SECAUCUS, N.J. — The New York Islanders won the NHL draft lottery on Monday night, moving up 10 spots to make the league’s first live televised drawing a memorable one.
“It was dramatic,” NHL commissioner Gary Bettman told ESPN after the drawing. “It worked the way it was supposed to in terms of the process. But the result was unpredictable.”
The Islanders had a 3.5% chance of securing the first pick entering the draft, the 10th-best odds out of the 16 teams in the lottery. It’s the fifth time in franchise history that the Islanders will select first, and the first time since they picked center John Tavares in 2009. Other first overall picks for New York were forward Billy Harris (1972), defenseman Denis Potvin (1973) and goalie Rick DiPietro (2000).
“The hockey gods smiled on us. I can’t tell you how thrilled I am for Islander fans, for our ownership, for the entire Islander organization,” Islanders director of pro scouting Ken Morrow said.
The Islanders’ jump from 10th to first is the biggest involving a team winning the No. 1 selection. It comes after the last-place team won the lottery to retain the first pick in four of the past five years.
Boston College forward James Hagens, a Long Island native, is one of the top prospects available in the 2025 NHL draft, scheduled for L.A. Live’s Peacock Theater in Los Angeles on June 27-28.
Two drawings were held, the first to determine the No. 1 pick followed by the No. 2 selection. Only the bottom 11 teams in the standings were eligible to land the first pick due to a rule restricting teams to moving up no more than 10 spots in the draft order. Each drawing selected a four-number combination that had been assigned to a team before the draft, with balls drawn at 30-second increments. There were 1,001 possible combinations.
The San Jose Sharks entered the day with the best odds, 18.5%, to win the lottery and a 25.5% chance of landing the No. 1 choice for the second straight season, having selected center Macklin Celebrini first in 2024. Celebrini joined Montreal defenseman Lane Hutson and Calgary Flames goalie Dustin Wolf as finalists for the Calder Trophy for NHL rookie of the year, as announced on Monday.
The Sharks settled for the second pick in 2025 after the Utah Hockey Club won the second lottery draw, moving up from 14th to No. 4 overall. The Chicago Blackhawks had the second-best chances to win the lottery and will pick third. The Nashville Predators had no lottery luck — despite having the third-best odds, they drop to the fifth pick.
The drama was amplified in this season’s lottery as the NHL televised the drawing live from the NHL Network studios for the first time in the event’s 30-year history. Previously, the drawing was held in a sequestered room at the facility, with deputy commissioner Bill Daly revealing each draft position by flipping over a stack of cards on television.
“It’s basically the same thing that I do when we’d pretape it and Bill would reveal it. For me, it’s the same. It’s a little different for Bill. He doesn’t have to flip the cards over now,” Bettman said.
The NHL decided to make the drawing live because it drew more fan bases into the excitement of the first overall pick than the previous format. Before the Islanders won the lottery, seven teams still had a shot at the first overall selection: The Blackhawks, Philadelphia Flyers, Pittsburgh Penguins and the Islanders each had two balls that would win them the lottery, while the Sharks, Seattle Kraken and Buffalo Sabres each had one.
“It gave those teams and those fan bases hope going into that final. To me, that was what this was all about: To keep hope alive all the way until the end,” Steve Mayer, the NHL’s chief content officer, said.
There was plenty of drama before the final ball was drawn, too. The NHL partnered with SportsMEDIA Technology (SMT) to create real-time odds adjustments after every ball was selected. When No. 7 was selected as the first ball in the first drawing, the Sharks’ odds spiked to 20.6%, while the Calgary Flames were eliminated. When No. 11 was taken second, the Sharks went up to 24.3% while four other teams were eliminated. When No. 12 was selected third, that’s when things took a turn: The Sharks’ chances dropped to 9.1%, the Predators and New York Rangers were eliminated and suddenly both the Penguins (9th) and the Islanders (10th) had an 18.2% chance at the first overall pick.
“This was the idea from the beginning. If we’re going to do this, we have to know after the first ball what the percentages are and who’s out. We need to know after the second ball and the third. We need to know going into the last ball what every team needs,” Mayer said.
“I said, ‘Can somebody way smarter than me figure this out?’ And that’s what they end up doing.”
At last year’s draft lottery, the NHL did a very rough run-through of what a live lottery draw might look like. Mayer sent that video to Bettman and Daly before the live broadcast as a way to present the run of show, with MLB Network employees having stood in for the commissioner and deputy commissioner.
Were there any concerns? “Steve said a hundred percent guaranteed, no problem. And his track record on putting on events, outdoor games, All-Star Games and the draft is impeccable. So we rely on his assurance,” Bettman said.
The NHL was pleased with the event after its completion, both in creating a more dramatic viewing experience and in the technology working. Bettman said there would be a debriefing among the league’s staffers but anticipated the format would return next season. That’s when the drama will really get amplified, when 17-year-old phenom Gavin McKenna of Medicine Hat in the Western Hockey League is expected to be the first pick.
“All the lotteries are important, and they all get the same treatment, in terms of how seriously we treat them,” Bettman said. “We can be a little lighthearted talking about how this [live drawing] came about, but in the final analysis, we had to get comfortable that this was a process with unquestionable integrity.”
Bookmakers across the sportsbook marketplace don’t see a consensus Stanley Cup favorite as the Florida Panthers gear up to attempt a very rare NHL three-peat.
“The way I look at it, there’s no real clear-cut, short favorite,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. “This year, it’s more wide open at the top, and then you have a whole second tier of teams that are in that 20-to-40 range. There’s another 10 teams there. Could the Stanley Cup winner come from there? Absolutely. But the top tier has eight teams that we believe will contend for the title.”
The last preseason Stanley Cup favorite to win it all was Colorado (+600) in the 2021-22 season.
The Panthers opened as one of the favorites to win the Cup immediately following their second straight championship. They were +600 solo favorites by mid-September following offseason contract extensions for Aaron Ekblad, Brad Marchand and Sam Bennett — despite offseason surgery for superstar Matthew Tkachuk, who is expected back before the new year.
However, a training camp knee injury to captain Aleksander Barkov, which is expected to keep him out for the entire regular season, if not longer, derailed Florida’s Stanley Cup lines at most books. Several operations immediately dropped the team’s championship odds, with ESPN BET briefly lengthening them to +1000.
Still, action on the Cats has remained robust, with ESPN BET reporting its highest portion of bets (17.1%) and handle (21.4%) backing them to three-peat, while BetMGM says the team’s 13.8% handle is the second-highest in the market. Some bookmakers, such as Karry Shreeve, the head of hockey at Caesars Sportsbook, refused to even dethrone the Panthers as favorites, noting that Barkov and Tkachuk’s injuries have more effect on the team’s regular-season odds.
“We’re not ready to drop them in price significantly, at least for the Stanley Cup, just because I’m not convinced who’s going to fill their spot [in the playoffs],” Shreeve told ESPN. “So long as Florida’s getting into the playoffs again, as far as right now, not knowing anything else, they’re still, to me, the favorite. Not by a lot, but still a favorite, and not a team we’re willing to push out in price just yet.”
Several sportsbooks, including DraftKings and ESPN BET, are instead high on the Hurricanes, even though bettors are backing them at a relatively low clip in terms of both the number of tickets and money wagered.
“Carolina is one of the most consistently dominant teams we have seen in recent years, having recouped some talent over the summer as they look to make another deep run,” ESPN BET senior director Adrian Horton said by email. “Patrons will likely have their postseason struggles in mind, but it took the Panthers at full steam to eliminate them. We fully expect Carolina to be back battling in the playoffs.”
In the favorites tier, bettors are more focused on the Avalanche, who have garnered the third-highest handle at BetMGM and ESPN BET. Beyond the first tier, many patrons are keying on the Toronto Maple Leafs (+1600), who have taken the most tickets and money at BetMGM.
Will the Panthers three-peat as Stanley Cup champions? Which teams will finish the season atop the division standings? And which players will take home the major individual awards?
We’ve gathered our cross-platform ESPN hockey family together to predict the winners of each division, along with the Stanley Cup champion and the players who will win all of the hardware.
Sean Allen: Maple Leafs John Buccigross: Lightning Stormy Buonantony: Lightning Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Maple Leafs Sach Chandan: Lightning Meghan Chayka: Lightning Ryan S. Clark: Lightning Ray Ferraro: Lightning Emily Kaplan: Lightning Tim Kavanagh: Senators Rachel Kryshak: Lightning Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Lightning Steve Levy: Maple Leafs Vince Masi: Lightning Victoria Matiash: Lightning Sean McDonough: Lightning AJ Mleczko: Lightning Mike Monaco: Lightning Arda Öcal: Lightning T.J. Oshie: Lightning Kristen Shilton: Maple Leafs P.K. Subban: Lightning John Tortorella: Panthers Bob Wischusen: Lightning Greg Wyshynski: Lightning
Totals: Lightning (19), Maple Leafs (4), Senators (1), Panthers (1)
Metropolitan Division
Sean Allen: Devils John Buccigross: Hurricanes Stormy Buonantony: Hurricanes Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Hurricanes Sach Chandan: Devils Meghan Chayka: Hurricanes Ryan S. Clark: Hurricanes Ray Ferraro: Hurricanes Emily Kaplan: Hurricanes Tim Kavanagh: Devils Rachel Kryshak: Hurricanes Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Hurricanes Steve Levy: Devils Vince Masi: Hurricanes Victoria Matiash: Devils Sean McDonough: Rangers AJ Mleczko: Hurricanes Mike Monaco: Hurricanes Arda Öcal: Devils T.J. Oshie: Capitals Kristen Shilton: Hurricanes P.K. Subban: Capitals John Tortorella: Devils Bob Wischusen: Hurricanes Greg Wyshynski: Hurricanes
Sean Allen: Stars John Buccigross: Avalanche Stormy Buonantony: Avalanche Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Avalanche Sach Chandan: Avalanche Meghan Chayka: Avalanche Ryan S. Clark: Avalanche Ray Ferraro: Stars Emily Kaplan: Avalanche Tim Kavanagh: Avalanche Rachel Kryshak: Stars Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Stars Steve Levy: Stars Vince Masi: Avalanche Victoria Matiash: Stars Sean McDonough: Stars AJ Mleczko: Stars Mike Monaco: Avalanche Arda Öcal: Stars T.J. Oshie: Stars Kristen Shilton: Stars P.K. Subban: Wild John Tortorella: Wild Bob Wischusen: Avalanche Greg Wyshynski: Avalanche
Totals: Avalanche (12), Stars (11), Wild (2)
Pacific Division
Sean Allen: Oilers John Buccigross: Oilers Stormy Buonantony: Golden Knights Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Golden Knights Sach Chandan: Golden Knights Meghan Chayka: Golden Knights Ryan S. Clark: Golden Knights Ray Ferraro: Golden Knights Emily Kaplan: Golden Knights Tim Kavanagh: Golden Knights Rachel Kryshak: Oilers Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Golden Knights Steve Levy: Kings Vince Masi: Golden Knights Victoria Matiash: Golden Knights Sean McDonough: Oilers AJ Mleczko: Golden Knights Mike Monaco: Oilers Arda Öcal: Golden Knights T.J. Oshie: Golden Knights Kristen Shilton: Golden Knights P.K. Subban: Oilers John Tortorella: Golden Knights Bob Wischusen: Golden Knights Greg Wyshynski: Oilers
Totals: Golden Knights (17), Oilers (7), Kings (1)
Stanley Cup
Sean Allen: Panthers John Buccigross: Hurricanes Stormy Buonantony: Golden Knights Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Jets Sach Chandan: Avalanche Meghan Chayka: Avalanche Ryan S. Clark: Stars Ray Ferraro: Golden Knights Emily Kaplan: Panthers Tim Kavanagh: Stars Rachel Kryshak: Stars Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Golden Knights Steve Levy: Kings Vince Masi: Avalanche Victoria Matiash: Golden Knights Sean McDonough: Oilers AJ Mleczko: Avalanche Mike Monaco: Oilers Arda Öcal: Maple Leafs T.J. Oshie: Oilers Kristen Shilton: Stars John Tortorella: Devils Bob Wischusen: Panthers Greg Wyshynski: Avalanche
Sean Allen: Auston Matthews John Buccigross: Auston Matthews Stormy Buonantony: Connor McDavid Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Auston Matthews Sach Chandan:Leon Draisaitl Meghan Chayka: Leon Draisaitl Ryan S. Clark: Nikita Kucherov Ray Ferraro: Leon Draisaitl Emily Kaplan: Leon Draisaitl Tim Kavanagh: Kirill Kaprizov Rachel Kryshak: Leon Draisaitl Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Auston Matthews Steve Levy: Leon Draisaitl Vince Masi:Brayden Point Victoria Matiash: Auston Matthews Sean McDonough: Leon Draisaitl AJ Mleczko: Auston Matthews Mike Monaco: Auston Matthews Arda Öcal: Auston Matthews T.J. Oshie: Leon Draisaitl Kristen Shilton: Auston Matthews P.K. Subban:Jake Guentzel John Tortorella: Connor McDavid Bob Wischusen: Auston Matthews Greg Wyshynski: Leon Draisaitl
Sean Allen:Cale Makar John Buccigross: Cale Makar Stormy Buonantony:Shea Theodore Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Cale Makar Sach Chandan:Zach Werenski Meghan Chayka: Cale Makar Ryan S. Clark: Cale Makar Ray Ferraro:Quinn Hughes Emily Kaplan: Zach Werenski Tim Kavanagh: Quinn Hughes Rachel Kryshak: Cale Makar Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Cale Makar Steve Levy: Quinn Hughes Vince Masi: Quinn Hughes Victoria Matiash: Quinn Hughes Sean McDonough: Cale Makar AJ Mleczko: Quinn Hughes Mike Monaco: Cale Makar Arda Öcal: Cale Makar T.J. Oshie: Cale Makar Kristen Shilton: Quinn Hughes P.K. Subban:Lane Hutson John Tortorella: Quinn Hughes Bob Wischusen: Cale Makar Greg Wyshynski:Rasmus Dahlin
Sean Allen:Jake Oettinger John Buccigross: Jake Oettinger Stormy Buonantony: Jake Oettinger Cassie Campbell-Pascall:Connor Hellebuyck Sach Chandan:Andrei Vasilevskiy Meghan Chayka: Andrei Vasilevskiy Ryan S. Clark: Andrei Vasilevskiy Ray Ferraro: Andrei Vasilevskiy Emily Kaplan: Jake Oettinger Tim Kavanagh:Jacob Markstrom Rachel Kryshak:Igor Shesterkin Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Andrei Vasilevskiy Steve Levy: Jake Oettinger Vince Masi:Linus Ullmark Victoria Matiash: Andrei Vasilevskiy Sean McDonough: Igor Shesterkin AJ Mleczko: Jake Oettinger Mike Monaco: Jake Oettinger Arda Öcal: Andrei Vasilevskiy T.J. Oshie: Connor Hellebuyck Kristen Shilton: Igor Shesterkin P.K. Subban: Andrei Vasilevskiy John Tortorella:Sergei Bobrovsky Bob Wischusen: Igor Shesterkin Greg Wyshynski: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Sean Allen:Alexander Nikishin John Buccigross:Ivan Demidov Stormy Buonantony: Ivan Demidov Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Ivan Demidov Sach Chandan:Michael Misa Meghan Chayka: Ivan Demidov Ryan S. Clark: Ivan Demidov Ray Ferraro: Ivan Demidov Emily Kaplan:Zeev Buium Tim Kavanagh:Jimmy Snuggerud Rachel Kryshak: Ivan Demidov Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Ivan Demidov Steve Levy: Zeev Buium Vince Masi: Jimmy Snuggerud Victoria Matiash: Jimmy Snuggerud Sean McDonough: Ivan Demidov AJ Mleczko: Zeev Buium Mike Monaco: Ivan Demidov Arda Öcal:Yaroslav Askarov T.J. Oshie:Ryan Leonard Kristen Shilton: Ivan Demidov P.K. Subban:Matthew Schaefer John Tortorella: Ryan Leonard Bob Wischusen: Ivan Demidov Greg Wyshynski: Alexander Nikishin
Kiley McDaniel covers MLB prospects, the MLB Draft and more, including trades and free agency.
Has worked for three MLB teams.
Co-author of Author of ‘Future Value’
In case you hadn’t heard, Aaron Judge entered the 2025 MLB playoffs with a checkered history of October results compared with his stellar regular-season résumé.
For his career, Judge’s OPS is 250 points lower in the postseason than in the regular season (the average regular-season-to-playoff OPS dropoff for hitters in 2024 was 18 points), and his struggles on the biggest stage have become a talking point nearly every October.
After his .184/.344/.408 slash line during the Yankees’ 2024 postseason run, Judge is hitting objectively well in the playoffs this year — posting a 1.024 OPS and collecting an MLB-leading eight hits in his first five games. But he isn’t hitting for much power, with just one extra-base hit (a double) in 21 plate appearances, and his team enters Game 3 of the American League Division Series on the brink of elimination.
As the Yankees try to battle back against the Toronto Blue Jays, we dug deep into each of Judge’s first 18 at-bats (and three walks) to see what we can learn about his October so far.
How is Judge being pitched in the playoffs? Is it different from the regular season? Why isn’t he hitting for power? Is it bad luck? And where could his postseason go from here — if the Yankees can stick around long enough for him to find his home run stroke?
How left-handed pitchers are approaching Judge
Judge vs. lefties in playoff career: 42 PA, .400/.500/.714, 19% K, 17% BB, 3 HR Judge vs. lefties this postseason: 8 PA, .500/.500/1.125, 13% K, 0% BB, 0 HR
Each pitcher has different strengths, but there are some clear trends that lefties are following when attacking Judge this month.
The game plan goes something like this: throw hard stuff (four-seam fastballs, sinkers, cutters) on his hands, largely down, then mix in softer stuff to keep him honest, locating those pitches down and on the corners — where he is least likely to do damage. If you miss, miss outside of the zone, not toward the middle. Don’t be afraid to nibble around the outside of the zone and live to fight another day.
That’s a solid plan against almost any hitter, but in this case, it means going hard inside against a 6-foot-7 slugger whose relative weaknesses will always include covering the plate against good stuff.
It’s telling that the two softer-throwing lefties Judge faced (Boston’s Connelly Early and Toronto’s Justin Bruihl) threw two fastballs out of their 10 total pitches and both missed off the plate inside, one missing so far inside that it hit Judge. Garrett Crochet, Aroldis Chapman, and Brendon Little were much more aggressive, likely because of their better fastballs.
How right-handed pitchers are approaching Judge
Judge vs. righties in playoff career: 241 PA, .192/.304/.409, 34% K, 13% BB, 13 HR Judge vs. righties this postseason: 13 PA, .400/.538/.400, 23% K, 15% BB, 0 HR
Judge has faced eight different righties this postseason, and those pitchers vary vastly in their pitch mix and the quality of their stuff, but right-handed pitchers seem to be using a decision tree to craft their game plan against him.
If the righty’s top offspeed pitch is a breaking ball (slider, sweeper, curve) then he is throwing that as often as he can while locating it down and away — and mixing it with fastballs inside to keep Judge from leaning over the plate. Here’s a look at Judge vs. breaking balls only.
If the righty’s top secondary pitch is a splitter — such as Toronto’s Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage in the first two games of the ALDS — then he is mixing splitters and sliders away with some fastballs that are mostly targeted inside.
But no matter their style, one common goal for all of these pitchers is not to make a mistake over the plate!
How does Judge’s regular-season history factor into this plan?
Though Judge’s October struggles have become a narrative over his career, any team setting up its pitching strategy for a series will game plan for the two-time American League MVP with a career 1.028 OPS and 368 home runs rather than treating him like the player with a .223 average and .787 OPS in 63 career playoff games.
And that starts with keeping the ball away from where Judge can do the most damage.
During the 2025 regular season, Judge faced 176 pitches (essentially one pitch every four plate appearances) that qualified as in the middle-middle zone — or, in more general speak, right down the middle.
Against those pitches, Judge had a 1.630 OPS and 15 homers, both figures were second best in baseball.
This is where Judge ranked, among all qualified hitters in MLB this season, measured by xwOBA:
Second best vs. middle-middle pitches
Best vs. pitches in the heart of the zone (a larger part of the strike zone than middle-middle)
Best per pitch vs. fastballs, second in overall value
Best per pitch and overall vs. sinkers
Best per pitch and overall vs. cutters
Imagine getting this scouting report as a pitcher before you face Judge in a playoff game. I wouldn’t throw him anything down the middle, either.
How Judge is handling pitches he should crush
Now for the twist: Judge has faced seven pitches in the playoffs that were in the middle-middle zone (one pitch every three plate appearances, so slightly more frequently than the regular season).
So far this postseason, Judge hasn’t put one of those pitches in play. He swung at five — fouled off four and whiffed at another — and took two middle-middle pitches for strikes.
This isn’t a trend I tried to identify in my research because the small sample means one home run on a center-cut ball would poke a hole in it, but in watching all of his playoff at-bats, I made too many of this sort of note: “target was [zone direction] corner, missed target to the middle of the zone, [nothing bad happened to the pitcher].”
So, yes, it’s a small sample, but October baseball is won and lost on small samples. Judge is getting pitched roughly how he was in the regular season (actually even a bit more hitter-friendly), but he hasn’t replicated his regular-season damage, especially when it comes to punishing mistakes thrown down the middle. Judge has performed basically the same (chase rate, xwOBA, etc.) as the regular season against noncenter-cut pitches, so not taking advantage of these mistakes is accounting for his dip in power in the playoffs this year.
Over 162 games, anyone putting up an OPS over 1.000 is having a very productive season — even if it’s all coming from singles and a few doubles — but the heat has been turned up with the Yankees facing elimination, and the offense needs to deliver, with Judge at the heart of it. This team needs Judge to punish mistakes and create some souvenirs or he is at risk of having another October disappointment added to his résumé.