A pump jack operates near a gas turbine power plant in the Permian Basin oil field outside of Odessa, Texas, U.S. February 18, 2025.
Eli Hartman | Reuters
U.S. onshore oil production has likely peaked and will start to decline due to the recent plunge in crude prices, jeopardizing the nation’s position as the world’s largest fossil fuel producer and its energy security, the CEO of Diamondback Energy told shareholders in a letter this week
U.S. crude oil prices have tumbled about 17% this year as recession fears due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs weigh on demand expectations. At the same time, OPEC+ producers led by Saudi Arabia are rapidly increasing supply to the market.
Adjusted for inflation, there have only been two quarters since 2004 when front-month oil prices have been as cheap as they are now, excluding 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic swept the world, Diamondback CEO Travis Stice wrote.
“Therefore, we believe we are at a tipping point for U.S. oil production at current commodity prices,” Stice warned the company’s shareholders in a letter published Monday. “It is likely that U.S. onshore oil production has peaked and will begin to decline this quarter,” Stice told investors in his letter, pointing to cuts in activity levels.
Diamondback is an independent oil and gas producer focused on the Permian Basin, the most prolific oil patch in the U.S. The company is the third biggest oil producer in the Permian and the sixth biggest in the continental U.S., according to data from Enverus.
U.S. crude oil prices rose more than 4% to $59.56 per barrel Tuesday as domestic production is expected to decline.
Energy security at risk
The shale revolution over the past 15 years has transformed the U.S. into the largest fossil fuel producer in the world, with the country producing more oil and gas than Saudi Arabia and Russia combined, the CEO said.
“This has transformed our economy and given the United States a level of energy security not thought possible at the beginning of this century,” Stice told investors. “Today’s prices, volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty have put this progress in jeopardy,” the CEO warned.
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Depending on how much oil prices fall, the amount of capital needed for the U.S. to produce 13 million barrels per day and for the Permian to produce 6 million bpd “might be an untenable lift for the business model that we put in place, where we’re returning so much back to our investors who own the company,” Stice told analysts on Diamondback’s earnings call Tuesday morning.
“We don’t have a crystal ball in the rest of the world, but we have a very good view of what the U.S looks like, and right now, that’s a business that’s slowing dramatically and likely declining in terms of production,” Stice said.
Onshore production to decline
The number of crews fracking shale for oil and gas has already fallen 15% this year with crews in the Permian Basin down 20% from a peak in January, Stice estimated, warning that number of crews will likely decline further.
Rigs focused on oil production are expected to decline nearly 10% by the end of the second quarter and fall further in the third, the CEO said.
Diamondback has cut its capital budget by about $400 million to $3.4 billion to $3.8 billion this year. Trump’s steel tariffs are the biggest cost headwind the oil producer is currently fighting, Stice said. Those tariffs have increased well costs by about 1% or $40 million annually, the CEO said. Efficiency gains are expected to offset rising costs as activity slows in the coming quarters, he said.
Diamondback has dropped three rigs and one completion crew, and the company expects to remain at these levels through the majority of the third quarter, the CEO said in his letter. It now expects to drill between 385 to 435 wells this year and complete 475 to 550 wells.
“To use a driving analogy, we are taking our foot off the accelerator as we approach a red light,” Stice said. “If the light turns green before we get to the stoplight, we will hit the gas again, but we are also prepared to brake if needed.”
The entrance to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) headquarters is seen during a protest on Feb. 10, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images
For the third time under President Donald Trump, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has pulled back from enforcing a key rule, this time targeting buy now, pay later services.
The CFPB said in a notice on Tuesday that it will not prioritize enforcement of a rule, established during Joe Biden’s presidency, that classified BNPL providers as credit card issuers subject to the Truth in Lending Act. Fintech lenders had been required to comply with more stringent consumer protections, including standardized disclosures, refund processing and formal dispute investigations.
Affirm and other BNPL firms had voiced opposition to the billing statement requirement, arguing that it would confuse users and add unnecessary friction.
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“Requiring BNPL providers to comply with rules designed for open-end credit cards creates compliance challenges and confusing outcomes for consumers,” Affirm wrote in a formal comment letter, urging the CFPB to adopt rules that reflect how consumers actually use BNPL products.
The CFPB is looking to go even further as it’s considering rescinding the rule entirely, citing a need to focus resources on “pressing threats to consumers,” especially service members, veterans, and small businesses.
In October, the Financial Technology Association, which represents major BNPL players, sued the CFPB, claiming the agency overstepped by imposing credit card-like restrictions through an interpretive rule rather than a formal one.
The CFPB notice comes as new consumer data shows mounting pressures in the market.
A Bankrate survey released Monday found that nearly half of BNPL users have faced financial problems tied to these services. As usage rises, particularly for essentials like groceries, missed payments are increasing as well.
Affirm is scheduled to report quarterly results on Thursday. Rival Klarna is on file to go public, but delayed its IPO last month after President Trump’s announcement of sweeping new tariffs roiled financial markets.
About 764,000 wallets that purchased President Donald Trump‘s $TRUMPmeme coin have lost money on the investment, according to fresh data shared with CNBC by blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis.
Most of the wallets that lost money held smaller amounts of the token, according to the firm’s on-chain analysis. Crypto wallets are accounts that store the keys you need to access and use your cryptocurrency holdings.
Chainalysis said that while around 2 million wallets have bought into the token, 58 wallets made more than $10 million apiece, totaling roughly $1.1 billion in gains.
The $TRUMP token, which surged in popularity after being tied to the start of Trump’s second term, has seen sharp price swings and highly uneven returns for investors. Fight Fight Fight LLC. and CIC Digital LLC., control the bulk of the token’s supply.
CNBC has reached out to Fight Fight Fight LLC. for comment on the Chainalysis numbers.
Interest in the coin spiked more than 50% after the project’s website promised the top 220 holders a seat at a black-tie-optional dinner with the president.
The $TRUMP event, set for May 22 at the president’s Trump National Golf Club, Washington, D.C., includes a reception for the 25 wallets with the largest coin balance, along with a White House tour.
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The dinner-pegged rally pushed the token’s market cap to $2.7 billion at its peak, though it has since pulled back to around $2.17 billion.
Since that rally, around 54,000 wallets have bought the coin. In total, 100,000 new wallets have purchased $TRUMP since April 15, Chainalysis said, extending the post-announcement surge despite ongoing volatility in the broader crypto market.
The Trump-branded meme token has drawn scrutiny from regulators and ethics watchdogs.
Lawmakers are now formally investigating whether the $TRUMP meme coin — and a related crypto venture called World Liberty Financial, which sends 75% of revenue to the Trump family — constitute a direct conflict of interest for the president.
The Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations has launched a probe into the token’s ownership structure and revenue model, while House Democrats stormed out of a crypto hearing in protest.
At the center of the controversy is the dinner competition for top token holders, promotional posts from the president himself, and ties to foreign investors including a state-backed Emirati fund and crypto mogul Justin Sun.
Launched in January ahead of Trump’s second inauguration, the token’s value initially soared to $15 billion after a series of promotional posts from the president on Truth Social and X. It lost most of that value within days.
Only 20% of the token’s total supply is currently in circulation. The remaining 80% — reportedly controlled by the Trump Organization and affiliated entities — is locked under a three-year vesting schedule. Public disclosures say insiders have agreed not to sell their allocations for another few months.
Since January, more than $324 million in trading fees have been routed to wallets tied to the project’s creators, according to Chainalysis. The token’s code automatically directs a cut of each transaction to these addresses, allowing the team to profit from ongoing activity.
Lucid Motors (LCID) reported first-quarter earnings on Tuesday, reaffirming its plans to more than double EV production in 2025. Despite the threat of new tariffs, the EV maker expects to continue building momentum after another record quarter.
Lucid stands by 20,000 EV production goal for 2025
In the first three months of 2025, Lucid delivered 3,109 vehicles, setting its fifth straight quarterly record. The company’s production is also picking up, with 2,213 vehicles built at its Casa Grande plant in Arizona. Another 600 were in transit to Saudi Arabia, where they will be assembled at Lucid’s new AMP-2 plant.
At this rate, Lucid is on track to deliver around 12,500 vehicles, easily topping the 10,200 vehicles it delivered in 2024.
With its first electric SUV, the Gravity, now rolling out, Lucid is poised to see even more demand throughout the year.
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Lucid reported first-quarter revenue of $235 million, up slightly from the $234.5 million in Q4 2024 and an increase of 35% from Q1 2024.
Despite higher sales, the EV maker cut its net loss to $366 million from over $680 million in the first quarter of 2024. Lucid also improved gross margins by 37 pts year-over-year (YOY) to -97%.
Even with the added tariffs, Lucid still expects to produce around 20,000 vehicles in 2025, more than double the roughly 9,000 cars it made last year.
Like most automakers, Lucid is preparing for a shakeup under the Trump administration, including possibly ending the $7,500 federal EV tax credit. Earlier today, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson said there’s “a better chance we kill it than save it” during an interview.
Lucid Gravity electric SUV at a Tesla Supercharger (Source: Lucid Motors)
The company said, “A thorough analysis of tariffs, supply chain, and related macroeconomic uncertainties is ongoing.”
Lucid ended the first quarter with around $5.76 billion in total liquidity, which the company said is enough to fund it into the second half of 2026, when it plans to launch its midsize platform.
Lucid midsize electric SUV teaser image (Source: Lucid)
Former CEO Peter Rawlinson said earlier this year that Lucid’s midsize platform is “finally when we compete directly with Tesla.” The first two vehicles are expected to be an electric SUV and sedan, starting at around $50,000, which could rival Tesla’s Model Y and Model 3.
But first, it will focus on its new electric SUV. The Lucid Gravity Grand Touring is available to order starting at $94,900 with up to 450 miles of range. Later this year, Lucid will launch the lower-priced Touring trim, starting at $79,900.
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