Donald Trump wants to redraw the political map of the world. His vision seems to be that smaller countries – such as perhaps Greenland, Ukraine and Taiwan – should fall under the sway of their local big power as the US, Russia and China expand their regional zones of influence.
There is a vicious logic to this new world order if one excludes the principles of democracy, independence, co-existence, borders and basic rights for all nations, regardless of size. It simply asserts that might is right. Mr Trump believes the US is the mightiest country and he is set on Making America Great Again at home and abroad.
Sucking up to the presidency
This is a grim prospect for a middle-sized post-imperial power like the United Kingdom. The leaders of Labour, the Conservatives, and Reform UK have chosen not to go public with any private misgivings they may have about the Trump administration’s intentions. They have all concluded that sucking up is the best way to handle the new presidency.
Image: King Charles. Pic: AP
This explains the astonishing reports that the King might invite the United States to become an associate member of the Commonwealth when Mr Trump visits him in Scotland later this year to plan his second state visit to this country.
Mr Trump has already welcomed the news about joining up with the Commonwealth. “I love King Charles. Sounds good to me!” he posted on his Truth Social platform.
There has been no official invitation to the president. “Associate” membership of the organisation does not exist. New members require the agreement of all 56 existing member countries. It is not up to the King, who is nominal head of the Commonwealth, or even the British government. And it is not called “the British” Commonwealth anymore.
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Still, stranger things have happened – will happen again now Mr Trump is back in the White House.
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The first approach may merely be an invitation to become an associate of the Royal Commonwealth Society (RCS), which describes itself as “a network of individuals and organisations committed to improving the lives and prospects of Commonwealth citizens across the world”.
The RCS has already offered that to Mr Trump in 2017 shortly after his first election. Nigel Farage delivered the letter in person. Like most clubs the RCS is hungry to expand and has also put out feelers to Ireland and Nordic countries.
Neither Mr Trump nor the British government would leave it at this trivial level. He is a great disrupter always on the lookout for the upside in any deal and with a record of turning some ideas which seemed laughable into reality.
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1:50
Why is Trump getting a second state visit?
Starmer government has overlooked everything
The prime minister laid it on thick in the Oval Office with the “unprecedented”, “historic” second state visit invitation. Most US presidents, including those who have been conspicuous friends of this country, never get one.
The Starmer government has decided not to criticise the Trump administration. They have overlooked everything from claiming Canada as the 51st state to top officials breaching security on a Signal phone group in which they expressed “hate” for “PATHETIC” European “freeloaders”. In direct contrast to their Americanophilia, ministers are reluctant to discuss closer ties with Europeans.
It would be entirely consistent with this government’s sycophancy to try to engineer a further inducement to the US in the form of closer involvement in the Commonwealth, a last vestige of UK soft power.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer and Donald Trump. Pic: PA
Trump as the King’s successor?
Mr Trump would see any deal as a takeover in which he was the equal to the King, and his probable successor as head of the Commonwealth. He would be likely to try to remake the organisation with a so-called “White Commonwealth” dominating the other members.
That would go down well with his ethno-nationalist supporters back home. It is already the vision of one British champion of US participation.
“Commonwealth union – not least a CANZUK union between Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the UK – really should be a cross-party no-brainer for the British. What exactly does the UK have to lose?” asks the political commentator Jonathan Saxty in The Daily Express.
This nation’s integrity would be at stake. Only a truly “perfidious Albion” would let Mr Trump into the Commonwealth in the hope of buying his favour.
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2:11
What happened when Starmer met Trump?
The King would not be happy
The King, who has done his best to indicate support for his realm of Canada against Mr Trump’s threats, would not be happy. The legs would still be knocked out from under Canada’s resistance. All Commonwealth members would face the option of going it alone outside the alliance or bowing to Mr Trump. The US would meanwhile try to exploit old British ties to counter China’s growing influence in Africa and Asia.
There are already some in the UK ready to throw in their lot with the US. But not all of the coalition which elected Mr Trump agrees with his imperialistic expansionism.
America First isolationists tore into him after his “sounds good” comment, on his own Truth Social network. One wrote: “HELL NO !!! We left UK & kicked their asses once, NEVER going back. Personally I don’t associate with TYRANTS. All of their ‘commonwealth’ can F off, eh !!! SCUMBAGS !!!”
Another posted: “No! King Charles has been amongst the top players of WEF, for years. He’s a globalist. Americans do not want to join their Commonwealth. The U.K. allowed itself to fall to muslim invaders & Charles has ‘secret offer’ for you? Hard no from ALL of your supporters!”
Alex Jones of the conspiracy website Infowars warned: “If you really try to make America join the British Commonwealth, 1776 will commence again!” adding, “I love Trump overall… but sometimes he does just the most terrible things.”
No sign Trump’s fanbase is deserting him
Terrible or not, there is no sign this fanbase is deserting the president. As their Signal chat showed his closest aides embrace his simplistic, extractive, what’s the “economic upside” for us approach to foreign relations.
The British government should think very carefully about what they are prepared to offer up voluntarily to a rapacious American bully in this global geopolitical struggle.
Hamas has said it has “submitted its positive response” to the latest proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza to mediators.
The proposal for a 60-day ceasefire was presented by US President Donald Trump, who has been pushing hard for a deal to end the fighting in Gaza, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu set to visit the White House next week to discuss a deal.
Mr Trump said Israel had agreed to his proposed ceasefire terms, and he urged Hamas to accept the deal as well.
Hamas’ “positive” response to the proposal had slightly different wording on three issues around humanitarian aid, the status of the Israeli Defence Forces inside Gaza and the language around guarantees beyond the 60-day ceasefire, a source with knowledge of the negotiations revealed.
But the source told Sky News: “Things are looking good.”
Image: A woman cries after her son was killed while on his way to an aid distribution centre. Pic: AP/Jehad Alshrafi
Hamas said it is “fully prepared to immediately enter into a round of negotiations regarding the mechanism for implementing this framework” without elaborating on what needed to be worked out in the proposal’s implementation.
The US said during the ceasefire it would “work with all parties to end the war”.
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A Hamas official said on condition of anonymity that the truce could start as early as next week.
Image: An Israeli army tank advances in the Gaza Strip, as seen from southern Israel. Pic: AP/Leo Correa
But he added that talks were needed first to establish how many Palestinian prisoners would be released in return for each freed Israeli hostage and to specify the amount of humanitarian aid that will be allowed to enter Gaza during the ceasefire.
He said negotiations on a permanent ceasefire and the full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza in return for the release of the remaining hostages would start on the first day of the truce.
Hamas has been seeking guarantees that the 60-day ceasefire would lead to a total end to the nearly 21-month-old war, which caused previous rounds of negotiations to fail as Mr Netanyahu has insisted that Israel would continue fighting in Gaza to ensure the destruction of Hamas.
The Hamas official said that Mr Trump has guaranteed that the ceasefire will extend beyond 60 days if necessary to reach a peace deal, but there is no confirmation from the US of such a guarantee.
Speaking to journalists on Air Force One, Mr Trump welcomed Hamas’s “positive spirit” to the proposal, adding that there could be a ceasefire deal by next week.
Image: Palestinians dispersing away from tear gas fired at an aid distribution site in Gaza. Pic: AP
Image: A girl mourns the loss of her father, who was killed while heading to an aid distribution hub. Pic: AP/Jehad Alshrafi
Hamas also said it wants more aid to flow through the United Nations and other humanitarian agencies, which comes as the UN human rights officer said it recorded 613 Palestinians killed in Gaza within a month while trying to obtain aid.
Most of them were said to have been killed while trying to reach food distribution points by the controversial US- and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF).
The spokeswoman for the UN human rights office, Ravina Shamdasani, said the agency was not able to attribute responsibility for the killings, but added that “it is clear that the Israeli military has shelled and shot at Palestinians trying to reach the distribution points” operated by GHF.
Image: Palestinians carry aid packages near the GHF distribution centre in Khan Younis. Pic: AP/Abdel Kareem Hana
Ms Shamdasani said that of the total tallied, 509 killings were “GHF-related”, meaning at or near its distribution sites.
The GHF accused the UN of taking its casualty figures “directly from the Hamas-controlled Gaza health ministry” and of trying “to falsely smear our effort”, which echoed statements to Sky News by the executive director of GHF, Johnnie Moore.
Since that phone call, Dr Bahbah has been living temporarily in Qatar where he is in direct contact with officials from Hamas. He has emerged as an important back-channel American negotiator. But how?
An inauguration party
I first met Dr Bahbah in January. It was the eve of President Trump’s inauguration and a group of Arab-Americans had thrown a party at a swanky restaurant in Washington DC’s Wharf district.
There was a sense of excitement. Arab-Americans were crediting themselves for having helped Trump over the line in the key swing state of Michigan.
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Image: Dr Bahbah negotiating with Hamas for the release of Edan Alexander
Despite traditionally being aligned with the Democrats, Arab-Americans had abandoned Joe Biden in large numbers because of his handling of the Gaza war.
I’d reported from Michigan weeks earlier and been struck by the overwhelming support for Trump. The vibe essentially was ‘it can’t get any worse – we may as well give Trump a shot’.
Mingling among diplomats from Middle Eastern countries, wealthy business owners and even the president of FIFA, I was introduced to an unassuming man in his late 60s.
We got talking and shared stories of his birthplace and my adopted home for a few years – Jerusalem.
Image: Dr Bahbah and Trump
He told me that he still has the deed to his family’s 68 dunum (16 acre) Palestinian orchard.
With nostalgia, he explained how he still had his family’s UN food card which shows their allocated monthly rations from their time living in a refugee camp and in the Jerusalem’s old city.
Dr Bahnah left Jerusalem in 1976. He is now a US citizen but told me Jerusalem would always be home.
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1:58
Will Trump achieve a Gaza ceasefire?
He echoed the views I had heard in Michigan, where he had spent many months campaigning as the president of Arab-Americans for Trump.
He dismissed my scepticism that Trump would be any better than Biden for the Palestinians.
We exchanged numbers and agreed to meet for lunch a few weeks later.
A connection with Trump
Dr Bahbah invited two Arab-American friends to our lunch. Over burgers and coke, a block from the White House, we discussed their hopes for Gaza under Trump.
The three men repeated what I had heard on the campaign trail – that things couldn’t get any worse for the Palestinians than they were under Biden.
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2:54
Gaza deaths increase when aid sites open
Trump, they said, would use his pragmatism and transactional nature to create opportunities.
Dr Bahbah displayed to me his own initiative too. He revealed that he got a message to the Palestinian Authority President, Mahmoud Abbas, to suggest he ought to write a personal letter of congratulations to President Trump.
A letter from Ramallah was on the Oval Office desk on 6 November, a day after the election. It’s the sort of gesture Trump notices.
It was clear to me that the campaigning efforts and continued support of these three wealthy men had been recognised by the Trump administration.
They had become close to key figures in Trump’s team – connections that would, in time, pay off.
There were tensions along the way. When Trump announced he would “own Gaza”, Dr Bahbah was disillusioned.
“Arab-Americans for Trump firmly rejects President Donald J Trump’s suggestion to remove – voluntarily or forcibly – Palestinians in Gaza to Egypt and Jordan,” he said.
Image: Letter from Abbas to Trump. Pic: Bishara Bahbah
He then changed the name of his alliance, dropping Trump. It became Arab-Americans for Peace.
I wondered if the wheels were coming off this unlikely alliance.
Was he realising Trump couldn’t or wouldn’t solve the Palestinian issue? But Dr Bahbah maintained faith in the new president.
“I am worried, but at the same time, Trump might be testing the waters to determine what is acceptable…,” he told me in late February as the war dragged on.
“There is no alternative to the two-state solution.”
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He told me that he expected the president and his team to work on the rebuilding of Gaza and work to launch a process that would culminate in the establishment of a Palestinian state, side by side in peace with Israel.
It was, and remains, an expectation at odds with the Trump administration’s official policy.
The phone call
In late April, Dr Bahbah’s phone rang. The man at the other end of the line was Dr Ghazi Hamad, a senior member of Hamas.
Dr Bahbah and Dr Hamad had never met – they did not know each other.
But Hamas had identified Dr Bahbah as the Palestinian-American with the most influence in Trump’s administration.
Dr Hamad suggested that they could work together – to secure the release of all the hostages in return for a permanent ceasefire.
Hamas was already using the Qatari government as a conduit to the Americans but Dr Bahbah represented a second channel through which they hoped they could convince President Trump to increase pressure on Israel.
There is a thread of history which runs through this story. It was the widow of former Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat who passed Dr Bahbah’s number to Dr Hamad.
In the 1990s, Dr Bahbah was part of a Palestinian delegation to the multilateral peace talks.
He became close to Arafat but he had no experience of a negotiation as delicate and intractable as this.
The first step was to build trust. Dr Bahbah contacted Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East envoy.
Witkoff and Bahbah had something in common – one a real-estate mogul, the other an academic, neither had any experience in diplomacy. It represented the perfect manifestation of Trump’s ‘outside the box’ methods.
But Witkoff was sceptical of Dr Bahbah’s proposal at first. Could he really have any success at securing agreement between Israel and Hamas? A gesture to build trust was necessary.
Bahbah claims he told his new Hamas contact that they needed to prove to the Trump administration that they were serious about negotiating.
Within weeks a remarkable moment more than convinced Dr Bahbah and Witkoff that this new Hamas back-channel could be vitally important.
We were told at the time that his release was a result of a direct deal between Hamas and the US.
Israel was not involved and the deal was described by Hamas as a “good faith” gesture. Dr Bahbah sees it as his deal.
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27:55
Doctors on the frontline
Direct talks took place between Dr Bahbah and five Hamas officials in Doha who would then convey messages back to at least 17 other Hamas leadership figures in both Gaza and Cairo.
Dr Bahbah in turn conveyed Hamas messages back to Witkoff who was not directly involved in the Hamas talks.
A Qatari source told me that Dr Bahbah was “very involved” in the negotiations.
But publicly, the White House has sought to downplay his role, with an official telling Axios in May that “he was involved but tangentially”.
The Israeli government was unaware of his involvement until their own spies discovered the backchannel discussion about the release of Alexander.
Since that April phone call, Dr Bahbah has remained in the Qatari capital, with trips to Cairo, trying to help secure a final agreement.
He is taking no payment from anyone for his work.
As he told me when we first met back in January: “If I can do something to help to end this war and secure a future for the Palestinian people, I will.”
It is one of the most notorious and secret places in Iran.
Somewhere foreign journalists are never allowed to visit or film. The prison where dissidents and critics of Iran’s government disappear – some never to be seen again.
But we went there today, invited by Iranian authorities eager to show the damage done there by Israel.
Evin Prison was hit by Israeli airstrikes the day before a ceasefire ended a 12-day war with Iran. The damage is much greater than thought at the time.
We walked through what’s left of its gates, now a mass of rubble and twisted metal, among just a handful of foreign news media allowed in.
A few hundred yards in, we were shown a building Iranians say was the prison’s hospital.
Behind iron bars, every one of the building’s windows had been blown in. Medical equipment and hospital beds had been ripped apart and shredded.
Image: Debris scattered across what Iran says was the prison hospital
It felt eerie being somewhere normally shut off to the outside world.
On the hill above us, untouched by the airstrikes, the buildings where inmates are incarcerated in reportedly horrific conditions, ominous watch towers silhouetted against the sky.
Evin felt rundown and neglected. There was something ineffably sad and oppressive about the atmosphere as we wandered through the compound.
The Iranians had their reasons to bring us here. The authorities say at least 71 people were killed in the air strikes, some of them inmates, but also visiting family members.
Image: Authorities say this building was the visitor centre
Iran says this is evidence that Israel was not just targeting military or nuclear sites but civilian locations too.
But the press visit highlighted the prison’s notoriety too.
Iran’s critics and human rights groups say Evin is synonymous with the brutal oppression of political prisoners and opponents, and its practice of hostage diplomacy too.
British dual nationals, including Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe were held here for years before being released in 2022 in exchange for concessions from the UK.
Image: Inmates are held in building on a hill above, which has been untouched by airstrikes
Interviewed about the Israeli airstrikes at the time, Ms Zaghari-Ratcliffe showed only characteristic empathy with her former fellow inmates. Trapped in their cells, she said they must have been terrified.
The Israelis have not fully explained why they put Evin on their target list, but on the same day, the Israeli military said it was “attacking regime targets and government repression bodies in the heart of Tehran”.
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The locus of their strikes were the prison’s two entrances. If they were trying to enable a jailbreak, they failed. No one is reported to have escaped, several inmates are thought to have died.
The breaches the Israeli missiles made in the jail’s perimeter are being closed again quickly. We filmed as a team of masons worked to shut off the outside world again, brick by brick.