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Bitcoin acting ‘less Nasdaq,’ more like gold, despite 60% recession odds

Bitcoin is decoupling from the US stock market and starting to trade more like precious metals, in another signal of Bitcoin’s growing role as a safe-haven asset against global economic disruption.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price is showcasing its growing maturity as a global asset, becoming “less Nasdaq — more gold” over the past two weeks, according to Alex Svanevik, co-founder and CEO of the Nansen crypto intelligence platform.

Bitcoin staged a 12% recovery in the two weeks leading up to April 22, despite ongoing tariff escalation between the world’s largest trading nations. The US increased reciprocal tariffs on China to 125% as of April 9, while China raised import tariffs from 84% to 125% effective April 12.

Bitcoin acting ‘less Nasdaq,’ more like gold, despite 60% recession odds
Source: Alex Svanevik

Bitcoin was “surprisingly resilient” amid the trade war compared to altcoins and indexes like the S&P 500, but remains vulnerable to economic recession concerns, Svanevik told Cointelegraph, adding:

“We expect gold to be more resilient, although gold holdings could be net sold in case investors panic and want to cover margin call. This was seen one to two days at the worst of the trade war earlier this month.”

Still, Bitcoin will continue benefiting from regulatory development and the US Bitcoin Reserve-related news, particularly with more developments on how the “Treasury is looking for ways to swap reserves into BTC,” added Svanevik.

Related: Bitcoin rally above $100K may follow US Treasury buybacks — Arthur Hayes

While the US Bitcoin reserve will initially hold BTC forfeited in government criminal cases, President Donald Trump’s executive order instructed the government to develop “budget-neutral strategies” to buy more Bitcoin.

The US is looking at “many creative ways” to fund its Bitcoin investments, including from tariff revenue and by reevaluating the Treasury’s gold certificates, creating a paper surplus to fund the BTC reserve without selling gold, Bo Hines of the Presidential Council of Advisers for Digital Assets said in an interview on April 14.

Related: Bitcoin up 33% since 2024 halving as institutions disrupt cycle

US recession odds rise to 60%, says JPMorgan

Despite Bitcoin’s resilience against tariff concerns, a potential US recession may slash investor demand for risk assets.

The probability of a US recession in 2025 has risen from 40% to 60%, according to an April 15 research report from JPMorgan, which wrote: 

“The latest unwinding of the Liberation Day tariffs reduces the shock to the global trading order, but the remaining universal 10% tariff is still a material threat to growth and the 145% tariff on China keeps the probability of a recession at 60%.”

Bitcoin acting ‘less Nasdaq,’ more like gold, despite 60% recession odds
Global Recession Outlook. Source: JPMorgan Global Economics

JPMorgan expects the Fed to “start easing in September, with further cuts at every meeting thereafter through January 2026 — reaching a 3% policy rate by June 2026,” added the report. 

Magazine: Altcoin season to hit in Q2? Mantra’s plan to win trust: Hodler’s Digest, April 13 – 19

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US ambassador to Israel calls cabinet minister ‘delusional’ for claim UK played key role in Gaza peace deal

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US ambassador to Israel calls cabinet minister 'delusional' for claim UK played key role in Gaza peace deal

The US ambassador to Israel has called cabinet minister Bridget Phillipson “delusional” after she told Sky News the UK played a key role in the Gaza peace deal.

The education secretary told Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips that Sir Keir Starmer’s presence at a signing ceremony for the ceasefire deal in Egypt on Monday “demonstrates the key role that we have played”.

Politics latest: Phillipson announces crackdown on antisemitism at UK universities

She did not say exactly what the UK’s role in the ceasefire, largely attributed to Donald Trump, is or was.

But she added: “We have played a key role behind the scenes in shaping this.

“It’s right that we do so because it’s in all of our interest, including our own national interest, that we move to a lasting peace in the region.

“These are complex matters of diplomacy that we are involved in. But we do welcome and recognise the critical role that the American government played in moving us to this point.”

More on Bridget Phillipson

However, the US ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, reposted the Sky News clip of Ms Phillipson’s comments and said: “I assure you she’s delusional.

“She can thank Donald Trump anytime just to set the record straight.”

Mr Huckabee was part of the negotiating team for the peace deal, with Mr Trump calling the former Arkansas governor “AMAZING” as he said he “worked so hard, and did so much, to bring about peace in the Middle East”.

In August, Mr Huckabee said the UK and other European nations who said they would declare a Palestinian state were “having the counterproductive effect that they probably think that they want”.

Israel: UK did not play key role in peace deal

Israel’s deputy foreign affairs minister, Sharren Haskell, told Sky News the UK played “the opposite” of a key role in the peace deal after the Palestinian state declaration, which eventually happened in September.

She accused the PM’s initial threat “at a very sensitive time” in July of having “pushed Hamas to embolden their position and to refuse a ceasefire two months ago”.

“I think that right now, the quiet that was given during the negotiation, and to President Trump, had probably played a bigger role than what the government had done two months ago,” she said.

“The message that the UK government has sent Hamas was the message that: the longer they continue this war, they will be rewarded.

“I mean, you must understand that when a terrorist organisation is thanking you. You are on the wrong side of history.”

Read more:
Gaza latest: Hostages Square boos Netanyahu
Hamas official thanks Donald Trump for ceasefire deal

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Final preparations for hostages in Israeli hospital

Ms Phillipson stood by the decision to declare a Palestinian state, saying it was “the right thing to do”.

Husam Zomlot, the Palestinian ambassador to the UK, told Sky News it was a “moment of leadership” for the UK to declare a Palestinian state, and a “responsibility to begin to correct a century of the gravest historic injustices committed against our people”.

He added: “That moment three weeks ago, when the UK did recognise, is a moment when we can say that the wheels of history are turning in a different direction.”

No plans for British troops on the ground

The education secretary also told Sky News the government has “no plans” to put British troops into Israel or Gaza as part of a stabilisation force after the ceasefire.

The US military will help establish a multinational force in Israel, known as a civil-military coordination centre, which is likely to include troops from Egypt, Qatar, Turkey and the UAE.

Tens of thousands of Palestinians have walked back to Khan Younis in southern Gaza. Pic: AP
Image:
Tens of thousands of Palestinians have walked back to Khan Younis in southern Gaza. Pic: AP

On Friday, US officials said up to 200 US troops already based in the Middle East will be moved to Israel to help monitor the ceasefire in Gaza.

The day before, President Trump announced Israel and Hamas had “signed off on the first phase” of a peace plan he unveiled last week.

Pic: Reuters
Image:
Pic: Reuters

Aid trucks have been gathering in Egypt to cross into Gaza after months of warnings by aid groups of famine in parts of the territory.

In Israel, the remaining hostages are due to be returned from Gaza by Hamas on Monday under the first phase of the peace plan. Twenty are believed to still be alive, 26 have been declared dead, while the fate of two is unknown.

The ceasefire agreement has been made two years after Hamas stormed Israel on 7 October 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages.

Israel’s military offensive has killed more than 67,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, which the UN deems reliable.

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Put equity lending onchain, or get out of the way

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Put equity lending onchain, or get out of the way

Put equity lending onchain, or get out of the way

Equity lending’s outdated batch settlements and manual reconciliations are failing markets. Onchain infrastructure offers real-time, programmable solutions.

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Man charged with stalking after allegedly targeting Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey and his family

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Man charged with stalking after allegedly targeting Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey and his family

A man has been charged with stalking and possession of a flick knife after allegedly targeting Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey and his family.

Inigo Rowland, 58, of Surbiton, south London, was arrested last Monday, but it was only made public on Sunday.

He appeared at Wimbledon Magistrates’ Court on Tuesday and was remanded in custody, the Met Police said.

The offences are alleged to have taken place between June and October.

Sir Ed, the MP for Kingston and Surbiton, lives in southwest London with his wife, Emily, their 17-year-old son John, and his younger sister Ellie.

A spokesperson for the Met Police said: “Inigo Rowland, 58, of Surbiton has been charged with stalking and possession of a flick knife.

“He appeared at Wimbledon Magistrates’ Court on Tuesday, 7 October and was remanded into custody. He will next appear at the same court on Tuesday, 14 October.

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“He was arrested on Monday, 6 October in relation to the offences, which are alleged to have taken place between June and October.”

A Lib Dem spokesperson said: “We cannot provide any details at this time, Ed’s number one priority is the safety of his family.”

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