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Ecuador has re-elected Daniel Noboa as president – a conservative millionaire with a controversial no-holds-barred approach to tackling gang crime.

Mr Noboa’s opponent, leftist lawyer Luisa Gonzalez, has vowed to seek a recount over what she described as “grotesque” electoral fraud.

Figures released by Ecuador’s National Electoral Council indicate Mr Noboa received 55.8% of the vote with more than 90% of ballots counted, while Ms Gonzalez earned 44%.

The vote was monitored by international observers from the European Union and the Organization of American States, but neither had released their official reports at the time of writing.

Diana Atamaint, president of the council, said on national television that those results showed an “irreversible trend” in favour of Mr Noboa.

The win gives the 37-year-old president four years to fulfil promises he first made in 2023 – when he won a snap election and secured a 16-month presidency despite having limited political experience.

Daniel Noboa addresses supporters after early returns showed him in the lead in the presidential election run-off. Pic: AP
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Daniel Noboa addresses supporters after early returns showed him in the lead in the presidential election run-off. Pic: AP

More than 13 million people were eligible to vote in the South American country, where voting is mandatory.

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Ms Gonzalez’s defeat marks the third consecutive time that the party of Rafael Correa, the country’s most influential president this century, failed to return to the presidency.

She told supporters her campaign “does not recognise the results presented by the “(National Electoral Council),” arguing, among other issues, that pre-election polls showed her ahead of Mr Noboa.

Daniel Noboa addresses the media as the electoral council says he has won the presidential election, in Santa Elena, Ecuador.
Pic: Reuters
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Daniel Noboa addresses the media in Santa Elena, Ecuador, as the electoral council says he has won the election.
Pic: Reuters

Ecuadorean presidential candidate Luisa Gonzalez addresses supporters during the presidential election in Quito, Ecuador.
Pic: Reuters
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Luisa Gonzalez addresses supporters during the presidential election in Quito, Ecuador.
Pic: Reuters

Mr Noboa, heir to a fortune built on the banana trade, is expected to continue applying some of his heavy-handed crimefighting strategies that part of the electorate finds appealing but which have tested the limits of laws and norms of governing.

Ecuador faces a challenge because of the involvement on its soil of two of Mexico’s most notorious and powerful drugs cartels – Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation.

The cartels realised that Ecuador – which is not a cocaine producing country – had excellent ports with speedy routes north by sea to Central and North America.

Mr Noboa declared Ecuador to be in a state of “internal armed conflict” in January 2024, allowing him to deploy thousands of soldiers to the streets to combat gangs and charge people with terrorism counts for alleged ties to organised crime groups.

In the weeks that followed, Ecuador’s security forces carried out raid after raid, rounding up people they claimed were linked to drug gangs.

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From February 2024: Ecuador’s cartel crackdown

The country’s prisons filled up with new inmates, and some prisons, notorious for their lack of discipline and control, were taken over by the military, completely changing the dynamic inside and the freedom of the gang leaders to continue their business activities while locked up.

However, during the crackdown there have also been reports of human rights violations, with the security forces having carried out extrajudicial killings and arbitrary arrests, according to Human Rights Watch.

A supporter of Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa reacts as the electoral council says Noboa has won the presidential election, in Quito, Ecuador.
Pic: Reuters
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A supporter of Mr Noboa carries his cardboard cut-out as she celebrates his victory. Pic: Reuters

Supporters of Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa celebrate as the electoral council says Noboa has won the presidential election, in Quito, Ecuador.
Pic: Reuters
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Supporters of Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa celebrate in Quito, Ecuador. Pic: Reuters

Under Mr Noboa’s watch, the homicide rate dropped from 46.18 per 100,000 people in 2023, to 38.76 per 100,000 people in 2024.

But despite the decrease, the rate remained far higher than the 6.85 homicides per 100,000 people seen in 2019.

Ecuadorian voters were primarily worried about the violence that has transformed the country, starting in 2021.

Both candidates promised tough-on-crime policies, better equipment for law enforcement and international help to fight drug cartels and local criminal groups.

The candidates had advanced to Sunday’s contest after getting the most votes in February’s first-round election.

Mr Noboa led Ms Gonzalez by around 17,000 votes.

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Overnight attacks in Russia and Ukraine as Zelenskyy eyes talks with Trump over peace plan

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Overnight attacks in Russia and Ukraine as Zelenskyy eyes talks with Trump over peace plan

Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy are set to hold talks over the Ukraine peace plan.

US and Ukrainian officials have held discussions in Geneva about a controversial 28-point proposal drawn up by America and Russia, which has since been countered by an amended deal drawn up by Kyiv’s European allies.

The White House said there were still a “couple of points of disagreement” as of Monday night, but spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said there was a “sense of urgency” to strike an agreement.

“The president wants to see this deal come together, and to see this war end,” she added.

Mr Zelenskyy echoed that message, saying “there is still work for all of us to do to finalise the document”.

“We must do everything with dignity,” he said in his nightly video address, adding: “The sensitive issues, the most delicate points, I will discuss with President Trump.”

Karoline Leavitt speaks with reporters at the White House. Pic: AP
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Karoline Leavitt speaks with reporters at the White House. Pic: AP

It comes after Mr Trump, who had accused Ukraine of not being grateful enough for US military support while the Geneva talks were under way, suggested the process could be moving in the right direction.

He had earlier given Kyiv until Thursday to agree to the plan, but US Secretary of State Marco Rubio downplayed the deadline, saying officials could keep negotiating.

Moscow, however, has already signalled its opposition to the European version of the peace plan.

It would halt fighting at present front lines, leaving discussions of territory for later, and also include a NATO-style US security guarantee for Ukraine.

Read more:
Trump’s 28-point peace plan in full…
…and Europe’s 28-point counterproposal

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Russian drones devastate Kharkiv

The talks in Geneva, Switzerland, had begun with Mr Rubio denying the original plan was written by Russia.

It appeared to include a number of longstanding Kremlin demands that have proved impossible for Kyiv, including sacrificing territory Russian forces have not even seized since the war began.

Ms Leavitt has also insisted the US is not favouring the Russians.

Ukrainian troops fire near the frontline town of Pokrovsk. Pic: Reuters
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Ukrainian troops fire near the frontline town of Pokrovsk. Pic: Reuters

Starmer to lead talks of Ukraine’s allies

Ukraine’s allies in the so-called “coalition of the willing” will hold a virtual meeting today, chaired by Sir Keir Starmer.

The British prime minister said the alliance was focused on achieving a “just and lasting peace”.

It “matters for all of us, because the conflict in Ukraine has had a direct impact here in the UK”, he added.

Russia and Ukraine report overnight attacks

The talks will begin hours after the governor of Russia’s Rostov region reported three people had been killed and 10 more injured in a Ukrainian attack overnight.

The Russian defence ministry said 249 Ukrainian drones were downed over Russian regions in total.

Meanwhile, Russian drone strikes in Kyiv left at least two dead and triggered fires on residential buildings – forcing evacuations, and leaving several people injured.

Drone strikes rocked Kyiv in the early hours of Tuesday. Pic: Ukrainian emergency services/Telegram
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Drone strikes rocked Kyiv in the early hours of Tuesday. Pic: Ukrainian emergency services/Telegram

The war was also a topic of discussion in a call between Mr Trump and China’s Xi Jinping on Monday.

Mr Xi urged “all parties” in the conflict to “reduce differences”, according to Chinese state news agency Xinhua.

He reiterated that China supported all efforts conducive to peace.

China has remained a consistent ally of Russia throughout its invasion of Ukraine, and is the top buyer of Russian oil, along with India.

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Return to China ‘not an option’, Taiwan warns – as Xi mentions issue in phone call with Trump

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Return to China 'not an option', Taiwan warns - as Xi mentions issue in phone call with Trump

Taiwan’s prime minister has warned that a “return” to China is not an option.

Cho Jung-tai’s remarks came hours after President Xi Jinping mentioned the issue on a phone call with his US counterpart Donald Trump.

Mr Xi had described Taiwan’s return to mainland China as “an integral part of the post-war international order”.

But the island’s democratically elected government has rejected this – describing Taiwan as a “fully sovereign and independent country”.

“For the 23 million people of our nation, ‘return’ is not an option – this is very clear,” Mr Cho added.

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Is Taiwan ready for a Chinese invasion?

China has offered Taiwan a “one country, two systems” model, but this position is not supported by any mainstream political party.

Meanwhile, relations between Beijing and Tokyo recently plunged to fresh lows after Japan’s prime minister suggested any attack on Taiwan would spark a military response.

Sanae Takaichi’s remarks were swiftly denounced by China’s foreign ministry, which said Japan had “crossed a red line that should not have been touched”.

Sun Yun from the Stimson Centre thinktank said: “My best guess is China is worried about the escalation with Japan.

“The reference to Taiwan and the post-World War II order directly points to the spat with Japan over Taiwan.”

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Trump scores Xi meeting out of 10

The US has not taken a side when it comes to Taiwan’s sovereignty but is opposed to any use of force to seize the territory.

Mr Trump’s administration has also been ambiguous over whether it would deploy US troops if war broke out in the Taiwan Strait.

Yesterday, Taiwan’s defence ministry spotted a single balloon from China flying over the strait and claims this is part of a campaign of harassment by Beijing.

Chinese officials have previously dismissed these complaints, arguing the balloons are for meteorological purposes.

In other developments, Mr Trump has confirmed that he will visit Beijing in April – with Mr Xi set to travel to Washington for a state visit later in 2026.

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What did Xi and Trump’s meeting tell us?

Relations have improved in recent weeks after the pair met face to face in South Korea, with the US president moving to cut tariffs.

On Truth Social, he wrote: “Our relationship with China is extremely strong!”

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US hails ‘tremendous progress’ on Ukraine peace plan – but says negotiators ‘need more time’

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US hails 'tremendous progress' on Ukraine peace plan - but says negotiators 'need more time'

The US secretary of state has hailed a “tremendous amount of progress” on peace talks after the US and Ukraine delegations met in Geneva – but said that negotiators would “need more time”.

Marco Rubio said the meetings in Switzerland on Sunday have been “the most productive and meaningful” of the peace process so far.

He said the US was making “some changes” to the peace plan, seemingly based on Ukrainian suggestions, “in the hopes of further narrowing the differences and getting closer to something that both Ukraine and obviously the United States are very comfortable with”.

Mr Rubio struck an optimistic tone talking to the media after discussions but was light on the details, saying there was still work to be done.

US secretary of state Marco Rubio in Geneva after peace talks with Ukraine. Pic: Reuters
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US secretary of state Marco Rubio in Geneva after peace talks with Ukraine. Pic: Reuters

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Analysis: Rubio strikes an optimistic tone – but is light on detail

“I don’t want to declare victory or finality here. There’s still some work to be done, but we are much further ahead today at this time than we were when we began this morning and where we were a week ago for certain,” Mr Rubio said.

He also stressed: “We just need more time than what we have today. I honestly believe we’ll get there.”

Sky News’ defence analyst Michael Clarke said on the initial US-Russian 28-point peace plan that it was Donald Trump against the world, with maybe only Moscow on his side.

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Is Trump’s plan a ‘capitulation document’?

Mr Rubio praised the Ukrainian attitude towards the talks and said Mr Trump was “quite pleased” after he previously said in a social media post that Ukraine’s leaders had expressed “ZERO GRATITUDE” for US efforts.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly address on Sunday that there are signs that “President Trump’s team hears us”.

In a news release on Sunday evening, the White House said the day “marked a significant step forward”.

“Ukrainian representatives stated that, based on the revisions and clarifications presented today, they believe the current draft reflects their national interests and provides credible and enforceable mechanisms to safeguard Ukraine’s security in both the near and long term,” it claimed.

Despite diplomatic progress in Geneva the finish line remains a long way off


John Sparks

John Sparks

International correspondent

@sparkomat

We’ve witnessed a day of determined and decidedly frantic diplomacy in this well-heeled city.

Camera crews were perched on street corners and long convoys of black vehicles swept down Geneva’s throughfares as the Ukrainians worked hard to keep the Americans on side.

Secretary of state Marco Rubio did not want to go into details at a press “gaggle” held at the US Mission this evening, but he seemed to think they had made more progress in the last 96 hours than the previous 10 months combined.

The Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy also seemed satisfied enough, posting on Telegram that there were “signals President Trump’s team is hearing us” after a day of “numerous meetings and negotiations”.

That said, we are a long way from the finish line here – something Rubio acknowledged when he said that any proposal agreed here would have to be handed over to the Russians.

At that point, negotiations to stop the war would surely get tougher.

President Putin has shown little or no inclination to stop the conflict thus far.

This, then, is the most important reason the Ukrainians seem determined to keep the Americans on side.

European leaders have presented a counter proposal to the widely criticised US-Russian peace plan, with suggestions including a cap on Ukraine’s peacetime army and readmitting Moscow into the G8.

This will only take place if the plan is agreed to by the US, Russia and Ukraine, and the G7 signs off on the move. Russia was expelled after annexing Crimea in 2014.

The counter proposal also includes US guarantees to Ukraine that mirror NATO’s Article 5 – the idea that “an armed attack against one NATO member shall be considered an attack against them all”.

The initial peace plan was worked up by the White House and Kremlin without Ukraine’s involvement, and it acquiesces to many of Russia’s previous demands.

Read more:
Who actually wrote US-Russian peace plan for Ukraine?
In full: Europe’s 28-point counter proposal to US-Russia plan

It covers a range of issues – from territorial concessions to reconstruction programmes, the future Ukrainian relationship with NATO and the EU, and educational reforms in both Ukraine and Russia.

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