Reform has put the two traditional parties on notice – and we don’t know where this ends
British politics is changing after a night that saw a sensational, record-breaking victory by Nigel Farage in the North West.
That’s the conclusion of a nail-biting night that delivered more drama than expected and gives strong indications – though not yet certainty – about how politics is being reshaped for a new era, which means greater political unpredictability and challenges for the main parties in highly uncomfortable ways.
The significance of this morning’s results will be argued over for years to come.
Reform beats Labour by six votes; follow Politics latest
Hours after counting began, there are two big themes for definite.
The first is that Reform UK proved they continue to evolve into a mature and potentially lethal political force.
Across the country they are now winning votes in Labour areas as well as Conservative, and they have run both parties close in a number of key contests.
They achieved vote shares of 40% or more, twice their share at the General Election. They even won a seat from the Liberal Democrats.
Read more:
Mayoral election results as they come in
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
First Reform UK mayoral win
The second is that while Labour was able to deliver a number of physiologically important mayoral wins – often by the smallest of margins – they need to go up a gear to fight.
Labour’s vote declined but did not collapse and they are still able to get “their people” to the ballot box from Bristol to Tyneside.
But in the most important battle of all – the North West seat of Runcorn and Helsby – they could not, and Reform UK pulled off a stunning triumph, taking the 49th-safest Labour seat in the country.
Karen Shore, Labour’s losing candidate in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election. Pic: PA
Nigel Farage and the team had poured huge amounts of time and resource into the seat, with multiple visits and the chairman Zia Yusuf on the ground to direct operations. It paid off.
By contrast, Sir Keir Starmer did not turn up once. Number 10 will be asking itself today whether a prime ministerial visit could have been worth those six precious votes.
It is true to say that politics has become so unpredictable because neither party knew what was about to happen.
The evening started with Reform UK hinting at victory, but by 2am Labour was quietly confident. By 3am, it had turned out neither really knew, and a full recount was launched after Reform UK was four votes ahead. After the recount, Labour had lost by six.
This is the moment Reform UK proved itself a protest party for Labour voters as well as Tories.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
‘Keir is making life easy’ for Reform
Significance for Reform is immense
The significance is immense. At last year’s general election, there were over 150 seats where the Tories lost because Reform UK got more votes than the margin by which the Conservatives lost to the winner.
Now this suggests that Reform UK has the capacity to mete out the same damage to Labour and puts the two traditional parties on notice that they face a threat.
Labour has already shown itself willing to bend because of the threat of Reform UK, slashing the aid budget to pay for more military spending and slashing Whitehall with a promise of more to come.
The question is, how much further can Labour go in this direction? In some of the council by-elections there was already evidence of bleeding to the Greens – a sign that more left-leaning one-time Labour supporters are deserting the party because they think it no longer represents them.
What course does this Number 10 chart now? A slew of announcements on immigration and slashing red tape – and risk a greater schism on the left – or end up in the mushy middle and pleasing no one? The choices are unappetising.
Robert Jenrick featured in a leaked recording about a Tory ‘coalition’ with Reform UK
Then there is the challenge for the Tories.
For those hoping for a non-aggression pact on the right, today’s results suggest that Reform UK can credibly question whether they are a party of the right, given their success in Labour areas.
This is a complicating factor. Where does the logic heard in the leaked recording by Robert Jenrick – brought up by Nigel Farage this morning – take us now?
There will be those who point to UKIP’s success in the early 2010s and lack of impact in the 2015 election, and say that there is no certainty that Reform UK will fly.
Of course, there is a chance they may fade, particularly if their infighting gets worse.
But UKIP never achieved a breakthrough on the left like Reform UK has done to date, and its impact may never actually be in the seats that it wins.
Arguably in that early 2010 period, Farage and UKIP left an even bigger legacy without ever holding power: a Brexit referendum which he went on to win.
There are now lots of paths for what Farage has started to change Britain. We do not know where this ends.
A man has admitted arson after a major fire at an MP’s constituency office.
Joshua Oliver, 28, pleaded guilty to starting the fire which destroyed the office of Labour MP Sharon Hodgson, at Vermont House in Washington, Tyne and Wear.
The fire also wrecked a small charity for people with very rare genetic diseases and an NHS mental health service for veterans.
The guilty plea was entered at Newcastle Magistrates’ Court on the basis that it was reckless rather than intentional.
Hodgson, who has been an MP since 2005, winning her seat again in 2019. Pic: Reuters
The Crown did not accept that basis of plea.
Oliver, of no fixed address, had been living in a tent nearby, the court heard.
Northumbria Police previously said it was “alerted to a fire at a premises on Woodland Terrace in the Washington area” shortly after 12.20am on Thursday.
“Emergency services attended and no one is reported to have been injured in the incident,” it added.
Drone footage from the scene showed extensive damage to the building.
Read more:
Weather warning in place for Sunday
Migrant hotel critics meet asylum seekers
A spokesperson for the Crown Prosecution Service said: “Our prosecutors have worked to establish that there is sufficient evidence to bring the case to trial and that it is in the public interest to pursue criminal proceedings.
“We have worked closely with Northumbria Police as they carried out their investigation.”
Oliver was remanded in custody and will appear at Newcastle Crown Court on Tuesday, 14 October.
Dozens of people have gathered at a Sikh temple to attend an emergency meeting after police in the West Midlands said they are investigating the rape of a woman as a “racially motivated attack”.
The victim, reported to be a British-born Sikh aged in her 20s, told officers a racist remark was made to her during the attack in Oldbury, which was reported to police just before 8.30am on Tuesday.
The Sikh Federation (UK) said the perpetrators allegedly told the woman during the attack: “You don’t belong in this country, get out.”
Jas Singh, principal advisor to the Sikh Federation (UK), was among the group of faith and community leaders responsible for holding the meeting at the Guru Nanak Gurdwara temple in Smethwick, a few miles from Oldbury, following concerns within the community.
“I think if you look at it in the context of the climate, it makes it even more worrying because there is a trend of hatred… the targeting of migrants,” he said.
“Ultimately, what that means is the targeting of people’s skin colour, and as Sikhs we have the most distinct, unique identity,” he added.
“We bear the brunt of all prejudice and ignorance, and hate.”
Principal advisor to the Sikh Federation (UK) Jas Singh
Similar sentiments were raised at the meeting, with many horrified by the reports of the sexual assault as well as concerns about their own safety.
“People are trying to divide us,” said a woman in her 30s, who did not want to be named but said, as a Sikh woman, she wanted to be present to have her voice heard.
She was not only referencing the sexual assault but also what she believes has been an increase in overt discrimination.
“Let’s call it what it is, this is racism,” she told the meeting, as she broke down in tears.
Reverend Nick Ross, from Smethwick’s Holy Trinity Church, was also in attendance at the emergency meeting.
He commented on “offensive” graffiti that had been left on the side of the wall of the Sikh temple, while saying his Anglican church had also been defaced.
“We cannot just ignore it, it will go on and it will build, and there will be incidents like this,” he said, referencing racial tensions across the country.
Read more from Sky News:
Migrant hotel critics meet asylum seekers
Motel manager beheaded in washing machine row
Faith and community leaders organised the meeting at the Sikh temple
Police are still trying to identify the perpetrators of the attack and want to speak to anyone who may have seen two white men in the area.
The first is described as having a shaved head and a heavy build, and was wearing a dark sweatshirt with gloves on, and the second was reportedly wearing a grey top with a silver zip.
Chief Superintendent Kim Madill, of Sandwell Police, said: “We are working really hard to identify those responsible, with CCTV, forensic and other inquiries well under way.
“We fully understand the anger and worry that this has caused, and I am speaking to people in the community today to reassure them that we are doing everything we can to identify and arrest those responsible.
“Incidents like this are incredibly rare, but people can expect to see extra patrols in the area.”
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment11 months agoHere are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024