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Tesla (TSLA) will release its Q1 2025 financial results today, Tuesday, April. 22, after the markets close. As usual, a conference call and Q&A with Tesla’s management are scheduled after the results.

Here, we’ll look at what the street and retail investors expect for the quarterly results.

Tesla Q1 2025 deliveries and energy deployment

CEO Elon Musk and his loyal shareholders often claim that Tesla is now an AI/Robotics company, but the truth is that the company’s automotive business still drives the vast majority of its financial performance.

Tesla’s revenue remains tied mainly to the number of vehicles it delivers.

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Earlier this month, Tesla disclosed its Q1 2025 vehicle production and deliveries:

  Production Deliveries Subject to operating lease accounting
Model 3/Y 345,454 323,800 4%
Other Models 17,161 12,881 7%
Total 362,615 336,681 4%

It was significantly below expectations and approximately 50,000 units short of what Tesla delivered in Q1 2024.

Analysts have been adjusting their revenue and earnings expectations accordingly since the disclosure a few weeks ago.

Now, Tesla’s energy storage business is also starting to make a meaningful contribution to its financial performance. The company disclosed having deployed 10.4 GWh of energy storage products during Q1 2025.

Tesla no longer discloses solar deployment information.

Tesla Q1 2025 revenue

For revenue, analysts generally have a pretty good idea of what to expect, thanks to the delivery numbers and now the energy storage deployment data.

However, many were taken by surprise by how low Tesla’s deliveries were this quarter and the automaker offered a lot of discounts, which will affect the average sale price that analysts are now trying to figure out.

The Wall Street consensus for this quarter is $21.345 billion, and Estimize, the financial estimate crowdsourcing website, predicts a slightly lower revenue of $21.254 billion.

Here are the predictions for Tesla’s revenue over the past two years, with Estimize predictions in blue, Wall Street consensus in gray, and actual results are in green:

This would be about a $1 billion lower than the same period last year – meaning that analysts don’t expect Tesla’s increased energy storage deployment to compensate for the lower vehicle deliveries.

Tesla Q1 2025 earnings

Tesla claims to consistently strive for marginal profitability every quarter, as it invests the majority of its funds in growth, but its growth has disappeared from its automotive business over the last year, and its gross margin is going in the same direction.

Analysts are trying to estimate Tesla’s gross margin with the lower deliveries to figure out its actual earnings per share.

For Q1 2025, the Wall Street consensus is a gain of $0.41 per share and Estimize’s crowdsourced prediction is a little lower at $0.40.

Here are the earnings per share over the last two years, where Estimize predictions are in blue, Wall Street consensus is in gray, and actual results are in green:

If the estimates are accurate, Tesla’s earnings per share would be down from $0.45 during the same period last year.

There are several things that Tesla could do here that could surprise investors with a significant earnings beat. Tesla could have recognized revenue from the launch of FSD in China, even though the launch was brief and 95% of the value of the FSD package is unsupervised self-driving, which Tesla has yet to deliver.

Tesla could have also sold more emission credits. As of the end of last quarter, Tesla was still sitting on a good amount, and while it claims to sell them when the price makes the most sense, it is quite an opaque market and Tesla could at any time decide to sell them just to save itself from a bad quarter.

Other expectations for the TSLA shareholder’s letter, analyst call, and special ‘company update’

As we reported yesterday, this is likely going to be a messy earnings report. Musk has been on a propaganda spree lately after Tesla suffered immense brand damage and declining stock price due to his involvement in politics.

Now, he has called for a “live company update” at the same time as the release of Tesla’s financial results, which appears to be a desperate move at damage control amid a tough quarter for the company.

I expect that he will try to paint a rosy picture of Tesla’s self-driving and robot efforts to come save the company amid declining EV sales.

As I previously reported, I wouldn’t be surprised if he also pushes for Tesla to invest in his xAI startup or proposes a merger between the companies.

Tesla will also take questions from retail shareholders based on the most popular ones on Say. Here are the top 5 questions and my thoughts on them:

  1. Is Tesla still on track for releasing “more affordable models” this year? Or will you be focusing on simplified versions to enhance affordability, similar to the RWD Cybertruck?
    • We have had the answer to that question for about a year now, but Tesla shareholders don’t believe it because Elon claimed that Reuters’ original report that Tesla canceled its more affordable EV was “wrong” when it fact it wasn’t. As we recently reported, Musk killed the “$25,000 Tesla” in favor of the Robotaxi and building new stripped-down versions of Model Y and Model 3.
  2. When will FSD unsupervised be available for personal use on personally-owned cars?
    • Lol – we are just going to get Elon’s “best guess”, which has been wrong every time for the last decade.
  3. How is Tesla positioning itself to flexibly adapt to global economic risks in the form of tariffs, political biases, etc.?
    • Musk is going to say “you go woke, you go broke” and that his pathetic quest to “kill the woke mind virus” will ultimately be good for Tesla because the world will be rid of this destructive virus. As for the global economic risks, I wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla announces more layoffs soon.
  4. Robotaxi still on track for this year?
    • It could very well be. We have already reported in detail about how Tesla’s “robotaxi” launch in Austin, planned for June, is actually a “moving of the goal” and it has very little to do with Tesla’s long-stated promise of delivering unsupervised self-driving in a consumer vehicle, as asked in the second question.
  5. Did Tesla experience any meaningful changes in order inflow rate in Q1 relating to all of the rumors of “brand damage”?
    • If they say no here, don’t believe them. Tesla is down 50,000 units in Q1, and yes, the Model Y changeover has something to do with it, but you can clearly see now, based on new Model Y delivery timelines, that Tesla has no order backlog for the vehicle. It will likely launch incentives to sell the brand-new vehicle that was supposed to save Tesla’s auto business in the coming weeks.

Tune in with Electrek after market close today to get all the latest news from Tesla’s earnings, conference call, and now also an apparent “company update.”

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More US cities are offering free or heavily discounted electric bikes to residents

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More US cities are offering free or heavily discounted electric bikes to residents

Electric bikes are booming in popularity across the US, and cities are starting to take notice. From famous programs like those in Denver to smaller initiatives around the country, local governments are rolling out rebate and incentive programs to make e-bikes more affordable, especially for lower-income residents. The goal? Get more people out of cars and onto two wheels.

E-bike incentives vary widely by city and state, but the overall trend is clear: public officials increasingly see e-bikes as a low-cost, low-emission transportation solution that checks a lot of boxes. E-bikes are cheaper than cars, don’t require gas, and are far more accessible than public transit in many neighborhoods. And with the ability to flatten hills and shrink long commutes, they’re attracting a much broader audience than traditional bikes.

Programs like Denver’s wildly popular e-bike rebate initiative have shown how effective these incentives can be. The city offers over $1,00 off an e-bike purchase depending on income level, and the demand has been enormous. Rhode Island recently launched its own statewide rebate program offering up to $750, and cities like Ann Arbor, Oakland, Providence, and dozens of others are following suit with their own variations. A Bend, Oregon program will offer free e-bikes to locals. Washington D.C. is piloting a rebate targeted at delivery workers, and even some utility companies, like Vermont’s Green Mountain Power, have gotten in on the action.

These programs especially benefit lower-income residents, who may rely on expensive or unreliable transportation options to get to work, school, or the grocery store. By offering higher rebates to income-qualified applicants, many programs aim to level the playing field and make car-free living more realistic.

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Of course, not every program has gone smoothly. California’s statewide e-bike incentive, much hyped before its launch, faced repeated delays and technical issues that left many applicants frustrated. While the program finally began distributing vouchers this year, the rollout highlights the challenges of scaling these efforts statewide without sufficient infrastructure or planning.

Still, the momentum is undeniable. As cities grapple with climate goals, traffic congestion, and rising transportation costs, e-bike rebates are a relatively cheap way to make a big impact. The biggest challenge now may be keeping up with demand.

Electrek’s Take:

This is one of those rare win-win policies: cleaner air, less traffic, more mobility for people who need it most – and it’s all powered by a single horsepower and some political will. Let’s hope even more cities plug into this trend.

Of course, funding is the biggest obstacle to keeping programs like these rolling. But with the benefits stacking up, from reduced road damage to improved air quality, hopefully the rewards outweigh the upfront cost.

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Tesla inks $16.5B deal with Samsung for HW6 chips, but still no HW3 solution

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Tesla inks .5B deal with Samsung for HW6 chips, but still no HW3 solution

Tesla will use Samsung for as a supplier for its self-driving computer’s next-gen hardware in a $16.5 billion deal, according to Tesla CEO Elon Musk.

But despite planning two generations ahead, the company still doesn’t have a solution to bring the promised full autonomy to hardware that it’s been promising that capability to since 2016.

Earlier today, Samsung announced a 22.8 trillion won ($16.5 billion) deal that would run through 2033. In that filing, Samsung did not name the customer, only that it is a “large global company”. Later, Bloomberg reported that the customer is Tesla, and Musk confirmed this on twitter. Then in his usual bravado, he stated that the deal is “likely much more than that.”

Musk also stated that the chips will be made in Samsung’s facility in Taylor, Texas. Manufacturing is likely to start in 2026.

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Samsung makes the chips for the self-driving computers in Tesla’s current vehicles, but the next generation will be made by TSMC, first in Taiwan and then later in Arizona. Then the next-next generation will be covered by this new Samsung deal.

The new deal is significant due to TSMC’s global dominance of chipmaking. Samsung has had significant unused capacity, so the Tesla deal is a big boost for the company’s chip foundry business.

Tesla has gone through several generations of chips, previous referred to as “HW,” standing for “hardware,” with a number indicating their generation. More recently, Tesla started referring to its chips with “AI” instead of “HW,” in order to incorporate the tech buzzword du jour.

Currently Tesla is on HW4/AI4, and TSMC will make HW5, then Samsung will make HW6 again.

These generations of hardware each get successively more capable, and can handle more data and thus theoretically become better at self-driving tasks.

Current Tesla HW4 vehicles cannot drive themselves, and are only capable of SAE level 2 operation, which requires an attentive driver behind the steering wheel (though Tesla’s solution does work better than most others). Tesla’s ‘Robotaxi’ system is currently operating in Austin without anyone in the driver’s seat, but has a “safety rider” who can take control of the vehicle, blurring the line somewhat on which SAE level it is operating at.

But what about HW3?

There’s a problem with the differentiation between these generations of hardware: ever since 2016, when Tesla was on version 2 of its hardware, it has promised full self-driving capability on all of its vehicles.

This was announced in a blog post on October 19, 2016, which has since been deleted from Tesla’s website but is still available through archive.org.

Tesla stated, at the time, that every single Tesla vehicle produced after that date had the hardware that would allow for full self-driving.

It eventually became apparent that HW2 would not be capable of full self-driving tasks, and Tesla upgraded to HW3, promising all HW2 customers that they would get a free upgrade to HW3 if they bought Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system, which has varied in price over time but once cost $15,000.

However, Tesla still tried to charge owners $1,500 for that hardware upgrade, even though Tesla sold cars claiming that they had all the hardware needed for full self-driving.

One owner had to take Tesla to court to get them to deliver on this promise, and Tesla is still charging $1,000 for this hardware owners already bought. And that’s not the only one, there are a number of other self-driving false advertising cases that have gone to court, arbitration, or reached a settlement.

Now, with the change from HW3 to HW4, we’re seeing indications of a similar run-around.

We’ve already seen differing FSD software versions based on which hardware level vehicles have, with HW3 vehicles getting updates later than HW4 vehicles do. On last week’s Q2 earnings call, Tesla CFO Vaibhav Taneja said:

What we want to do is get unsupervised done on hardware four first. Once it’s done, then we’ll go back and look at what we need to do with the hardware three cars. Like I said, the focus is first to get unsupervised out and then we’ll go back and see what more work we need to do.

“Unsupervised” is Tesla’s new name for actual full self-driving, which would allow a vehicle to drive without the supervision of someone in the driver’s seat. This as opposed to “supervised FSD,” a phrase Tesla started using after about a decade of promising full self-driving without delivering it.

Here, Taneja said that HW3 cars will eventually get FSD, but Tesla hasn’t really figured out the path to that, and it’s focusing on new cars first, then will go back around to see what needs to happen.

Previously, Musk had stated that Tesla “will have to upgrade people’s hardware 3 computer,” but more recently it has become apparent that Tesla really doesn’t have a plan for that upgrade. And Taneja’s comments suggest that Tesla will still try to wedge FSD onto HW3, despite previously admitting that the system is not capable of it.

The existence of future HW5 and even HW6 chips also suggest that current systems are not capable of full self-driving. If HW4 is FSD-capable, then why would Tesla need two more generations of chip in the next two years in order to do the tasks that it promised all of its cars could do a full decade prior?

So, much more than having no solution for HW3 cars (or even HW2 cars, some of which have gotten free upgrades, but others who have been charged $1,000 to upgrade to a computer they already paid for), does this mean that Tesla is going to kick the can further down the road, and eventually have no solution for HW4 and HW5 either?

And, when will we know about these solutions? Tesla has sold millions of vehicles with the promise of self-driving which will seemingly need an upgrade at some point. And many of those vehicles are old enough, at this point, to be retired, despite spending up to $15,000 on a piece of software that has never been delivered to them.

An HW6/AI6 computer will surely have all sorts of new whizbang capabilities, but we were promised those capabilities years ago, and they’re still not delivered yet.


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Mary Kay goes electric with new Pink Cadillac OPTIQ (cue the music)

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Mary Kay goes electric with new Pink Cadillac OPTIQ (cue the music)

Mark Kay’s iconic Pink Cadillac awards are driving into the future for 2025. The company’s first-ever electric Pink Cadillac OPTIQ made its debut during the Mary Kay annual Seminar in Charlotte this weekend, symbolizing a “recharged vision” for the future of the popular brand.

Pioneers in monetizing friendships female empowerment and entrepreneurship, the Pink Cadillac is considered one the most coveted symbols of achievement for Mary Kay sales reps, signifying not just great sales (GM Authority reported that it took ~$102,000 in annual sales to qualify back in 2001), but also leadership, a history of mentoring others, and a sustained reputation of excellence among their peers.

The women you see behind the wheel of the Pink Cadillac are the real deal, in other words, and the big Caddy really does mean something to people in the know.

The iconic pink Cadillac was born in 1968 when Mary Kay Ash purchased a Cadillac Coupe De Ville from a Dallas dealership and promptly had it painted to match the pale pink Mary Kay lip and eye palette. General Motors later named the color Mary Kay Pink Pearl, and the shade is exclusive to Mary Kay.

MARY KAY

Now, the Pink Cadillac is going to stand for environmental sustainability, too, enabling Mary Kay’s top performers to set yet another positive example for anyone aspiring to their success.

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“For decades, the Mary Kay pink Cadillac has symbolized accomplishment, aspiration, and the power of recognition,” said Ryan Rogers, Chief Executive Officer of Mary Kay. “With the introduction of the all-electric OPTIQ, we’re honoring that iconic legacy while driving into a transformative future—one grounded in our commitment to sustainability and dedication to inspiring and celebrating the achievements of our independent sales force for generations to come.”

Mary Kay announced its new Pink Cadillac with this video, below.

Same Legacy, New Energy


“The legacy continues with the new, all-electric (and still very pink) Cadillac Otiq [sic],” reads the official Mary Kay copy on YouTube. “The Optiq remains instantly recognizable with the pink pearl exterior, while modernizing with sleek, cutting-edge features. In addition, this vehicle showcases our commitment and dedication to sustainability by reducing our carbon footprint while continuing to inspire.”

Speaking of inspiration, I can’t hardly hear the words “Pink Cadillac” without thinking of the song. But, since “Bruce Springsteen” has become something of a trigger word for the MAGA snowflakes in the audience, I’ll post a different, but similarly great song about rose-tinted GM flagships from Dope Lemon. You can let me know what you think of it in the comments.

As ever, the Cadillac is not a “gift,” per se – but typically takes the form of a two year lease paid for by Mary Kay. No word yet on what the exact shape and form the OPTIQ deal will take.

Electrek’s Take


Whatever you might think of MLMs or businesses like Amway, Avon, or Mary Kay, they play a big part in the social dramas of hundreds (if not thousands) of neighborhoods and online communities. The people at the top are influential, and the people “below” them genuinely try to emulate them and follow their lead.

Thanks to Mary Kay, that might soon mean a decision to buy an electric vehicle – and that result would be a win for everyone.

SOURCE | IMAGES: Mary Kay.


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Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.

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