The oil-rich Gulf states are better-positioned to weather the tariff storm — but crashing crude prices could spell trouble
U.S. President Donald Trump with Mohammed bin Salman, crown prince of Saudi Arabia, at the start of the Group of 20 summit on 28 June 2019.
Bernd von Jutrczenka | picture alliance | Getty Images
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The wealthy Arab Gulf states are in a better position than many other regions of the world to manage the economic impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, economists and regional investors say. But a shaky outlook for the price of oil could put some countries’ budgets and spending projects at risk.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar make up the Gulf Cooperation Council. Together, they comprise around $3.2 trillion in sovereign financial assets, accounting for 33% of the total sovereign assets worldwide, according to GCC Secretary-General Jasem Mohamed Albudaiwi.
The GCC also holds approximately 32.6% of the world’s proven crude oil reserves, according to the Statistical Center of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf.
That makes it both an asset for the Trump administration as well as vulnerable to its policies, as Trump has long pushed for OPEC, the oil producer alliance led by Saudi Arabia, to pump more oil to help lower oil prices and offset inflation in the U.S.
A lower oil price, however, can significantly impact the budget deficits and spending plans for those countries, whose economies — despite diversification efforts — still rely heavily on hydrocarbon revenues.
Beneficial relations with Trump
Ben Powell, BlackRock’s chief investment strategist for Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, who is based in Abu Dhabi, said the region’s warm relations with Trump strengthens its hand when it comes to potential tariff negotiations. Some GCC countries have also expanded their role in global diplomacy. One example is Riyadh’s hosting of peace talks to end the Russia-Ukraine war, which has made it ever more important to Washington.
“I do think the Middle East, with the deep relationship with the U.S. that they have, should come out okay,” Powell told CNBC’s “Access Middle East” on Monday.
“I think we’re all going to be swept into the maelstrom over the next short period of time. That’s inevitable. But the Middle East, with the balance sheet strength that they have, with the energy support that they still have, providing funding on a near ongoing basis … for me, the Middle East — maybe not today, but over time — should be a relative winner within that mix” when it comes to emerging markets, Powell said.
In considering what the firsthand impact of tariffs might be, Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, noted that the U.S. is not a major export market for the Gulf.
“The GCC should be in a relatively favourable position to withstand headwinds, especially the UAE,” she wrote in a report for the bank on Friday.
While the region faces the blanket 10% universal tariff as well as previously imposed tariffs on all foreign steel and aluminum — products that the UAE and Bahrain both export — “we expect the direct impact to be relatively contained, as the US is not a key destination for Gulf exports, averaging just c.3.7% of the GCC’s total exports in 2024,” she said.
Threat to spending plans
But the oil price outlook is critical for Gulf states’ budgets and future spending plans — particularly for Saudi Arabia, which has embarked on trillions of dollars worth of ambitious mega-projects as part of Vision 2030, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s sweeping initiative to diversify the kingdom’s economy away from oil. The success of the plan, perhaps ironically, relies heavily on oil revenues.
Global benchmark Brent crude was trading at $61.44 per barrel on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. in London, down nearly 17% year-to-date. Additional pressure was put on the price after OPEC+, the oil producer alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, made a surprise decision to accelerate planned crude production hikes, further bolstering global supply.
Saudi Arabia needs oil at more than $90 a barrel to balance its budget, the International Monetary Fund estimates. Goldman Sachs this week lowered its oil price forecast for 2026 to $58 for Brent and $55 for U.S. benchmark WTI crude. That’s a significant move lower from its forecast just last Friday of $62 for Brent and $59 for WTI in 2026.
“A weaker global demand and greater supply adds downside risk to our Brent forecast for 2025, though we wait for more market clarity before making any changes,” ADCB’s Malik told CNBC on Monday. OPEC+ is meant to increase oil production levels again in May, and she predicts the group will pause that plan if crude prices stay where they are or fall further.
“Our greatest concern would be a sharp and sustained oil price fall, which would require a reassessment of spending plans – government and off budget – including capex, while also potentially affecting banking sector liquidity and wider confidence,” Malik warned.
Rivian (RIVN) is already preparing for changes under the Trump administration. In anticipation of Trump’s new auto tariffs, Rivian built a reserve of EV batteries from Asia as a countermeasure.
Rivian has a plan to overcome Trump’s tariffs
At this point, nearly every major automaker has acknowledged the damaging impact of tariffs on vehicle imports in the US.
GM, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, Stellantis, and Volvo all withdrew their financial guidance due to the uncertainty. Rivian wasted no time preparing for the changes.
According to a Bloomberg report on Wednesday, Rivian has been stockpiling lithium-iron phosphate (LFP) battery cells from Gotion High-Tech since last year. The battery cells are used in Rivian’s Commercial Van, initially used by Rivian and now open to other businesses.
Sources familiar with the matter said Rivian covered the upfront costs to stockpile inventory for later use. China’s Gotion paid for and built a separate reserve in the US.
The sources also said that Rivian is working with Samsung SDI to move a significant portion of its battery supply from Korea to the US. Battery cells from Samsung are used in Rivian’s R1S electric SUV and R1T pickup. All three vehicles are built at Rivian’s manufacturing plant in Normal, IL.
The move is to ensure Rivian has enough supply while minimizing potential higher prices and other complications from the tariffs.
As it prepares to launch its smaller, more affordable R2, sources said Rivian is looking to secure similar deals for batteries and raw materials in the future. Rivian has reportedly already signed its first agreement, but no other details were offered.
The upcoming R2 will use cells from LG Energy Solution. Although they will initially come from Korea, LG will produce the next-gen batteries in Arizona.
Electrek’s Take
Although Trump eased some of the impacts on imported vehicles on Wednesday, many tariffs remain in place and are already causing havoc in the industry.
Almost every major automaker has withdrawn earnings guidance due to the expected impacts. Like Rivian, others are taking countermeasures, including boosting US inventory in preparation. However, how long can this last?
Trump claims that the “Golden Age of America” is here, but it looks to be the complete opposite. The tariffs will only put the US further behind as China and others emerge as global leaders in tech.
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Tesla plans to deploy a public charging network for its Tesla Semi truck, starting with 46 stations in 2027, according to a new presentation.
At a new presentation at the ACT Expo this week, Tesla’s head of the Semi program, Dan Priestley, revealed several new details about the long-awaited electric semi-truck.
During the presentation, Priesley claimed that Tesla Semi trucks have already cumulatively traveled 7.9 million miles (12.7 million km).
He didn’t disclose how many trucks contributed to this total mileage, but he did add that “more than 26 Tesla Semi trucks” have each traveled over 100,000 miles.”
These numbers have been updated from a previous presentation in September 2024, when Priestley said the Tesla Semi fleet had traveled 7.5 million miles and that a single truck had traveled 250,000 miles (400,000 km) over the last 1.5 years.
Tesla also confirmed that the truck is going to be equipped with a 25 kW Power Take Off (PTO) at the back to power external systems, like a refrigerated trailer, for example (via Jake Guerra on LinkedIn):
Priestley also revealed a few more details about Tesla’s planned expansion of its charging network for the Tesla Semi.
The company currently operates the Supercharger network. It is the most extensive EV fast-charging network in North America, but it is geared toward passenger electric vehicles and not practical for bigger commercial vehicles, like Tesla Semi.
Tesla has already deployed Megachargers, its charging station for electric semi trucks, at its own installations and those of a few customer-partners who have been testing the Tesla Semi, but now it plans to deploy public charging stations to enable long-haul trucking with the electric truck.
Priestley said that Tesla is now aiming to deploy 46 Megacharging stations as part of its public charging network by early 2027.
It is not clear whether the locations on the map accurately represent the plans, but it appears likely based on previously reported Megacharger information.
The presentation follows an update released by Tesla this week about the Tesla Semi factory in Nevada.
The automaker aims to start volume production of the truck in 2026.
Tesla Semi was first supposed to enter production in 2019, but it has been significantly delayed as Tesla tried to deliver on the promise of range and capacity.
It appears that the automaker may be able to deliver on those, but at a significantly higher price than previously announced, as we recently reported.
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Pittsburgh International Airport (PIT), already the first airport in the US to be fully powered by a microgrid, is expanding its solar field with utility Duquesne Light Company (DLC) and solar owner and operator IMG Energy Solutions.
The new solar project will add more than 11,216 panels to the airport’s existing solar array, generating an additional 4.7 megawatts MW) of renewable energy. That’s enough to cut around 5 million pounds of carbon emissions annually. It’s DLC’s first-ever power purchase agreement, and clean energy will go to the regional grid to help power homes and businesses in Pittsburgh.
This expansion will sit on 12 acres of land that used to be a landfill, adjacent to Pittsburgh Airport’s eight-acre solar array, which hosts nearly 10,000 panels. This new and old infrastructure, just off the airport exit from I-376, supports the airport’s 23-MW solar and natural gas microgrid, launched in 2021.
Allegheny County executive Sara Innamorato called the project a “fantastic step” toward a more sustainable future for the region. PIT also has plans to make sustainable aviation fuel onsite.
DLC will use 100% of this project’s energy and Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) to support its default service customers.
“We’re maximizing the use of airport assets for the betterment of the region – from air service to real estate development to energy innovation,” said PIT CEO Christina Cassotis. “And there’s more to come.”
The new solar field is expected to come online by 2027. So if you’re flying into Pittsburgh in a couple of years, you might spot it from your window seat.
Read more: Solar adds more new capacity to the US grid in 2024 than any energy source in 20 years
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