UK economic growth could be “postponed” for two years amid a toxic cocktail of headwinds for confidence, according to a respected forecast which says further interest rate cuts may help lift the mood.
EY ITEM Club, which uses the Treasury’s economic modelling, downgraded expectations for output in both 2025 and 2026 in its latest report.
It warns of a direct hit from Donald Trump‘s trade war and from persistent high inflation in the UK economy.
But the forecast says the biggest impact would come from weaker sentiment among both households and businesses, given the surge in uncertainty and hits to global growth caused by the imposition of tariffs.
A “baseline” 10% tariff on imports from most countries around the world is in place while UK-produced steel, aluminium and cars are subject to duties of 25%.
Around 16% of all goods shipped abroad head for the United States typically but the study said that weaker demand for exports would likely hit that number.
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It forecast UK growth of 0.8% this year – down from the 1% it expected three months ago – and a figure of 0.9% for 2026.
That last figure represented a downgrade of 0.6 percentage points.
These are not the numbers the Treasury will want to see, coming in even lower than the International Monetary Fund’s downgrades last week, as it leads work on the government’s stated priority of securing economic growth.
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What IMF said about the economy
It has been accused of an own goal through the chancellor’s tax increases on business, which came into effect at the beginning of this month.
At the same time, households are grappling a surge in bills, including those for energy, water and council tax, which are threatening to depress spending power further.
Data on Friday showed a renewed slump in consumer confidence and sharp increases in the number of firms in “critical” financial distress and going to the wall.
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EY said the weaker global economic backdrop and spiralling levels of uncertainty would weigh on both families and businesses.
It warned the consumer mood remained “cautious” amid the continuing pressures on household budgets, further limiting demand for major purchases.
Anna Anthony, regional managing partner for EY UK & Ireland, said: “There had been signs that the economy was exceeding expectations in the opening months of 2025, but a combination of global trade disruption, uncertainty, and persistent inflation look likely to postpone the UK’s return to more moderate levels of growth.
“Businesses thrive on certainty, so it’s unsurprising that an unpredictable global market is translating into lower levels of business investment over the short term.
“While conditions remain challenging, there are still some grounds for optimism.
“The services-led UK economy is projected to see continued growth this year and gradual interest rate cuts should slowly bolster business and household spending.
“Over time, the unpredictable global landscape may offer opportunities for the UK to position itself as a stable, attractive destination for investment.”
The boss of Ryanair has told Sky News the president of the European Commission should “quit” if she can’t stop disruption caused by repeated French air traffic control strikes.
Michael O’Leary, the group chief executive of Europe’s largest airline by passenger numbers, said in an interview with Business Live that Ursula von der Leyen had failed to get to grips, at an EU level, with interruption to overflights following several recent disputes in France.
The latest action began on Thursday and is due to conclude later today, forcing thousands of flights to be delayed and cancelled through French airspace closures.
Mr O’Leary told presenter Darren McCaffrey that French domestic flights were given priority during ATC strikes and other nations, including Italy and Greece, had solved the problem through minimum service legislation.
He claimed that the vast majority of flights, cancelled over two days of action that began on Thursday, would have been able to operate under similar rules.
Mr O’Leary said of the EU’s role: “We continue to call on Ursula von der Leyen – why are you not protecting these overflights, why is the single market for air travel being disrupted by a tiny number of French air traffic controllers?
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Image: Ryanair has cancelled more than 400 flights over two days due to the action in France. File pic: PA
“All we get is a shrug of their shoulders and ‘there’s nothing we can do’. We point out, there is.”
He added: “We are calling on Ursula von der Leyen, who preaches about competitiveness and reforming Europe, if you’re not willing to protect or fix overflights then quit and let somebody more effective do the job.”
The strike is estimated, by the Airlines for Europe lobby group to have led to at least 1,500 cancelled flights, leaving 300,000 travellers unable to make their journeys.
Image: Michael O’Leary believes the EU can take action on competition grounds. Pic: PA
Ryanair itself had axed more than 400 flights so far, Mr O’Leary said. Rival easyJet said on Thursday that it had cancelled 274 services over the two days.
The beginning of July marks the start of the European summer holiday season.
The French civil aviation agency DGAC had already told airlines to cancel 40% of flights covering the three main Paris airports on Friday ahead of the walkout – a dispute over staffing levels and equipment quality.
Mr O’Leary described those safety issues as “nonsense” and said twhile the controllers had a right to strike, they did not have the right to close the sky.
DGAC has warned of delays and further severe disruption heading into the weekend.
Many planes and crews will be out of position.
Mr O’Leary is not alone in expressing his frustration.
The French transport minister Philippe Tabarot has denounced the action and the reasons for it.
“The idea is to disturb as many people as possible,” he said in an interview with CNews.
Passengers are being advised that if your flight is cancelled, the airline must either give you a refund or book you on an alternative flight.
If you have booked a return flight and the outbound leg is cancelled, you can claim the full cost of the return ticket back from your airline.
Ryanair and easyJet have cancelled hundreds of flights as a French air traffic controllers strike looms.
Ryanair, Europe’s largest airline by passenger numbers, said it had axed 170 services amid a plea by French authorities for airlines to reduce flights at Paris airports by 40% on Friday.
EasyJet said it was cancelling 274 flights during the action, which is due to begin later as part of a row over staffing numbers and ageing equipment.
The owner of British Airways, IAG, said it was planning to use larger aircraft to minimise disruption for its own passengers.
The industrial action is set to affect all flights using French airspace, leading to wider cancellations and delays across Europe and the wider world.
Ryanair said its cancellations, covering both days, would hit services to and from France, and also flights over the country to destinations such as the UK, Greece, Spain and Ireland.
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Group chief executive Michael O’Leary has campaigned for a European Union-led shake-up of air traffic control services in a bid to prevent such disruptive strikes, which have proved common in recent years.
He described the latest action as “recreational”.
Image: Michael O’Leary. Pic: Reuters
“Once again, European families are held to ransom by French air traffic controllers going on strike,” he said.
“It is not acceptable that overflights over French airspace en route to their destination are being cancelled/delayed as a result of yet another French ATC strike.
“It makes no sense and is abundantly unfair on EU passengers and families going on holidays.”
Ryanair is demanding the EU ensure that air traffic services are fully staffed for the first wave of daily departures, as well as to protect overflights during national strikes.
“These two splendid reforms would eliminate 90% of all ATC delays and cancellations, and protect EU passengers from these repeated and avoidable ATC disruptions due to yet another French ATC strike,” Mr O’Leary added.
The CBI has begun a search for a successor to Rupert Soames, its chairman, as it continues its recovery from the crisis which brought it to the brink of collapse in 2023.
Sky News has learnt that the business lobbying group’s nominations committee has engaged headhunters to assist with a hunt for its next corporate figurehead.
Mr Soames, the grandson of Sir Winston Churchill, was recruited by the CBI in late 2023 with the organisation lurching towards insolvency after an exodus of members.
The group’s handling of a sexual misconduct scandal saw it forced to secure emergency funding from a group of banks, even as it was frozen out of meetings with government ministers.
One prominent CBI member described Mr Soames on Thursday as the group’s “saviour”.
“Without his ability to bring members back, the organisation wouldn’t exist today,” they claimed.
Mr Soames and Rain Newton-Smith, the CBI chief executive, have partly restored its influence in Whitehall, although many doubt that it will ever be able to credibly reclaim its former status as ‘the voice of British business’.
Its next chair, who is also likely to be drawn from a leading listed company boardroom, will take over from Mr Soames early next year.
Egon Zehnder International is handling the search for the CBI.
“The CBI chair’s term typically runs for two years and Rupert Soames will end his term in early 2026,” a CBI spokesperson said.
“In line with good governance, we have begun the search for a successor to ensure continuity and a smooth transition.”