Tesla (TSLA) has to replace computer in ~4 million cars or compensate their owners
Tesla (TSLA) has to replace the ‘self-driving’ computer inside about 4 million vehicles or likely compensate the owners of those vehicles.
The liability could be more significant than the largest automotive recall in terms of cost.
In 2016, Tesla claimed that all its vehicles in production going forward have “all the hardware necessary for full self-driving capability.”
Tesla’s use of the term “full self-driving” has changed over the years, but at the time and for years later, CEO Elon Musk claimed that it would mean Tesla owners would eventually receive a software update that would turn their vehicles into “robotaxis” capable of level-4-5 self-driving, which means unsupervised autonomous driving even with no one in the cars.
Almost 10 years later, this has yet to happen and won’t happen soon in most of the cars Tesla has delivered over the last decade.
Tesla’s claim that its vehicles have “all the hardware necessary for full self-driving capability” quickly proved untrue.
At the time, Tesla was producing its vehicles with cameras, a front-facing radar, ultrasonic sensors, and a “self-driving” computer, called HW2.5.”
Tesla quickly started building new vehicles with a new “HW3 self-driving computer” and admitted that its HW2.5 computer was not powerful enough to achieve self-driving capability.
The automaker started retrofitting existing HW2.5 vehicles for free with new HW3 computers owned by drivers who bought Tesla’s ‘Full Self-Driving’ (FSD) software package.
In 2023-2024, Tesla transitioned to another new and more powerful “self-driving computer”, HW4, in its new vehicles.
Unlike when it transitioned from HW2.5 to HW3, this time, Tesla claimed it would still be able to deliver its robotaxi self-driving capability to HW3 vehicles.
Musk even claimed that FSD will get better on HW3 first, as Tesla’s “focus needs to be on getting FSD on HW3 working super well and provided internationally”. He went as far as claiming that FSD performance on “HW4 will lag at least 6 months behind HW3” because of this.
That didn’t last long.
In 2024, we started to report that Tesla was reaching the limits of the HW3 computer, while the capabilities were nowhere near the promised unsupervised robotaxi-level autonomous driving.
It took another 6 months, but in January 2025, Musk finally admitted that HW3 computers are not powerful enough to achieve unsupervised self-driving capability.
There are about 4 million Tesla vehicles in the world with HW3 computers:
| Hardware Version | Production Timeframe | Estimated Vehicles Produced (Global) | Rollout & Overlap |
|---|---|---|---|
| HW3 (FSD Computer) | Apr 2019 – Late 2023 (phased out) | ~4 million (approx.) | Standard in all models from 2019–2022; remained in some cars through 2023. Overlap with HW4 during 2023. |
| HW4 (FSD Computer) | Jan 2023 – Present (ongoing) | ~2.5–3 million (approx.) | Introduced Jan 2023 (S/X first); became standard across all models by early 2024. Overlapped with HW3 in 2023. |
When admitting the computer won’t support the promised self-driving capabilities, Musk said that Tesla would retrofit the computers of all HW3 car owners who purchased the FSD package:
I mean, I think the honest answer is that we’re going to have to upgrade people’s Hardware 3 computer for those that have bought full self-driving, and that is the honest answer and that’s going to be painful and difficult but we’ll get it done. Now I’m kind of glad that not that many people bought the FSD package.
Musk says that replacing all the computers will be “painful,” and he is “glad” that “not that many people bought the FSD package.”
Tesla never disclosed the official take rate of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) package, but it did disclose having 400,000 FSD beta testers in North America by the end of 2022.
The take-rate is believed to be much lower globally due to the limited value in other markets where Tesla offers fewer ADAS features under the FSD package.
Globally, it’s safe to assume at least another 100,000 HW3 vehicles with the FSD package, which should bring Tesla’s retrofit requirement to over half a million units.
Musk is right to say that replacing the computers in over 500,000 Tesla vehicles will be “painful.” It will strain its service capacity tremendously, on top of the cost, which will easily surpass $500 million.
But that might just be the beginning.
Tesla promised self-driving hardware in all cars
Musk and Tesla not only made promises to those who bought the FSD package, but they promised anyone buying Tesla vehicles since 2016 had “all the hardware necessary for full self-driving capability.”
As we previously reported, Tesla removed the claim from its website last year and changed the language around the FSD package, which was likely aimed at weakening claims for Tesla HW4 owners, but the case for HW3 owners is more straightforward.
In 2019, Musk claimed “Tesla vehicles are now appreciating assets” because of their future self-driving capabilities. Of course, this proved to be completely wrong.
But there’s one thing that’s true about the value of Tesla vehicles: they would be worth more if they had computers capable of supporting self-driving, which Musk just admitted is not the case. That’s regardless of whether they bought the FSD package or not.
Therefore, there’s a strong argument to be made that Tesla needs to replace computers in all HW3 cars or at the very least, compensate the owners for falsely claiming that the vehicles had “all the hardware necessary for self-driving.”
In fact, there’s already legal precedent for this.
In 2022, a judge ordered Tesla to upgrade a customer’s self-driving computer for free so that they can subscribe to Tesla’s Full Self-Driving program without any additional cost. It created a precedent for Tesla owners who don’t purchase the FSD package.
Based on Tesla’s statement that “all cars produced since 2016 have the hardware necessary for full self-driving capability,” the owners of those vehicles need to have all the hardware necessary to have access to these features.
It’s a clear case of false advertising. Tesla says, “Your car has all the hardware necessary for full self-driving,” and when an owner wants to try the features, Tesla tells them, “You have to pay $1,000 for us to upgrade your hardware.” Something doesn’t add up.
Electrek’s Take
I would be surprised if Tesla does as Musk claimed and replaces HW3 computers in any car, let alone over half a million cars, or as it should be, about 4 million vehicles.
It’s too complicated and costly. It would add hundreds of thousands of work hours to Tesla’s already ultra-busy service operations, and it may not even work.
After being wrong about HW2.5 and HW3, the level of confidence in Tesla achieving unsupervised self-driving on HW4 vehicles is not really high, despite HW4 vehicles not only having more powerful computers but also better cameras.
I don’t think it’s realistic to believe that Tesla will enable level 4 or 5 self-driving capabilities in what are, in some cases, almost 10-year-old vehicles through a computer retrofit.
My 2018 Model 3 Performance was originally a HW 2.5 vehicle, and I purchased the FSD package. Tesla upgraded my computer to HW3 in 2019. We are now in 2025, and Musk finally admitted that the computer I bought 6 years ago won’t enable the self-driving capacity I was promised.
My car will never be self-driving, and I don’t believe Tesla will ever offer a free computer upgrade.
I think Tesla will have to compensate every Tesla HW3 owner worldwide. That would mean about 4 million vehicles and a liability of several billion dollars.
At first, instead of the computer retrofit, I think Tesla will use this as an opportunity to encourage people to upgrade, like it did with the “FSD transfer windows.” Maybe it will offer buybacks at a higher rate to compensate owners.
As for those who didn’t buy the FSD package, I don’t think Tesla will offer anything based on Musk’s messaging. It will have to go through the courts.
There are already several lawsuits filed against Tesla over its self-driving claims, and that was before Musk’s admission that HW3 won’t support unsupervised self-driving. I believe that those lawsuits will ramp up this year.
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Turning cheap daytime solar into electricity you can actually use at night just got a lot cheaper. A new analysis from energy think tank Ember shows that utility-scale battery storage costs have fallen to $65 per megawatt-hour (MWh) as of October 2025 in markets outside China and the US. At that level, pairing solar with batteries to deliver power when it’s needed is now economically viable.
Battery storage costs have fallen dramatically over the past two years, and the decline continues. Following a steep decline in 2024, Ember’s analysis indicates that prices continued to fall sharply again in 2025.
The findings are based on real-world data from recent battery and solar-plus-storage auctions in Italy, Saudi Arabia, and India, as well as interviews with active developers across global markets.
According to Ember, the cost of a whole, grid-connected utility-scale battery storage system for long-duration projects (four hours or more) is now about $125 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) as of October 2025. That figure applies to projects outside China and the US. Core battery equipment delivered from China costs around $75/kWh, while installation and grid connection typically add another $50/kWh.
Those lower upfront costs have pushed down the levelized cost of storage (LCOS) to just $65/MWh. Ember’s calculation reflects real-world assumptions around financing costs, system lifetime, efficiency, and battery degradation.
Cheaper hardware isn’t the only reason storage costs are falling. Longer battery lifetimes, higher efficiencies, and lower financing costs, helped by clearer revenue models such as auctions, have all contributed to the sharp drop in LCOS. Ember has published a live calculator alongside the report, allowing users to estimate LCOS using their own assumptions.
Why this matters comes down to how solar is actually used. Most solar power is generated during the day, so only a portion needs to be stored to make it dispatchable. Ember estimates that if half of daytime solar generation is shifted to nighttime, the $65/MWh storage cost adds about $33/MWh to the cost of solar electricity.
With the global average price of solar at $43/MWh in 2024, adding storage would bring the total cost to about $76/MWh, delivering power in a way that better matches real demand.
As Ember global electricity analyst Kostantsa Rangelova put it, after a 40% drop in battery equipment costs in 2024, the industry is now on track for another major fall in 2025. The economics of battery storage, she said, are “unrecognizable,” and the industry is still adjusting to this new reality.
“Solar is no longer just cheap daytime electricity; now it’s anytime dispatchable electricity. This is a game-changer for countries with fast-growing demand and strong solar resources,” Rangelova added.
Together, solar and battery storage are increasingly emerging as a scalable, secure, and affordable foundation for future power systems.
Read more: EIA: Solar + storage soar as fossil fuels stall through September 2025
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In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss a very telling Tesla Optimus fail, Rivian’s AI/Autonomy day, Mercedes GLB EV, and more.
The show is live every Friday at 4 p.m. ET on Electrek’s YouTube channel.
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Nissan is reviving the Xterra, the rugged SUV that once attracted a cult-like following, but this time it will be “electrified.”
The Nissan Xterra will be electrified, but by how much?
Earlier this year, Nissan offered a sneak peek of its upcoming lineup in a shadowy image previewing several new vehicles.
Alongside the new 2026 LEAF, a plug-in hybrid Rogue, updated Pathfinder, and Sentra, Nissan teased a new electric “adventure-focused SUV,” which we later learned will be badged the Xterra.
The rugged electric SUV appeared to have a more upright, boxy stance than the original model. The previous Xterra attracted a cult-like following as a cheaper off-road alternative to the Toyota 4Runner, Ford Bronco, and Jeep Wrangler.
However, Nissan discontinued it after the 2015 model year as buyers opted for more efficient options like the Honda CR-V and Toyota RAV4.
The new Xterra, but this time “it will have to have electrification,” according to Nissan Americas chief planning officer, Ponz Pandikuthira.
Pandikuthira told MotorTrend that the next-gen Xterra “cannot be ICE only,” but just how electrified it will be remains up in the air. “Is that an EREV? Is that a parallel hybrid system? Is that a plug-in system? That’s not defined yet. That’s all being actively studied right now,” he explained.
Nissan plans to launch a series of new extended-range hybrid (EREV) vehicles based on its e-Power system. The e-Power system uses a gas-powered engine connected to a generator.
The generator feeds energy to the inverter, which charges the battery and electric motor. Since the ICE only charges the battery and does not drive the wheels, it benefits from the instant torque and smooth drive of an EV.
However, it’s still powered by a gas engine at the end of the day. The 2027 Nissan Rogue will be the first e-Power vehicle in the US.
The Xterra could also arrive as a plug-in hybrid (PHEV) similar to the 2026 Nissan Rogue. The 2026 Rogue will be Nissan’s first PHEV for the US and is expected to be a key part of its comeback plans.
It will go on sale in early 2026 with an EPA-estimated 36 miles of electric driving range. Combined with the gas engine, the hybrid powertrain provides up to 420 miles of EPA-estimated driving range.
The electrified Xterra will share a body-on-frame platform with the Pathfinder and Frontier, with a V-6 engine, all-wheel drive (AWD), and space for bigger batteries.
According to Pandikuthira, the V-6 will give it an edge over the competition, while the hybrid powertrain will improve efficiency.
The “electrified” Xterra will be built at Nissan’s Canton, Mississippi, plant, starting in 2028. The following year, a luxury Infiniti electric SUV, based on the Vision QXe concept, will join it.
Electrek’s Take
While Nissan is launching new PHEVs, hybrids, and EREVs, it has already pulled one electric SUV, the Ariya, from its US lineup.
For now, the only fully electric vehicle Nissan offers in the US is the 2026 LEAF. Although it was once viewed as a leader in the shift to EVs with the initial LEAF launching in 2010, Nissan has quickly fallen behind and is now scrambling to catch up.
Nissan hopes to plug the gap with a series of gas-power hybrids over the next few years until new all-electric vehicles begin rolling out in 2028.
Even with less efficient hybrid tech, Nissan is still late to the game and will need to keep pace with Toyota, Honda, Ford, Stellantis, and others betting on hybrids in the US.
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