Could the local elections reshape British politics?
Can Reform UK turn votes into seats – and from there into power? How far do the Tories have to fall? How unpopular is Labour now that it’s in government? We find out on local election day on 1 May.
Next Thursday will see three types of elections
A total of 23 councils are up for grabs – most in places we once called Tory shires, until last year’s general election.
This includes 14 county councils, all but two of which have been Conservative-controlled, as well as eight unitary authorities, all but one of which are Tory.
Then finally, there is Doncaster council, a Labour-held borough. Kemi Badenoch claims they could lose all the councils they are contesting, setting expectations as low as possible.
Then there are mayoral elections – four of them powerful metro mayors for the combined authorities, two of which are being elected for the first time. That’s on top of two directly elected borough mayors.
Read more: Where are the local elections and how can you vote?
Thirdly, there’s a by-election triggered after the Labour MP Mike Amesbury resigned in March. He was found guilty of assault after being filmed repeatedly punching a man late at night.
For the council elections, this is what happened in 2021 when these councils were last up. The baseline we’ll measure the results against.
Notice the Tories are defending so many, so they’re the ones facing the biggest losses – “well into the hundreds”, says Sky News’ election analyst Michael Thrasher. But look at Reform too – it barely existed back in 2021, so that’s on zero.
This is why this set of elections is going to be so interesting. 2021, when these councils were last up, the Tories were riding high – their best night for 13 years on the National Equivalent Vote, which works out the national picture based on the local results. Labour did so badly Sir Keir Starmer considered resigning.
Since then, the Tories have plummeted – halved in vote share if you look at polls. Labour down too. Lib Dems the same and Greens strong in places.
But jockeying for joint first place: Reform UK – who are putting up the most candidates of any party – now contesting 99% of the seats.
However, as Reform leader Nigel Farage knows only too well, votes don’t always mean seats. Look at this snapshot from the past – 2013. The same set of elections. Labour got 21% of the votes and 21% of the seats. But Farage’s UKIP got 21% of the vote and 8% of the seats.
Then there are the mayors. Labour won all four that were contested last time, although one stepped down. Could Reform get its first taste of power in Lincolnshire?
Or could it even be the Runcorn by-election? A massive long-shot – it’s Labour’s 49th safest seat. But will this northwest seat be the most important moment of the night? Labour insiders say they’re still hopeful.
There are signs our politics could be changing profoundly – 1 May could point to a new future.
Partners of a company linked to Baroness Michelle Mone have said they are open to a possible settlement with the government after the company was found to have breached a £122m PPE contract.
The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) had accused PPE Medpro of providing 25 million “faulty”, non-sterile gowns during the COVID pandemic.
The High Court ruled earlier this month that it must pay back a £121.9m sum, the price of the gowns.
PPE Medpro, a consortium led by Lady Mone‘s husband Doug Barrowman, filed to enter administration earlier this month.
In a statement on Friday, Mr Barrowman said: “The consortium partners of PPE Medpro are prepared to enter into a dialogue with the administrators of the company to discuss a possible settlement with the government.”
PPE Medpro has spent £4.3m defending its position.
It said offers to settle on a no-fault basis had been made, including the remake of 25 million gowns, or a £23m cash equivalent, which were rejected.
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Sky’s Paul Kelso analyses scandal surrounding Baroness Mone
The consortium was awarded government contracts by the former Conservative administration to supply personal protective equipment (PPE) during the pandemic after Lady Mone recommended it to ministers.
It insists that it provided all 25 million gowns and disputes that the gowns were not sterile.
It is understood the partners want to resolve the issue, and administrators have been urged to approach the government to reach an agreement.
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Reeves welcomes ruling on PPE contract breach
Read more:
Can PPE Medpro afford to pay back govt?
Baroness Mone: I have no wish to rejoin Lords
Baroness Mone ‘should resign’ from Lords
In the High Court ruling, Mrs Justice Cockerill said the gowns “were not, contractually speaking, sterile, or properly validated as being sterile”. This meant they could not be used in the NHS.
Barristers for PPE Medro claimed it had been “singled out for unfair treatment” and accused the government of “buyer’s remorse”.
Michelle Mone recommended the firm, led by husband Doug Barrowman, to minsters. Pic: PA
It claimed the gowns had become defective because of the conditions they were kept in after being delivered. It also said the court made its ruling on a technicality.
Lady Mone branded the judgement a win for the “establishment”, while Mr Barrowman said it was a “travesty of justice”.
Baroness Mone, who created the lingerie brand Ultimo, was made a Conservative peer in 2015.
She now says she has “no wish to return” to the House of Lords.
Liz Hurley has encouraged women to check themselves for breast cancer – and warned some are not because they “are scared that it’s self-indulgent to spend time on themselves”.
The British actress and model, who has been a global ambassador for the Estee Lauder Companies’ Breast Cancer Campaign for 30 years, told Sky News’ Jacquie Beltrao the demands of everyday life mean women “always put ourselves last”.
“We’re doing stuff for kids, for husbands, for mothers, for in-laws. There’s so much that we have to do that we tend to come last,” she said.
Hurley, whose grandmother died of breast cancer, said she finds it helps by thinking of breast checks as a way to “keep ourselves healthy in order to continue to take care of everybody else”.
That way, it “doesn’t seem self-indulgent or taking time away from something else, it seems really important”.
Checking one’s breasts “takes two minutes”, she added, or “about the same length of time as brushing your teeth”.
Hurley speaking to Sky’s Jacquie Beltrao
More than a third of women in the UK do not take up the first mammogram appointment they are offered, and a recent study of 500,000 women from Sweden found a similar non-attendance rate there.
More than 11,000 people die from breast cancer every year in the UK, or 31 each day, Cancer Research UK said.
That makes it the second most common form of cancer death, accounting for 7% of all cancer deaths, the charity said.
Asked whether some of the messaging had “fallen on deaf ears”, Hurley said attending screenings, which are free on the NHS, is “definitely advised”, and she suggested all women should familiarise themselves with their breasts.
In the past, the illness was seen as “a disease for older ladies. And we didn’t understand that younger women also get diagnosed. That’s been a lot in the news lately”, Hurley said.
“There appear to be more women, younger women being diagnosed. And that could well be one of the reasons is that people are more breast aware, more self-aware.”
Read more on Sky News:
Men must ‘demand cancer test’
Warning of millions of new cancer cases
She told Ms Beltrao, who is a breast cancer survivor, people “have seen you on television talking about breast cancer”.
As a result of more awareness, she said, women have “begun to understand that it can never be too early to start checking your own breasts and to familiarise yourself [with them].
“When you’re younger and you’re not yet having regular mammograms, you do really have to be aware of your own breasts to be able to see if there’s a change, feel if there is a change and go to your doctor.”
The King’s coat of arms will be on the front of all new British passports from December, the Home Office has announced.
The inside pages have also been updated to include images of natural landscapes from all four UK nations, including Ben Nevis, the Lake District, Three Cliffs Bay, and the Giant’s Causeway.
The Home Office said the new passport is the first wholly new design in five years, and it will be the “most secure passport ever produced”.
It will include the latest anti-forgery technology, including new holographic and translucent features.
The updated features will improve verification and make passports significantly more resistant to forgery or tampering, the Home Office said.
The bio page of the new UK passport. Pic: PA
Migration and citizenship minister Mike Tapp said: “The introduction of His Majesty’s arms, iconic landscapes, and enhanced security features marks a new era in the history of the British passport.
“It also demonstrates our commitment to outstanding public service – celebrating British heritage while ensuring our passports remain among the most secure and trusted in the world for years to come.”
The Home Office has confirmed that passports bearing Queen Elizabeth II‘s coat of arms will remain valid until their printed expiry date.
Read more from Sky News:
Liam Gallagher among stars at Ricky Hatton funeral
Migrant with AK-47 tattoo found guilty of threatening to kill Farage
However, it advised travellers to check their passports’ validity and renew them well in advance of any upcoming trips.
The first modern British passport was introduced over a hundred years ago, in 1915.
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