The American president cannot tell the Federal Reserve chair what to do – and that is by design.
But Trump could fire Powell if he chose to – unprecedented as that would be.
You only need to look at the market reaction to Trump’s language about Powell for a hint at how his firing would impact the global economy.
“Powell’s termination can’t come fast enough,” Trump said last week.
On Monday, he called Powell a “major loser”. This schoolyard language has global economic implications.
The markets – including the all-important bond markets – reacted with sell-offs at the end of the day.
Image: Donald Trump leaves the Rose Garden after announcing Jay Powell as his nominee to become chairman of the US Federal Reserve in 2017. File pic: Reuters
Powell is a registered Republican. Trump hired him as Fed Reserve Chair during his first term but the relationship became fractious, fast.
Yet Trump did not remove him back then.
The position has a four-year term and President Joe Biden nominated him to a second term in 2022. That gives him until 2026.
Trump sees Powell increasingly as a barrier to his agenda. Trump’s ‘burn hot’ economy ideology does not align with Powell’s more pragmatic centrist ideology.
He is unable to influence and bend Powell in the way that he has done with his own cabinet and members of Congress.
In his first term, Trump was talked out of removing Powell. But we know this second term is wholly different. He was talked away from the edge on many issues during his first term. This time, in many areas, he’s jumped.
Remember, Trump forced out two FBI directors – one in each term – because neither was considered to be loyal enough. The FBI, like the Federal Reserve, is considered traditionally to be independent.
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13:27
Could Trump make a deal with the UK?
Of course, the Federal Reserve has a profound global influence in a way the FBI, as an institution, does not.
The fed chair, with his role in setting interest rates and so much more, is arguably the last powerful, independent pillar of the economic policy structure in the US.
Congress has largely devolved its role to Trump and the executive branch, as illustrated by his tariff plans (which Congress could have influenced but chose not to).
Donald Trump’s removal of Jay Powell and replacement with a compliant loyalist could fundamentally shake the global economy.
Powell is one of the few reliable actors left defending economic stability in the US
Donald Trump’sdisparagement of Jay Powell as a “major loser” is not the first time he has insulted the man he appointed as chair of the US Federal Reserve in 2018.
The president appears to have had buyer’s remorse from the moment he approved the former investment banker to fill a post that is fundamental to US economic stability.
Trump was calling for the Fed to cut rates and stimulate the economy long before he was re-elected, but online barbs have more consequence when fired from the Oval Office than the campaign trail.
Equivalent to the Governor of the Bank of England, the chair of the Federal Reserve ultimately directs US monetary policy, including the setting of short-term interest rates, with the aim of maintaining high employment and stable inflation.
That makes Powell a crucial figure amid the chaos and incoherence of Trump’s economic policy, which in less than 90 days has shattered the certainties that made America the world’s largest economy, and the dollar the global reserve currency.
Image: Jay Powell speaks to the media in March. File pic: Reuters
The market reaction to Trump’s venting against Powell, and briefing that his administration is considering ways to remove him from office, suggests investors fear it will make a bad situation worse.
As traders returned from the Easter weekend with the president’s criticism of Powell ringing in their ears, the “Trump slump” deepened.
US stocks and the dollar fell, while yields on US Treasuries – the mechanism by which the government borrows money – rose, indicative of falling bond prices as investors dumped US debt.
Gold prices, meanwhile, hit a record $3,500 an ounce as investors piled into what remains the pre-eminent “safe haven” asset in times of uncertainty.
The combination of falling equity, currency and bond prices is a toxic trifecta more usually associated with emerging economies in political crisis, not the mighty United States.
We saw something similar here in 2022, when Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng’s unfunded tax cuts, presented without an independent assessment from the Office for Budget Responsibility, caused a run on the gilt market.
Then it was the Bank of England that stepped in to stabilise the bond market.
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1:03
How will tariffs impact you?
What’s happening in the US is both bigger and more consequential.
Trump’s tariff program, seemingly imposed and withdrawn by presidential whim, has already proved disastrous for market sentiment, with expectations of higher inflation and lower growth, at home and globally, set to be confirmed by the International Monetary Fund in Washington this week.
Powell and the Fed are among the few reliable actors in this drama, with markets betting their next meeting in May will see rates held, in part because of inflationary policy made in the White House.
The prospect of Powell being replaced by a more pliant figure hand-picked by Trump would pull another block from the wobbling Jenga tower of US economic credibility.
The independence of the Fed is one of the foundations of American stability, an assumption that underpins the $29 trillion Treasuries market that makes the world’s debt go round.
If investors large and small, state and private, fear that the US is not good for that debt, it could be calamitous for American pre-eminence and the global economy.
Powell’s term ends in 2026 and he believes he cannot be removed by presidential decree.
That does not mean he will not face more pressure to stand aside.
Elon Musk has said the time he spends with Donald Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) will “drop significantly” from May and he will allocate more time to Tesla.
It comes after first-quarter profits at Tesla sank as the company grapples with falling sales, partly due to President Trump’s tariffs.
As a special government employee, Mr Musk was limited to 130 days in his role at DOGE, which is primarily aimed at slashing federal spending.
But the cuts, which included axing government jobs, have divided the country and prompted a backlash against his company, including protests and attacks on Tesla showrooms, prompting Donald Trump to label the vandals “terrorists”.
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0:36
‘Elon Musk has got to go’
Tesla said on Tuesday that quarterly profits fell by 71% to $409m (£306.77m) from $1.39bn (£1.04bn) in the first quarter of 2024. Revenues were also well below forecasts, dropping 9% to $19.3bn (£14.5bn) between January and March.
The company’s value has plummeted since reaching a record high in mid-December. Since then, Tesla’s share price has fallen more than 50%.
Tesla’s share price has tumbled following the financial market turbulence caused by the global trade war tariffs, competition from Chinese EV rivals and concern over Mr Musk’s ability to give the firm the attention it requires.
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Mr Musk’s role as chief executive of the company was among the most common questions shareholders were asking about in a question-and-answer portal ahead of an investor call on Tuesday evening.
As well as his role at the top of Tesla, he is also the CEO of space exploration company SpaceX and owns social media company X, formerly known as Twitter.
Image: Donald Trump hired Elon Musk to help cut federal spending, but Tesla has faced a public backlash. Pic: AP
Musk has ‘lost focus’
An early Tesla investor Ross Gerber said in a recent interview with Sky’s Business Live that Mr Musk had lost his focus and was now too “divisive”.
There has been no clear sign of improvement at Tesla as much-awaited updates on making affordable cars and developing driverless technology left some questions unanswered.
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6:41
‘I think Tesla needs a new CEO’
Work on an affordable car remained “on track for start of production in the first half of 2025”, Tesla’s financial results said, but no details on a prototype were given.
Production of Tesla’s self-driving robotaxi, named Cybercab, is scheduled to start in 2026.
Tariffs harming outlook
Uncertainty was also evident in the outlook statement, which pointed to the harm tariffs could pose to the business.
“It is difficult to measure the impacts of shifting global trade policy on the automotive and energy supply chains, our cost structure and demand for durable goods and related services,”
“The rate of growth this year will depend on a variety of factors, including the rate of acceleration of our autonomy efforts, production ramp at our factories and the broader macroeconomic environment”.
While Teslas are made in the US, there are also factories in China and Germany. Under the tariff regime, those car parts are subject to additional taxes when they enter America.
A bag belonging to the US Homeland Security Secretary was stolen on Sunday night – containing thousands of dollars in cash and an ID card that gives access to secure agency buildings.
Kristi Noem was eating at a Washington DC burger restaurant with family when a man in a face covering sat near her table and stole her purse, according to two people familiar with the theft.
The cabinet secretary was carrying $3,000 (£2,243) in cash because “her entire family was in town including her children and grandchildren”, Department of Homeland Security spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin told NBC.
“She was using the withdrawal to treat her family to dinner, activities and Easter gifts.”
Image: The purse contained her ID card. Reuters file pic
Just before 8pm, a man wearing an N-95 mask walked into the restaurant and up a few stairs to where Ms Noem was eating dinner.
He sat near her table and moved his chair close to hers before sliding her purse toward him with his foot, according to surveillance footage viewed by law enforcement, the sources said.
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Within minutes, the man had Ms Noem’s purse under his jacket and walked out of the restaurant.
At least two on-duty members of the US Secret Service were in the restaurant – between Ms Noem and the front doors – according to a source who witnessed the meal.
They said the restaurant wasn’t very busy at the time.
The purse also contained credit cards, blank cheques, her passport, driver’s licence and a set of keys.
It’s unclear whether Ms Noem was specifically targeted – and investigators are looking into whether the man knew who the purse belonged to.
When asked about the incident, Ms Noem said: “I don’t think I can comment on it yet. It’s not resolved yet.”
She said the Secret Service was aware but said she hadn’t spoken to agency personnel about what happened.
Ms Noem is a vocal supporter of Donald Trump’s policies of deporting undocumented immigrants and fortifying the US-Mexico border to slow illegal migration.
Harvard University is suing Donald Trump’s administration after it rejected a list of demands from the White House and had $2.2bn (£1.6bn) of government funding frozen.
The Ivy League institution, in Cambridge, Massachusetts, is accused of ideological bias and allowing antisemitism during campus protests last year against Israel’s war in Gaza.
The Trump administration, which began a review of $9bn (£6.7bn) in federal grants for Harvard in March, had demanded the university screen international students for those “hostile to the American values” and the end of all diversity, equality and inclusion programmes.
Image: Protesters earlier this month at Harvard called on the university to resist interference by the federal government. Pic: Reuters
Image: Students at a rally last week at Harvard against Donald Trump’s funding policies. Pic: AP
The university’s president Alan Garber has remained defiant and rejected those and other reforms, prompting the US President to question whether the university should lose its tax-exempt status.
Mr Trump accused the institution of pushing what he called “political, ideological, and terrorist inspired/supporting ‘Sickness?'” in a post on Truth Social.
Harvard has seen student-led protests in recent days calling on the institution to resist interference by the federal government.
Harvard’s lawsuit, filed in Boston, described the research funding freeze as “arbitrary and capricious” and violating its First Amendment rights.
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“The government has not – and cannot – identify any rational connection between antisemitism concerns and the medical, scientific, technological, and other research it has frozen that aims to save American lives, foster American success, preserve American security, and maintain America’s position as a global leader in innovation,” the court documents revealed.
Image: Harvard University has rejected a series of demands from the White House. File pic: AP
On Monday, White House spokesperson Harrison Fields issued a defiant response to the lawsuit: “The gravy train of federal assistance to institutions like Harvard, which enrich their grossly overpaid bureaucrats with tax dollars from struggling American families is coming to an end.
“Taxpayer funds are a privilege, and Harvard fails to meet the basic conditions required to access that privilege.”
The Trump administration has also paused some funding for universities including Columbia, Princeton, Cornell, Northwestern and Brown over the campus protests.
But protesters, including some Jewish groups, say their criticism of Israel’s military actions in Gaza is wrongly associated with antisemitism.
Mr Garber said the institution would continue to fight hate and fully comply with anti-discrimination laws.
Image: A small encampment in support of Palestinians at the Harvard campus in April 2024. Pic: Reuters
The American Council on Education, a non-profit organisation with more than 1,600 member colleges and universities, supported the legal action by Harvard.
“It has been clear for weeks that the administration’s actions violated due process and the rule of law. We applaud Harvard for taking this step.”