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Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs last week spooked the markets. 

Stock markets tumbled on Monday, with most US markets down and stocks in Hong Kong falling 13.2%, their worst day since 1997 during the Asian financial crisis.

There was slight growth in Asian and UK markets on Tuesday, but recovery is still a way off after a steep decline in reaction to Mr Trump’s tariffs on goods imported to the US, which he announced last week.

Tariffs latest: Follow live updates

US economists at Goldman Sachs raised their assessment of the odds that America will tip into recession to 45%, up from 35% the week before.

And if most tariffs aren’t reduced or negotiated away, “we expect to change our forecast to a recession”, Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius said in an analyst note.

Other economists are raising similar alarms, with JPMorgan putting the odds of a US and global recession at 60% and projecting inflation will reach 4.4% by the end of this year, up from 2.8% currently.

How do you know if a recession has begun?

The most commonly used definition of a recession is at least two consecutive quarters of economic contraction – or “negative growth” – in gross domestic product (GDP).

To break that down, GDP is the total value of goods and services produced over a specific time period. When it goes up, the economy is considered to be doing well.

When it goes down – negative growth or economic contraction – it’s not doing well. And when it doesn’t do well for six months, it counts as a recession.

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Trump: ‘No pause to tariffs’

In the US, the National Bureau of Economic Research is the body which officially declares a recession – taking in a variety of economic data, not just GDP, defining it as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months”.

Currently, there are no signs the US or global economy is in recession, and it remains unknown if tariffs will have a large enough impact to knock America’s into reverse.

But it is this uncertainty that has the potential to cause the most damage.

“People are all at sea,” Sky News Business Live presenter Darren McCaffrey told the Sky News Daily podcast.

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“No one can quite work out whether President Trump wants a genuine rewiring of globalisation, what the consequences of that will be for the US and globally, and that these tariffs will remain permanent, or whether this is part of a negotiating tactic.

“That’s what no one can work out. That uncertainty is difficult, and it is going to cause damage.”

Stockbroker Russ Mould added that the markets are hoping the Trump administration is planning to use tariffs as a way of extracting better trade deals from existing trade partners. If this happens, it would help restore global trade to what’s been the standard in recent decades.

A screen shows trading of the Dow Jones Industrial Average after the closing bell. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Pic: Reuters

What could a global recession mean?

If the US and the rest of the world falls into recession – even if the UK doesn’t – it will “fundamentally mean we will all be poorer in the future,” McCaffrey said.

He added that Britain especially has not had a prolonged period of serious economic growth for a long time – held back by the financial crisis in 2008, the shock of Brexit, COVID, the Ukraine war and now US tariffs.

However, it is not all doom and gloom.

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Day 79: Trump’s tariff turmoil

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“The markets will always find a way,” McCaffrey says.

“The US is the world’s largest economy, but it is only 13% of global trade. Countries like China, Vietnam, Cambodia and others with high tariffs will find new markets. And one of the places that benefit from that in the short-medium term could be the UK.

“It will also force big wealthy blocs – the biggest of which is the EU – to look for new markets. Canada is also suggesting they would like a trade deal with the UK.

“This will cause damage to the US economy more than anywhere else, because other countries will want to be more reliant on more stable partners. As always with economics, there are winners and losers and ultimately the market will find a place for lots of these goods.”

How could the UK best prepare for potential recession?

Instead of retaliatory tariffs, the UK is looking to secure a post-Brexit trade deal with the US, Russ Mould explained, calling that “the UK’s primary goal”.

But if the UK is stuck with tariffs in the long-term, Mr Mould said it would be wise to consider deals with other countries.

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PM makes first post-tariff moves

He said: “Statistics show that 87% of global trade does not involve US, so maybe you can look elsewhere for trade deals with countries who also feel they have been badly treated by tariffs. I would guess India would be at the top of that list.

“The question is how quickly can trade deals be struck, given the fact the UK has been casting the net around for the last five years without a huge amount of progress.”

Read more:
Everything you need to know about Trump’s tariffs

What China could do next as Trump’s tariff war ramps-up
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Mr Mould added that the recipe for economic growth in any market is the growth of the labour force coupled with productivity growth.

“In terms of productivity, [leaders] are probably looking at targeted tax breaks for investment and to stimulate research and development. Other positive things for long-term benefits include examining infrastructure and transport access,” Mr Mould said.

“In terms of encouraging labour participation, you are into the deep waters of whether it is education or tax breaks for child care. All of those are very long-term solutions to a potential near-term challenge.”

Listen to the full Sky News Daily episode here

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Nissan to cut 20,000 jobs globally, reports say

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Nissan to cut 20,000 jobs globally, reports say

Nissan is set to announce a leap in its cost-cutting plans that will see 20,000 jobs go globally, according to reports in Japan.

The carmaker, which employs around 6,000 workers at its sprawling manufacturing operations in Sunderland, had already let it be known last November that 9,000 roles would be going amid weak sales and rising costs.

But Japanese broadcaster NHK said on Monday it expected that total to more than double.

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Nissan, which was yet to comment on the claim, is due to reveal full year results covering the 12 months to March on Tuesday morning.

They are expected to show a net loss of up to £3.8bn due to a series of writedowns on the value of its operations.

They will be the first results Nissan has declared since the appointment of a new chief executive last month.

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Ivan Espinosa issued a “significant” downgrade to Nissan’s outlook just three weeks ago.

If the job cuts report is true, it would amount to a 15% reduction in the company’s worldwide workforce.

New models of the Nissan  Juke being assembled
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New models of the Nissan Juke being assembled at the Sunderland plant. Pic:PA

It is not known if the Sunderland production facilities form part of any planned job cuts or production reductions, of up to 20%, that were reported.

Nissan has, on several occasions since Brexit, called the plant’s future into question before proceeding with investment plans.

It has invested £2bn in Sunderland since 2023 alone.

The company secured UK government money this year for a new electric powertrain manufacturing facility in Sunderland.

But a senior Nissan executive, Alan Johnson, warned more aid was needed just last month, arguing that the UK was “not a competitive place” to build cars.

Nissan, like rivals, is facing challenges on many fronts.

Read more:
US-UK trade deal ‘isn’t worth the paper it’s written on’
Key details in ‘historic’ US-UK trade deal

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US trade tariffs of 25% on all car imports has exacerbated pressure on its supply chain and sales.

The latter has been struggling due to weaker-than-anticipated electric car uptake.

But the vast majority of its cars made in the UK will be subject to a tariff of just 10% after the UK-US trade deal agreed last week.

It does not currently send Sunderland-made cars to the United States. Most are for export to Europe and the domestic UK market.

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Trump hails ‘total reset’ with China as trade tariffs slashed

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Trump hails 'total reset' with China as trade tariffs slashed

The US and China have agreed to slash trade tariffs on each other, a move Donald Trump has said was part of a “total reset” in relations.

The president said the 90-day truce followed “very friendly” talks between the two sides in Switzerland over the weekend and those discussions would continue..

“China was being hurt very badly. They were closing up factories they were having a lot of unrest and they were very happy to do something with us”, he told reporters at the White House.

The breakthrough was announced early on Monday – to the delight of fincial markets – by the leader of the US delegation, treasury secretary Scott Bessent.

US trade representative Jamieson Greer confirmed so-called reciprocal tariffs were now at 10% each.

In real terms, it meant the US is reducing its 145% tariff to 30% on Chinese goods. A tariff of 20% had been implemented on China when President Donald Trump took office, over what his administration said was a failure to stop illegal drugs entering the US.

China has agreed to reduce its 125% retaliatory tariffs to 10% on US goods.

Sector-specific tariffs, such as the 25% tax on cars, aluminium and steel, remain in place.

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Tariffs, taxes on imports of more than 100%, had been imposed on both sides. China was the only country exempt from a 90-day pause on the “retaliatory” tariffs above the base 10% levies applied by America.

Major retailers had been warning Mr Trump of empty shelves as US importers pause shipments.

Mr Bessent said after a weekend of negotiations in Switzerland, the countries had a mechanism for continued talks.

It’s the second major trade announcement made by the US in the last week, after a deal was secured with the UK on Thursday.

The move signals a willingness from the Americans to make deals on tariffs.

Why Trump blinked in US-China trade war


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Ed Conway

Economics and data editor

@EdConwaySky

Of all the fronts in Donald Trump’s trade war, none was as dramatic and economically threatening as the sky-high tariffs he imposed on China.

There are a couple of reasons: first, because China is and was the single biggest importer of goods into the US and, second, because of the sheer height of the tariffs imposed by the White House in recent months.

In short, tariffs of over 100% were tantamount to a total embargo on goods coming from the United States’ main trading partner.

That would have had enormous economic implications, not just for the US but every other country around the world (these are the world’s biggest and second-biggest economies, after all).

So the truce announced on Monday by treasury secretary Scott Bessent is undoubtedly a very big deal indeed.

Read more from Ed Conway here

Welcomed news

The news was received positively by Asian stock markets on Monday as major indexes were up.

In China, the Shanghai Composite stock index rose 0.8%, the Shenzhen Component gained 1.7%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was up nearly 3%.

In countries across Asia, benchmark stock indexes also rose. Korea’s Kospi grew 1.1%, Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.8%, while India’s Nifty 50 index of most valuable companies gained more than 3%.

US stocks rose sharply at the open.

The S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq saw their biggest leaps in more than a month, rising almost 3% and 4% respectively.

The market rally was visible in Europe too.

The dollar – hit in recent weeks by US recession speculation – was up more than a cent versus the pound while oil prices also rallied. Brent crude, the international benchmark, was 3.5% higher at $66 a barrel.

What next?

When asked by journalists about what the US wanted to see from China in the 90s, Mr Bessent said, “As long as there is good faith effort, engagement and constructive dialogue, then we will keep moving forward.”

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Explained: The US-UK trade deal

The UK came to the front of the line for deals, Mr Bessent added, “as our oldest ally”.

Switzerland had also moved to the “front of the queue”, he said, while the EU has been slower.

As with the other counties subject to 90-day pauses, a permanent deal will need to be reached, but confidence across the world is likely to have been boosted.

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Businesses now need a clear timetable and roadmap for future negotiations under the newly announced economic and trade consultation mechanism, said Andrew Wilson, the deputy secretary general of the International Chamber of Commerce.

“The credibility of that process for resolving underlying frictions in the Sino-US economic relationship will be mission-critical in terms of restoring business confidence.”

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Monzo lines up bankers to spearhead blockbuster £6bn float

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Monzo lines up bankers to spearhead blockbuster £6bn float

Monzo, the digital bank which counts one in five British adults among its customers, is closing in on the appointment of investment bankers to spearhead a stock market listing valuing it at more than £6bn.

Sky News has learnt that Monzo is working with Morgan Stanley, the Wall Street giant, on a series of meetings with potential investors ahead of an initial public offering which could take place as early as the first half next year.

People close to the company said this weekend that bankers would be formally hired to work on the listing within months, with Morgan Stanley now expected to be handed a key role on the deal.

The timing, size and location of an IPO are still to be determined and will depend on market conditions in London and New York, both of which have been buffeted by Donald Trump’s introduction of swingeing trade tariffs.

However, London is currently seen as the most likely listing venue for Monzo by board members and investors, according to people close to the situation.

The company, which saw its valuation soar to £4.5bn last year after primary and secondary share sales, is considering a further sale of existing shares to allow early investors and employees to cash in, although a decision to proceed has not yet been taken.

Monzo has more than 11m UK retail customers, making it the seventh-largest British bank by customer numbers, and 600,000 business customers.

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Founded a decade ago, it has become one of Britain’s most successful, and valuable, fintech companies.

It employs close to 4,000 people.

Last year, it raised more than £500m by selling newly issued shares to a group of investors led by Capital G, a division of Alphabet-owned Google.

That primary share sale valued the business at £4.1bn.

An IPO, including any new capital raised, would be likely to value Monzo at more than £6bn, and potentially in the region of £7bn, according to banking sources.

Last year’s secondary share sale saw existing Monzo investors StepStone Group and GIC, the Singaporean sovereign wealth fund, buying stock from employees.

The company is now profitable and has diversified into investments and instant access savings accounts.

It has also launched pensions products and accounts aimed at under-16s.

Read more from Sky News:
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Monzo is among a new generation of banks which have emerged since the last financial crisis and begun to accumulate a significant share of the UK retail banking market.

Rivals include Starling Bank and Revolut, which was valued at $45bn in its last fundraising and was awarded a banking licence by British regulators last year after a protracted process.

Monzo has recovered spectacularly from a difficult period in 2020 when it emerged that the City watchdog was investigating it for potential breaches of anti-money laundering and financial crime rules.

It has revamped its corporate structure as it pursues an international expansion aimed at enticing new investors to its strategy for long-term growth.

The company has been exploring acquisition opportunities in the US and Europe, although a major deal is not thought to be imminent.

Monzo Bank Holding Group was established to avoid the company facing punitive capital treatment by British regulators as it launches in new overseas markets.

Other Monzo investors include the Chinese group Tencent, Passion Capital, Accel, General Catalyst and Hedosophia.

Monzo is run by TS Anil, its chief executive, and chaired by Gary Hoffman, the banker who salvaged Northern Rock after its nationalisation in 2008.

This weekend, a Monzo spokesperson declined to comment.

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