Jesse joined ESPN Chicago in September 2009 and covers MLB for ESPN.com.
CHICAGO — Carson Kelly needed a moment to take in what he was hearing last Friday. Batting eighth in the lineup, the Chicago Cubs catcher had already hit two home runs and driven in five in what would end up as a wild 13-11 comeback win over the Arizona Diamondbacks.
He was about to step into the batter’s box in the eighth inning for his fourth at-bat when he heard it coming from the stands: “Car-son, Kel-ly. Car-son Kel-ly.”
“I had to take a step out,” Kelly told ESPN with a smile the next day. “‘Wait, is that actually what they’re saying?'”
Chants directed toward a catcher at the bottom of the order aren’t commonplace in MLB — but then again, neither is the month the Cubs catcher is having nor the production the team is getting from the bottom of the lineup.
Fast-forward a couple days and this time it was the Cubs’ No. 7 hitter, Pete Crow-Armstrong, who earned the treatment.
“P-C-A, P-C-A,” bellowed the Wrigley Field crowd during the team’s two-game sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers earlier this week. After slugging a whopping .897 against the Dodgers in the seven-game season series, the L.A. native deserved all the attention he was getting. In fact, the 7-8-9 hitters in the Cubs’ lineup are garnering as many headlines as other teams’ 1-2-3 hitters as Chicago has vaulted to the top of the run-scoring leaderboards in MLB.
To wit: Heading into their weekend series against the Philadelphia Phillies, the Cubs are averaging 6.3 runs per game. That’s nearly a full run higher than the next best team, the New York Yankees, who average 5.5 runs. The separator has been the bottom of the order, which includes Crow-Armstrong, Kelly and fellow catcher Miguel Amaya. That trio, along with newcomer Kyle Tucker, has transformed the team’s offense into the best in the league over the first month of the season.
“This team is a completely different ballclub than the one we saw in Tokyo,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said. “They’re playing a lot better.”
The Cubs went to Japan in mid-March hoping for the best in their two-game series against the Dodgers but instead got their worst. Their offense scored a total of four runs in two losses, looking as anemic as they had for much of last year when they missed out on the playoffs for the fifth straight (full) season. Chicago was a league-average offense in 2024, leading to a league-average type of year in the standings: 83 wins and ticket home for October.
But something clicked at the plate late in the season for two young players: Crow-Armstrong and Amaya. The former, in particular, began to show why he was taken in the first round by the New York Mets in 2020, eventually getting traded to the Cubs for Javier Baez one season later. PCA — as he’s known — is a five-tool speedster whose game is as brash as his personality, all in a good way. His OPS jumped 150 points in the second half of last season.
Meanwhile, Amaya was a once-promising prospect who got sidelined by injuries and was slow to find his form at the plate. There was chatter the Cubs were in the market to replace him in the first half of last season but then he eliminated a leg kick and suddenly found his stroke. His OPS jumped over 200 points from the first half to the second last year. The team added Kelly via free agency this winter and he has gone on to produce a 1.413 OPS in 14 games.
Needless to say, the bottom of the Cubs’ order is rolling.
“Me and Miggy [Amaya] talk about that a lot,” Crow-Armstrong told ESPN recently. “We take a ton of pride of being at the bottom and producing at the bottom, and f—ing turning the lineup over.
“That’s where we belong right now.”
The numbers bear out their production — as of Wednesday, the Cubs had led the majors in home runs (13) from their 7-8-9 hitters. According to ESPN Research, that’s as many home runs as 21 other organizations have from their 1-2-3 hitters and as many home runs as two entire teams have overall, Boston and Toronto.
“Last year, I felt like our offense really struggled because the bottom of the order really wasn’t producing,” president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said.
The players’ individual transformations all came in different forms. Crow-Armstrong got “on-time” (and quieter) with his swing, Amaya eliminated that leg kick while Kelly might be the biggest surprise as his 10-year major league track record showed a career high OPS+ of just 112 in a single season. It’s 293 right now.
“I finally found something I believe in and know that works,” Kelly said. “I’m not chasing a certain result. You have to go through the ups and downs to learn what it takes to be a big leaguer.”
Kelly’s production has prompted the speedy Crow-Armstrong to slow down on the bases when hitting behind the catcher.
“I have no inclination to steal when Carson is hitting,” Crow-Armstrong quipped. “It looks like he’s seeing f—ing beach balls.”
Perhaps there is no better illustration of the Cubs’ depth on offense than what happened the day after Kelly hit for the cycle earlier this month in Sacramento: He got a day off.
“The fact that he gets an off day the day after he hits for the cycle and the day after a two-homer game is pretty funny,” Crow-Armstrong said with a laugh.
The Cubs are getting the best version of Kelly — he’s hitting .342 — something the Diamondbacks were hoping for in the years he played for them, from 2019 to 2023. He hit 18 home runs that first season in Phoenix but never came close to who he is at this moment — smashing long balls against his former team, including a three-run homer earlier in the inning that brought on those chants last Friday.
“Carson Kelly is a way different player than when we had him,” Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen said after that game. “Good for him. We always believed in the potential. It seems like it’s coming together for him.”
Hazen sees the same overall potential coming together for the Cubs, who have a similar offense to the Diamondbacks: Both have plenty of power and speed.
“PCA is a stud,” Hazen continued. “That was probably more of an age/experience situation …. Their lineup is way deeper, way more dangerous and way more dynamic than I remember being last year.”
And that has proved to be the case so far. The Cubs are the first team in major league history to compile 35 home runs and 35 stolen bases in the first 25 games of a season. They lead all of baseball in batting average (.265), on-base percentage (.346), stolen bases (40) and OPS (.806) while tied with the Yankees for first in slugging and third in home runs.
“We’ve been consistent against everyone,” the longest tenured Cub, Ian Happ, said. “Scoring late, adding on. We’ve done it against everybody. It’s been 1-9, the ability of guys to get on base and make things happen. Every day is someone different.”
The Cubs truly have done it against “everyone” — they’re ending the toughest strength-of-schedule month of any team in baseball this season, at least as it’s rated right now. They’ve already won season series against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks while splitting six games with the San Diego Padres. All three of those teams are off to great starts, and the Cubs have played a whopping 20 games against NL West opponents already, meaning easier days should be ahead.
And while the bottom of the order has been the difference-maker, one player near the top is doing his part as well. Tucker has been every bit as good as advertised in his first month with the team, becoming the first Cubs player since 1900 to record at least seven home runs and seven stolen bases within the team’s first 26 games.
It hasn’t all been perfect for Chicago. The team has a glaring hole at third base after sending down struggling prospect Matt Shaw while shortstop Dansby Swanson is off to a slow start, striking out 33 times in 104 at-bats. But even he got into the flow in Wednesday’s win over the Dodgers, going 2-for-4 while driving in two runs in yet another thrilling Cubs victory, 7-6 over the reigning World Series champions.
Even after the night that he had, Swanson chose to direct conversation back to the bottom of the order — the driving force behind the Cubs’ 16-10 start, which has them in first place in the NL Central.
“Seeing a guy like Miggy or Pete grow up is really fun to see,” Swanson said. “The work, the conversations, the advice, you start to see it show up in real time. As a group, it’s a huge reason we’ve had the start that we’ve had.
“There’s no drop-off down there. It’s impressive.”
There’s plenty of history in the rivalry between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies. It’s about 116 miles from Citi Field to Citizens Bank Park. The two teams been competing for the NL East since 1969. Star players from Tug McGraw to Jerry Koosman to Lenny Dykstra to Pedro Martinez to Zack Wheeler have played for both franchises. Mets fans loathe the Phanatic, and Phillies fans laugh derisively at Mr. Met.
Despite this longevity, the two teams have rarely battled for a division title in the same season. The only years they finished No. 1 and 2 or were battling for a division lead late in the season:
1986: Mets finished 21.5 games ahead
2001: Both finished within six games of the Braves
2006: Mets finished 12 games ahead
2007: Phillies finished one game ahead
2008: Phillies finished three games ahead
2024: Phillies finished six games ahead of Mets and Braves
So it’s a rare treat to see the Mets and Phillies battling for the NL East lead in as New York faces the San Francisco Giants on “Sunday Night Baseball” this week. This season has also been a bit of bumpy ride for both teams, so there is pressure on both front offices to make trade deadline additions in hopes of winning the World Series that has eluded both franchises in recent years despite high payrolls and star-laden rosters. Let’s dig into what both teams need to do before Thursday.
The perfect trade deadline for the Mets
1. Bullpen help
The Mets already acquired hard-throwing lefty Gregory Soto from the Orioles, but David Stearns will likely look for another reliever, given that the Mets’ bullpen has struggled since the beginning of June with a 5.02 ERA. In my grade of the trade, I pointed out the importance for the Mets to add left-handed relief. Think of potential playoff opponents and all the key left-handed batters: Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper on the Phillies; Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy on the Dodgers; Kyle Tucker, Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong on the Cubs.
Soto has held lefties to a .138 average this season, and it does help that the Mets have two lefty starters in David Peterson and Sean Manaea. They also just activated Brooks Raley after he had been out since early 2024. If he is back to his 2022-23 form, when he had a 2.74 ERA and held lefties to a .209 average, maybe the Mets will feel good enough about their southpaw relief.
They could still use another dependable righty reliever. Mets starters were hot early on, but they weren’t going deep into games, and outside of Peterson, the lack of longer outings is a big reason the bullpen ERA has skyrocketed. Carlos Mendoza has overworked his setup guys, including Huascar Brazoban and Reed Garrett. Brazoban has never been much of a strike thrower anyway, and Garrett similarly faded in the second half last season. Adding a high-leverage righty to set up Edwin Diaz makes sense. Candidates there include David Bednar of the Pirates, Ryan Helsley of the Cardinals, Griffin Jax or Jhoan Duran of the Twins, or maybe a longer shot such as Emmanuel Clase or Cade Smith of the Guardians.
Mark Vientos was a huge key to last season’s playoff appearance and trip to the NLCS, hitting .266/.322/.516 with 27 home runs after beginning the season in Triple-A. He hasn’t been able to replicate that performance, though, hitting .224/.279/.354. That has led to a revolving door at third base, with Vientos, Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio starting games there in July. Overall, Mets third basemen ranked 24th in the majors in OPS entering Friday.
Lack of production at third is one reason the Mets’ offense has been mediocre rather than very good — they’re averaging 4.38 runs per game, just below the NL average of 4.43. They could use another premium bat, given the lack of production they’ve received from center field and catcher (not to mention Francisco Lindor‘s slump since the middle of June). Maybe Francisco Alvarez‘s short stint back in Triple-A will get his bat going now that he’s back in the majors, but going after Suarez to hit behind Juan Soto and Pete Alonso would lengthen the lineup.
Tyrone Taylor is a plus defender in center and has made several incredible catches, but he’s hitting .209/.264/.306 for a lowly OPS+ of 65. Old friend Bader is having a nice season with the Twins, hitting .251/.330/.435. Maybe that’s a little over his head, given that he had a .657 OPS with the Mets last season, but he would still be an offensive upgrade over Taylor without losing anything on defense — and he wouldn’t cost a top-tier prospect. The Mets could still mix in Jeff McNeil against the really tough righties, but adding Suarez and Bader would give this lineup more of a championship feel.
The perfect deadline for the Phillies
1. Acquire Jhoan Duran
Like the Mets, the Phillies already made a move here, signing free agent David Robertson, who had a 3.00 ERA and 99 strikeouts in 72 innings last season with the Rangers. On paper, he should help, but he’s also 40 and will need a few games in the minors to get ready. Even with Robertson, the Phillies could use some more help here. They’ll eventually get Jose Alvarado back from his 60-game PED suspension, but Alvarado is ineligible for the postseason. At least the Mets have an elite closer in Edwin Diaz. Jordan Romano leads the Phillies with eight saves and has a 6.69 ERA. Matt Strahm is solid, but more useful as a lefty setup guy than a closer (think of all those left-handed batters we listed for the Mets, then sub out Juan Soto and Brandon Nimmo for Harper and Schwarber).
And the Phillies’ bullpen has consistently come up short in big games. Think back to last year’s NLDS, when Jeff Hoffman lost twice to the Mets. Or 2023, when Craig Kimbrel lost two games in the NLCS against the Diamondbacks. Or the 2022 World Series, when Yordan Alvarez hit the huge home run off Alvarado in the clinching Game 6.
So, yes, a shutdown closer is a must. Maybe that’s Bednar, maybe Clase if he’s available (although he struggled in last year’s postseason), maybe Helsley. But the guy Dave Dombrowski should go all-in to get: Duran. The window for the Phillies is slowly closing as the core players get older. Duran is under control through 2027, so he’s a fit for now and the immediate future. The trade cost might be painful, but with his 100 mph fastball and splitter, he has the elite stuff you need in October.
The Phillies have received below-average production from both left field (mostly Max Kepler) and center field (Brandon Marsh/Johan Rojas platoon). The center-field market is pretty thin except for Bader or maybe a gamble on Luis Robert Jr. I’d pass on Robert, stick with the Marsh/Rojas platoon and upgrade left field with O’Hearn, who is hitting .281/.375/.452 for the Orioles. He isn’t the perfect fit since, like Kepler, he hits left-handed and struggles against lefties, but he’s a patient hitter with a much better OBP, and he’s passable in the outfield.
Here’s the bottom line: The Phillies have to admit that some of their long-term position players aren’t getting the job done — such as second baseman Bryson Stott, who has a 77 OPS+. Third baseman Alec Bohm has been better but also has a below-average OPS.
That makes Castro a nice fit. He’s not a star, but he’s an above-average hitter, a switch-hitter who plays all over the field for the Twins, having started games at five different positions. He could play second or third or start in left field against a lefty. Philadelphia could even start him in center instead of Rojas, although that would be a defensive hit. Bottom line: Castro would give the Phillies a lot more versatility — or a significant offensive upgrade over Stott if they start him every day at second.
Note as well: Stott has hit .188 in 33 career postseason games. Bohm has hit .214 with two home runs in 34 postseason games. The Phillies need a different offensive look for October.
It would be ideal if every MLB team were so desperate to win that they would do whatever it takes. But in an industry with so many variables from team to team — roster composition, payroll commitment, market size, owner ambition, fan rabidity and history — some organizations are willing to go further and do more than others.
The New York Mets paid more in luxury taxes last season ($97 million) than the Pittsburgh Pirates have dedicated to payroll this season, and Pittsburgh could attempt to reduce salary commitments even further at this year’s trade deadline.
Some teams are more desperate than others. As we near the July 31 deadline, we present the teams most desperate to make a deal.
New York played in the World Series last year, and in a lot of markets, that might be enough to satisfy a fan base. But not with the Yankees, whose most faithful fans judge them under the George Steinbrenner Doctrine: If you don’t win the World Series, you’ve had a bad year. This is a constant.
The Yankees could return to where they were last October. The 33-year-old Aaron Judge, one of the most dynamic hitters ever, is having another historic season. New York wants to take advantage of that — particularly because the American League is wide open with as many as seven or eight AL teams having reasonable paths to the World Series.
But the Yankees still have distinct holes. They badly need an upgrade at third base, which someone like Eugenio Suarez could fill. Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt suffered season-ending elbow injuries, leaving a need for another experienced starting pitcher. Their bullpen also needs help in the sixth and seventh innings.
After the departure of Juan Soto, Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner and general manager Brian Cashman are probably under more pressure to do something this season than any of their peers. What else is new?
The major question that hangs over this Philadelphia team, as was the case with those Tigers teams, is about the bullpen: Is there enough depth and power? For the Phillies, that is complicated by the situation with lefty Jose Alvarado, who will return in August from his 80-game suspension under the PED policy but not be eligible for the postseason.
The Phillies paid heavily for free agent reliever David Robertson, giving him the equivalent of a $16 million salary for the rest of the regular season, but they could use another reliever who is adept at shutting down high-end right-handed hitters in the postseason.
On the days Tarik Skubal pitches, the Tigers could be the best team in baseball; it’s possible that in the postseason, he could be his generation’s version of Orel Hershiser or Madison Bumgarner, propelling his team through round after round of playoffs to the World Series.
But the Tigers might have Skubal for only the rest of this year and next season, before he, advised by his agent Scott Boras, heads into free agency and becomes maybe the first $400 million pitcher in history.
Now is the time for Detroit to make a push for its first championship in more than four decades. And for Scott Harris, the team’s president of baseball operations, that means adding a couple of high-impact relievers capable of generating a lot of swing-and-misses.
The Mariners showed they are serious about making moves before this deadline with Thursday’s trade for first baseman Josh Naylor.
The last time the Mariners reached the league championship series, Ichiro Suzuki — who will be inducted into the Hall of Fame this weekend — was a rookie. Edgar Martinez was a 38-year-old designated hitter, and Jamie Moyer and Freddy Garcia were the staff aces. You get the point: It has been a really long time since the Mariners have had postseason success, and the team has never reached the World Series.
An opportunity seems to be developing for Seattle. The talented rotation, hammered by injuries in the first months of this season, could be whole for the stretch run. Cal Raleigh is having the greatest season by a catcher, contending with Judge for the AL MVP Award. Julio Rodriguez has generally been a strong second-half player.
Even ownership seems inspired: After a winter in which the Mariners spent almost nothing to upgrade the roster, other teams report that Seattle could absorb money in trades before the deadline.
5. New York Mets
Owner Steve Cohen doesn’t sport the highest payroll this year — the Dodgers’ Mark Walter is wearing that distinction — but the Mets are well over the luxury tax threshold again, in the first season after signing Juan Soto. Cohen has made it clear that generally, he will do what it takes to land the club’s first championship trophy since 1986.
But that does not include preventing David Stearns, the Mets’ respected president of baseball operations, from doing what he does best — making subtle and effective deals at the trade deadline. Rival execs expect that Stearns will work along the same lines he did last year — finding trades that improve the team’s depth without pillaging its growing farm system. That could mean adding a starting pitcher capable of starting Game 1, 2 or 3 of a postseason series, as well as bullpen depth.
Cohen is experiencing the impact of overseeing a front office that made an impetuous win-now trade at the 2021 deadline, when the Mets swapped a minor leaguer named Pete Crow-Armstrong for two months of Javier Baez. That clearly didn’t pan out for them. Cohen is desperate to win, but within the prescribed guardrails.
Last winter, the Padres had to live with the knowledge that they were probably the best team other than the Dodgers and that they came within a win of knocking out L.A. There is a lot about San Diego’s 2025 roster to like: Manny Machado clearly responds to a big stage, and the bullpen could be the most dominant at a time of year when relief corps often decide championships.
However, as Padres general manager A.J. Preller navigates this trade deadline in the hopes of living out late owner Peter Seidler’s dream of winning San Diego’s first World Series title, he has a relatively thin, aging, top-heavy roster with a lot of significant payroll obligations. This is why the Padres are considering trading Dylan Cease, who is potentially the highest-impact starter available on the market. Preller could move Cease to fill other roster needs, current and future ones, and then deal for a cheaper veteran starter to replace him.
“He’ll have to rob Peter to pay Paul,” one of Preller’s peers said.
Hope has emerged after the team’s all-in, $500 million signing of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., with the Blue Jays taking the lead in the AL East.
Toronto’s rotation is comprised of an older group — 34-year-old Kevin Gausman, 36-year-old Chris Bassitt, 40-year-old Max Scherzer and 31-year-old Jose Berrios. Without a clear favorite in the AL, Toronto could break through for its first title since the Jays went back-to-back in 1992-93 — and in just the second season since the club’s expensive renovations of Rogers Centre were completed. When Alex Anthopoulos led the front office a decade ago, he made an all-in push to get the Jays back into the playoffs, adding players like David Price because he believed this was the right time for them to take their shot — and they came very close to getting back to the World Series.
Reportedly, Mark Shapiro — the team’s incoming president at the time — did not approve of Anthopoulos’ strategy. Now, Shapiro’s Blue Jays are in a similar situation in 2025 to where they were under Anthopoulos: Will they wheel and deal aggressively before the deadline, or will they be conservative?
The Dodgers won the World Series in 2024, after taking the title in the shortened season of 2020. So, if they don’t win a championship this year, it’s not as if a bunch of people are getting fired and the roster will be jettisoned. But winning can be intoxicating, especially when the lineup and rotation are loaded with stars: The Dodgers can envision a postseason in which a starting staff of Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto could propel the team to a second consecutive title.
But the Dodgers’ bullpen — heavily worked in the first months of this season because of injuries to the rotation — is in tatters due to injuries. Will the Dodgers’ push to become the first team to repeat as champions since the 1998-2000 Yankees drive them to swap valuable prospects for needed bullpen help before the deadline? We’re about to find out.
This is a team very well-suited for the postseason: The Cubs are a strong defensive team; they have a deep lineup around Kyle Tucker, in what might be Tucker’s only season in Chicago; and they put the ball in play.
They’ve got a good farm system, as well as an experienced president of baseball operations in Jed Hoyer. He was part of championships in Boston in 2004 and 2007 and was the Cubs’ general manager for their 2016 title. He and Theo Epstein made the Nomar Garciaparra deal at the trade deadline in 2004, in advance of Boston’s breakthrough title in 2004, and the all-in trade for Aroldis Chapman on the way to the Cubs’ first World Series win in 108 years in 2016.
But the X factor for Chicago in recent years is whether ownership operates with the same desperation — in the way that Astros owner Jim Crane did when he pushed through a Justin Verlander trade for Houston in August 2017.
This seems to be a good time for the Cubs to be desperate, to do anything to win another championship. Will a title be a priority for owner Tom Ricketts?
“I don’t know if that’s a good thing or not,” Schwarber said.
Ten days after lifting the National League to victory in the first All-Star Game swing-off, Schwarber keeps going deep. He hit a pair of two-run homers Friday night, with the first drive, his milestone hit, starting the comeback from a 2-0 deficit. He got the ball back after it was grabbed by a Phillies fan attending with his friends in Yankee Stadium’s right-center-field seats.
“I saw it on the video and then I see the dude tugging,” Schwarber said. “I’m like: ‘Oh, they all got Philly stuff on.’ That was cool.”
He met the trio after the game, gave an autographed ball to each and exchanged hugs. When he went to get a third ball to autograph, one of the three said he just wanted the potential free agent to re-sign with the Phillies.
“You show up to the field every single day trying to get a win at the end of the day, and I think our fans kind of latch on to that, right?” Schwarber said. “It’s been fantastic these last 3½ years, four years now. The support that we get from our fans and it means a lot to me that, you know, that they attach themselves to our team.”
Schwarber tied it at 2-2 in the fifth against Will Warren when he hit a 413-foot drive on a first-pitch fastball.
After J.T. Realmuto‘s three-run homer off Luke Weaver built a 6-3 lead in a four-run seventh and the Yankees closed within a run in the bottom half, Schwarber sent an Ian Hamilton fastball 380 feet into the right-field seats.
Schwarber reached 1,000 hits with eight more homers than McGwire. Schwarber has 36 homers this year, three shy of major league leader Cal Raleigh, and six homers in seven games since he was voted All-Star MVP. He has 33 multihomer games.
“I don’t know where we’d be without him,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson said. “Comes up with big hit after big hit after big hit. It’s just — it’s amazing.”
Schwarber, 32, is eligible for free agency this fall after completing a four-year, $79 million contract. He homered on all three of his swings in the All-Star Game tiebreaker, and when the second half began, Phillies managing partner John Middleton proclaimed: “We love him. We want to keep him.”
“He’s been an incredible force all season long,” Realmuto said. “What he’s meant to his team, his offense, it’s hard to put in words.”
A World Series champion for the 2016 Chicago Cubs, Schwarber has reached 35 homers in all four seasons with the Phillies. He’s batting .255 with 82 RBIs and a .960 OPS.
He also has almost as many home runs as singles (46).
Schwarber had not been aware he topped McGwire for most homers among 1,000 hits.
“I had no clue. I didn’t even know it was my 1,000th, to be honest with you,” he said.