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SECAUCUS, N.J. — The New York Islanders won the NHL draft lottery on Monday night, moving up 10 spots to make the league’s first live televised drawing a memorable one.

“It was dramatic,” NHL commissioner Gary Bettman told ESPN after the drawing. “It worked the way it was supposed to in terms of the process. But the result was unpredictable.”

The Islanders had a 3.5% chance of securing the first pick entering the draft, the 10th-best odds out of the 16 teams in the lottery. It’s the fifth time in franchise history that the Islanders will select first, and the first time since they picked center John Tavares in 2009. Other first overall picks for New York were forward Billy Harris (1972), defenseman Denis Potvin (1973) and goalie Rick DiPietro (2000).

“The hockey gods smiled on us. I can’t tell you how thrilled I am for Islander fans, for our ownership, for the entire Islander organization,” Islanders director of pro scouting Ken Morrow said.

The Islanders’ jump from 10th to first is the biggest involving a team winning the No. 1 selection. It comes after the last-place team won the lottery to retain the first pick in four of the past five years.

Boston College forward James Hagens, a Long Island native, is one of the top prospects available in the 2025 NHL draft, scheduled for L.A. Live’s Peacock Theater in Los Angeles on June 27-28.

Two drawings were held, the first to determine the No. 1 pick followed by the No. 2 selection. Only the bottom 11 teams in the standings were eligible to land the first pick due to a rule restricting teams to moving up no more than 10 spots in the draft order. Each drawing selected a four-number combination that had been assigned to a team before the draft, with balls drawn at 30-second increments. There were 1,001 possible combinations.

The San Jose Sharks entered the day with the best odds, 18.5%, to win the lottery and a 25.5% chance of landing the No. 1 choice for the second straight season, having selected center Macklin Celebrini first in 2024. Celebrini joined Montreal defenseman Lane Hutson and Calgary Flames goalie Dustin Wolf as finalists for the Calder Trophy for NHL rookie of the year, as announced on Monday.

The Sharks settled for the second pick in 2025 after the Utah Hockey Club won the second lottery draw, moving up from 14th to No. 4 overall. The Chicago Blackhawks had the second-best chances to win the lottery and will pick third. The Nashville Predators had no lottery luck — despite having the third-best odds, they drop to the fifth pick.

The drama was amplified in this season’s lottery as the NHL televised the drawing live from the NHL Network studios for the first time in the event’s 30-year history. Previously, the drawing was held in a sequestered room at the facility, with deputy commissioner Bill Daly revealing each draft position by flipping over a stack of cards on television.

“It’s basically the same thing that I do when we’d pretape it and Bill would reveal it. For me, it’s the same. It’s a little different for Bill. He doesn’t have to flip the cards over now,” Bettman said.

The NHL decided to make the drawing live because it drew more fan bases into the excitement of the first overall pick than the previous format. Before the Islanders won the lottery, seven teams still had a shot at the first overall selection: The Blackhawks, Philadelphia Flyers, Pittsburgh Penguins and the Islanders each had two balls that would win them the lottery, while the Sharks, Seattle Kraken and Buffalo Sabres each had one.

“It gave those teams and those fan bases hope going into that final. To me, that was what this was all about: To keep hope alive all the way until the end,” Steve Mayer, the NHL’s chief content officer, said.

There was plenty of drama before the final ball was drawn, too. The NHL partnered with SportsMEDIA Technology (SMT) to create real-time odds adjustments after every ball was selected. When No. 7 was selected as the first ball in the first drawing, the Sharks’ odds spiked to 20.6%, while the Calgary Flames were eliminated. When No. 11 was taken second, the Sharks went up to 24.3% while four other teams were eliminated. When No. 12 was selected third, that’s when things took a turn: The Sharks’ chances dropped to 9.1%, the Predators and New York Rangers were eliminated and suddenly both the Penguins (9th) and the Islanders (10th) had an 18.2% chance at the first overall pick.

“This was the idea from the beginning. If we’re going to do this, we have to know after the first ball what the percentages are and who’s out. We need to know after the second ball and the third. We need to know going into the last ball what every team needs,” Mayer said.

“I said, ‘Can somebody way smarter than me figure this out?’ And that’s what they end up doing.”

At last year’s draft lottery, the NHL did a very rough run-through of what a live lottery draw might look like. Mayer sent that video to Bettman and Daly before the live broadcast as a way to present the run of show, with MLB Network employees having stood in for the commissioner and deputy commissioner.

Were there any concerns? “Steve said a hundred percent guaranteed, no problem. And his track record on putting on events, outdoor games, All-Star Games and the draft is impeccable. So we rely on his assurance,” Bettman said.

The NHL was pleased with the event after its completion, both in creating a more dramatic viewing experience and in the technology working. Bettman said there would be a debriefing among the league’s staffers but anticipated the format would return next season. That’s when the drama will really get amplified, when 17-year-old phenom Gavin McKenna of Medicine Hat in the Western Hockey League is expected to be the first pick.

“All the lotteries are important, and they all get the same treatment, in terms of how seriously we treat them,” Bettman said. “We can be a little lighthearted talking about how this [live drawing] came about, but in the final analysis, we had to get comfortable that this was a process with unquestionable integrity.”

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No ‘clear-cut’ Cup favorite as Panthers eye No. 3

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No 'clear-cut' Cup favorite as Panthers eye No. 3

Bookmakers across the sportsbook marketplace don’t see a consensus Stanley Cup favorite as the Florida Panthers gear up to attempt a very rare NHL three-peat.

The Carolina Hurricanes, Colorado Avalanche and Edmonton Oilers are the co-favorites (+800) at ESPN BET, with the Dallas Stars, Vegas Golden Knights and Panthers at +900, and the Tampa Bay Lightning at +1000. However, no major American sportsbook has the same combination of solo or co-favorites, with Florida and Vegas taking the top billing at some shops.

“The way I look at it, there’s no real clear-cut, short favorite,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. “This year, it’s more wide open at the top, and then you have a whole second tier of teams that are in that 20-to-40 range. There’s another 10 teams there. Could the Stanley Cup winner come from there? Absolutely. But the top tier has eight teams that we believe will contend for the title.”

The last preseason Stanley Cup favorite to win it all was Colorado (+600) in the 2021-22 season.

The Panthers opened as one of the favorites to win the Cup immediately following their second straight championship. They were +600 solo favorites by mid-September following offseason contract extensions for Aaron Ekblad, Brad Marchand and Sam Bennett — despite offseason surgery for superstar Matthew Tkachuk, who is expected back before the new year.

However, a training camp knee injury to captain Aleksander Barkov, which is expected to keep him out for the entire regular season, if not longer, derailed Florida’s Stanley Cup lines at most books. Several operations immediately dropped the team’s championship odds, with ESPN BET briefly lengthening them to +1000.

Still, action on the Cats has remained robust, with ESPN BET reporting its highest portion of bets (17.1%) and handle (21.4%) backing them to three-peat, while BetMGM says the team’s 13.8% handle is the second-highest in the market. Some bookmakers, such as Karry Shreeve, the head of hockey at Caesars Sportsbook, refused to even dethrone the Panthers as favorites, noting that Barkov and Tkachuk’s injuries have more effect on the team’s regular-season odds.

“We’re not ready to drop them in price significantly, at least for the Stanley Cup, just because I’m not convinced who’s going to fill their spot [in the playoffs],” Shreeve told ESPN. “So long as Florida’s getting into the playoffs again, as far as right now, not knowing anything else, they’re still, to me, the favorite. Not by a lot, but still a favorite, and not a team we’re willing to push out in price just yet.”

Several sportsbooks, including DraftKings and ESPN BET, are instead high on the Hurricanes, even though bettors are backing them at a relatively low clip in terms of both the number of tickets and money wagered.

“Carolina is one of the most consistently dominant teams we have seen in recent years, having recouped some talent over the summer as they look to make another deep run,” ESPN BET senior director Adrian Horton said by email. “Patrons will likely have their postseason struggles in mind, but it took the Panthers at full steam to eliminate them. We fully expect Carolina to be back battling in the playoffs.”

In the favorites tier, bettors are more focused on the Avalanche, who have garnered the third-highest handle at BetMGM and ESPN BET. Beyond the first tier, many patrons are keying on the Toronto Maple Leafs (+1600), who have taken the most tickets and money at BetMGM.

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Expert picks for the 2025-26 NHL season: Stanley Cup, division winners, awards

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Expert picks for the 2025-26 NHL season: Stanley Cup, division winners, awards

The 2025-26 NHL season begins Tuesday with a tripleheader on ESPN: Chicago BlackhawksFlorida Panthers at 5 p.m. ET (including the Stanley Cup banner-raising), Pittsburgh PenguinsNew York Rangers at 8 p.m., and Colorado AvalancheLos Angeles Kings at 10:30 p.m.

But we’re looking beyond those contests.

Will the Panthers three-peat as Stanley Cup champions? Which teams will finish the season atop the division standings? And which players will take home the major individual awards?

We’ve gathered our cross-platform ESPN hockey family together to predict the winners of each division, along with the Stanley Cup champion and the players who will win all of the hardware.

Dive deep on all 32 teams
Lapsed fan’s guide to the season
Bold predictions for every club

Fantasy hockey hub page
Goalie mask guide for 2025-26

Atlantic Division

Sean Allen: Maple Leafs
John Buccigross: Lightning
Stormy Buonantony: Lightning
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Maple Leafs
Sach Chandan: Lightning
Meghan Chayka: Lightning
Ryan S. Clark: Lightning
Ray Ferraro: Lightning
Emily Kaplan: Lightning
Tim Kavanagh: Senators
Rachel Kryshak: Lightning
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Lightning
Steve Levy: Maple Leafs
Vince Masi: Lightning
Victoria Matiash: Lightning
Sean McDonough: Lightning
AJ Mleczko: Lightning
Mike Monaco: Lightning
Arda Öcal: Lightning
T.J. Oshie: Lightning
Kristen Shilton: Maple Leafs
P.K. Subban: Lightning
John Tortorella: Panthers
Bob Wischusen: Lightning
Greg Wyshynski: Lightning

Totals: Lightning (19), Maple Leafs (4), Senators (1), Panthers (1)


Metropolitan Division

Sean Allen: Devils
John Buccigross: Hurricanes
Stormy Buonantony: Hurricanes
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Hurricanes
Sach Chandan: Devils
Meghan Chayka: Hurricanes
Ryan S. Clark: Hurricanes
Ray Ferraro: Hurricanes
Emily Kaplan: Hurricanes
Tim Kavanagh: Devils
Rachel Kryshak: Hurricanes
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Hurricanes
Steve Levy: Devils
Vince Masi: Hurricanes
Victoria Matiash: Devils
Sean McDonough: Rangers
AJ Mleczko: Hurricanes
Mike Monaco: Hurricanes
Arda Öcal: Devils
T.J. Oshie: Capitals
Kristen Shilton: Hurricanes
P.K. Subban: Capitals
John Tortorella: Devils
Bob Wischusen: Hurricanes
Greg Wyshynski: Hurricanes

Totals: Hurricanes (15), Devils (7), Capitals (2), Rangers (1)


Central Division

Sean Allen: Stars
John Buccigross: Avalanche
Stormy Buonantony: Avalanche
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Avalanche
Sach Chandan: Avalanche
Meghan Chayka: Avalanche
Ryan S. Clark: Avalanche
Ray Ferraro: Stars
Emily Kaplan: Avalanche
Tim Kavanagh: Avalanche
Rachel Kryshak: Stars
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Stars
Steve Levy: Stars
Vince Masi: Avalanche
Victoria Matiash: Stars
Sean McDonough: Stars
AJ Mleczko: Stars
Mike Monaco: Avalanche
Arda Öcal: Stars
T.J. Oshie: Stars
Kristen Shilton: Stars
P.K. Subban: Wild
John Tortorella: Wild
Bob Wischusen: Avalanche
Greg Wyshynski: Avalanche

Totals: Avalanche (12), Stars (11), Wild (2)


Pacific Division

Sean Allen: Oilers
John Buccigross: Oilers
Stormy Buonantony: Golden Knights
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Golden Knights
Sach Chandan: Golden Knights
Meghan Chayka: Golden Knights
Ryan S. Clark: Golden Knights
Ray Ferraro: Golden Knights
Emily Kaplan: Golden Knights
Tim Kavanagh: Golden Knights
Rachel Kryshak: Oilers
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Golden Knights
Steve Levy: Kings
Vince Masi: Golden Knights
Victoria Matiash: Golden Knights
Sean McDonough: Oilers
AJ Mleczko: Golden Knights
Mike Monaco: Oilers
Arda Öcal: Golden Knights
T.J. Oshie: Golden Knights
Kristen Shilton: Golden Knights
P.K. Subban: Oilers
John Tortorella: Golden Knights
Bob Wischusen: Golden Knights
Greg Wyshynski: Oilers

Totals: Golden Knights (17), Oilers (7), Kings (1)


Stanley Cup

Sean Allen: Panthers
John Buccigross: Hurricanes
Stormy Buonantony: Golden Knights
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Jets
Sach Chandan: Avalanche
Meghan Chayka: Avalanche
Ryan S. Clark: Stars
Ray Ferraro: Golden Knights
Emily Kaplan: Panthers
Tim Kavanagh: Stars
Rachel Kryshak: Stars
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Golden Knights
Steve Levy: Kings
Vince Masi: Avalanche
Victoria Matiash: Golden Knights
Sean McDonough: Oilers
AJ Mleczko: Avalanche
Mike Monaco: Oilers
Arda Öcal: Maple Leafs
T.J. Oshie: Oilers
Kristen Shilton: Stars
John Tortorella: Devils
Bob Wischusen: Panthers
Greg Wyshynski: Avalanche

Totals: Avalanche (5), Golden Knights (4), Stars (4), Panthers (3), Oilers (3), Hurricanes (1), Jets (1), Kings (1), Maple Leafs (1), Devils (1)


Hart Trophy (MVP)

Sean Allen: Kirill Kaprizov
John Buccigross: Connor McDavid
Stormy Buonantony: Jack Eichel
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Connor McDavid
Sach Chandan: Nathan MacKinnon
Meghan Chayka: Nathan MacKinnon
Ryan S. Clark: Kirill Kaprizov
Ray Ferraro: Nikita Kucherov
Emily Kaplan: Nathan MacKinnon
Tim Kavanagh: Nathan MacKinnon
Rachel Kryshak: Connor McDavid
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Nikita Kucherov
Steve Levy: Connor McDavid
Vince Masi: Connor McDavid
Victoria Matiash: Nikita Kucherov
Sean McDonough: Connor McDavid
AJ Mleczko: Connor McDavid
Mike Monaco: Connor McDavid
Arda Öcal: Connor McDavid
T.J. Oshie: Connor McDavid
Kristen Shilton: Auston Matthews
P.K. Subban: Kirill Kaprizov
John Tortorella: Kirill Kaprizov
Bob Wischusen: Connor McDavid
Greg Wyshynski: Nathan MacKinnon

Totals: McDavid (11), MacKinnon (5), Kaprizov (4), Kucherov (3), Eichel (1), Matthews (1)


Art Ross Trophy (points leader)

Sean Allen: Connor McDavid
John Buccigross: Connor McDavid
Stormy Buonantony: Nikita Kucherov
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Connor McDavid
Sach Chandan: Nikita Kucherov
Meghan Chayka: Connor McDavid
Ryan S. Clark: Mitch Marner
Ray Ferraro: Connor McDavid
Emily Kaplan: Nathan MacKinnon
Tim Kavanagh: Nikita Kucherov
Rachel Kryshak: Connor McDavid
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Nikita Kucherov
Steve Levy: Kirill Kaprizov
Vince Masi: Connor McDavid
Victoria Matiash: Nikita Kucherov
Sean McDonough: Connor McDavid
AJ Mleczko: Mitch Marner
Mike Monaco: Connor McDavid
Arda Öcal: Connor McDavid
T.J. Oshie: Nikita Kucherov
Kristen Shilton: Nathan MacKinnon
P.K. Subban: Connor McDavid
John Tortorella: Kirill Kaprizov
Bob Wischusen: Connor McDavid
Greg Wyshynski: Nathan MacKinnon

Totals: McDavid (12), Kucherov (6), MacKinnon (3), Marner (2), Kaprizov (2)


Rocket Richard Trophy (goals leader)

Sean Allen: Auston Matthews
John Buccigross: Auston Matthews
Stormy Buonantony: Connor McDavid
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Auston Matthews
Sach Chandan: Leon Draisaitl
Meghan Chayka: Leon Draisaitl
Ryan S. Clark: Nikita Kucherov
Ray Ferraro: Leon Draisaitl
Emily Kaplan: Leon Draisaitl
Tim Kavanagh: Kirill Kaprizov
Rachel Kryshak: Leon Draisaitl
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Auston Matthews
Steve Levy: Leon Draisaitl
Vince Masi: Brayden Point
Victoria Matiash: Auston Matthews
Sean McDonough: Leon Draisaitl
AJ Mleczko: Auston Matthews
Mike Monaco: Auston Matthews
Arda Öcal: Auston Matthews
T.J. Oshie: Leon Draisaitl
Kristen Shilton: Auston Matthews
P.K. Subban: Jake Guentzel
John Tortorella: Connor McDavid
Bob Wischusen: Auston Matthews
Greg Wyshynski: Leon Draisaitl

Totals: Matthews (10), Draisaitl (9), McDavid (2), Kucherov (1), Kaprizov (1), Point (1), Guentzel (1)


Norris Trophy (best defenseman)

Sean Allen: Cale Makar
John Buccigross: Cale Makar
Stormy Buonantony: Shea Theodore
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Cale Makar
Sach Chandan: Zach Werenski
Meghan Chayka: Cale Makar
Ryan S. Clark: Cale Makar
Ray Ferraro: Quinn Hughes
Emily Kaplan: Zach Werenski
Tim Kavanagh: Quinn Hughes
Rachel Kryshak: Cale Makar
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Cale Makar
Steve Levy: Quinn Hughes
Vince Masi: Quinn Hughes
Victoria Matiash: Quinn Hughes
Sean McDonough: Cale Makar
AJ Mleczko: Quinn Hughes
Mike Monaco: Cale Makar
Arda Öcal: Cale Makar
T.J. Oshie: Cale Makar
Kristen Shilton: Quinn Hughes
P.K. Subban: Lane Hutson
John Tortorella: Quinn Hughes
Bob Wischusen: Cale Makar
Greg Wyshynski: Rasmus Dahlin

Totals: Cale Makar (12), Hughes (8), Werenski (2), Theodore (1), Hutson (1), Dahlin (1)


Vezina Trophy (best goaltender)

Sean Allen: Jake Oettinger
John Buccigross: Jake Oettinger
Stormy Buonantony: Jake Oettinger
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Connor Hellebuyck
Sach Chandan: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Meghan Chayka: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Ryan S. Clark: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Ray Ferraro: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Emily Kaplan: Jake Oettinger
Tim Kavanagh: Jacob Markstrom
Rachel Kryshak: Igor Shesterkin
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Steve Levy: Jake Oettinger
Vince Masi: Linus Ullmark
Victoria Matiash: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Sean McDonough: Igor Shesterkin
AJ Mleczko: Jake Oettinger
Mike Monaco: Jake Oettinger
Arda Öcal: Andrei Vasilevskiy
T.J. Oshie: Connor Hellebuyck
Kristen Shilton: Igor Shesterkin
P.K. Subban: Andrei Vasilevskiy
John Tortorella: Sergei Bobrovsky
Bob Wischusen: Igor Shesterkin
Greg Wyshynski: Andrei Vasilevskiy

Totals: Vasilevskiy (9), Oettinger (7), Shesterkin (4), Markstrom (1), Ullmark (1), Bobrovsky (1)


Calder Trophy (rookie of the year)

Sean Allen: Alexander Nikishin
John Buccigross: Ivan Demidov
Stormy Buonantony: Ivan Demidov
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Ivan Demidov
Sach Chandan: Michael Misa
Meghan Chayka: Ivan Demidov
Ryan S. Clark: Ivan Demidov
Ray Ferraro: Ivan Demidov
Emily Kaplan: Zeev Buium
Tim Kavanagh: Jimmy Snuggerud
Rachel Kryshak: Ivan Demidov
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Ivan Demidov
Steve Levy: Zeev Buium
Vince Masi: Jimmy Snuggerud
Victoria Matiash: Jimmy Snuggerud
Sean McDonough: Ivan Demidov
AJ Mleczko: Zeev Buium
Mike Monaco: Ivan Demidov
Arda Öcal: Yaroslav Askarov
T.J. Oshie: Ryan Leonard
Kristen Shilton: Ivan Demidov
P.K. Subban: Matthew Schaefer
John Tortorella: Ryan Leonard
Bob Wischusen: Ivan Demidov
Greg Wyshynski: Alexander Nikishin

Totals: Demidov (12), Buium (3), Snuggerud (3), Nikishin (2), Leonard (2), Misa (1), Askarov (1), Schaefer (1)

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Breaking down Aaron Judge’s early playoff performance: A productive start or another October disappointment?

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Breaking down Aaron Judge's early playoff performance: A productive start or another October disappointment?

In case you hadn’t heard, Aaron Judge entered the 2025 MLB playoffs with a checkered history of October results compared with his stellar regular-season résumé.

For his career, Judge’s OPS is 250 points lower in the postseason than in the regular season (the average regular-season-to-playoff OPS dropoff for hitters in 2024 was 18 points), and his struggles on the biggest stage have become a talking point nearly every October.

After his .184/.344/.408 slash line during the Yankees’ 2024 postseason run, Judge is hitting objectively well in the playoffs this year — posting a 1.024 OPS and collecting an MLB-leading eight hits in his first five games. But he isn’t hitting for much power, with just one extra-base hit (a double) in 21 plate appearances, and his team enters Game 3 of the American League Division Series on the brink of elimination.

As the Yankees try to battle back against the Toronto Blue Jays, we dug deep into each of Judge’s first 18 at-bats (and three walks) to see what we can learn about his October so far.

How is Judge being pitched in the playoffs? Is it different from the regular season? Why isn’t he hitting for power? Is it bad luck? And where could his postseason go from here — if the Yankees can stick around long enough for him to find his home run stroke?


How left-handed pitchers are approaching Judge

Judge vs. lefties in playoff career: 42 PA, .400/.500/.714, 19% K, 17% BB, 3 HR
Judge vs. lefties this postseason: 8 PA, .500/.500/1.125, 13% K, 0% BB, 0 HR

Each pitcher has different strengths, but there are some clear trends that lefties are following when attacking Judge this month.

The game plan goes something like this: throw hard stuff (four-seam fastballs, sinkers, cutters) on his hands, largely down, then mix in softer stuff to keep him honest, locating those pitches down and on the corners — where he is least likely to do damage. If you miss, miss outside of the zone, not toward the middle. Don’t be afraid to nibble around the outside of the zone and live to fight another day.

That’s a solid plan against almost any hitter, but in this case, it means going hard inside against a 6-foot-7 slugger whose relative weaknesses will always include covering the plate against good stuff.

It’s telling that the two softer-throwing lefties Judge faced (Boston’s Connelly Early and Toronto’s Justin Bruihl) threw two fastballs out of their 10 total pitches and both missed off the plate inside, one missing so far inside that it hit Judge. Garrett Crochet, Aroldis Chapman, and Brendon Little were much more aggressive, likely because of their better fastballs.


How right-handed pitchers are approaching Judge

Judge vs. righties in playoff career: 241 PA, .192/.304/.409, 34% K, 13% BB, 13 HR
Judge vs. righties this postseason: 13 PA, .400/.538/.400, 23% K, 15% BB, 0 HR

Judge has faced eight different righties this postseason, and those pitchers vary vastly in their pitch mix and the quality of their stuff, but right-handed pitchers seem to be using a decision tree to craft their game plan against him.

If the righty’s top offspeed pitch is a breaking ball (slider, sweeper, curve) then he is throwing that as often as he can while locating it down and away — and mixing it with fastballs inside to keep Judge from leaning over the plate. Here’s a look at Judge vs. breaking balls only.

If the righty’s top secondary pitch is a splitter — such as Toronto’s Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage in the first two games of the ALDS — then he is mixing splitters and sliders away with some fastballs that are mostly targeted inside.

But no matter their style, one common goal for all of these pitchers is not to make a mistake over the plate!


How does Judge’s regular-season history factor into this plan?

Though Judge’s October struggles have become a narrative over his career, any team setting up its pitching strategy for a series will game plan for the two-time American League MVP with a career 1.028 OPS and 368 home runs rather than treating him like the player with a .223 average and .787 OPS in 63 career playoff games.

And that starts with keeping the ball away from where Judge can do the most damage.

During the 2025 regular season, Judge faced 176 pitches (essentially one pitch every four plate appearances) that qualified as in the middle-middle zone — or, in more general speak, right down the middle.

Against those pitches, Judge had a 1.630 OPS and 15 homers, both figures were second best in baseball.

This is where Judge ranked, among all qualified hitters in MLB this season, measured by xwOBA:

  • Second best vs. middle-middle pitches

  • Best vs. pitches in the heart of the zone (a larger part of the strike zone than middle-middle)

  • Best per pitch vs. fastballs, second in overall value

  • Best per pitch and overall vs. sinkers

  • Best per pitch and overall vs. cutters

Imagine getting this scouting report as a pitcher before you face Judge in a playoff game. I wouldn’t throw him anything down the middle, either.


How Judge is handling pitches he should crush

Now for the twist: Judge has faced seven pitches in the playoffs that were in the middle-middle zone (one pitch every three plate appearances, so slightly more frequently than the regular season).

So far this postseason, Judge hasn’t put one of those pitches in play. He swung at five — fouled off four and whiffed at another — and took two middle-middle pitches for strikes.

This isn’t a trend I tried to identify in my research because the small sample means one home run on a center-cut ball would poke a hole in it, but in watching all of his playoff at-bats, I made too many of this sort of note: “target was [zone direction] corner, missed target to the middle of the zone, [nothing bad happened to the pitcher].”

So, yes, it’s a small sample, but October baseball is won and lost on small samples. Judge is getting pitched roughly how he was in the regular season (actually even a bit more hitter-friendly), but he hasn’t replicated his regular-season damage, especially when it comes to punishing mistakes thrown down the middle. Judge has performed basically the same (chase rate, xwOBA, etc.) as the regular season against noncenter-cut pitches, so not taking advantage of these mistakes is accounting for his dip in power in the playoffs this year.

Over 162 games, anyone putting up an OPS over 1.000 is having a very productive season — even if it’s all coming from singles and a few doubles — but the heat has been turned up with the Yankees facing elimination, and the offense needs to deliver, with Judge at the heart of it. This team needs Judge to punish mistakes and create some souvenirs or he is at risk of having another October disappointment added to his résumé.

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