressed with the moves around welfare, with Debbie Abrahams – the MP for Oldham East and Saddleworth – claiming “all the evidence points to cuts in welfare leading to severe poverty and worsened health conditions”.

An impact assessment into Labour’s welfare reforms, which include narrowing the eligibility criteria for personal independence payments (PIP), found there could be an additional 250,000 people in “relative poverty” by 2030 due to the changes.

Richard Burgon, the Labour MP for Leeds East, said “taking away the personal independence payments” from disabled people is an “especially cruel choice”.

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‘Will the PM side with parents or tech bros?’: Labour peer demands action on children’s smartphone safety

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1 hour ago

April 4, 2025

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'Will the PM side with parents or tech bros?': Labour peer demands action on children's smartphone safety

Sir Keir Starmer needs to choose between parents who want stronger action to tackle harmful content on children’s phones, or the “tech bros” who are resisting changes to their platforms, Baroness Harriet Harman has said.

Speaking to Beth Rigby on Sky News’ Electoral Dysfunction podcast, the Labour peer noted that the prime minister met with the creators of hit Netflix drama Adolescence to discuss safety on social media, but she questioned if he is going to take action to “stop the tech companies allowing this sort of stuff” on their platforms where children can access it.

Sir Keir hosted a roundtable on Monday with Adolescence co-writer Jack Thorne and producer Jo Johnson to discuss issues raised in the series, which centres on a 13-year-old boy arrested for the murder of a young girl, and the rise of incel culture.

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The aim was to discuss how to prevent young boys being dragged into a “whirlpool of hatred and misogyny”, and the prime minister said the four-part series raises questions about how to keep young people safe from technology.

Sir Keir has backed calls for the four-part drama to be shown in all schools across the country, but Baroness Harman questioned what is going to be achieved by having young people simply watch the show.

“Two questions were raised [for me],” she said. ” Firstly – after they’ve watched it, what is going to be the discussion afterwards?

“And secondly, is he going to act to stop the tech companies allowing this sort of stuff to go online into smartphones without protection of children?

“Because if the tech companies wanted to do this, they could actually protect children. They can do everything they want with their tech.”

She acknowledged there are “very big public policy challenges” in this area, but added of the prime minister: “Is he going to side with parents who are terrified and want this content off their children’s phones, or is he going to accept the tech bros’ resistance to having to make changes?”

Click here to listen to Electoral Dysfunction on your podcast app

Can parliament keep up?

The Labour peer backed the Conservative Party’s call for a ban on smartphones in schools to be mandated from Westminster, saying it would “enable all schools not to have a discussion with their parents or to battle it out, but just to say, this is the ruling” from central government, which Ofsted would then enforce.

“I’m sensitive to the idea that we shouldn’t constantly be telling schools what to do,” she continued. “And they’ve got a lot of common sense and a lot of professional experience, and they should have as much autonomy as possible.

“But perhaps it’s easier for them if it’s done top down.”

Baroness Harman also questioned the speed with which parliament is actually able to legislate to deal with the very rapid development of new technologies, and posits that it could “change its processes to be able to legislate in real time”.

She suggested that a “powerful select committee” of MPs could be established to do that, because “otherwise we talk about it, and then we’re not able to legislate for 10 years – by which time that problem has really set in, and we’ve got a whole load more problems”.

On the podcast, the trio also discussed the 10% tariffs imposed on the UK by Donald Trump and the government’s efforts to strike a trade deal with the US to mitigate the impact of the levy.

The government has refused to rule out scrapping the Digital Services Tax, a 2% levy on tech giants’ revenues in the UK, as part of the negotiations with the Trump administration – a move Baroness Harman said would be “very heartbreaking”.

Click here to listen to Electoral Dysfunction on your podcast app

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Bakkt investors file class-action lawsuit after loss of Webull, BoA contracts

Published

4 hours ago

April 4, 2025

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Bakkt investors file class-action lawsuit after loss of Webull, BoA contracts

A group of investors with cryptocurrency custody and trading firm Bakkt Holdings filed a class-action lawsuit alleging false or misleading statements and a failure to disclose certain information.

Lead plaintiff Guy Serge A. Franklin called for a jury trial as part of a complaint against Bakkt, senior adviser and former CEO Gavin Michael, CEO and president Andrew Main, and interim chief financial officer Karen Alexander, according to an April 2 filing in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York.

The group of investors allege damages as the result of violations of US securites laws and a lack of transparency surrounding its agreement with clients: Webull and Bank of America (BoA).

Law, Investments, United States, Bakkt — *April 2 complaint against Bakkt and its executives. Source: PACER*

The loss of Bank of America and Webull will result “in a 73% loss in top line revenue” due to the two firms making up a significant percentage of its services revenue, the investor group alleges in the lawsuit. The filing stated Webull made up 74% of Bakkt’s crypto services revenue through most of 2023 and 2024, and Bank of America made up 17% of its loyalty services revenue from January to September 2024.

Bakkt disclosed on March 17 that Bank of America and Webull did not intend to renew their agreements with the firm ending in 2025. The announcement likely contributed to the company’s share price falling more than 27% in the following 24 hours. The investors allege Bakkt “misrepresented the stability and/or diversity of its crypto services revenue” and failed to disclose that this revenue was “substantially dependent” on Webull’s contract.

“As a result of Defendants’ wrongful acts and omissions, and the precipitous decline in the market value of the Company’s securities, Plaintiff and other Class members have suffered significant losses and damages,” said the suit.

Other law offices said they were investigating Bakkt for securities law violations, suggesting additional class-action lawsuits may be in the works. Cointelegraph contacted Bakkt for a comment on the lawsuit but did not receive a response at the time of publication.

Prices affected by Trump Media reports

Bakkt’s share price surged roughly 162% in November 2024 after reports suggested that then-US President-elect Donald Trump’s media company was considering acquiring the firm. As of April 2025, neither company has officially announced a deal.

Shares in Bakkt (BKKT) were $8.15 at the time of publication, having fallen more than 36% in the previous 30 days.

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Trump tariffs squeeze already struggling Bitcoin miners — Braiins exec

Published

11 hours ago

April 4, 2025

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Trump tariffs squeeze already struggling Bitcoin miners — Braiins exec

The new trade tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump may place added pressure on the Bitcoin mining ecosystem both domestically and globally, according to one industry executive.

While the US is home to Bitcoin (BTC) mining manufacturing firms such as Auradine, it’s still “not possible to make the whole supply chain, including materials, US-based,” Kristian Csepcsar, chief marketing officer at BTC mining tech provider Braiins, told Cointelegraph.

On April 2, Trump announced sweeping tariffs, imposing a 10% tariff on all countries that export to the US and introducing “reciprocal” levies targeting America’s key trading partners.

Community members have debated the potential effects of the tariffs on Bitcoin, with some saying their impact has been overstated, while others see them as a significant threat.

Tariffs compound existing mining challenges

Csepcsar said the mining industry is already experiencing tough times, pointing to key indicators like the BTC hashprice.

Hashprice — a measure of a miner’s daily revenue per unit of hash power spent to mine BTC blocks — has been on the decline since 2022 and dropped to all-time lows of $50 for the first time in 2024.

According to data from Bitbo, the BTC hashprice was still hovering around all-time low levels of $53 on March 30.

“Hashprice is the key metric miners follow to understand their bottom line. It is how many dollars one terahash makes a day. A key profitability metric, and it is at all-time lows, ever,” Csepcsar said.

He added that mining equipment tariffs were already increasing under the Biden administration in 2024, and cited comments from Summer Meng, general manager at Chinese crypto mining supplier Bitmars.

“But they keep getting stricter under Trump,” Csepcsar added, referring to companies such as the China-based Bitmain — the world’s largest ASIC manufacturer — which is subject to the new tariffs.

Trump’s latest measures include a 34% additional tariff on top of an existing 20% levy for Chinese mining imports. In response, China reportedly imposed its own retaliatory tariffs on April 4.

BTC mining firms to “lose in the short term”

Csepcsar also noted that cutting-edge chips for crypto mining are currently massively produced in countries like Taiwan and South Korea, which were hit by new 32% and 25% tariffs, respectively.

“It will take a decade for the US to catch up with cutting-edge chip manufacturing. So again, companies, including American ones, lose in the short term,” he said.

Csepcsar also observed that some countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States region, including Russia and Kazakhstan, have been beefing up mining efforts and could potentially overtake the US in hashrate dominance.

“If we continue to see trade war, these regions with low tariffs and more favorable mining conditions can see a major boom,” Csepcsar warned.

As the newly announced tariffs potentially hurt Bitcoin mining both globally and in the US, it may become more difficult for Trump to keep his promise of making the US the global mining leader.

Trump’s stance on crypto has shifted multiple times over the years. As his administration embraces a more pro-crypto agenda, it remains to be seen how the latest economic policies will impact his long-term strategy for digital assets.

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