Crypto markets ‘relatively orderly’ despite Trump tariff chaos: NYDIG
Crypto markets have been fairly stable amid wider market panic caused by US President Donald Trump’s “on-again, off-again” sweeping global tariffs, according to a New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG) analyst.
“Despite the carnage in traditional financial markets, the crypto markets have been relatively orderly,” NYDIG global head of research Greg Cipolaro said in an April 11 note. “Historically, in broad risk-off moves, we tend to see stresses show up in crypto markets. We have yet to see that.”
Cipolaro said crypto perpetual futures rates have “been persistently positive,” with liquidations spiking on April 6 and 7 in the days after Trump first announced the tariffs on April 2 but only to a total of $480 million, which he added “was well below other notable liquidation events.”
He noted that the price of Tether (USDT), a US dollar-tracking stablecoin widely used token in crypto trading, was below $1 but had “not experienced a sharp decline.”
Trump unveiled a sweeping tariff regime on April 2 that lumped various levies on every country before pausing them for 90 days just hours after they came into effect on April 9 and instead charging a base tariff of 10%, besides China, which currently has tariffs of up to 145%.
Traditional and crypto markets tanked after Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement, and many assets haven’t recovered to the same level as before their unveiling.
Stocks, bonds and foreign exchange volatility rates all rose after Trump’s tariffs announcement. Source: NYDIG
Over the weekend, the Trump administration caused more confusion with its tariffs, saying on April 13 that an April 11 decision to exempt many electronics from tariffs was temporary and they would still be hit with levies.
Bitcoin fares well, declining volatility to make it widely attractive
Cipolaro said that Bitcoin (BTC) didn’t escape the market volatility, “but at current prices has fared far better than many other asset classes.”
He added that Bitcoin’s volatility hasn’t risen to historic levels, unlike the traditional markets, and “has been relatively stable” despite instability instigated by the Trump administration.
“Perhaps investors are increasingly searching for stores of value not tied to sovereign countries and thus not affected by the trade turmoil.”
Bitcoin is down 22.5% from its mid-January peak of over $108,000 and has traded flat over the past 24 hours at $84,730, according to CoinGecko.
Cipolaro said the narrowing gap between Bitcoin’s volatility and other assets makes it “increasingly more appealing” to funds with risk parity portfolios — those that use risk to choose asset allocations.
He added that investors are likely reducing their risk exposure but “perhaps some reallocation of asset mix to Bitcoin is one of the reasons it has been more buoyant.”
Related: S&P 500 briefly sees ‘Bitcoin-level’ volatility amid Trump tariff war
“Risk parity funds allocating to Bitcoin can help dampen its volatility — making the asset more attractive and potentially reinforcing a virtuous cycle of increased adoption and stability,” Cipolaro said.
However, YouHodler chief of markets Ruslan Lienkha told Cointelegraph in an April 12 note that despite a wider market rebound, “technical indicators are painting a concerning picture.”
He said a “death cross,” when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, is potentially forming on Bitcoin and the S&P 500.
Lienkha said the pattern is “generally considered a bearish signal for the medium term, suggesting that markets may struggle to sustain upward momentum without a clear catalyst or a stream of positive macroeconomic developments.”
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Altcoins may see a resurgence in the second quarter of 2025 as regulations for digital assets continue to improve, according to Swiss bank Sygnum.
In its Q2 2025 investment outlook, Sygnum said the space has seen “drastically improved” regulations for crypto use cases, creating the foundations for a strong alt-sector rally for the second quarter. However, it added that “none of the positive developments have been priced in.”
In April, Bitcoin dominance reached a four-year high, signaling that crypto investors are rotating their funds into an asset perceived to be relatively safer.
But Sygnum believes regulatory developments in the US, such as President Donald Trump’s establishment of a Digital Asset Stockpile and advancing stablecoin regulations, could propel broader crypto adoption.
“We expect protocols successful in gaining user traction to outperform and Bitcoin’s dominance to decline,” Sygnum wrote.
Increased focus on economic value ignites competition
Sygnum also said that competition would increase as the market focuses on economic value. Increased competition in a market often results in better products, ultimately benefiting consumers:
“The market’s increased focus on economic value compels greater competition for user growth and revenues, with rising protocols such as Toncoin, Sui, Aptos, Sonic, or Berachain taking different approaches.”
Sygnum added that while high-performance blockchains address limitations of the Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana blockchains, these chains find it challenging to achieve meaningful adoption and fee income.
The report highlighted that some approaches have been more sustainable. These include Berachain’s approach of incentivizing validators to provide liquidity to decentralized finance (DeFi) applications, Sonic’s rewarding developers that attract and retain users, and Toncoin’s Telegram affiliation to access one billion users.
Aside from layer-1 chains, Sygnum highlighted that layer-2 networks like Base also have potential. The report pointed out that while the memecoin frenzy on the blockchain pushed its users and revenue to new highs, it made an equally sharp decline after memecoins started losing steam.
Despite this, Sygnum noted that Base remains the layer-2 leader in metrics like daily transactions, throughput and total value locked.
Related: Italy finance minister warns US stablecoins pose bigger threat than tariffs
Memecoins still a leading crypto narrative in Q1
Despite recent price declines, memecoins remained a dominant crypto narrative in Q1 2025. A CoinGecko report recently highlighted that memecoins remained dominant as a crypto narrative in the first quarter of 2025. The crypto data company said memecoins had 27.1% of global investor interest, second only to artificial intelligence tokens, which had 35.7%.
While retail investors are still busy with memecoins, institutions have a different approach. Asset manager Bitwise reported on April 14 that publicly traded firms are stacking up on Bitcoin. At least twelve public companies purchased Bitcoin for the first time in Q1 2025, pushing public firm holdings to $57 billion.
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It was perhaps not quite how officials, in London at least, had envisaged the announcement of the state visit would be made.
In the Oval Office, Donald Trump revealed the news in his own way.
“I was invited by the King and the great country. They are going to do a second fest – that’s what it is. It is beautiful,” he said during an impromptu Oval Office moment.
The question was, did this “fest” – which Mr Trump suggested could happen in September – amount to the much hyped second state visit for the American president?
Or was this actually just the smaller visit that had been offered two months ago as an initial bilateral visit at which the state visit would be discussed?
Back in February, Sir Keir Starmer presented the president with a letter from King Charles and the offer of a state visit.
The letter proposed an initial meeting between the King and the president to discuss details of the state visit at either Dumfries House or Balmoral, both in Scotland, close to Mr Trump’s golf clubs.
The King wrote: “Quite apart from this presenting an opportunity to discuss a wide range of issues of mutual interest, it would also offer a valuable chance to plan a historic second state visit to the United Kingdom… As you will know this is unprecedented by a US president. That is why I would find it helpful for us to be able to discuss, together, a range of options for location and programme content.”
As he revealed the news of his “fest” with his “friend Charles”, Mr Trump said: “I think they are setting a date for September…”
Sources have since confirmed to Sky News that it will amount to the full state visit.
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Sir Keir Starmer handed Trump the invite earlier this year. Pic: Reuters
‘Even more important’
It’s possible the initial less formal presidential trip may still happen between now and September. Mr Trump is in Europe for the NATO summit in June and is due in Scotland to open a new golf course soon too.
“It is the second time it has happened to one person. The reason is we have two separate terms, and it’s an honour to be a friend of King Charles and the family, William,” the president said.
“I don’t know how it can be bigger than the last one. The last one was incredible, but they say the next one will be even more important.”
His last state visit in 2019, at the invitation of the late Queen, drew significant protests epitomised by the giant blow-up “Baby Trump” which floated over Parliament Square.
The president was hosted by the Queen in June 2019. Pic: Reuters
Britain’s trump card
September is a little earlier than had been expected for the visit. It may be an advantage for it to happen sooner rather than later, given the profoundly consequential and controversial nature of the first few months of his second term.
The decision by the British government to play its “state visit trump card” up front back in February drew some criticism.
And since February, Mr Trump’s position on numerous issues has been increasingly at odds with all of America’s allies.
On Ukraine, he has seemingly aligned himself closely with Vladimir Putin. His tariffs have caused a global economic shock. And on issues like Greenland and Canada, a member of the Commonwealth, he has generated significant diplomatic shock.
A risk worth taking
Mr Trump is as divisive among the British public as he is in America. Sir Keir is already walking a political tightrope by choosing the softly softly approach with the White House.
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The UK government chose not to retaliate against Mr Trump’s tariffs, unlike some allies. Sir Keir and his cabinet have been at pains not to be seen to criticise the president in any way as they seek to influence him on Ukraine and seek an elusive economic deal on tariffs.
On that tariff deal, despite some positive language from the US side and offers on the table, there has yet to be a breakthrough. A continuing challenge is engaging with the president for decisions and agreements only he, not his cabinet, will make.
British officials acknowledge the risk the state visit poses. In this presidency, anything could happen between now and September.
But they argue British soft power and Mr Trump’s fondness for the Royal Family and pomp – or a “fest” as he calls it – amount to vital diplomatic clout.
For a special relationship under strain, a special state visit is the tonic.
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