How little old Vanderbilt is making noise in the big, bad SEC
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Chris Low
NASHVILLE — It’s a memory that flashed through Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea’s mind more than once when the program was in the throes of a 26-game SEC losing streak in 2022, his second season as coach.
The memory presented itself again a year ago as Lea guided Vanderbilt to its first winning season since 2013, its first-ever win over a No. 1 team and a bowl victory over Georgia Tech, all culminating with Lea being named SEC Coach of the Year by his peers.
“I remember watching [assistant coach] Robbie Caldwell and my other coaches line the practice field and mow the grass when I played here,” said Lea, a fullback on head coach Bobby Johnson’s first teams at Vanderbilt from 2002-04. “They did everything.”
Contrast that to the scene last October after the Commodores’ signature win of the season, a 40-35 victory over top-ranked Alabama. Following Vanderbilt’s first win over the Crimson Tide in 40 years, fans ripped down the goalposts, paraded them through Nashville and dumped them into the Cumberland River.
The surreality of it all was matched by the resolve of Lea and his players, and their insistence that, in the words of quarterback Diego Pavia, “the rest of the world might have been shocked, but we weren’t.”
“We’re in a business of messaging, and a lot of what I remember as a player is the disconnect from the university and the athletic department and the team, and especially the lack of resources,” Lea said.
It’s a situation Lea inherited when he returned to his alma mater as coach in December 2020 in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic, as did his boss, Candice Storey Lee, when she was hired a year earlier as the SEC’s first Black female athletic director.
Together, they’re trying to change the narrative and not operate, as Lee jokes, like the little engine that could.
“It was the idea that we were going to unhook from the past and take steps that build toward the future that we all believe we’re capable of here,” said Lee, who has three degrees from Vanderbilt and was on campus the same time as Lea as a captain on the 2002 women’s basketball team that won the SEC tournament.
“Sometimes perception does not match reality, but the reality is that there was a narrative that Vanderbilt was not going to do the things that were necessary to experience consistent success. So from the very beginning, we had to set out to show that we were serious about wanting to compete and compete at the highest level, and we are still doing that. That process isn’t complete.”
Lea’s breakthrough 2024 season in his fourth year back on West End sent perhaps the clearest signal yet that the process is yielding results — and not just in football.
For the first time, Vanderbilt’s football team, men’s and women’s basketball teams and baseball team have all been nationally ranked during the same academic year.
But no climb has been steeper than the one faced by the football program, which was plummeting toward rock bottom when Lea arrived and only got worse during his second season, when the Commodores’ SEC losing streak reached 26 games. Lea wasn’t around for all those losses, but the walls were nonetheless closing in even when the Commodores salvaged a 5-7 record.
Then came 2023, when Vanderbilt dipped to 2-10 (0-8 in the SEC), and the heat ratcheted up on Lea. The Commodores lost all eight of their SEC games by two touchdowns or more.
“Hey, there were days where I was face down on the floor here, and it’s just, ‘Get yourself up, dust yourself off and trust in your resilience to do the next right thing the right way,'” Lea said. “For me, once I kind of realized that I may get my ass kicked a few times, nothing was going to knock me off from leading this program day in, day out, and making the changes that unlock the potential for success.”
Lea wasn’t the only one catching heat from the fans, media and some boosters. So was his former classmate Lee, who hired him. Making matters worse for Lee was that the men’s basketball team was struggling under Jerry Stackhouse and went 4-14 in SEC play during the 2023-24 season. Lee fired Stackhouse after the season and replaced him with Mark Byington, who took a team picked to finish last in the SEC to the NCAA tournament.
“One of the things that I know from going through knee replacement surgery recently is that healing and building is not a linear process,” Lee said. “Some days, it’s really good, and then something happens and I wake up and my knee is swollen. I don’t really understand what happened, but you still have to push forward and know there is something beautiful on the other side.
“You just wish it was easy, but it’s not.”
VANDERBILT’S CAMPUS, A short walk to the heart of downtown Nashville, one of America’s fastest growing cities, is dotted with signs that read “Dare to Grow.” Construction sites, cranes and hard hats are everywhere. Right outside Lea’s office window in the McGugin Center, the transformation of FirstBank Stadium continues with the South End Zone project, featuring premium seating and other amenities. It’s part of the Vandy United $300 million campaign, announced in 2021, to rebuild the school’s athletics facilities.
“We reached that $300 million goal pretty quickly, and we didn’t stop,” Lee said. “We have aspirations beyond that number, so we’re going to keep dreaming. We’re going to keep raising the money, we’re going to keep investing.”
The reality is that Vanderbilt can’t stop if it’s going to have any chance to compete with the football juggernauts in the SEC, especially in the current NIL world. But Lee is insistent that Vanderbilt is “beautifully positioned to maximize whatever model is in front of us” when the House settlement is approved and revenue sharing is in place. The current proposal allows for athletic departments to directly pay athletes with a pool up to $20.5 million in Year 1.
On the facilities front, even with the long overdue facelift to the stadium, the McGugin Center is noticeably outdated with a weight room, team meeting room and offices that pale in comparison to those at other SEC schools. Lea is hopeful a new football operations building comes sooner rather than later but said he doesn’t need a complex loaded with bells and whistles.
Lea looks at the new Huber Center, Vanderbilt’s four-story, state-of-the-art basketball practice facility, and sees what’s possible.
“It’s less important to me and for this program to have things like DJ booths and whatever else,” Lea said. “But I want people to walk into our building and recognize that football is really important here.
“What we’ve done really well here is that our people are the best, and if we can combine that with competitive spaces that also optimize our efficiency, we’re on our way to being where we need to be.”
Some of the people Lea, 43, is talking about are hires that were made primarily during last offseason, when he overhauled just about everything that touched his program. In the last year-plus, he has brought in veteran football people such as senior offensive adviser Jerry Kill, senior defensive analyst Bob Shoop, offensive coordinator Tim Beck and head strength coach Robert Stiner, among others. Kill and Beck are both former head coaches. Stiner and Lea worked together for three seasons at Notre Dame, and Shoop is a former Broyles Award finalist with more than 35 years of coaching experience. He was defensive coordinator under James Franklin for Vanderbilt teams that won nine games in 2012 and 2013.
Offensive line coach Chris Klenakis, entering his second season at Vanderbilt, has seen 24 of his former linemen reach the NFL over a 30-plus year career. He’s also been an offensive coordinator and worked with Colin Kaepernick at Nevada and Lamar Jackson at Louisville.
Lea hasn’t been hesitant to evolve, either. He took over the duties as defensive playcaller last season after the Commodores finished 129th nationally in scoring defense (36.2 points per game) and 131st in total defense (454.9 yards per game) in 2023. Lea said former NFL safety and assistant coach Steve Gregory, in his second season at Vanderbilt, will call defensive plays in 2025.
“I think it’s the best coaching staff in the country,” Pavia said. “Guys are going to want to come here because they see what these coaches get out of players. They see how they develop you. I know what Coach Kill did for me in bringing me here and what that opened up for me.”
PAVIA, WHO EMERGED as one of the most electric players in the country last season after transferring from New Mexico State, played as big a role as anyone in Vanderbilt’s revival. He was the only quarterback in the SEC to pass for more than 2,200 yards and rush for more than 800, accounting for 28 touchdowns, and inside the locker room, he was the heartbeat of a team that reveled in doing what people said couldn’t be done at “little old Vandy.”
Last year’s 7-6 season easily could have been a nine-win campaign. Four of the Commodores’ six losses were by a touchdown or less, including a 30-27 double overtime defeat at Missouri and a 27-24 home loss to Texas in which the Longhorns had to recover an onside kick to seal the game.
And the best part for the Commodores? They return many of the key players from last season, which saw Vanderbilt reach five wins before the end of October, only to lose three of its last four games in the regular season when Pavia wasn’t completely healthy.
“We had one guy transfer out that played for us last year,” said senior linebacker Langston Patterson, who was Lea’s first verbal commitment and went to high school in Nashville at Christ Christian Academy. “It’s about culture. The reason some of those past Vandy teams didn’t sustain success is because they had some great players, but no culture. We have great players on top of great culture, and that creates a great team. But you still have to go do it. Coach Lea touches on it all the time. We’re as close to 2-10 as we are 10-2. We’ve got to keep pushing forward.
“Really, to us, last year was mediocre. We fell apart the last three games. Everyone else thinks we had a great year, but to us, we could have been so much better.”
Lea’s idea of culture transcends the football field. He said the program has had six straight semesters with a collective 3.0 GPA or better in the classroom.
“That’s not because we’re recruiting valedictorians,” Lea said. “It’s because we’re recruiting guys that care about how they’re developing as people too, and they allow us to put boundaries in place for them to reach their highest level.”
As Vanderbilt tries to build on its momentum from a year ago, one thing is certain. The Commodores won’t sneak up on anybody, not after wins over Alabama and Auburn and narrow misses against LSU, Missouri and Texas.
“Nothing changes with us,” Pavia said. “We came here to win games. Coach Lea said it, that we want to have the best program in the SEC. For a lot of guys on this team, it’s our last chance, sort of our last dance, to really flip this program.”
Vanderbilt’s success a year ago came largely thanks to a ball-control offense, shortening the game, winning the turnover battle, stopping the run (especially on early downs) and playing lights-out on special teams.
Even with the recent upgrade in player personnel, it’s always going to be difficult for Vanderbilt to “out-Alabama” Alabama and “out-Georgia” Georgia in terms of sheer talent and depth.
“I know Coach Lea doesn’t believe that we can be like every other SEC team philosophically and find ways to break through to the top,” said offensive coordinator Beck, who also has been a defensive coordinator and spent the first 32 years of his coaching career at Division II powerhouse Pittsburg State. “You have to be a little bit different, and we were a little bit unique. I’m not one of these young offensive coordinators that’s just trying to score as many points as we can every game.
“You try to find ways to reduce the margins a little bit, so you’ve got to play complementary football. We still want to be fun and exciting, which I feel like we are, but we’re not going to be in a huge hurry. We led the nation in forced turnovers last year, which was huge for us because the matchups that we had player to player are still not there yet. We’ve got to be smart about what we do on both sides of the ball.”
Vanderbilt beat Auburn 17-7 last season despite finishing with just 227 total yards. But the Commodores pinned the Tigers inside their own 5-yard line twice, started two of their drives in Auburn territory, committed just three penalties and didn’t turn the ball over once.
“They manage the game as well as anybody,” Auburn coach Hugh Freeze said. “They’re smart. They play to their strengths, and they don’t give you anything.”
As stunning as Vanderbilt’s win over Alabama was to the college football world, Tide coach Kalen DeBoer wasn’t surprised by what he saw this season from Lea and the way he reinvigorated the program.
“I’ve known Clark going back to when he was at South Dakota State, and it wasn’t like we were close friends or anything, but I followed the success he’s had as a coordinator and knew that he was really good,” said DeBoer, who started his coaching career at Sioux Falls. “I felt like watching the film before our game that you could see the defense and the team philosophy revolving around making the game as short as possible, and he did a good job in the critical moments of making some calls.
“I knew going in that they were a different team than what they had been in the past. There was no doubt, and I think everyone who played them would tell you the same thing.”
Now comes the hard part for Lea and Vanderbilt: Doing it all over again.
The only time in the past 50 years that Vanderbilt has put together back-to-back winning seasons was in 2012 and 2013 under Franklin.
Lea, who grew up in Nashville, knows the doubters persist and that history suggests sustaining football success at Vanderbilt is more fantasy than reality. Down deep, he’s energized by that doubt.
“I think we as a program, me in particular, can’t help but operate with a chip on your shoulder, and you can’t help but bathe in the doubt that surrounds you,” Lea said. “We love that, and we don’t recruit beyond that, meaning I don’t want people here that are entitled. I don’t want people here that don’t see the work that has to be done.”
Pavia’s take is a bit more on the coarse side, in typical Pavia fashion.
“I mean, [Lea] comes from ground zero,” Pavia said. “A lot of people weren’t believing in him, people wanting him fired a year ago, and now all of a sudden, he’s the biggest star in Nashville. I think that still fuels him, that people gave up on him, didn’t believe in him on his journey or believe in us.
“So it’s like, ‘F— you. Watch us do it.'”
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Bill Connelly
Week 1 had headliners for the casuals. Week 2 had rivalry games and loads of thrillers for the hardcores. In Week 3, we attempt to split the difference. This week gives us high-stakes helmet games (Texas A&M-Notre Dame, Georgia-Tennessee, Florida-LSU) and rivalry games both bitter (Pitt-West Virginia) and, sometimes, silly (Ole Miss-Arkansas). But most of all, it gives us PANIC.
Notre Dame is 0-1 and won’t have a ton of quality win opportunities to overcome a potential 0-2 start. Clemson and Georgia haven’t looked the part yet and could be severely punished if they don’t shift into gear. Supposed Big 12 favorites Arizona State and Kansas State are a combined 2-3 and can’t wait much longer to turn into the teams they were supposed to be. And both Florida and Virginia Tech played their coaches onto incredibly hot seats with jarring second-half collapses last week. So many fan bases are either fuming or about to be.
The first two weeks were fun in different ways. Now it’s time to get anxious. Here’s everything you need to follow in Week 3.
All times are Eastern, and all games are Saturday unless otherwise noted.
Jump to a panic tier:
Hot seat | Time to look good
CFP hopefuls | Rivalries | Facing an upstart
More:
Week 3 playlist | Small school showcase
Hot seat panic
Between Nov. 16 and last Saturday, Florida went 5-0, beating LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State in successive weeks, allowing just 10.4 points per game and, presumably, playing head coach Billy Napier off of the hot seat.
Then the Gators lost to USF. They settled for field goals early and gave up just enough big plays (and horrid penalties) late to lose 18-16. It happened the way a lot of upsets happen, and USF might turn out to be an awesome team. But Florida now faces an absurd run featuring trips to No. 3 LSU, No. 5 Miami and No. 16 Texas A&M, plus a visit from No. 7 Texas, in the next month. Napier went from reasonably safe to all but done in a heartbeat.
He’s not alone, at least. Starting the season against South Carolina and Vanderbilt, Brent Pry’s Virginia Tech got outscored by a combined 48-3 in two horrendous second halves. The Hokies have plummeted to 74th in SP+. Unlike Florida, they have a rebound opportunity with home games against Old Dominion and Wofford, but ODU has been awfully interesting to start the season.
First things first: If LSU had played USF instead of Louisiana Tech last week, the Tigers could have been in trouble too. The LSU offense no-showed, averaging just 4.9 yards per play, and with the run game struggling (as it did for much of 2024), quarterback Garrett Nussmeier made some shaky decisions, taking three sacks with a pick and averaging a dire 4.8 yards per dropback. If Florida responds well to an angry week in Gainesville, don’t be surprised if we get an upset.
Until we see Florida’s response, however, nothing else matters. Quarterback DJ Lagway is still kicking off rust after an injury-plagued offseason and is averaging just 9.7 yards per completion; the Florida run defense could very well dominate, but it’s the pass defense that matters against LSU, and the Gators rank just 91st in yards allowed per dropback. After games against Long Island and USF, that’s pretty foreboding, no matter how iffy Nussmeier looked last week.
Current line: LSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: LSU by 2.8 | FPI projection: LSU by 3.0
I don’t pretend to be a body language expert, but when Vanderbilt scored to start the second half against Virginia Tech last week, the Hokies’ offense had just about the worst body language I’ve ever seen heading out onto the field. It was bad enough that I actually noticed it and made a mental note, and it happened about right here on the game’s win probability chart.
The Hokies offense didn’t score another point, and the Hokies defense didn’t make another stop. Tech will probably get back on track this week, but Old Dominion landed some solid punches early against Indiana in Week 1 and has overachieved against SP+ projections by a combined 46.4 points in its first two games. ODU quarterback Colton Joseph is making big plays with his arm and legs, and if the Monarchs can go up early, things could get very, very awkward at Lane Stadium.
Current line: Hokies -7.5 | SP+ projection: Hokies by 7.0 | FPI projection: Hokies by 3.8
‘It’s time to look like you were supposed to look’ panic
Georgia and South Carolina are unbeaten, and Clemson has only lost to the No. 3 team in the country. Arizona State suffered a heartbreaking loss to Mississippi State last week but could obviously still win the Big 12. All four of these teams were in the preseason top 15, and three still are. If they start looking like the teams they were supposed to be, they’ll all have good seasons with solid playoff chances.
If they don’t turn it on this week, however, things will get very complicated. They’ve combined to underachieve against SP+ projections by an average of 10.4 points per game. Georgia has barely made any big plays, Clemson’s offense has been shockingly inefficient, and South Carolina is 112th in points per drive and has been bailed out by punt returns and defensive touchdowns. Arizona State hasn’t been able to throw or defend the pass. On Saturday, all four teams play opponents that could absolutely beat them if they don’t find their respective A-games.
Georgia sleepwalked through a 28-6 win over Austin Peay last week on a disjointed, stormy afternoon in Athens. The Bulldogs had more turnovers (two) than 20-yard gains (one), and while APSU looks like an awfully strong FCS team, this was still one of Georgia’s most flawed performances in quite a while.
Does that matter? Georgia basically treats the season like an NFL regular season, knowing it’s talented enough to avoid any real missteps and aiming to peak in December. If the Dawgs flip the switch and roll over Tennessee, it won’t surprise a single soul in Neyland Stadium. They’ve won eight straight in the series, after all, and have won in their past four trips to Knoxville by an average of 41-10. But it’s hard to have much confidence in a Georgia offense that showed next to no explosiveness against Marshall and APSU.
And it’s not as if the offense hasn’t tried. Gunner Stockton has thrown seven passes at least 20 yards downfield, but he has completed just one. Granted, he has completed 76% of all his other passes, and Georgia has been pretty efficient. But the big-play spigot needs to open pretty quickly.
New Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar has overseen plenty of big plays to date, going 39-for-59 for 535 yards, five TDs, no interceptions and no sacks. He has benefited from a strong run game, however, and he might not be able to lean on that Saturday: Georgia has allowed just 2.2 yards per carry (not including sacks), with linebackers Gabe Harris Jr. and Raylen Wilson flying to the ball. Tennessee could find itself behind schedule pretty frequently, and like Stockton, Aguilar will face his biggest test of the season by far.
Current line: Dawgs -7 | SP+ projection: Vols by 1.3 | FPI projection: Vols by 0.3
We’re working with tiny samples, but the difference between preseason expectations and early-season quarterback production has been dramatic: The top five QBs on the preseason Heisman odds lists are currently 35th (Garrett Nussmeier), 56th (Arch Manning), 77th (Drew Allar), 82nd (LaNorris Sellers) and 104th (Cade Klubnik) in Total QBR.
For younger players like Manning and Sellers, a slow start might make sense. But Klubnik was supposed to be the high-floor veteran who allowed Clemson to benefit from everyone else’s inexperience. With unproven running backs and an already banged up O-line, however, he has been a shadow of his 2024 self.
After games against one of the best (LSU) and worst (Troy) defenses on the schedule, Klubnik’s stats are down across the board. He’s getting blitzed constantly, he’s providing no threat with his legs, and Clemson’s passing success rate has plummeted from 37th to 105th. Either that changes now, or Clemson’s 2025 goals start to fall apart. A loss Saturday would almost clinch that the Tigers have to win out to reach the College Football Playoff.
Georgia Tech is 2-0, with a defense that has overachieved twice against SP+ projections and an offense that was nearly perfect last week against Gardner-Webb despite forever-injured quarterback Haynes King sitting out. King should be good (enough) to go Saturday, and though the Clemson defense could disrupt the Tech line of scrimmage, the Yellow Jackets still might score enough to win if Clemson’s offense doesn’t start looking like it was supposed to look.
Current line: Clemson -9.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 0.6 | FPI projection: Tech by 1.3
First things first: If Vicari Swain wants to make a Heisman push by doing stuff like this all season, I’m game.
1:05
House call! Vicari Swain scores on 65-yard punt return
House call! Vicari Swain scores on 65-yard punt return
Swain has scored on three of five punt returns in 2025, and it has created a strange balance: Including a fumble return score, South Carolina’s defense and special teams have scored as many touchdowns (four) as its offense. The Gamecocks rank 108th in offensive success rate, and LaNorris Sellers is taking even more sacks (12.0% of dropbacks) with less deep-ball payoff.
Vanderbilt has, without question, been the better of these two teams thus far. The Commodores beat Virginia Tech by 24 in Blacksburg (compared to South Carolina’s 13-point, punt return-aided win on a neutral field), and they rank ninth in yards per dropback (10.2) and sixth in yards allowed per dropback (3.1). The Commodores scored more TDs in the second half against Virginia Tech (five) than the Gamecock offense has managed in four halves.
We don’t draw permanent conclusions after two games, but either South Carolina’s offense establishes a rhythm Saturday or the Gamecocks begin a very humbling stretch. They’re already projected underdogs in four of their next six games. Lose this one as a favorite, and you can probably kiss playoff hopes goodbye.
Current line: SC -5.5 | SP+ projection: SC by 9.5 | FPI projection: SC by 4.0
Last year, Arizona State survived a number of early close calls, then looked spectacular late. But the god of close games is fickle, and the Sun Devils dropped a thriller in Starkville last week.
They could obviously still reach the CFP by winning the Big 12, but with games against Baylor, TCU, Utah and Texas Tech on the horizon, they must start looking the part, and on Saturday night, they face an explosive Texas State team that nearly took them down last year. Bobcats backs Lincoln Pare and Jaylen Jenkins are averaging 8.1 yards per carry, and receivers Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. are averaging 20.8 yards per catch.
ASU should run the ball well against a shaky Texas State defensive front, but Sam Leavitt — currently 92nd in Total QBR with a 57% completion rate, three INTs and four sacks — has somehow become even more reliant on one-man receiving corps Jordyn Tyson, and the ASU secondary ranks 85th in yards allowed per dropback. ASU nearly overcame a terrible start in Starkville, but if TXST’s offense gets rolling early like Mississippi State’s did, it might never slow down.
Current line: ASU -14.5 | SP+ projection: ASU by 11.1 | FPI projection: ASU by 8.3
‘Probably don’t want to lose if you have CFP hopes’ panic
We can’t call many Week 3 games true must-wins in the CFP era, but Notre Dame is 0-1, Alabama has already laid one egg, and preseason Big 12 contender Kansas State is 1-2 and in danger of going 0-2 in conference play. If these three games aren’t must-win, they’re made of a pretty must-win-like substance.
Notre Dame gave us a pretty conflicting impression in Week 1’s narrow loss at Miami. Quarterback CJ Carr was decent but unspectacular in his debut start, while the defense limited Miami’s big-play potential but allowed a 49% success rate, which means it currently ranks 126th in that category. The offensive and defensive lines performed worse than expected, and the run game was first underwhelming and then forgotten.
The Irish had a week off to prepare for a strong Texas A&M team that has underachieved a hair because of defensive breakdowns. Quarterback Marcel Reed has furthered his brand of nearly mistake-free ball (zero INTs and one sack in 74 dropbacks), and running backs Le’Veon Moss and Rueben Owens II are averaging 6.6 yards per carry. The defense has knocked opponents off-schedule well, but it has indeed been hit by eight gains of 20-plus yards.
The Aggies scored 40-something and allowed 20-something against both UTSA and Utah State. Notre Dame isn’t much of a “track meets” kind of team, and Carr threw almost all of his passes close to the line of scrimmage against Miami. But he connected on both of his long passes. Might the Irish get aggressive and test A&M’s glitchiness?
It’s easy to see this game becoming one of trench warfare, though random chunk plays could tell the tale. One way or another, the Irish really do need a win here. Even if they were to lose and then win out to finish 10-2 — not a given considering how good future opponents like USC and Arkansas have looked thus far — their résumé might feature only one or two wins over ranked teams, and they could find themselves at the bottom of a pile of 10-2 teams. That’s really not where you want to be.
Current line: Irish -6.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 2.8 | FPI projection: Irish by 5.6
In 2003, Kansas State suffered an early three-game losing streak, then won its first Big 12 title two months later. You can overcome a slow start, but K-State has already almost run out of runway. The Wildcats have dropped three-point heartbreakers to Iowa State (excusable) and Army (less so) and barely beat North Dakota in between.
The run game has been dreadful without injured star Dylan Edwards — he’s evidently 50-50 to play Friday — and while quarterback Avery Johnson has been decent, only opponents are making big plays: 24% of opponents’ completions have gained 20-plus yards (124th nationally).
Arizona, on the other hand, has been spectacular, overachieving against SP+ projections by a combined 34.0 points and playing like 2024’s ridiculously disappointing campaign never happened. Noah Fifita is averaging nearly 18 yards per completion, and the defense has picked off five passes while allowing just two completions over 12 yards.
Once again: We don’t draw conclusions after two weeks, but Arizona has performed infinitely better than K-State so far. If that continues Friday night, K-State shifts to just trying to go 6-6 and Arizona announces itself as a Big 12 contender.
Current line: K-State -1.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 2.9 | FPI projection: Arizona by 2.6
Is it a stretch to put Alabama in this section when the Crimson Tide are three-touchdown favorites? Probably. But I wanted to highlight that the Crimson Tide have been maybe the single-most volatile team in the country through two weeks, first underachieving against SP+ projections by 28.3 points in a dismally unprepared loss to Florida State, then winning nearly every play and overachieving by 41.4 points in a 73-0 win over Louisiana-Monroe.
Wisconsin might not be amazing this year, but the Badgers are closer to FSU than ULM, at least on defense. The Badgers have allowed one drive over 50 yards in two games — yes, against Miami (Ohio) and Middle Tennessee, but still — and they’ve created serious havoc, ranking fourth in sack rate and 15th in stuff rate. Quarterback Danny O’Neil has been efficient filling in for the injured Billy Edwards Jr., but the Wisconsin offense probably won’t threaten Bama much. The defense will force the Tide to put in a shift, however, and prove that last week’s performance was far closer to what we should expect from Bama moving forward.
Current line: Bama -22.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 17.1 | FPI projection: Bama by 15.7
‘This rivalry is full of devastating losses’ panic
The Backyard Brawl is pretty in-your-face about how awesome and wild it is. I mean, “Brawl” is right there in the title. It’s loud and brash enough that you have almost no choice but to think, “Tell me again why we aren’t playing this game every year?” about once per quarter. Rich Rodriguez’s return to WVU has brought a wave of sentimentality … and memories of 2007, when Pitt scored one of the most devastating rivalry upsets of all time.
(No, but seriously, tell me again why we’re not playing this game every year?)
Arkansas-Ole Miss, meanwhile, doesn’t really even have a name and wasn’t played annually until the 1980s. You can probably find plenty of Razorbacks and Rebels fans who don’t even consider this a true rivalry. Fine. But in the past 14 years alone, this game has produced scores of 53-52, 52-51, 38-37, 37-33, 34-30 and 30-27. There aren’t many games I look forward to more, and I can call it whatever I want.
WVU’s Week 2 loss to Ohio — and the subsequent loss of running back Jahiem White to season-ending injury — might have lowered the stakes here, but Milan Puskar Stadium will be humming all the same. Pitt has come out of the gate firing, beating Duquesne and Central Michigan by a combined 106-26 with an explosive offense and dominant run defense. The WVU defense has been better than I expected, though, and it will take only a couple of turnovers to flip this one in the home team’s favor.
Current line: Pitt -2 | SP+ projection: Pitt by 4.5 | FPI projection: Pitt by 2.2
Ole Miss survived one pain-in-the-butt matchup, exacting a bit of 2024 revenge with a 30-23 win over Kentucky last week. Quarterback Austin Simmons is establishing his footing, the secondary looks great, and the Rebels are projected favorites in all but one remaining game. We could be watching a playoff plan come together, but a trio of home games against Arkansas, Tulane and LSU in the next three weeks could provide any number of plot twists.
Arkansas is up to 21st in SP+ following two cupcake wins (Hogs 108, Alabama A&M and Arkansas State 21). Taylen Green is averaging nearly 10 yards per dropback and 13 yards per (non-sack) carry. But the Razorbacks were in the top 30 last September, too, before things went off the rails. If they have staying power this time, they could deliver us another very silly Rebs-Hogs game.
Current line: Rebels -9.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 10.4 | FPI projection: Rebels by 6.6
‘Don’t want the in-state upstart to ruin our great start’ panic
If you don’t knock USF out early, you will pay for it. Boise State drove into Bulls territory on four of its first six possessions but turned the ball over twice, scored once and eventually got done in by a big-play deluge in a 34-7 loss. Florida carved up a bend-don’t-break defense early but settled for three field goals, then threw an interception in its next trip across the 50. Given enough opportunities, USF hit on a couple of chunk plays and stole an 18-16 win.
USF is allowing opponents to win the efficiency battle this year but is preventing big plays and eventually making lots of its own. This formula has prompted a pair of ranked wins.
Miami’s offense is wonderfully efficient. Through two games, including one against Notre Dame, the Hurricanes are 15th in rushing success rate and ninth in passing success rate. Carson Beck‘s arm and the legs of Mark Fletcher Jr. and CharMar Brown are keeping them on schedule beautifully, and they have a No. 5 ranking to show for it. They haven’t made a ton of big plays, though, and the defense has given up gains of 20-plus yards on 5.5% of snaps (70th nationally). Surely the USF formula isn’t going to work again, right?
Current line: Miami -15.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 14.0 | FPI projection: Miami by 6.0
Week 3 chaos superfecta
We are unstoppable! We’re once again using this space to attempt to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number, and thanks to USF’s upset of Florida, we’re two-for-two on the season after going 10-for-14 in 2024.
What’s better than two-for-two? Three-for-three! Let’s take down another ranked team. SP+ says there’s only a 48% chance that No. 5 Miami (81% vs. USF), No. 17 Ole Miss (74% vs. Arkansas), No. 19 Alabama (86% vs. Wisconsin) and No. 24 Auburn (90% vs. South Alabama) all win. Adjust your chaos meters accordingly.
Week 3 playlist
Here are some more, less panicky games you should pay attention to if you want to get the most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Colorado at Houston (7:30 p.m., ESPN). Houston has allowed nine total points and 3.0 yards per play in two games, and Colorado is evidently trying to figure out which of three different quarterbacks is the way forward. The Buffaloes are projected favorites in only two more games this season, so now would be a good time to kick into gear.
Current line: Houston -4.5 | SP+ projection: Houston by 3.3 | FPI projection: Houston by 1.9
Early Saturday
No. 4 Oregon at Northwestern (noon, Fox). Northwestern has defended the pass well this year, but (A) Oregon’s passing game is an upgrade over those of Tulane and Western Illinois, and (B) NU hasn’t really done anything else well. Oregon has done everything well thus far. This one will need some serious upset magic to be interesting in the second half. (But hey, at least Northwestern’s glorious and temporary Lake Michigan stadium will get plenty of screen time.)
Current line: Ducks -27.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 27.1 | FPI projection: Ducks by 23.1
No. 13 Oklahoma at Temple (noon, ESPN2). Only Oregon, USF and (in one game) TCU have overachieved against SP+ projections more than Temple thus far; coach K.C. Keeler is making an immediate impact in Philadelphia, and quarterback Evan Simon is actually second nationally in Total QBR. It’s probably a bridge too far to ask the Owls to scare the visiting Sooners, however.
Current line: OU -24.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 24.1 | FPI projection: OU by 12.3
Memphis at Troy (noon, ESPNU). Memphis is the highest-ranked Group of 5 team in SP+, but if Tae Meadows and the Troy run game get rolling, the Trojans and what should be a pretty spicy home crowd could make this one tough. (See: Tulane’s narrow escape against South Alabama last week.)
Current line: Memphis -6.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 11.8 | FPI projection: Memphis by 6.9
Louisiana at No. 25 Missouri (1 p.m., ESPN+). Missouri scored a wild rivalry win over Kansas last week, but seven of the Tigers’ last 10 games are projected within one score. This isn’t one of them, but Louisiana should be able to test Mizzou on the line of scrimmage, at least, and make the Tigers sweat a bit the week before South Carolina comes to town.
Current line: Mizzou -24.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 25.3 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 23.5
Saturday afternoon
USC at Purdue (3:30 p.m., CBS). Purdue is 2-0 and has established a nice offensive rhythm, albeit against cakey competition. But now begins a brutal stretch: Eight of its final 10 games are against teams ranked 33rd or better in SP+, including five ranked 18th or better (including USC). Can Barry Odom’s Boilermakers spring a surprise?
Current line: USC -21.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 19.7 | FPI projection: USC by 19.9
Oregon State at No. 21 Texas Tech (3:30 p.m., Fox). Oof. Oregon State suffered a devastating collapse in last week’s 36-27 loss to Fresno State. Now the Beavers head to West Texas to face a Texas Tech team that has outscored its first two opponents 129-21. We don’t know what the Red Raiders do wrong yet because they’ve done almost nothing wrong. What can OSU do to slow them down?
Current line: Tech -24.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 27.0 | FPI projection: Tech by 21.3
No. 14 Iowa State at Arkansas State (4 p.m., ESPN2). Iowa State has secured a pair of quality wins over rivals Kansas State and Iowa, but the Cyclones haven’t really gotten their run game going yet. Now’s the chance. ASU’s passing game has some pop, but the defense … doesn’t. Now’s a chance to establish a rhythm and take some pressure off Rocco Becht.
Current line: ISU -21.5 | SP+ projection: ISU by 22.1 | FPI projection: ISU by 16.2
FAU at FIU (6 p.m., ESPN+). SHULA BOWL! FAU certainly manhandled Florida A&M last week and is running Zach Kittley’s offense at the nation’s fastest tempo, but Willie Simmons’ first FIU team has overachieved against projections in each of its first two games. Can the Golden Panthers end a seven-game rivalry losing streak?
Current line: FIU -2.5 | SP+ projection: FAU by 2.7 | FPI projection: FAU by 0.7
Saturday evening
Ohio at No. 1 Ohio State (7 p.m., Peacock). Ohio is another big early-season overachiever, and quarterback Parker Navarro is fearless and physical. The blitz-happy Bobcats defense will try to throw some haymakers too. They probably won’t land many, but they could test Julian Sayin and some of Ohio State’s less experienced players.
Current line: Buckeyes -25.5 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by -31.3 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 24.6
No. 20 Utah at Wyoming (8 p.m., CBSSN). I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: When I’m in charge of all college football scheduling, I’m sending a ranked power conference team to Laramie’s War Memorial Stadium every year. It can be a cauldron. Utah should prevail in its first trip up there in 15 years, but the Cowboys will hit hard and make their remodeled offense work harder than they’ve had to so far.
Current line: Utah -22.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 20.4 | FPI projection: Utah by 20.1
Duke at Tulane (8 p.m., ESPN2). Darian Mensah Bowl! Mensah’s new team hits the road to face his old team, and after the Blue Devils fumbled away an opportunity to beat Illinois last week, they’ll have to rebound quickly to avoid falling to 1-2. Tulane has already beaten one power conference team (OK, it was Northwestern, but still). It looks the part of a big-time squad.
Current line: Tulane -2.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 7.4 | FPI projection: Tulane by 6.1
Late Saturday
Minnesota at Cal (10:30 p.m., ESPN). Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has aced his early tests as Cal’s true freshman QB, completing 69% of his passes and taking almost no sacks. But Minnesota ranks third nationally in yards allowed per dropback (granted, after games against Buffalo and Northwestern State) and generates solid pressure without having to blitz much. The degree of difficulty ramps up considerably now.
Current line: Gophers -2.5 | SP+ projection: Gophers by 3.6 | FPI projection: Gophers by 0.6
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.
Division III: No. 2 Mount Union at No. 15 Grove City (1 p.m., YouTube). After starting the season with a 37-29 win over a top-20 Wheaton team, Mount Union heads to Grove City, Pennsylvania, to face a ranked squad that SP+ loves. Can quarterback Mikey Maloney and the Purple Raiders score enough against a Grove City defense that forced seven turnovers against 2023 national champ Cortland last week?
SP+ projection: Mount Union by 1.8
Division III: No. 16 Wisconsin-Oshkosh at No. 1 North Central (2 p.m., YouTube). Well, you can’t question UW-Oshkosh’s bravery. A week after opening the season in Oregon and beating a top-15 Linfield team, the Titans return to the Midwest to take on Division III’s standard-bearer. North Central would immediately be a competitive FCS program, but this is a tricky season debut for the champs.
SP+ projection: NCC by 23.2
FCS: No. 17 North Dakota at No. 7 Montana (3 p.m., ESPN+). Montana is one of the FCS’ most reliable programs and should be strong again this fall, but North Dakota has begun 2025 by nearly beating Kansas State and walloping (an admittedly hopeless) Portland State. The Grizzlies better be ready for a slugfest.
SP+ projection: Montana by 11.6
With conference play set to open across the country in Week 3, we’re about to get a much firmer grasp on the 2025 college football landscape. Among other things, this weekend will deliver fresh windows into first-year quarterbacks at Georgia and Tennessee when the Bulldogs travel to Neyland Stadium. Elsewhere in the SEC, Florida visits No. 3 LSU with the pair of SEC rivals respectively shouldering very different but equally hefty stakes. Meanwhile, some of college football’s most surprising early-season storylines will continue to play out Saturday with No. 18 South Florida leading the charge as the surging Bulls venture south to No. 5 Miami.
Our college football experts give insight on key matchups in this weekend’s pair of high-profile SEC clashes, the programs that have surprised us so far and the top quotes of the past seven days entering Week 3. — Eli Lederman
Jump to:
Georgia-Tennessee | Florida-LSU
Teams that have surprised us | Quotes of the Week
What will Georgia and Tennessee need from their new starting QBs?
Georgia: Quarterback Gunner Stockton gets his first SEC road test at Tennessee on Saturday, and the Bulldogs will be looking for him to deliver more in the downfield passing game. Stockton played OK in Georgia’s first two wins over Marshall and FCS program Austin Peay, completing 69% of his pass attempts for 417 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He also ran for two scores against the Thundering Herd. His legs weren’t much of a factor in last week’s closer-than-expected win against the Governors. Stockton has taken care of the football and hasn’t put the defense in bad situations, but Georgia needs more explosive plays on offense. He has attempted only 10 passes beyond 10 yards. Georgia went into the transfer portal to get USC’s Zachariah Branch and Texas A&M’s Noah Thomas, and Colbie Young is back after sitting out most of the 2024 season because of a suspension. Those playmakers have to be more involved on offense, along with tight ends Oscar Delp and Lawson Luckie. If Georgia is going to beat Tennessee for the ninth straight time, Stockton has to be more comfortable letting the ball fly, especially against a secondary that is missing starting cornerbacks Jermod McCoy (ACL) and Rickey Gibson III (arm) because of injuries.
Tennessee: The Volunteers couldn’t have asked for much more from transfer quarterback Joey Aguilar in their first two victories against Syracuse and FCS program East Tennessee State. The former App State starter completed 66.1% of his attempts for 535 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. He threw a 73-yard touchdown to Braylon Staley against the Orange and a 53-yarder to Mike Matthews against the Buccaneers. He might have to do even more against Georgia’s defense, which brings back promising safety KJ Bolden and cornerback Daylen Everette, a potential first-round pick in the 2026 NFL draft. The Bulldogs are going to try to stifle Tennessee’s running game and get after Aguilar in the pocket. Georgia coach Kirby Smart and defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann have had UT coach Josh Heupel’s number in recent seasons. The Bulldogs haven’t given up explosive plays, a trademark of Heupel’s system. In each of the past three losses to Georgia, the Volunteers’ high-flying offense failed to throw for 200 yards and didn’t have a passing touchdown. — Mark Schlabach
What do Florida and LSU need to capitalize on to win?
Florida: Aside from avoiding penalties, including spitting on a player? The Gators have to play with the emotion and intensity that comes with knowing their season is hanging in the balance after a shocking 18-16 loss to USF. They can do that by setting the tone on defense, which played well for stretches against the Bulls but then gave up 87 yards on eight plays on the final drive. LSU has struggled to run the ball through two games, and frustrations boiled over after a 23-7 win over Louisiana Tech, in which the Tigers averaged 3.8 yards per carry. In their win over LSU last year, Florida held the Tigers to 2.9 yards per carry. The good news for Florida is it won’t be facing a dual-threat quarterback like Byrum Brown. So if the Gators can limit the LSU backs, they will give themselves a shot. — Andrea Adelson
LSU: The Gators might be more desperate, but the Tigers should be plenty motivated after what happened in Gainesville last fall. LSU’s defense looks like the better of the two units and must cause more distress for DJ Lagway, who averaged 17.4 yards per completion in the 2024 win. The Tigers hurried Lagway nine times but never sacked him. They also let down in the fourth quarter with two touchdowns allowed. LSU’s upgrades on defense and playing at home, where coach Brian Kelly implored that the crowd needs to “live up to our résumé as the toughest place to play in the country,” must become outcome-swinging factors. Garrett Nussmeier is still the superior quarterback, and if LSU can get Caden Durham going — he had 95 rushing yards against Florida last season — the Tigers should prevail. — Adam Rittenberg
Five teams that have surprised us so far
South Florida: It would have been very easy to look at South Florida’s first two games of the season and have both of them — against Boise State and Florida — earmarked as likely losses. Instead, the Bulls went out and started 2-0, making a surprising early case as the best Group of 5 team. The win against Boise State was particularly impressive because of how lopsided it was (34-7). Boise State looked nothing like the team that reached the playoff last season (losing running back Ashton Jeanty, of course, played a significant role in that).
UCLA: After the Bruins finished the 2024 season winning four of their final six games, they brought in transfer quarterback Nico Iamaleava in the offseason. It was reasonable to be optimistic about the direction of the football program. Two games later, UCLA looks like an underdog in all nine of the Big Ten games on its schedule. The Bruins weren’t remotely competitive in their 43-10 loss to Utah, then fell behind 23-0 to UNLV before making it look more respectable in a 30-23 loss last week. Now, UCLA will have to brace for another season of playing in a more than half-empty Rose Bowl.
Kansas State: The only thing between the Wildcats and an 0-3 start, is a last-minute touchdown against FCS North Dakota. Their three-point losses to Iowa State and Army aren’t the end of the world, but this team was expected to compete for the Big 12 title (and still could, to be fair) and hasn’t yet looked the part. Against Army, quarterback Avery Johnson was limited to 172 yards passing and 14 yards rushing. That’s not a formula with which K-State can win.
Florida State: The roller coaster in Tallahassee has been a wild ride. In no other era of college football does it seem plausible for a team to win 19 games in a row, then lose 11 of 13 and then immediately jump back into the top 10. And yet this is the life the Seminoles have lived over the past few seasons. FSU was expected to be better this season, but its convincing win against Alabama in Week 1 might have been the most surprising result of the young season.
Mississippi State: After finishing 2-10 last season with a winless SEC campaign, the Bulldogs didn’t have much momentum. But after an upset of then-No. 12 Arizona State, perhaps this is a team that could be bowling at the end of the season. With games against Alcorn State and Northern Illinois the next two weeks, a 4-0 start seems likely before the gauntlet of conference play begins. — Kyle Bonagura
Quotes of the Week
“According to who? Arch said that to you?” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian responded to a question this week as speculation swirled over the health of Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning. “I’ve never filmed any of you guys when you’re using the bathroom, so I don’t know what faces you make when you’re doing that.”
“Who has one of those? What does that look like? What does a solidified quarterback look like? What does that look like? I want to know. We play quarterbacks every week. What does a solidified quarterback look like?” Colorado coach Deion Sanders said when asked if he had concerns around the absence of a “solidified quarterback” with third-string quarterback Ryan Staub expected to start ahead of veteran Kaidon Salter and freshman Julian Lewis in Week 3. “That could mean something’s up with your roster if it’s clear,” Sanders continued. “Then [when] that clear guy goes down, what’s up with the second one? I like where we are, man. I like what we have. I like what we’re playing with. I like these dice I’m shaking.”
“Just wanted to see if we could,” Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz said of the Tigers’ illegal free kick against Kansas in Week 2 that prompted the Big 12 to suspend the responsible officiating crew on Tuesday. “You know, it’s like asking your parents if you can do something that you know they probably shouldn’t let you do. But sometimes they get it wrong.”
“I love Darian to death,” Tulane coach Jon Sumrall said of Duke and former Green Wave quarterback Darian Mensah ahead of the Blue Devils’ Week 3 visit to Tulane. “I’ve said this publicly: if you play one snap, 100 snaps, 1,000 snaps for me, I’ll love you for the rest of my life. I care about him, wish him well, saw him this summer — I’ve got nothing but love for Darian.”
“I’ve talked to many that believe across the country this is the progress we need to make,” LSU’s Brian Kelly said of Ohio State Buckeyes coach Ryan Day’s response to proposed transfer portal changes. “I want to get my roster set. Now, I know there’s probably 12 or 16 teams that might be in the playoffs at that time. I’m sorry, there’s no crying on the yacht. I mean, we got to get this thing set and its best position at this time to allow us to set our rosters moving forward.”
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Pamela Maldonado
Week 3 of college football season is here, and the board is spicy. Lines are shifting, narratives are forming, and a few teams are still getting priced like their old selves.
I’ve circled my spots, run the numbers, and this week’s card has a mix of edges I feel good about — the kind where matchup meets value. Week 3 feels like college football’s version of speed dating because some teams look amazing at home, others look lost on the road, FCS opponents are muddying the waters, and we’re still figuring out who’s the real deal and who’s just catfishing us.
No spoilers yet, but let’s just say a couple of teams are about to get tested, and I’m betting the market hasn’t caught up.
All odds by ESPN BET
Bet to make: Georgia Tech +3.5
The market is still pricing 2022 Clemson instead of what we’ve seen on the field. It’s early. I know. However, I have doubts.
Clemson has struggled to find rhythm offensively. Cade Klubnik has talent — I thought Heisman talent — but this group is outside the top 90 in offensive efficiency and is converting just 31% of third downs. That’s like trying to win a chess match when you keep losing your queen early.
The biggest mismatch here is explosiveness. Georgia Tech is top 30 in both passing and rushing EPA, while Clemson sits outside the top 80 in both. The mismatch matters because the Yellow Jackets don’t need 12 plays to find the end zone, while Clemson often does. In a game projected to be tight, the team that can create quick-strike touchdowns or flip field position in one play has the edge, and right now that’s Georgia Tech.
Through two games, GT’s rushing offense has been one of the most efficient in the country. It ranks second in rushing yards, averaging over seven yards per carry, with four different players already ripping off runs of 27 yards or longer, including quarterback Haynes King.
That rushing strength will be tested, and King’s injury status is something to keep an eye on, but he is expected to play. He’s a quarterback who forces you to defend every blade of grass.
I look back to late last season and think of this as it déjà vu for Clemson’s defense. They saw this exact movie last season with South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers (166 rushing yards). King has a very similar skill set, except GT’s overall offense is more explosive.
Grab the points. The Yellow Jackets have the sting to pull off the upset.
Bet to make: Oregon -27.5 and Northwestern UNDER 10.5
Oregon is beating up on opponents they’re supposed to, winning by a combined score of 128-16 while averaging 10.2 yards per play. The offense has been balanced and explosive, led by Dante Moore‘s efficiency and a backfield that’s averaging 8.4 yards per carry.
Now they face a Northwestern defense ranked 122nd in EPA per rush allowed, the same group Tulane gashed for 269 rushing yards in Week 1. This sets up as a trench mismatch, and Oregon has the speed and depth to exploit it.
Northwestern’s secondary is solid, but that was against Western Illinois, and even still, Oregon’s run game is the hammer and Northwestern’s front is the nail. The Ducks also are second in yards gained, meaning they are finishing drives at an elite rate. This is one of those matchups where Oregon can control the script, lean on their ground game and force Northwestern to play catch-up with an offense that lacks any weapons to contend.
Betting against this Oregon offense right now (against soft opponents) feels risky. Now, both of the Ducks games were at home, but I see this unit translating on the road, too, in the right context. I’m not at all ready to call them championship ready, but beating up on the little guys? Yes.
Also worth considering: Northwestern team total UNDER 9.5 points (+105)
Oregon’s defense has allowed only two red zone trips. The Wildcats are averaging only 4.5 yards per pass with five turnovers in two games. Oregon’s defense isn’t flashy, but it forces long drives and eliminates explosive plays, allowing just three gains of 20+ yards so far.
Northwestern will need to string together 10-play drives against a top defense that collapses early downs and limits red-zone access. The Ducks might clip the Wildcats’ whiskers and leave Evanston with a shutout.
Bet to make: New Mexico +15.5
We need to stop pretending UCLA has shown us anything that warrants laying more than two touchdowns.
UCLA’s defense has been a problem, giving up a third-down conversion rate of 70%, fourth worst in the country. That means opponents stay on the field, bleed clock and keep games close.
New Mexico is 130th in rushing yards, but that raw number doesn’t tell the whole story when you look at context. Week 1 was at Michigan, one of the best defensive fronts in the country and Scottre Humphrey had just 10 carries for 33 yards which tanked their early rushing stats.
But in Week 2 against Idaho State, we finally saw the real picture: 18 carries, 141 yards, 7.8 YPC and a 61-yard burst, which is not atypical for Humphrey. In fact, he had nine 100-yard rushing games last year.
So is it enough to buy into New Mexico’s ground game here? Against UCLA, yes. UCLA’s run defense is dead last in success rate allowed and just got gashed for 286 rushing yards by Utah and 148 more by UNLV.
This matchup actually tilts toward Humphrey being a real factor again.
The key is game script. If UCLA jumps ahead by multiple scores early, Humphrey gets neutralized, forcing Jack Layne into obvious passing downs, which is not their strength. But if New Mexico can stay within one score into the second half, Humphrey is the player who keeps them competitive.
This isn’t a volume stat issue, it’s a matchup issue, and against UCLA the door is open. Continue fading the Bruins.
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