The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is seeking permission from the court to drop an appeal against prediction market Kalshi. The move could allow the platform to offer political event contracts to users without contest.
In a May 5 filing in the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, lawyers for the CFTC filed an unopposed motion for voluntary dismissal, suggesting an agreement with Kalshi. The motion, subject to approval by the court, could end the CFTC’s appeal against a federal court ruling that the financial regulator could not bar Kalshi from listing political event contracts, i.e., bets on elections.
Motion to dismiss appeal filed by the CFTC on May 5. Source: Courtlistener
Kalshi stipulated in a joint filing that the company would “bear its own costs, court fees and attorney fees incurred” if the court granted the CFTC’s motion to dismiss. The platform said that “election markets are here to stay” in a May 6 X post following the filing.
The betting platform initially filed a lawsuit against the CFTC in 2023 in response to the regulator ordering Kalshi to stop offering political event contracts. The company won in the lower court, prompting the appeal by the CFTC in September 2024.
Motion to drop the appeal after the change in administration?
The case was handled mainly before the US election and the appointment of acting CFTC chair Caroline Pham under President Donald Trump. CFTC Commissioner Summer Mersinger, nominated by former President Joe Biden, reportedly echoed Kalshi’s sentiment in February, claiming that election prediction markets were “here to stay.”
Launched in 2021, Kalshi became popular among many crypto users in part due to bets related to the 2024 US election. Though the CFTC argued in its appeal that betting on the elections could result in “spectacular manipulation” of markets and harm to the public interest, the regulator under Pham and Trump appeared to have reversed its position with the motion to dismiss.
Strive Asset Management, founded by entrepreneur and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, has revealed plans to transition into a Bitcoin treasury company.
According to a May 7 announcement, Strive is going public through a reverse merger and plans to use the combined company’s stock to accumulate Bitcoin (BTC).
The deal will see Strive merging with Asset Entities — a social media marketing company listed on the Nasdaq. The combined entity will operate under the Strive brand and use its access to the public equity markets to finance Bitcoin purchases, the company said.
Once the deal closes, Strive plans to issue approximately $1 billion in equity and debt and use the proceeds to accumulate BTC. The asset manager “intends to use all available mechanisms to build a Bitcoin war chest […] and build a long-term investment approach designed to outperform Bitcoin,” it said.
Strive plans to allow “Bitcoin holders to contribute Bitcoin in exchange for public stock through a structure that is intended to be tax-free,” it said. As of May 7, the company manages approximately $2 billion in net assets across a variety of funds.
In December, Strive filed to list an exchange-traded fund (ETF) investing in convertible bonds issued by MicroStrategy and other corporate Bitcoin buyers.
Corporate Bitcoin treasuries are increasingly popular. Source: Bitcointreasuries.net
Corporate Bitcoin treasuries
Corporate Bitcoin treasuries have become popular since the approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Wall Street. Companies pioneering the Bitcoin buyer approach, such as Strategy have seen their share prices surge by 350% in 2024.
Analysts say adding Bitcoin to corporate treasuries can “potentially be a valuable hedge against growing fiscal deficits, currency debasement, and geopolitical risks,” asset manager Fidelity Digital Assets said in a 2024 report.
Corporate Bitcoin treasuries collectively hold roughly $74 billion worth of BTC as of May 7, according to Bitcointreasuries.net.
Ramaswamy, an outspoken ally of President-elect Donald Trump, founded Strive in 2022. Its stated goal is to help investors “harness the power of capitalism,” according to Strive’s website.
In 2023, Ramaswamy — who largely earned his $1 billion net worth from biotechnology startup Roivant Sciences — campaigned against Trump in the Republican presidential primary. He later endorsed the president-elect.
At least some of the top holders of Donald Trump’s memecoin who apply to attend a private dinner with the president could be based outside the United States.
According to a May 7 Bloomberg report based on an analysis of the top TRUMP tokenholders, 19 of the top 25 wallets on the leaderboard used foreign exchanges that exclude US-based customers, suggesting either foreign nationals or Americans living abroad. In addition, more than half of the top 220 holders — the group eligible to apply for a dinner with the president — also used exchanges in other countries.
Top 10 TRUMP memecoin holders as of May. 7. Source: Trump meme
As of May 7, the identities of the top tokenholders and those who might choose to apply for the May 22 Trump dinner and “special VIP tour” were unknown. However, the project stated that anyone who applied could not bring guests, had to pass a background check, and “can not be from a [Know Your Customer] watchlist country.”
The implications of having dozens or hundreds of memecoin holders potentially tied to foreign governments and interest groups have raised ethics concerns from some US lawmakers, claiming that Trump was engaging in “pay-to-play” corruption. At least one senator has called for the president’s impeachment, saying Trump was “selling access for what are effectively payments directly to him.”
Memecoin concerns are slowing crypto legislation
Democratic lawmakers in the House of Representatives and Senate have already been pushing back against considering any crypto-related legislation until Republicans address concerns around “Trump’s crypto corruption.” The Senate is expected to vote on a bill regulating stablecoins on May 8, and House Republicans recently introduced a discussion draft of a digital asset market structure bill.
Then-president-elect Trump launched the memecoin on Jan. 17 — three days before taking office — followed by the first lady introducing her own token. Two companies connected to Trump control roughly 80% of the memecoin’s supply.
The launch of the memecoin and its potential influence over the president and his agenda has already prompted some companies to get on board. On April 30, a trucking logistics management company announced a $20 million investment in the TRUMP token, suggesting influencing Trump’s trade war between the US and Mexico, where the firm conducts much of its business.
USD1, the US dollar stablecoin launched by the President Donald Trump-backed World Liberty Financial (WLFI), has become the seventh-largest stablecoin worldwide in just two months since its launch.
Launched in early March with a $3.5 million supply, USD1 has expanded into a market cap of $2.2 billion at the time of writing, leaving rival stablecoins First Digital USD (FDUSD), PayPal USD (PYUSD) and Tether Gold (XAUT) behind, according to data from CoinGecko.
Top 10 stablecoins by market capitalization. Source: CoinGecko
Although rising fast, the USD1 market cap is still far from the market value of major stablecoins like Tether’s USDt (USDT) and USDC (USDC), whose market caps are worth $149 billion and $61 billion, respectively.
BNB Chain drives USD1 issuance
Trump-backed USD1 is almost exclusively issued on Binance-backed BNB Chain. According to data from BscScan, as much as $2.1 billion of all USD1 supply is issued on BNB Chain, accounting for more than 99% of its total circulating supply, while an Ethereum-based version accounts for just $14.5 million, according to Etherscan.
Justin Sun-backed HTX among the first CEXs to list USD1
As USD1’s market cap spiked, some centralized exchanges (CEXs) rushed to list the Trump-backed stablecoin.
HTX, a crypto exchange closely associated with Tron founder Justin Sun and formerly known as Huobi, announced the listing of USD1 with permanent zero-fee withdrawals on the BEP-20 network on May 6.
Source: HTX
According to websites like CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap, HTX was one of the first CEXs to list USD1, as the token is primarily available on decentralized exchanges, including PancakeSwap and Uniswap.
Most WLFI inflows come from outside the US
While the WLFI community has been voting on the USD1 airdrop, some reports suggested that WLFI investment is mainly coming from outside the United States.
According to a poll by V1PS founder Notaz.Sol, as much as 90% of WLFI investors are likely coming from non-US jurisdictions, including Europe, Asia and Latin America.
A May 7 Bloomberg report also indicated that over half of the top holders of Trump-branded memecoins reside abroad.
The USD1 stablecoin’s growth lines up with Trump’s pro-stablecoin agenda announced in his executive order on “Strengthening American leadership in digital financial technology” in January.