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Chalk this one up to the bond vigilantes.

This is the term used periodically to describe investors who push back against what are perceived to be irresponsible fiscal or monetary policies by selling government bonds, in the process pushing up yields, or implied borrowing costs.

Most of the focus on markets in the wake of Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs on the rest of the world has, in the last week, been about the calamitous stock market reaction.

This was previously something that was assumed to have been taken seriously by Mr Trump.

During his first term in the White House, the president took the strength of US equities – in particular the S&P 500 – as being a barometer of the success, or otherwise, of his administration.

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks, as he signs executive orders and proclamations in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 9, 2025. REUTERS/Nathan Howard
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Donald Trump in the Oval Office today. Pic: Reuters

He had, over the last week, brushed off the sour equity market reaction to his tariffs as being akin to “medicine” that had to be taken to rectify what he perceived as harmful trade imbalances around the world.

But, as ever, it is the bond markets that have forced Mr Trump to blink – and, make no mistake, blink is what he has done.

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To begin with, following the imposition of his tariffs – which were justified by some cockamamie mathematics and a spurious equation complete with Greek characters – bond prices rose as equities sold off.

That was not unusual: big sell-offs in equities, such as those seen in 1987 and in 2008, tend to be accompanied by rallies in bonds.

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What it’s like on the New York stock exchange floor

However, this week has seen something altogether different, with equities continuing to crater and US government bonds following suit.

At the beginning of the week yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds, traditionally seen as the safest of safe haven investments, were at 4.00%.

By early yesterday, they had risen to 4.51%, a huge jump by the standards of most investors. This is important.

The 10-year yield helps determine the interest rate on a whole clutch of financial products important to ordinary Americans, including mortgages, car loans and credit card borrowing.

By pushing up the yield on such a security, the bond investors were doing their stuff. It is not over-egging things to say that this was something akin to what Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng experienced when the latter unveiled his mini-budget in October 2022.

And, as with the aftermath to that event, the violent reaction in bonds was caused by forced selling.

Sky graphic showing the US 30-year treasury yield

Now part of the selling appears to have been down to investors concluding, probably rightly, that Mr Trump’s tariffs would inject a big dose of inflation into the US economy – and inflation is the enemy of all bond investors.

Part of it appears to be due to the fact the US Treasury had on Tuesday suffered the weakest demand in nearly 18 months for $58bn worth of three-year bonds that it was trying to sell.

But in this particular case, the selling appears to have been primarily due to investors, chiefly hedge funds, unwinding what are known as ‘basis trades’ – in simple terms a strategy used to profit from the difference between a bond priced at, say, $100 and a futures contract for that same bond priced at, say, $105.

In ordinary circumstances, a hedge fund might buy the bond at $100 and sell the futures contract at $105 and make a profit when the two prices converge, in what is normally a relatively risk-free trade.

So risk-free, in fact, that hedge funds will ‘leverage’ – or borrow heavily – themselves to maximise potential returns.

The sudden and violent fall in US Treasuries this week reflected the fact that hedge funds were having to close those trades by selling Treasuries.

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Trump freezes tariffs at 10% – except China

Confronted by a potential hike in borrowing costs for millions of American homeowners, consumers and businesses, the White House has decided to rein back its tariffs, rightly so.

It was immediately rewarded by a spectacular rally in equity markets – the Nasdaq enjoyed its second-best-ever day, and its best since 2001, while the S&P 500 enjoyed its third-best session since World War Two – and by a rally in US Treasuries.

The influential Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs immediately trimmed its forecast of the probability of a US recession this year from 65% to 45%.

Sky graphic showing the Nasdaq composite across the past fortnight

Of course, Mr Trump will not admit he has blinked, claiming last night some investors had got “a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid”.

And it is perfectly possible that markets face more volatile days ahead: the spectre of Mr Trump’s tariffs being reinstated 90 days from now still looms and a full-blown trade war between the US and China is now raging.

But Mr Trump has blinked. The bond vigilantes have brought him to heel. This president, who by his aggressive use of emergency executive powers had appeared to be more powerful than any of his predecessors, will never seem quite so powerful again.

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Hundred investors force ECB onto sticky wicket over revised £975m deal

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Hundred investors force ECB onto sticky wicket over revised £975m deal

A £975m deal to transform the finances of English cricket risks facing further demands for revision over proposals including one allowing the sport’s governing body to cancel The Hundred tournament in seven years time.

Sky News has obtained a revised document sent this weekend by the England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) to prospective investors in the eight Hundred franchises – who include some of the world’s most powerful technology company executives.

The document outlines a series of changes to the ECB’s original proposals, in an attempt to persuade the competition’s new shareholders – who have collectively agreed to stump up £520m for their team stakes – to sign binding contracts within weeks.

In recent weeks, the ECB has come under pressure from many of the investors to revise proposals relating to media and sponsorship rights, future expansion of The Hundred, and governance of the tournament.

The sale of the ECB’s 49% stakes in the eight Hundred teams, including Trent Rockets and Oval Invincibles, was hailed as a landmark moment for the sport, paving the way for a vast injection of cash into English cricket at county and grassroots level.

However, one senior cricket insider cast doubt on the ECB’s timetable for signing binding agreements, scheduled for 29 April, amid continuing dissatisfaction from some stakeholders.

Another sticking point for the investors may be the inclusion of a clause that the ECB has the right to unilaterally terminate the Hundred competition after seven years.

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“What happens in year eight?”, said one on Sunday.

“These investors have agreed to pay hundreds of millions of pounds with no guarantee of terminal value.”

Among the new backers of The Hundred – which is broadcast by Sky Sports, which shares a parent company with Sky News – are the Chelsea FC co-owner Todd Boehly, the billionaire Indian Ambani family and a group of tech executives including the chief executives of Google and Microsoft.

According to the document, the existing Hundred committee will be scrapped by a new body, The Hundred Board (HB), on which the ECB would cede control and hold just a third of the overall voting rights.

The HB would consist of 20 members, with four from the ECB and two from each team – but with the ECB members each carrying double voting rights.

“The HB Agreement now protects teams from future changes, meaning [the] ECB can no longer unilaterally amend the decision-making and other powers of the HB.

“Instead, any variation to the HB Agreement will require approval from a majority of investor members of the HB, two-thirds of all members of the HB, and the ECB board,” the document said.

One of the ECB’s board members will become chair of the HB, according to the document, while the governing body will also appoint the Hundred’s managing director on a minimum five-year contract.

A source close to one of the new investors questioned that arrangement on Sunday, arguing that such an arrangement risked “embedding failure” in the event of unhappiness at the competition’s administration.

The document also sets out several matters, including UK media rights arrangements for the period after 2029, which would be subject to so-called “triple trigger voting” requiring an “affirmative vote from a majority of Investor Members of the HB, two-thirds of all members of the HB and the ECB board”.

Also included on the triple-trigger list are: changes to league expansion criteria; the distribution of league expansion proceeds to ECB and The Hundred stakeholders; Material increases in payments from The Hundred and its teams to hosts and the broader ECB county ecosystem; and changes to the HB Agreement, or changes to the Framework Agreement that materially adversely affect teams.

“For the 2029 [media rights] cycle, the default position is the UK media rights will be sold on a bundled basis, with a floor valuation of £51m per year for The Hundred,” the document said.

“For each subsequent cycle, the default shifts to an unbundled sale of rights between The Hundred and the ECB’s broader UK media right package.

“For the 2029 cycle, ECB will request that UK rights bidders provide an itemized pricing allocation for The Hundred and non-Hundred rights to provide transparency on value of The Hundred.”

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The ECB document said it would only permit expansion of The Hundred in 2029 or later, and that it could only admit teams which have a purpose-built permanent stadium that does not host another franchise.

A revenue formula to protect distribution to existing teams would also be established, while new teams would be required to demonstrate that “they unlock a new fan base and complementary ticket sales”.

According to the document, the ECB has “developed a revised set of termination events that protects the ECB and other teams in extreme scenarios, also providing further protection for teams for events outside of their control:

• ECB will not unilaterally terminate The Hundred for seven years

• The ECB Member Resolution termination event has been removed

• ECB has clarified that it will not terminate the competition based on a breach by one or a select few clubs

• Termination for force majeure has been extended to require disruption over two consecutive seasons of The Hundred

• ECB’s right to terminate for “financial reasons” has been clarified to only apply in scenarios where ECB is experiencing financial challenges due to cash losses generated by The Hundred.”

“In the unlikely event the ECB decides to end its involvement in The Hundred, the ECB is committed to providing teams with an opportunity to maintain the competition independently, including using reasonable endeavours to make players, venues and a suitable playing window available to the competition,” the document states.

The ECB said it would also commit to “not launch or sanction a competing professional league for a period of 4 years”.

The ECB has also revised a set of sponsorship and player appearance proposals as part of its revised agreement.

In an effort to ensure a swift resolution to the process, the ECB told investors that those who do not sign and complete their stake purchases simultaneously would forego their right to an additional dividend.

For all investors, the governing body would provide “a £1 liability cap on all Business Warranties (given on a knowledge qualified basis) and Tax Claims”.

“The ECB will provide fundamental warranties only and will provide no other indemnities or warranties.”

An ECB spokesman declined to comment on the document on Sunday, but pointed to comments made recently by Richard Gould, the governing body’s chief executive.

“We’re just trying to work out how to maximise value from sponsorships, tickets sales and broadcast revenues,” he said.

“They’re investing a lot of money into our game and we want to make sure that pays dividends.

“We’ve got brilliant supporters for our UK domestic market through Sky, but there are probably significant opportunities in the overseas broadcast market and that’s very much something that they’re focused on but there are differences in the markets.

“We need to make sure we’ve got something which is fit for purpose across the global markets, not just a UK market.”

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Starmer’s search for football watchdog chair goes into extra-time

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Starmer's search for football watchdog chair goes into extra-time

The appointment of the inaugural chair of English football’s new watchdog has been thrown into fresh uncertainty after Whitehall officials resumed contact with applicants who did not make it onto a final shortlist.

Sky News has learnt that the preferred candidate to chair the Independent Football Regulator (IFR) is now “unlikely” to be drawn from a group of three contenders interviewed months ago.

The search process has not been officially reopened, and insiders said the £130,000-a-year post was not expected to be readvertised.

They acknowledged, however, that a shortlist including former Aston Villa Football Club chief executive Christian Purslow would probably not produce the chosen candidate.

Sky News revealed in recent weeks that the other contenders were Sanjay Bhandari, who chairs the anti-racism football charity Kick It Out, and Professor Sir Ian Kennedy, who chaired the new parliamentary watchdog established after the MPs expenses scandal.

The delay to the appointment of the IFR’s inaugural chair will do little to dampen recent speculation that Sir Keir Starmer wants to pare back the powers of the football regulator amid a broader clampdown on Britain’s economic watchdogs.

Both 10 Downing Street and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) have sought to dismiss the speculation, with insiders insisting that the IFR will be established as originally envisaged.

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The establishment of the regulator, which will be based in Manchester, is among the principal elements of legislation progressing through parliament.

The Football Governance Bill has just completed its journey through the House of Lords and will be introduced in the Commons shortly, according to a DCMS spokesman.

The establishment of the regulator, which was conceived by the previous Conservative government in the wake of the furore over the failed European Super League project, has triggered deep unrest in English football.

Steve Parish, the chairman of Premier League side Crystal Palace, told a recent sports industry conference that the watchdog “wants to interfere in all of the things we don’t need them to interfere in and help with none of the things we actually need help with”.

“We have a problem that we’re constantly being told that we’re not a business and [that] we’re part of the fabric of communities,” he is reported to have said.

“At the same time, we’re… being treated to the nth degree like a business.”

Interviews for the chair of the football regulator took place in November, with a previous recruitment process curtailed by the calling of last year’s general election.

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Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary, will sign off on the appointment of a preferred candidate, with the chosen individual expected to face a pre-appointment hearing in front of the Commons culture, media and sport select committee.

It forms part of a process that represents the most fundamental shake-up in the oversight of English football in the game’s history.

The establishment of the body comes with the top tier of the professional game gripped by civil war, with Abu Dhabi-owned Manchester City at the centre of a number of legal cases over its financial dealings.

The government has dropped a previous stipulation that the regulator should have regard to British foreign and trade policy when determining the appropriateness of a new club owner.

“We do not comment on speculation,” the DCMS said when asked about the process to recruit a chair of the football watchdog.

“No appointment has been made and the recruitment process for [IFR] chair is ongoing.”

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MPs to debate emergency law to keep British Steel open as prime minister warns national security ‘on the line’

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MPs to debate emergency law to keep British Steel open as prime minister warns national security 'on the line'

MPs will today debate emergency laws to save British Steel after the prime minister warned the country’s “economic and national security is on the line”.

Sir Keir Starmer said the future of the company’s Scunthorpe plant – which employs about 3,500 people – “hangs in the balance” after its owner said the cost of running it was unsustainable.

The prime minister said legislation would be passed in one day to allow the government to “take control of the plant and preserve all viable options”.

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MPs and Lords are being summoned from their Easter recess to debate the move and will sit from 11am.

The last time parliament was recalled was on 18 August 2021 to debate the situation in Afghanistan.

The government has been considering nationalising British Steel after Jingye, the Chinese owner, cancelled future orders for iron ore, coal and other raw materials needed to keep the blast furnaces running.

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The furnaces are the last in the UK capable of making virgin steel.

Jingye last month rejected a £500m state rescue package – raising fresh doubts about the Lincolnshire plant and fears it could close in the coming days.

The steel from the plant is used in the rail network and the construction and automotive industries. Without it, Britain would be reliant on imports at a time of trade wars and geopolitical instability.

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Inside the UK’s last blast furnaces

In a statement on Friday, Sir Keir said: “I will always act in the national interest to protect British jobs and British workers.

“This afternoon, the future of British Steel hangs in the balance. Jobs, investment, growth, our economic and national security are all on the line.”

The prime minister said steel was “part of our national story, part of the pride and heritage of this nation” and “essential for our future”.

He said the emergency law would give the business secretary powers to do “everything possible to stop the closure of these blast furnaces”.

This includes the power to direct the company’s board and workforce. It will also ensure it can order the raw materials to keep the furnaces running and ensure staff are paid.

A general view shows British Steel's Scunthorpe plant.
Pic Reuters
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The Scunthorpe plant is the last in the UK that can make virgin steel. Pic: Reuters

One of the two blast furnaces at British Steel's Scunthorpe operation
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One of the two blast furnaces at Scunthorpe

Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the government was “taking action to save British steel production and protect British jobs”, while Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said the owner had left the government with “no choice”.

Mr Reynolds said Jingye had confirmed plans to close the Scunthorpe furnaces immediately despite months of talks and the offer of £500m of co-investment.

The company said it had invested £1.2bn since taking over in 2020, but that the plant is losing £700,000 a day.

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What will happen with British Steel?

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said the government had landed itself in a “steel crisis entirely of their own making”.

She said when she was business secretary, she had negotiated a plan with British Steel “to limit job losses and keep the plant running”.

Ms Badenoch said the government had “bungled the negotiations, insisting on a Scunthorpe-only deal that the company has deemed unviable”.

She added: “Keir Starmer should have seen this coming. But instead of addressing it earlier in the week when parliament was sitting, their incompetence has led to a last-minute recall of parliament.”

The Unite union said the prime minister’s recalling of parliament was “absolutely the right thing to do to begin the process of nationalisation”.

While the government hasn’t confirmed those plans, the chancellor also said earlier this week that “all options” are on the table.

Sky News understands accountancy firm EY is being lined up to play a role in a nationalisation process.

The government’s intervention over British Steel comes six months after the last blast furnace was closed at Port Talbot in Wales.

Plaid Cymru has questioned why the government didn’t take similar action there.

The party’s Westminster leader, Liz Saville Roberts, said: “Parliament is being recalled to debate the nationalisation of Scunthorpe steelworks.

“But when global market forces devastated Welsh livelihoods in Port Talbot, Labour dismissed Plaid Cymru’s calls for nationalisation as ‘pipe dreams’.”

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