Tesla Q1 2025 earnings preview: it’s going to be a messy one
Tesla (TSLA) will release its Q1 2025 financial results today, Tuesday, April. 22, after the markets close. As usual, a conference call and Q&A with Tesla’s management are scheduled after the results.
Here, we’ll look at what the street and retail investors expect for the quarterly results.
Tesla Q1 2025 deliveries and energy deployment
CEO Elon Musk and his loyal shareholders often claim that Tesla is now an AI/Robotics company, but the truth is that the company’s automotive business still drives the vast majority of its financial performance.
Tesla’s revenue remains tied mainly to the number of vehicles it delivers.
Earlier this month, Tesla disclosed its Q1 2025 vehicle production and deliveries:
| Production | Deliveries | Subject to operating lease accounting | |
| Model 3/Y | 345,454 | 323,800 | 4% |
| Other Models | 17,161 | 12,881 | 7% |
| Total | 362,615 | 336,681 | 4% |
It was significantly below expectations and approximately 50,000 units short of what Tesla delivered in Q1 2024.
Analysts have been adjusting their revenue and earnings expectations accordingly since the disclosure a few weeks ago.
Now, Tesla’s energy storage business is also starting to make a meaningful contribution to its financial performance. The company disclosed having deployed 10.4 GWh of energy storage products during Q1 2025.
Tesla no longer discloses solar deployment information.
Tesla Q1 2025 revenue
For revenue, analysts generally have a pretty good idea of what to expect, thanks to the delivery numbers and now the energy storage deployment data.
However, many were taken by surprise by how low Tesla’s deliveries were this quarter and the automaker offered a lot of discounts, which will affect the average sale price that analysts are now trying to figure out.
The Wall Street consensus for this quarter is $21.345 billion, and Estimize, the financial estimate crowdsourcing website, predicts a slightly lower revenue of $21.254 billion.
Here are the predictions for Tesla’s revenue over the past two years, with Estimize predictions in blue, Wall Street consensus in gray, and actual results are in green:
This would be about a $1 billion lower than the same period last year – meaning that analysts don’t expect Tesla’s increased energy storage deployment to compensate for the lower vehicle deliveries.
Tesla Q1 2025 earnings
Tesla claims to consistently strive for marginal profitability every quarter, as it invests the majority of its funds in growth, but its growth has disappeared from its automotive business over the last year, and its gross margin is going in the same direction.
Analysts are trying to estimate Tesla’s gross margin with the lower deliveries to figure out its actual earnings per share.
For Q1 2025, the Wall Street consensus is a gain of $0.41 per share and Estimize’s crowdsourced prediction is a little lower at $0.40.
Here are the earnings per share over the last two years, where Estimize predictions are in blue, Wall Street consensus is in gray, and actual results are in green:
If the estimates are accurate, Tesla’s earnings per share would be down from $0.45 during the same period last year.
There are several things that Tesla could do here that could surprise investors with a significant earnings beat. Tesla could have recognized revenue from the launch of FSD in China, even though the launch was brief and 95% of the value of the FSD package is unsupervised self-driving, which Tesla has yet to deliver.
Tesla could have also sold more emission credits. As of the end of last quarter, Tesla was still sitting on a good amount, and while it claims to sell them when the price makes the most sense, it is quite an opaque market and Tesla could at any time decide to sell them just to save itself from a bad quarter.
Other expectations for the TSLA shareholder’s letter, analyst call, and special ‘company update’
As we reported yesterday, this is likely going to be a messy earnings report. Musk has been on a propaganda spree lately after Tesla suffered immense brand damage and declining stock price due to his involvement in politics.
Now, he has called for a “live company update” at the same time as the release of Tesla’s financial results, which appears to be a desperate move at damage control amid a tough quarter for the company.
I expect that he will try to paint a rosy picture of Tesla’s self-driving and robot efforts to come save the company amid declining EV sales.
As I previously reported, I wouldn’t be surprised if he also pushes for Tesla to invest in his xAI startup or proposes a merger between the companies.
Tesla will also take questions from retail shareholders based on the most popular ones on Say. Here are the top 5 questions and my thoughts on them:
- Is Tesla still on track for releasing “more affordable models” this year? Or will you be focusing on simplified versions to enhance affordability, similar to the RWD Cybertruck?
- We have had the answer to that question for about a year now, but Tesla shareholders don’t believe it because Elon claimed that Reuters’ original report that Tesla canceled its more affordable EV was “wrong” when it fact it wasn’t. As we recently reported, Musk killed the “$25,000 Tesla” in favor of the Robotaxi and building new stripped-down versions of Model Y and Model 3.
- When will FSD unsupervised be available for personal use on personally-owned cars?
- Lol – we are just going to get Elon’s “best guess”, which has been wrong every time for the last decade.
- How is Tesla positioning itself to flexibly adapt to global economic risks in the form of tariffs, political biases, etc.?
- Musk is going to say “you go woke, you go broke” and that his pathetic quest to “kill the woke mind virus” will ultimately be good for Tesla because the world will be rid of this destructive virus. As for the global economic risks, I wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla announces more layoffs soon.
- Robotaxi still on track for this year?
- It could very well be. We have already reported in detail about how Tesla’s “robotaxi” launch in Austin, planned for June, is actually a “moving of the goal” and it has very little to do with Tesla’s long-stated promise of delivering unsupervised self-driving in a consumer vehicle, as asked in the second question.
- Did Tesla experience any meaningful changes in order inflow rate in Q1 relating to all of the rumors of “brand damage”?
- If they say no here, don’t believe them. Tesla is down 50,000 units in Q1, and yes, the Model Y changeover has something to do with it, but you can clearly see now, based on new Model Y delivery timelines, that Tesla has no order backlog for the vehicle. It will likely launch incentives to sell the brand-new vehicle that was supposed to save Tesla’s auto business in the coming weeks.
Tune in with Electrek after market close today to get all the latest news from Tesla’s earnings, conference call, and now also an apparent “company update.”
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
Chevron is not seeing signs that the U.S. is close to a recession even as President Donald Trump’s tariffs weigh on expectations for oil demand, CEO Mike Wirth said Tuesday.
“There’s no signs that we see at this point that we are in or close to a recession,” Wirth told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “There are signs that growth may be slowing and we have to always be prepared for that.”
The International Monetary Fund on Monday cut its growth outlook for the U.S. this year to 1.8%, down from 2.7% previously.
The oil market is expecting reduced demand as a consequence of Trump’s tariffs and the decision by OPEC+ increase production faster than expected, Wirth said. Chevron isn’t changing its capital spending plans in response to drop in prices, the CEO said.
U.S. crude oil prices have fallen about 11% since Trump announced his tariffs on April 2. West Texas Intermediate was last up about 72 cents at $63.80 per barrel. OPEC and the International Energy Agency have cut their demand outlooks for this year.
Wirth said U.S. onshore oil production in patches like the Permian Basin is likely to pull back if prices hit $60 per barrel. Offshore production likely won’t be affected, he said.
“That’s an area where if we were to be at a $60 price or even lower you’re likely to see activity pull back in this sector and you’ll see the production response over a few months,” Wirth said. “That’s what we should watch, not so much the deep water activity.”
Chevron is not expecting a major direct impact on its business from Trump’s tariffs as energy has largely been exempt from the levies, Wirth said.
“The effects that we feel are likely to be more the macroeconomic effects as they flow through the economy,” Wirth said. “The bigger issues would be what would it mean for growth, and global trade and how does that evolve.”
Executives at oil and gas companies were scathing in their criticism of Trump’s tariffs in an anonymous March survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, warning that steel tariffs were raising their costs and low prices could impact their activity.
Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE
Join us at the New York Stock Exchange!
Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE, an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12.
Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles, and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!
Little is known about super-secretive EV startup Slate, but the fledgling brand is rumored to be backed by Jeff Bezos and determined to shake up the existing electric order with an affordable lineup of compact SUVs and pickups with that golden $25,000 price tag.
Now, at least, we know what it’s gonna look like. The battle of the billionaires is on!
Redditor jonjopop over at the spotted subreddit spotted what looks like an early prototype of an unbranded SUV with bizarre “CryShare” wrap. CryShare, as a concept, seems to combine the functionality of a ride sharing app like Uber or Lyft with the familiar (to parent, anyway) idea that small babies will often sleep better in a moving car than in their own cribs … but that’s not what’s important here.
Instead, focus on the vehicle itself – parked on Abbot Kinney Boulevard in Los Angeles without explanation or fanfare, this is our best look yet at the kind of vehicle(s) Slate is likely to reveal in the coming days.
Stumbled upon the Bezosmobile [Slate Automotive…idk?] being revealed with an absolutely bizarre marketing campaign
byu/jonjopop inspotted
Other local automotive journalists caught wind of the public unveiling, too – and our friends at The Autopian (Hi, Matt!) sent their own David Tracy out on the streets of LA to check it out. Tracy took the following video and posted it to Instagram.
The Slate breaking cover and causing buzz just ahead of what’s sure to be a painful Q1 earnings call for Tesla is a masterstroke of marketing – especially as doubts surrounding the viability of a “less expensive” Tesla Model Y or Model 3 continue to mount amid the uncertainty of Trump’s tariffs and declining sales of the brand’s more profitable models both at home and abroad.
As with so much involving Slate, however, there is nothing here written in stone – or even cast in cheese. Nothing has been announced, nothing is promised, and for all we know this might have more to do with the affordable Rivian brand launch, a new BYD, or be a viral marketing bit from some local Art Center design student in (relatively) nearby Pasadena. In fact, about the only thing I think we can say about Bezos (?) new Slate project with confidence today is this: Elon could probably use that drink.
SOURCES | IMAGES: Reddit, The Autopian.
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business3 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway