Connect with us

Published

on

Donald Trump flourished his list of tariffs like a gameshow host in the White House Rose Garden on Wednesday – but there were no winners from the president’s made-for-TV show of economic strength.

The price was wrong for everyone and there is jeopardy for all, the US included.

From Asian nations in the engine room of global consumer manufacturing, facing tariffs above 40%, to the UK, handed the base rate of 10% alongside a host of nations including a group of uninhabited Antarctic islands, the terms of trade have fundamentally changed.

Trump tariffs latest: US stock markets tumble

The question now is what impact the tariffs will have locally, regionally and globally; and what nations should do in response.

The penguins of the Heard and McDonald Islands may be able to move on with a shrug, but not so Britain, where months of diplomatic effort concentrated on the Trump regime has delivered only the knowledge that it could have been worse.

The impact is hard to assess definitively, not least because nothing quite like this has ever happened in the era of trade liberation.

Mr Trump has stuck a spoke in the wheel of the global consensus, that ever-freer trade is good for everyone.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Sky’s Gurpreet Narwan drills down into the numbers

The Office for Budget Responsibility has hazarded a guess that a trade war could wipe 1% off UK GDP, worth around £33bn. What is clear is that the impact will be diverse and multi-level.

The direct impact will be felt hardest by the largest goods exporters. Car manufacturers face a huge blow, with 25% tariffs on the luxury vehicles Britain still does well adding a cost to US consumers, who account for 18% of the sector’s exports, worth around £8bn.

The pharmaceutical industry has much to lose too, though exports worth almost £9bn in 2023 appeared to have a stay of execution thanks to a clause in Trump’s executive order.

For the manufacturing industry, the tariffs will be “devastating”, according to the trade body Make UK, with second-round effects almost as damaging as the 10% notionally paid by US consumers.

Read more:
World leaders react to Trump’s announcement
Do Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ numbers add up?

The UK may have left the EU but British industry still does a huge amount of business feeding supply chains for European products now subject to a 20% levy.

Anyone toasting a “Brexit benefit” from the EU’s misfortune still fails to understand the interconnectedness of our commercial relations.

Add the general cooling of the global economy caused by the richest nation on Earth’s demand to be made wealthier still, and it is a grim outlook.

What is to be done?

All of which begs the second question, what to do?

The UK’s mantra has been to remain pragmatic and calm in response, while continuing to seek an “economic agreement” with the US that includes an easing of tariffs.

Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds showed a little mettle in Parliament, and a slight hardening of the UK line, by announcing a consultation with businesses over potential retaliatory tariffs.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Trump tariffs ‘disappointing’, says business secretary

Some sectors would like to see a muscular response, with the steel industry anxious that, in the event of a global trade war, a neutral UK would become a target for the “dumping” of cheap steel from exporters priced out of the US and EU.

Sectoral specifics aside, the truth is that the UK has limited ammunition in a trade war with the US. We buy around £60bn of goods, with machinery, fuels and chemicals, alongside Harley Davidson motorbikes and bottles of Jack Daniel’s, but the bulk of our trade is in services, professional skills flowing west and big tech coming the other way.

The digital services tax, currently extracting around £800m a year from US tech companies, is one chip Britain has to play in negotiations.

Some might call that a small price to pay to support the car industry, while others would see capitulation to social media giants and their billionaire backers.

As a senior cabinet minister put it shortly before Mr Trump’s election: “As a small nation outside a major trading bloc, getting involved in a trade war does not make a lot of sense.”

It was sound logic then and now. Unless the host of Trump Tariffs changes his tune, damage limitation may be the only prize on offer.

Continue Reading

Business

Advertising mogul Sorrell approached about S4 Capital deal

Published

on

By

Advertising mogul Sorrell approached about S4 Capital deal

Sir Martin Sorrell, the advertising mogul, has received a number of merger approaches for S4 Capital, the London-listed marketing services group he founded seven years ago.

Sky News can reveal that Sir Martin has been contacted in recent weeks by potential suitors including One Equity Partners, a US-based private equity firm which focuses on acquiring companies in the healthcare, industrials, and technology sectors.

This weekend, analysts suggested that One Equity would seek to combine S4 Capital with MSQ, a creative and technology agency group it bought in 2023.

Further details of the possible tie-up were unclear on Saturday, including whether a formal proposal had been made or whether S4 Capital might remain listed on the London Stock Exchange if a deal were to be completed.

S4 Capital is also understood to have attracted recent interest from other parties, the identities of which could not be immediately established.

In March 2024, the Wall Street Journal reported that Sir Martin had rebuffed several offers from Stagwell, an advertising group led by Mark Penn, a former adviser to President Bill Clinton.

New Mountain Capital, another American private equity firm, was also said at the time to have held talks about buying parts or all of S4 Capital.

Read more from Sky News
Freddo creator’s daughter will never buy one again
Visma owners close to picking banks for £16bn float
Reeves’s flagship policy could end up having opposite effect

News of One Equity’s approach puts the venture founded by one of Britain’s most prominent business figures firmly in play after a torrid period in which it has been buffeted by macroeconomic headwinds and a number of accounting issues.

Sir Martin founded S4 Capital in 2018, months after his unexpected and acrimonious departure from WPP, the group he transformed from a manufacturer of wire baskets into the world’s largest provider of marketing services.

The businessman, who has voting control at S4 Capital, used his deep network of institutional relationships to raise money for an acquisition spree at S4, which included technology-focused agencies such as MediaMonks and MightyHive.

S4’s clients now include Alphabet, Amazon, General Motors, Meta, T-Mobile, and Walmart.

Sir Martin’s decision to target acquisitions in the digital content and programmatic media arenas reflected the priorities of what he described as a marketing services group for a new era.

At WPP, he was the architect of a now-widely replicated strategy to assemble hundreds of agency brands under one holding company.

By the time he stepped down, WPP was the owner of creative agency networks such as JWT and Ogilvy, while its media-buying muscle was channelled through the global subsidiary GroupM.

The latest approaches for S4 Capital come during a period of profound change in the global marketing services industry, as artificial intelligence dismantles practices and creative processes that had evolved over decades.

Sir Martin has spurned few opportunities to criticise his successor at WPP, Mark Read, as well as the wider advertising industry, in the seven years since he established S4 Capital.

Last month, WPP announced that Mr Read would be replaced by Cindy Rose, a senior Microsoft executive who has sat on the company’s board as a non-executive director since 2019.

“Cindy has supported the digital transformation of large enterprises around the world – including embracing AI to create new customer experiences, business models and revenue streams,” the WPP chairman, Philip Jansen, said.

“Her expertise in this landscape will be hugely valuable to WPP as the industry navigates fundamental changes and macroeconomic uncertainty.”

WPP has also forfeited its status as the world’s largest marketing services empire to Publicis, and will be shunted even further behind the sector’s biggest players once Omnicom Group’s $13.25bn (£9.85bn) takeover of Interpublic Group is completed.

At the time of Sir Martin’s exit from WPP in April 2018, the company had a market capitalisation of more than £16bn.

On Friday, its market value at its closing share price of 367.5p was just £4.23bn.

Last month, the advertising industry news outlet Campaign reported that WPP had held tentative discussions with the consulting firm Accenture about a potential combination or partnership, underscoring the pressure on legacy marketing services groups.

This weekend, it remained unclear how likely it was that Sir Martin would consummate a deal to combine S4 Capital with another industry player such as One Equity-owned MSQ.

Shares in S4 Capital closed on Friday at 21.2p, giving the company a market capitalisation of £140m.

The stock has fallen by nearly 60% during the last 12 months, and is more than 90% lower than its peak in 2022.

At one point, Sir Martin’s stake in S4 Capital was valued at close to £500m.

A spokeswoman for S4 declined to comment, while a spokesman for One Equity Partners said by email: “OEP is not commenting on this matter.”

Continue Reading

Business

Visma owners close to picking banks for £16bn London float

Published

on

By

Visma owners close to picking banks for £16bn London float

The owners of Visma, one of Europe’s biggest software companies, are close to hiring bankers for a £16bn flotation that would rank among the London market’s biggest for years.

Sky News understands that Visma’s board and shareholders have convened a beauty parade of investment banks in the last fortnight ahead of an initial public offering (IPO) likely to take place in 2026.

Citi, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are understood to be among those in contention for the top roles on the deal, City insiders said on Friday.

Several banks are expected to be appointed as global coordinators on the IPO as soon as this month.

Visma is a Norwegian company which supplies accounting, payroll, HR and other business software to well over one million small business customers.

It has grown at a rapid rate in recent years, both organically and through scores of acquisitions, and has seen its profitability and valuation rise substantially during that period.

More from Money

The business is now valued at about €19bn (£16.4bn) and is partly owned by a number of sovereign wealth funds and other private equity firms.

The majority of the company is owned by Hg, the London-based private equity firm which has backed a string of spectacularly successful companies in the software industry.

Visma’s owners’ decision to pick the UK ahead of competition from Amsterdam represents a welcome boost to the City amid ongoing questions about the attractiveness of the London stock market to international companies.

Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, used last month’s speech at Mansion House to launch a taskforce aimed at generating additional IPO activity in the UK.

Spokespeople claiming to represent Visma at Kekst, a communications firm, did not respond to a series of enquiries about the IPO appointments.

Hg also failed to respond to a request for comment.

Continue Reading

Business

Carlyle to seize control of online retailer Very Group from Barclay family

Published

on

By

Carlyle to seize control of online retailer Very Group from Barclay family

The American investment giant Carlyle is preparing to take control of Very Group, one of Britain’s biggest online retailers, in a deal that will end the Barclay family’s long tenure at another major UK company.

Sky News has learnt that Carlyle, which is the biggest lender to Very Group’s immediate parent company, could assume ownership of the retailer as soon as October under the terms of its financing arrangements.

On Friday, sources said that Carlyle was expected to hold further talks in the coming weeks with fellow creditors including IMI, the Abu Dhabi-based vehicle which assumed part of Very Group’s debts in a complex deal related to ownership of the Telegraph newspaper titles.

Carlyle will probably end up holding a majority stake in Very Group, which has about 4.5 million customers, once it exercises a ‘step-in right’ which effectively converts its debt into equity ownership, the sources said.

Very Group – which is chaired by the former Conservative chancellor Nadhim Zahawi – borrowed a further £600m from Arini, a Mayfair-based fund, earlier this year as it sought to stave off a cash crunch and buy itself breathing space.

Precise details of the company’s capital and ownership structure will be thrashed out before the change of control rights are triggered at the beginning of October.

The Barclay family drew up plans to hire bankers to run an auction of Very Group earlier this year, but a process was never formally launched.

More from Money

Carlyle, which declined to comment, may hold onto the business for a further period before looking to offload it.

IMI is also likely to end up with an equity stake or a preferred position in the recapitalised company’s debt structure, sources added.

Prospective bidders for Very Group were expected to be courted on the basis of its technology-driven financial services arm as well as the core retail offering which sells everything from electrical goods to fashion.

Retail industry insiders have long speculated that the business was likely to be valued in the region of £2.5bn – below the valuation which the Barclay family was holding out for in an auction which took place several years ago.

Very Group – previously known as Shop Direct – is one of the UK’s biggest online shopping businesses, owning the Very and Littlewoods brands and employing 3,700 people.

It boasts well over £2bn in annual sales, with about one-fifth of that generated by its Very Finance consumer lending arm.

Mr Zahawi was appointed as the company’s chairman last year, days after he announced that he was standing down as the MP for Stratford-on-Avon at July’s general election.

He replaced Aidan Barclay, a senior member of the family which has owned the business for decades.

In the 39 weeks to 29 March, Very Group reported a 3.8% fall in revenue to £1.67bn, which it said included “a decrease in Littlewoods revenue of 15.1%, reflecting the ongoing managed decline of this business”.

Nevertheless, it said sales in its home and sports categories were performing strongly.

IMI’s position is expected to be pivotal to the talks about the future of the business, given Abu Dhabi’s status as an important global backer of buyout, credit and infrastructure funds such as those raised and managed by Carlyle.

The UAE vehicle is expected to emerge from the protracted saga over the Telegraph’s ownership with a 15% stake in the newspapers.

Under the original deal struck in 2023, RedBird and IMI paid a total of £1.2bn to refinance the Barclay family’s debts to Lloyds Banking Group, with half tied to the media assets and the other half – solely funded by IMI – secured against other family assets including part of Very Group’s debt pile.

The Barclays, who used to own London’s Ritz hotel, have already lost control of other corporate assets including the Yodel parcel delivery service.

A spokesman for Very Group declined to comment, while IMI also declined to comment.

Continue Reading

Trending