U.S.’ inability to replace rare earths supply from China poses a threat to its defense, warns CSIS
Workers transporting soil containing rare earth elements for export at a port in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, China, Oct. 31, 2010.
Stringer | Reuters
As China imposes export controls on rare earth elements, the U.S. would be unable to fill a potential shortfall, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies — and this could threaten Washington’s military capabilities.
Amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s escalating tariffs on China, Beijing earlier this month imposed export restrictions on seven rare earth elements and magnets used in defense, energy and automotive technologies.
The new restrictions — which encompass the medium and heavy rare earth elements samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium — will require Chinese companies to secure special licenses to export the resources.
Though it remains to be seen exactly how China will implement this policy, the CSIS report, published Monday, warns that it will likely result in a pause in exports as Beijing establishes the licensing system, and cause disruptions in supply to some U.S. firms.
The New York Times reported earlier this week that a pause in China’s rare earth element exports was already occurring.
As China effectively holds a monopoly over the supply of global heavy rare earths processing, such restrictions pose a serious threat to the U.S., particularly its defense technology sector.
“The United States is particularly vulnerable for these supply chains,” CSIS warned, emphasizing that rare earths are crucial for a range of advanced defense technologies and are used in types of fighter jets, submarines, missiles, radar systems and drones.
Along with the export controls, Beijing has placed 16 U.S. entities — all but one in the defense and aerospace industries — on its export control list. Placement on the list prevents companies from receiving “dual-use goods,” including the aforementioned rare earth elements.
Not ready to fill gap
According to CSIS’s report, if China’s trade controls result in a complete shutdown of the medium and heavy rare earth element exports, the U.S. will be incapable of filling the gap.
“There is no heavy rare earths separation happening in the United States at present,” CSIS said, though it noted the development of these capabilities is underway.
For example, the Department of Defense set a goal to develop a complete rare earth element supply chain that can meet all U.S. defense needs by 2027 in its 2024 National Defense Industrial Strategy.
Since 2020, the DOD has committed over $439 million toward building domestic supply chains and heavy rare earths processing facilities, according to data collected by CSIS.
However, CSIS said that by the time these facilities are operational, their output will fall well short of China’s, with the U.S. still far from meeting the DOD’s goal of an independent rare earth element supply.
“Developing mining and processing capabilities requires a long-term effort, meaning the United States will be on the back foot for the foreseeable future,” it added.
U.S. President Trump has also been seeking a deal with Ukraine, which would give it access to its deposits of rare earth minerals. However, questions remain about the value and accessibility of such deposits.
Implications
The CSIS report warns that the export controls pose direct threats to U.S. military readiness, highlighting that the country is already lagging behind in its defense manufacturing.
“Even before the latest restrictions, the U.S. defense industrial base struggled with limited capacity and lacked the ability to scale up production to meet defense technology demands,” its authors said.
They cite an estimate that China is acquiring advanced weapons systems and equipment five to six times faster than the U.S., originating from a U.S. Air Force official in 2022.
“Further bans on critical minerals inputs will only widen the gap, enabling China to strengthen its military capabilities more quickly than the United States,” the report concludes.
The U.S. is not alone in its concerns about China’s monopoly on rare earths, with countries like Australia and Brazil also investing in strengthening domestic rare earth elements supply chains.
CSIS recommends that the U.S. provide financial and diplomatic support to ensure the success of these initiatives.
However, China’s new export licensing system for the rare earths could also incentivize countries across the world to cooperate with China to prevent disruptions to their own supply of the elements, CSIS said.
A research report from Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, on Monday also noted how controls on rare earths and critical minerals have become part of Beijing’s playbook in pushing back against Washington.
Shearing notes that in addition to China’s hold on some rare earths, the supply of many other critical minerals, including cobalt and palladium, is concentrated in countries that align with Beijing.
“The weaponising of this control over critical minerals — and the race by other countries to secure alternative supplies — will be a central feature of a fractured global economy,” he said.
Technology
As nations build ‘sovereign AI,’ open-source models and cloud computing can help, experts say
Digital illustration of a glowing world map with “AI” text across multiple continents, representing the global presence and integration of artificial intelligence.
Fotograzia | Moment | Getty Images
As artificial intelligence becomes more democratized, it is important for emerging economies to build their own “sovereign AI,” panelists told CNBC’s East Tech West conference in Bangkok, Thailand, on Friday.
In general, sovereign AI refers to a nation’s ability to control its own AI technologies, data and related infrastructure, ensuring strategic autonomy while meeting its unique priorities and security needs.
However, this sovereignty has been lacking, according to panelist Kasima Tharnpipitchai, head of AI strategy at SCB 10X, the technology investment arm of Thailand-based SCBX Group. He noted that many of the world’s most prominent large language models, operated by companies such as Anthropic and OpenAI, are based on the English language.
“The way you think, the way you interact with the world, the way you are when you speak another language can be very different,” Tharnpipitchai said.
It is, therefore, important for countries to take ownership of their AI systems, developing technology for specific languages, cultures, and countries, rather than just translating over English-based models.
Panelists agreed that the digitally savvy ASEAN region, with a total population of nearly 700 million people, is particularly well positioned to build its sovereign AI. People under the age of 35 make up around 61% of the population, and about 125,000 new users gain access to the internet daily.
Given this context, Jeff Johnson, managing director of ASEAN at Amazon Web Services, said, “I think it’s really important, and we’re really focused on how we can really democratize access to cloud and AI.”
Open-source models
According to panelists, one key way that countries can build up their sovereign AI environments is through the use of open-source AI models.
“There is plenty of amazing talent here in Southeast Asia and in Thailand, especially. To have that captured in a way that isn’t publicly accessible or ecosystem developing would feel like a shame,” said SCB 10X’s Tharnpipitchai.
Doing open-source is a way to create a “collective energy” to help Thailand better compete in AI and push sovereignty in a way that is beneficial for the entire country, he added.
Open-source generally refers to software in which the source code is made freely available, allowing anyone to view, modify and redistribute it. LLM players, such as China’s DeepSeek and Meta’s Llama, advertise their models as open-source, albeit with some restrictions.
The emergence of more open-source models offers companies and governments more options compared to relying on a few closed models, according to Cecily Ng, vice president and general manager of ASEAN & Greater China at software vendor Databricks.
AI experts have previously told CNBC that open-source AI has helped China boost AI adoption, better develop its AI ecosystem and compete with the U.S.
Access to computing
Prem Pavan, vice president and general manager of Southeast Asia and Korea at Red Hat, said that the localization of AI had been focused on language until recently. Having sovereign access to AI models powered by local hardware and computing is more important today, he added.
Panelists said that for emerging countries like Thailand, AI localization can be offered by cloud computing companies with domestic operations. These include global hyperscalers such as AWS, Microsoft Azure and Tencent Cloud, and sovereign players like AIS Cloud and True IDC.
“We’re here in Thailand and across Southeast Asia to support all industries, all businesses of all shapes and sizes, from the smallest startup to the largest enterprise,” said AWS’s Johnson.
He added that the economic model of the company’s cloud services makes it easy to “pay for what you use,” thus lowering the barriers to entry and making it very easy to build models and applications.
In April, the U.N. Trade and Development Agency said in a report that AI was projected to reach $4.8 trillion in market value by 2033. However, it warned that the technology’s benefits remain highly concentrated, with nations at risk of lagging behind.
Among UNCTAD’s recommendations to the international community for driving inclusive growth was shared AI infrastructure, the use of open-source AI models and initiatives to share AI knowledge and resources.
Technology
Amazon CEO Jassy says AI will lead to ‘fewer people doing some of the jobs’ that get automated
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said the rapid rollout of generative artificial intelligence means the company will one day require fewer employees to do some of the work that computers can handle.
“Like with every technical transformation, there will be fewer people doing some of the jobs that the technology actually starts to automate,” Jassy told CNBC’s Jim Cramer in an interview on Monday. “But there’s going to be other jobs.”
Even as AI eliminates the need for some roles, Amazon will continue to hire more employees in AI, robotics and elsewhere, Jassy said.
Earlier this month, Jassy admitted that he expects the company’s workforce to decline in the next few years as Amazon embraces generative AI and AI-powered software agents. He told staffers in a memo that it will be “hard to know exactly where this nets out over time” but that the corporate workforce will shrink as Amazon wrings more efficiencies out of the technology.
It’s a message that’s making its way across the tech sector. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff last week claimed AI is doing 30% to 50% of the work at his software vendor. Other companies such as Shopify and Microsoft have urged employees to adopt the technology in their daily work. The CEO of Klarna said in May that the online lender has managed to shrink its headcount by about 40%, in part due to investments in AI and natural attrition in its workforce.
Jassy said on Monday that AI will free employees from “rote work” and “make all our jobs more interesting,” while enabling staffers to invent better services more quickly than before.
Amazon and other tech companies have also been shrinking their workforces through rolling layoffs over the past several years. Amazon has cut more than 27,000 jobs since the start of 2022, and it’s announced smaller, more targeted layoffs in its retail and devices units in recent months.
Amazon shares are flat so far this year, underperforming the Nasdaq, which has gained 5.5%. The stock is about 10% below its record reached in February, while fellow megacaps Meta, Microsoft and Nvidia are all trading at or very near record highs.
WATCH: Jassy says robots that will eventually do delivery and transportation
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