Here is a number to lodge in your brain in the coming weeks and months: 48%.

Last year a group of economists carried out an an analysis on the economic impact of the Iron Curtain; how much trade actually took place from east to west in spite of all the restrictions during the Cold War. They came to the conclusion that, at its height in 1951, “the Iron Curtain represented a tariff equivalent of 48%”.

As the world limbers up ahead of what Donald Trump calls his “liberation day”, that figure is worth keeping in your mind.

Right now, the average dutiable rate of tariffs on China is somewhere between 30% and 40%. But in the event that the president imposes another 20% of tariffs on China, the level of tariffs between these two trade partners will rival or possibly exceed those Iron Curtain levels.

No-one is sure what will happen next. What number will the President choose for his next round of tariffs? 10%? 20%? Or the 25% rate he has favoured for steel, aluminium and cars? Will the next round of tariffs announced this week be imposed on every country? Will they just be imposed on the so-called “dirty fifteen” the Treasury Secretary has talked about? Who, for that matter, are the “dirty fifteen”?

We don’t know the answers to these questions. Nor do other world leaders like Keir Starmer. Nor, for that matter, do many in the White House, it seems.

But, back to that number at the top. The tariffs being talked about by the president and his colleagues are now approaching serious levels. Once you start facing cumulative tariffs approaching 50% then, as we saw during the Cold War, many countries stop trading altogether.

And with those kinds of charges looming it’s no surprise many businesses and traders are taking radical steps to try to prepare for the coming months of chaos. Consider two examples.

The first is to be found if you look at the exports (transfers is probably a better word in this case) of gold from the UK to the US. Up until a few months ago these flows averaged about £22m a month. Then, as traders fretted about the imposition of tariffs and controls on everything (including gold), there was a totally unprecedented exodus of gold bars from the UK to the US – £1.2bn in December and £6.1bn in January. These numbers, it goes without saying, are totally unprecedented. We’ve never seen outflows like this before.

The other data point (somewhat related) is to be found by looking at the US balance of payments. Remember the whole point of these tariffs is to try to eliminate (or at least reduce) America’s trade deficit with the rest of the world. President Trump wants the country to produce more goods and import less.

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But in the past year, the US trade deficit has literally doubled. Up from £67bn in January last year to £131bn this January. Again, this is unprecedented. It’s a hallmark of the fact that importers were scrambling to bring as much stuff into the country as possible (not just gold, but machinery, metals, cars, electronics – everything) before tariffs got imposed.

The great irony, then, is that the first impact of the Trump tariffs has been to send the trade deficit in the opposite direction from the one the President is aiming for. It will, of course, lurch back the other way in the coming months. But where it ends is anyone’s guess. In the meantime, more chaos and instability awaits. Hold onto your hats.

One of the astronauts who was stranded on the International Space Station (ISS) has said some of the blame for what went wrong lies with him.

Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams splashed down off the coast of Florida earlier this month after more than nine months onboard the ISS.

The two astronauts docked at the ISS on 5 June last year, expecting to be there for just eight days.

Instead, issues with Boeing’s long-awaited Starliner meant NASA decided to leave them waiting in orbit for months.

Wilmore: ‘Start with me’ for blame

Mr Wilmore was asked at a NASA news conference on Monday evening where he lays the blame for the issues with Starliner, to which he said, “I’ll start with me”.

“There were issues, of course, with what happened with Starliner,” he added. “There were some issues, of course, that happened that prevented us from returning on Starliner.

“And I’ll start with me because there were questions that, as the commander of the spacecraft that I should have asked. And I did not, I didn’t know I needed to…

“Blame, that’s a term – I don’t like that term – certainly there’s responsibility throughout all the programmes, and certainly you can start with me.”

He then added that responsibility for the issues with returning home can be found “all throughout the chain”, including with NASA and Boeing.

Williams: ‘Life goes on up there’

Ms Williams also said she was somewhat surprised by the interest in their prolonged space mission.

“Life goes on up there. I mentioned today that we pivoted and became [ISS] crew members,” she said. “You maybe sort of get tunnel visioned into doing your job.

“We were just really focused on what we were doing… ‘the world doesn’t revolve around us but we revolve around it’.”

Ms Williams then said: “I don’t think we were aware to the degree [people were interested], pretty honoured and humbled by the fact of when we came home, it was like ‘wow there are a lot of people’.”

During their long wait in space, the two US navy veterans completed spacewalks, experiments and even helped sort out the plumbing onboard the ISS.

Sky’s science and technology editor Tom Clarke asked the astronauts if the politics around their stay in the ISS made a difficult situation worse. Nick Hague – who also was onboard the Crew-9 flight – disagreed.

After explaining the timeline from the launch of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 to the return of the two astronauts, he said: “That was never in question the entire time.

“The politics don’t make it up there when we’re making operational decisions. There were a lot of options that were discussed, and the team on the ground… is gigantic, and everyone was working with a singular focus.”

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Astronauts more guarded answers show NASA giving politics a wide berth

Tom Clarke

Science and technology editor

@t0mclark3

The life of an astronaut is all about preparation.

And as Butch and Suni faced questions for the first back on Earth time about how their “stranding” in space was treated like an orbital political football – that really shone through.

The astronauts looked healthy and relaxed, despite having spent 35 times longer in space than they had expected to.

They were happy to answer questions about their safe return, the effects of their extended stay in space on their bodies.

But when it came to politics, the answers were much more guarded.

When I asked them about whether politics had made their difficult situation worse, it was quickly picked up, not by the pair themselves, but by astronaut Nick Hague, their mission commander for the ride back to Earth.

“The politics don’t make it up there when we’re making operational decisions,” he said.

“There were a lot of options discussed by the ground team, and everyone worked with singular focus on how do we end the Crew 9 mission at the right time and maintain the safety and the success of the space station mission.”

Their reluctance to address the political questions around the mission is understandable.

They have returned to a NASA bracing itself, like many federally funded organisations, for possible budget cuts and the mercurial decision-making of Donald Trump and his close ally Elon Musk.

Both men had suggested it was a political decision by the previous administration not to return them to Earth sooner.

Painting their already scheduled return as a “rescue mission” – despite presenting no evidence of the claim it put NASA in an embarrassing position.

It has been maintained all along that the plan was for the pair to return to Earth with the next rotation of the space station crew. Which is what subsequently happened.

But in the current political climate, and still awaiting the confirmation of a new leader for NASA’s administration, it’s giving politics a wide berth.

The crew were also asked about how weird it was to return to Earth in the SpaceX capsule – and about the welcome party of dolphins that swam around the vessel after splashdown.

“I can tell you that returning from space to Earth through the atmosphere inside of a 3000-degree fireball of plasma is weird, regardless of how you look at it,” Mr Wilmore said.

“It’s thrilling, it’s amazing, I remember thinking about the structure of the capsule,” as the Dragon Freedom capsule descended at pace toward our planet.

“And then the parachutes open and… it’s exhilarating.”

Mr Hague then remarked, “I had requested dolphins as kind of a joke”.

The president of Finland says Donald Trump is running out of patience with Vladimir Putin and is frustrated with him.

The Finnish leader spoke to Sky News after spending the day with the US president and playing golf with him.

Alexander Stubb said Donald Trump is “the only person who can broker a peace, a ceasefire, because he’s the only one that Putin is afraid of” – but is tiring of the Russian leader’s tactics.

Kremlin responds to Trump’s ‘p***ed off’ comments – Ukraine latest

“There was a combination of impatience and a tad of frustration,” he said during their match in Florida over the weekend – and it wasn’t with his golf swing.

“We were talking a lot about the ceasefire and the frustrations he had that Russia was not committing to it.”

Mr Stubb’s comments confirm reports of a change in attitude by Mr Trump over the Russian leader.

He has until recently seemed more than happy to give Putin the benefit of the doubt, applying enormous pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy instead.

Putin’s refusal to accept a 30-day ceasefire though is changing that, according to the Finnish leader.

He said: “If there was a pendulum of trust and distrust, certainly Russian activity in the past few weeks has proven that we’re moving more towards the distrust side of things.”

Mr Stubb is urging the imposition of colossal sanctions on Russia if it does not accept the ceasefire by a deadline that he says should be set for Easter.

The US is considering sanctions on Russian oil, he said. “Oil, oil prices, serious caps on oil.”

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Republican senator Lindsey Graham, who also played golf with Mr Stubb on Saturday, is proposing what he has called “bone breaking sanctions” if it does not comply with ceasefire demands.

Sanctions failed to deter Russia from invading Ukraine in the first place or reverse its invasion since.

But Mr Stubb insists Russia’s economic pain is now reaching a critical point and sanctions could tip it over the brink.

He said: “You never underestimate the capacity of Russians to live through discomfort. I mean that’s what the Soviet Union was really about. But at the same time, there has to be a wall at some stage. And I think that wall is approaching.”

If Donald Trump is losing patience with Russia, is he prepared to do anything about it?

“I think we need a colossal amount of sanctions on 20 April if the Russians don’t abide by the ceasefire,” said Mr Stubb.

But is Donald Trump’s Finnish golfing partner confident he is going to apply that pressure?

“Fairly confident,’ he said. “More confident than hopeful.”

It may take more than that to persuade Putin there is something to really worry about.