There will be much to chew over at the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) spring meetings this week.
Central bankers and finance ministers will descend on Washington for its latest bi-annual gathering, a place where politicians and academics converge, all of them trying to make sense of what’s going on in the global economy.
Everything and nothing has changed since they last met in October – one man continues to dominate the agenda.
Six months ago, delegates were wondering if Donald Trump could win the election and what that might mean for tax and tariffs: How far would he push it? Would his policy match his rhetoric?
Image: Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters
This time round, expect iterations of the same questions: Will the US president risk plunging the world’s largest economy into recession?
Yes, he put on a bombastic display on his so-called “Liberation Day”, but will he now row back? Have the markets effectively checked him?
Behind the scenes, finance ministers from around the world will be practising their powers of persuasion, each jostling for meetings with their US counterparts to negotiate a reduction in Trump’s tariffs.
That includes Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who is still holding out hope for a trade deal with the US – although she is not alone in that.
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Could Trump make a deal with UK?
Are we heading for a recession?
The IMF’s economists have already made up their minds about Trump’s potential for damage.
Last week, they warned about the growing risks to financial stability after a period of turbulence in the financial markets, induced by Trump’s decision to ratchet up US protectionism to its highest level in a century.
By the middle of this week the organisation will publish its World Economic Outlook, in which it will downgrade global growth but stop short of predicting a full-blown recession.
Others are less optimistic.
Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, said last week: “Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession. We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries.”
She acknowledged the world was undergoing a “reboot of the global trading system,” comparing trade tensions to “a pot that was bubbling for a long time and is now boiling over”.
She went on: “To a large extent, what we see is the result of an erosion of trust – trust in the international system, and trust between countries.”
Image: IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva. Pic: Reuters
Don’t poke the bear
It was a carefully calibrated response. Georgieva did not lay the blame at the US’s door and stopped short of calling on the Trump administration to stop or water down its aggressive tariffs policy.
That might have been a choice. To the frustration of politicians past and present, the IMF does not usually shy away from making its opinions known.
Last year it warned Jeremy Hunt against cutting taxes, and back in 2022 it openly criticised the Liz Truss government’s plans, warning tax cuts would fuel inflation and inequality.
Taking such a candid approach with Trump invites risks. His administration is already weighing up whether to withdraw from global institutions, including the IMF and the World Bank.
The US is the largest shareholder in both, and its departure could be devastating for two organisations that have been pillars of the world economic order since the end of the Second World War.
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Here in the UK, Andrew Bailey has already raised concerns about the prospect of global fragmentation.
It is “very important that we don’t have a fragmentation of the world economy,” the Bank of England’s governor said.
“A big part of that is that we have support and engagement in the multilateral institutions, institutions like the IMF, the World Bank, that support the operation of the world economy. That’s really important.”
The Trump administration might take a different view when its review of intergovernmental organisations is complete.
That is the main tension running through this year’s spring meetings.
How much the IMF will say and how much we will have to read between the lines, remains to be seen.
The Federal Court of Australia has sided with fintech firm Block Earner in an appeal against a ruling that found it was required to hold a financial services license for its now-discontinued crypto-related products.
Block Earner’s crypto-linked fixed-yield earning product is not a financial product, or a managed investment scheme, and is not a derivative under the Corporations Act, Justices David O’Callaghan, Wendy Abraham and Catherine Button said in an April 22 judgment.
The trio said Block Earner’s yield product couldn’t be classed as an investment or financial product because users loaned crypto under fixed terms for interest payments and didn’t pool contributions to generate further benefits. The terms and conditions framed it as a loan, and users had no exposure to the firm’s business outside of the agreed interest rate, they added.
A court has dismissed the legal proceedings against Block Earner and ordered Australia’s financial regulator to pay costs. Source: ASIC
The Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC), which first brought the case, has been ordered by the court to pay costs for the proceedings, including appeals. The regulator said in an April 22 press release that it is currently “considering this decision.”
Block Earner’s chief commercial officer, James Coombes, told Cointelegraph the court decision brings clarity that crypto assets shouldn’t be treated differently from other asset classes when applying existing laws.
“Our product was simply defined as one where customers would lend their assets to us for a fixed return, there was no share in the upside of the pool of assets and as such no Managed Investment Scheme existed,” he said.
“The fact that it included crypto assets should not alter that simple definition, and I believe this case forms a bedrock for ambitious brands around Australia to build from.”
An ASIC spokesperson declined further comment.
Earner product won’t make a return
Despite the win in court, Block Earner will not be reviving its Earner product after axing it when legal proceedings began, but Coombes said that “crypto-backed loans products remain the core focus of the company.”
“Regulation going forward is not an easy task, and we empathise with the regulators on this point,” Coombes added. “We hope a collaborative process can bring about positive change.”
ASIC launched civil legal proceedings in November 2022, arguing that Block Earner needed an Australian Financial Services License to offer its three crypto-linked fixed-yield earning products.
In February 2024, an Australian court initially found the fintech firm would need a financial services license to operate its crypto yield-bearing products.
Former SEC Chair Jay Clayton confirmed that he has been appointed as the interim US Attorney for the Southern District of New York after the Democratic Party’s Senate leader used a “blue slip” to block a vote confirming Clayton’s position.
The appointment comes a little over five months after US President Donald Trump nominated Clayton to take on the role. He replaces Damian Williams, who played a major role in the conviction of former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried and other high-profile crypto cases.
Clayton said on April 22 his top priorities would be to protect public safety, ensure the integrity of the US financial system, defend national security interests and combat fraud, particularly against the elderly and most vulnerable.
The temporary nature of Clayton’s appointment resulted from Democrat Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s use of a blue slip to block Clayton’s confirmation on April 16, effectively preventing a Senate vote and official confirmation of his position.
Blue slips can be used by senators to block US attorney or district court judicial nominees in their home states.
Clayton is allowed to serve as interim US attorney for up to 120 days without Senate confirmation. After that, he will need to be approved in a Senate vote or receive a temporary extension of his interim status from Manhattan’s federal court.
Trump criticized Schumer’s move in an April 17 Truth Social post, pointing out that Clayton received bipartisan support in the Senate and that Clayton complied with all requests asked of him.
The interim status of Clayton’s position will last until around Aug. 20. The role will see him as the top law enforcement officer for New York’s Southern District, encompassing the counties of New York, Bronx, Westchester, Rockland, Putnam, Orange, Dutchess and Sullivan.
The Southern District of New York is the oldest federal court district in the US, and its location in the country’s financial epicenter means it often handles high-profile cases involving white-collar crime.
Clayton has shared mostly positive views on crypto
Clayton served as SEC chair between May 4, 2017, and Dec. 23, 2020, and brought 56 cases against crypto firms during his tenure.
He stated in a December 2021 CNBC interview that he’s a “huge believer in crypto technology,” adding that “the efficiency benefits in the financial system and otherwise from tokenization are immense.”
Clayton has also praised Bitcoin (BTC) as a prominent store of value, but didn’t allow Bitcoin exchange-traded products during his time as SEC chair.
The first US Bitcoin investment product was approved in 2021 under former SEC Chair Gary Gensler.
A lawyer representing one of the co-founders of crypto mining service Hashflare has addressed how their criminal case may move forward after the pair received “self-deport” letters from the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS).
In an April 11 filing in the US District Court for the Western District of Washington, Hashflare co-founders Sergei Potapenko and Ivan Turogin reported they had received a DHS letter directing them to “leave the United States” as part of a push by the Trump administration to effect mass deportations. The government letter contradicted orders from Judge Robert Lasnik, who restricted travel for Potapenko and Turogin as part of their bail conditions.
In February, the Estonian nationals pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit wire fraud as part of a deal with authorities. Between 2015 and 2019, the two were responsible for defrauding Hashflare users out of more than $550 million. They also raised $25 million from investors in 2017, claiming they would establish a digital bank called Polybius. The firm was never created.
Indicted in October 2022, Potapenko and Turogin were arrested and held in Estonia before their extradition to the US in May 2024. Both have been free on bail since July 2024 but could face up to 20 years in prison each at sentencing.
Ordered to leave, forced to stay
“[Potapenko and Turogin each] got letters from DHS to their personal email saying ‘deport immediately,’” Reed Smith partner and defense counsel Mark Bini told Cointelegraph. “It caused some angst because [our client and his co-defendant], their conditions of release include that they comply with the law. And here you have this letter saying if you stay in the country, you’re breaking the law. And of course, their bail conditions say they can’t leave the Seattle area.”
The DHS letters ordering certain people to “depart the United States immediately” were reportedly sent to thousands of immigrants who had used the government’s CBP One app to enter the country legally. However, some citizens reported receiving the same letter in US President Donald Trump’s attempts to effect deportations through his office.
Bini initially thought it was a possibility that the US government was suggesting that Potapenko or Turogin “self-deport” to Estonia after the Justice Department issued a memo hinting it would change its enforcement policy in criminal cases involving crypto. The Hashflare co-founders had been expected to remain in the jurisdiction until at least Aug. 14 for their sentencing hearings.
“I have not encountered this situation before, where you have essentially two folks in the federal government telling you conflicting things,” said Bini.
The attorney added that Potapenko or Turogin now carried letters with them at all times that stated DHS had deferred action on their “self-deportation” for one year in the event that authorities mistakenly tried to detain them and remove them from the country. Though the pair could still receive prison time, Potapenko, Turogin and Hashflare reported returning $400 million in crypto payments to users and “agreed to forfeit their interests in assets that the government froze in 2022.”
“We’re going to try and convince the judge to frankly side with DHS and let them self-deport to Estonia to their families because we believe that there was no actual financial harm to the customers of Hashflare,” said Bini. “It’s a weird [case] because for our clients, we want to be deported. Our clients are Estonian. Their families are Estonian.”