2025 post-spring Way-Too-Early Top 25: Where do Texas and Notre Dame rank?
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Mark Schlabach
With spring practice in the books and the transfer portal closed (although it’s never completely shut with players still signing with new schools), the college football calendar is finally slowing down — for a few weeks at least.
It’s a good time for the second edition of the 2025 Way-Too-Early Top 25, which has about as much turnover as Clemson‘s roster and not nearly as much as Texas Tech‘s since the first rankings on Jan. 20.
There’s a new No. 1 with Penn State jumping from No. 3 after defending College Football Playoff national champion Ohio State lost a boatload of players to the NFL draft, along with both of its coordinators.
The Nittany Lions are followed by Clemson, Texas, Georgia and Ohio State.
Tennessee fell out of the rankings after losing quarterback Nico Iamaleava to the portal. The Volunteers were No. 19 in the initial rankings. Boise State, previously No. 24, is also no longer ranked.
Texas Tech and Oklahoma, which have been quite busy in the transfer portal, check in at No. 16 and No. 25, respectively.
Here’s the second version of the 2025 Way-Too-Early Top 25:
2024 record: 13-3, 8-1 Big Ten
Previous ranking: 3
Key returning players: QB Drew Allar, RB Kaytron Allen, RB Nicholas Singleton, C Nick Dawkins, DE Dani Dennis-Sutton, S Zakee Wheatley, CB A.J. Harris
Key transfer portal additions: WR Trebor Pena (Syracuse), WR Devonte Ross (Troy), WR Kyron Hudson (USC), S King Mack (Alabama), DE Owen Wafle (Michigan), DE Enai White (Texas A&M)
2025 outlook: After finally turning the corner under coach James Franklin in 2024, the Nittany Lions look loaded for bear this coming season. With Allar, Allen and Singleton returning, Penn State should have one of the most balanced offenses in the FBS, especially if Allar takes the next step as a downfield passer. Adding Pena, Ross and Hudson was critical; Penn State’s receivers didn’t have a reception in a 27-24 loss to Notre Dame in a CFP semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl. Pena, a slot receiver, had 84 catches for 941 yards with nine scores in 2024.
Ross was one of the top receivers in the portal after hauling in 76 passes for 1,043 yards with 11 scores last season. Penn State’s most important offseason addition might be new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles, who helped guide Ohio State to a CFP national title last season. He’s the highest-paid coordinator in the FBS at $3.1 million per season.
2024 record: 10-4, 7-1 ACC
Previous ranking: 7
Key returning players: QB Cade Klubnik, WR Antonio Williams, WR Bryant Wesco Jr., LB Sammy Brown, LB Wade Woodaz, DL T.J. Parker, DL Peter Woods, OT Blake Miller
Key transfer portal additions: DE Will Heldt (Purdue), LB Jeremiah Alexander (Alabama), WR Tristan Smith (Southeast Missouri State)
2025 outlook: Much like Penn State, Clemson’s offense is stacked with a talented quarterback, deep receiver corps and an experienced offensive line coming back. The Tigers don’t have a two-player attack at tailback and that remains their biggest concern after spring practice. Last year’s leading rusher, Phil Mafah, departed for the NFL, and top backup Jay Haynes tore an ACL in the ACC championship game.
Converted wide receiver Adam Randall, and freshmen David Eziomume and Gideon Davidson might all get significant carries. Davidson was the No. 3 running back in the Class of 2025, according to ESPN Recruiting. Clemson coach Dabo Swinney also made a big move to shore up his defense, which ranked next to last in the ACC in stopping the run in 2024 (160.6 yards), luring defensive coordinator Tom Allen away from Penn State. Heldt, who had five sacks at Purdue last season, is another important player on the best defensive line in the FBS.
2024 record: 13-3, 7-1 SEC
Previous ranking: 2
Key returning players: QB Arch Manning, RB Quintrevion Wisner, LB Anthony Hill Jr., DE Colin Simmons, DE Trey Moore, S Michael Taaffe
Key transfer portal additions: DL Maraad Watson (Syracuse), DL Travis Shaw (North Carolina), DL Cole Brevard (Purdue), DL Lavon Johnson (Maryland), P Jack Bouwmeester (Utah), TE Jack Endries (Cal), WR Emmett Mosley V (Stanford)
2025 outlook: After waiting patiently for two years, the highly anticipated Arch Manning era is off and running in Austin. Though Manning had limited action against SEC teams, he looks more than ready to take over for departed starter Quinn Ewers. The Longhorns will have to replace four starting offensive linemen; Trevor Goosby was working at left tackle and Cole Hutson moved to center in the spring. Right guard DJ Campbell also had a great spring.
Texas’ top three pass catchers from 2024 (Matthew Golden, Gunnar Helm and Isaiah Bond) are also gone. There are still good options in Ryan Wingo, DeAndre Moore Jr. and Mosley, who caught 48 passes for 525 yards with six scores as a Stanford freshman in 2024. Moore and Wingo were limited in the spring because of injuries. Hill and Simmons are the leaders on defense, along with safeties Taafe and Jelani McDonald. Texas brought in five defensive line transfers, including Watson, a freshman All-American at Syracuse last season.
2024 record: 11-3, 6-2 SEC
Previous ranking: 5
Key returning players: QB Gunner Stockton, TE Oscar Delp, TE Lawson Luckie, LB CJ Allen, LB Raylen Wilson, S KJ Bolden, CB Daylen Everette
Key transfer portal additions: RB Josh McCray (Illinois), LB Elo Modozie (Army), WR Noah Thomas (Texas A&M), WR Zachariah Branch (USC), S Jaden Harris (Miami), S Adrian Maddox (UAB), DL Josh Horton (Miami)
2025 outlook: Thanks to the additions of Thomas and Branch from the transfer portal, Georgia’s receiver corps, which was a problem area in 2024, might actually be a strength in 2025. Stockton, who took over in last season’s SEC championship game and CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl, had a good spring and should win the starting job. McCray led the Illini with 609 rushing yards and 10 scores last season; his physical running style will complement Frazier.
Coach Kirby Smart made Modozie a priority in the spring portal window after the Bulldogs lost NFL first-round picks Jalon Walker and Mykel Williams. Modozie had 6.5 sacks and eight tackles for loss for the Black Knights in 2024. Freshman Elijah Griffin, the No. 1 defensive tackle prospect in the 2025 ESPN 300, made a great impression in spring practice and should contribute immediately.
2024 record: 14-2, 7-2 Big Ten
Previous ranking: 1
Key returning players: WR Jeremiah Smith, WR Carnell Tate, WR Brandon Inniss, S Caleb Downs, CB Davison Igbinosun, CB Jermaine Mathews Jr., LB Arvell Reese, C Carson Hinzman, G Luke Montgomery
Key transfer portal additions: TE Max Klare (Purdue), G Phillip Daniels (Minnesota), OT Ethan Onianwa (Rice), DE Beau Atkinson (North Carolina), OT Justin Terry (West Virginia)
2025 outlook: The Buckeyes won’t have an easy time replacing the players from the senior class and both coordinators who helped lead them to their third national championship since 2002. Starting quarterback Will Howard and running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson were among the key losses. Freshman Julian Sayin and sophomore Lincoln Kienholz were locked in for a pretty good battle for starting quarterback in the spring, although it still seems to be Sayin’s job to lose.
Whomever wins the job will be blessed with the best receiver corps in the sport, led by Smith and Tate. Klare caught 51 passes for 685 yards with four touchdowns at Purdue in 2024. There were heavy losses on defense too; linebacker Cody Simon, safety Lathan Ransom, defensive ends Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau, and cornerback Denzel Burke won’t be easily replaced. Coach Ryan Day hired former Detroit Lions coach Matt Patricia to replace Jim Knowles, who left for Penn State. Depth on the defensive line, especially in the interior, was a big concern coming out of spring practice.
2024 record: 9-4, 5-3 SEC
Previous ranking: 6
Key returning players: QB Garrett Nussmeier, RB Caden Durham, WR Aaron Anderson, LB Whit Weeks, CB Ashton Stamps, LB Harold Perkins Jr., S Jardin Gilbert
Key transfer portal additions: DE Patrick Payton (Florida State), DE Jack Pyburn (Florida), WR Nic Anderson (Oklahoma), WR Barion Brown (Kentucky), C Braelin Moore (Virginia Tech), G Josh Thompson (Northwestern), CB Mansoor Delane (Virginia Tech), S A.J. Haulcy (Houston), DT Bernard Gooden (South Florida), S Tamarcus Cooley (NC State)
2025 outlook: There’s no reason the Tigers shouldn’t be in the thick of the SEC title and CFP races after coach Brian Kelly added 18 players from the transfer portal, including several plug-and-play starters. The latest addition, Haulcy, was an All-Big 12 performer in 2024. The Tigers were already returning the SEC’s most productive quarterback in Nussmeier and a deep receiver corps that only improved with Brown and Anderson. Moore and Thompson should help shore up an offensive line that lost four starters.
Haulcy joins a secondary that had already added Delane and Cooley. Payton and Pyburn were big-time additions on the edge, and Gooden filled a much-needed role on the interior defensive line. The Tigers are going to score a ton of points in 2025, but they have to stop opponents better than a year ago, when they ranked 14th in the SEC in scoring defense (24.3 points).
2024 record: 14-2
Previous ranking: 4
Key returning players: RB Jeremiyah Love, RB Jadarian Price, WR Jordan Faison, WR Jaden Greathouse, LB Drayk Bowen, S Adon Shuler
Key transfer portal additions: WR Malachi Fields (Virginia), WR Will Pauling (Wisconsin), TE Ty Washington (Arkansas), DL Jared Dawson (Louisville), DL Elijah Hughes (USC), S DeVonta Smith (Alabama), S Jalen Stroman (Virginia Tech)
2025 outlook: The biggest development from the spring was quarterback Steve Angeli‘s departure to Syracuse. He backed up former starter Riley Leonard during the Fighting Irish’s run to the CFP national title game. That leaves freshman CJ Carr (former Michigan coach Lloyd Carr’s grandson) and sophomore Kenny Minchey competing for the job. Carr seemed to have the edge coming out of spring practice. Irish coach Marcus Freeman dipped into the portal for some help at wideout in Fields, who caught 55 passes for 808 yards with five touchdowns last season, and Pauling, who had 42 receptions for 407 yards with three scores.
Notre Dame’s offensive line depth took a hit when three contributors — center Pat Coogan (Indiana), guard Rocco Spindler (Nebraska) and guard Sam Pendleton (Tennessee) — transferred. New defensive coordinator Chris Ash has big shoes to fill after Al Golden left to lead the Cincinnati Bengals‘ defense. Smith, a cornerback at Alabama, was working as the first-team nickel back during spring practice.
2024 record: 13-1, 9-0 Big Ten
Previous ranking: 6
Key returning players: WR Evan Stewart, TE Kenyon Sadiq, C Iapani Laloulu, LB Devon Jackson, LB Teitum Tuioti, LB Matayo Uiagalelei, LB Bryce Boettcher, S Kingston Lopa
Key transfer portal additions: RB Makhi Hughes (Tulane), G Emmanuel Pregnon (USC), OT Isaiah World (Nevada), OT Alex Harkey (Texas State), S Dillon Thieneman (Purdue), CB Theran Johnson (Northwestern), DT Bear Alexander (USC)
2025 outlook: The Ducks went back to work after winning a Big Ten title and finishing 13-0 in the regular season. The next step for coach Dan Lanning is to advance in the CFP. Former five-star prospect Dante Moore was battling Austin Novosad to replace Dillon Gabriel as the starting quarterback. Hughes, who ran for 1,401 yards with 15 scores in 2024, was working as the No. 1 tailback. Pregnon, World and Harkey were in position to start on the offensive line.
Freshman Dakorien Moore, the No. 1 receiver prospect in the 2025 ESPN 300, had a great spring and probably will challenge for a starting job. Johnson and Thieneman were competing for starting jobs in the secondary, and Alexander is trying to revive his once-promising career as the No. 1 nose tackle.
2024 record: 9-4, 5-3 SEC
Previous ranking: 12
Key returning players: RB Jam Miller, WR Ryan Williams, WR Germie Bernard, C Parker Brailsford, OT Kadyn Proctor, DE LT Overton, LB Justin Jefferson, LB Deontae Lawson, CB Zabien Brown, CB Domani Jackson, S Keon Sabb
Key transfer portal additions: WR Isaiah Horton (Miami), TE Brody Dalton (Troy), G Kam Dewberry (Texas A&M), CB Cameron Calhoun (Utah)
2025 outlook: There’s no question the Crimson Tide took a big step back in coach Kalen DeBoer’s first season, but what team wouldn’t after losing Nick Saban, arguably the greatest coach of all time? Alabama is too good of a program — and DeBoer is too good of a coach — for it to not claw itself back into contention for an SEC title.
Ty Simpson seems to be the player who will replace Jalen Milroe at quarterback, and the Tide added Horton as another proven pass catcher to complement Williams. Former Washington offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb is also back after spending the past season in the NFL. There are future NFL players in the linebacker corps and secondary, but depth is a concern on the defensive line.
2024 record: 11-2, 7-2 Big 12
Previous ranking: 9
Key returning players: QB Jake Retzlaff, RB LJ Martin, WR Chase Roberts, WR/KR Keelan Marion, LB Isaiah Glasker, LB Jack Kelly, S Tanner Wall, CB Evan Johnson
Key transfer portal additions: DT Keanu Tanuvasa (Utah), DE Tausili Akana (Texas), DT Anisi Purcell (Southern Utah), TE Carsen Ryan (Utah), OT Andrew Gentry (Michigan)
2025 outlook: The Cougars came close to making the CFP last season, and with Retzlaff, Martin, Roberts and Marion returning, they should be more explosive on offense. The Cougars will have to replace three starting offensive linemen; Isaiah Jatta (Colorado Buffaloes) and Gentry are ready to take over at tackle.
BYU is searching for more depth on the defensive line, where Tanuvasa and Akana were competing for starting jobs. The linebacker corps suffered a blow when returning starting middle linebacker Harrison Taggart transferred to California in the spring. The group is still in good shape with Glasker and Kelly returning. Wall and Johnson lead a very experienced secondary.
2024 record: 10-3, 6-3 Big Ten
Previous ranking: 13
Key returning players: QB Luke Altmyer, RB Aidan Laughery, OT J.C. Davis, C Josh Kreutz, CB Xavier Scott, LB Gabe Jacas, LB Dylan Rosiek, SS Matthew Bailey, FS Miles Scott
Key transfer portal additions: WR Hudson Clement (West Virginia), DL James Thompson Jr. (Wisconsin), NT Curt Neal (Wisconsin), DL Tomiwa Durojaiye (Florida State), LB Leon Lowery Jr. (Wisconsin)
2025 outlook: After winning 10 games in a season for the first time since 2001, Illinois coach Bret Bielema said he doesn’t think the Illini are getting enough respect as a Big Ten title contender, and he might have a point. As ESPN’s Bill Connelly pointed out, only Clemson (81%) and Arizona State (79%) have more returning production than Illinois (76%) in the FBS. The Illini are bringing back senior quarterback Altmyer, all five starting offensive linemen, the entire secondary and star linebacker Jacas.
Finding new playmakers at receiver was a focus this spring — Clement and junior Malik Elzy emerged as potential starters. The Illini have two good options at running back, Laughery and Kaden Feagin, after Josh McCray left for Georgia. The Illini added a handful of veteran defensive linemen from the transfer portal, including Thompson, who had five sacks with the Badgers the past two seasons.
2024 record: 11-3, 7-2 Big 12
Previous ranking: 14
Key returning players: QB Sam Leavitt, WR Jordyn Tyson, RB Kyson Brown, S Myles Rowser, S Xavion Alford, LB Keyshaun Elliott, LB Jordan Crook, CB Keith Abney II, CB Javan Robinson, DE Clayton Smith
Key transfer portal additions: CB Nyland Green (Purdue), S Adrian Wilson (Washington State), RB Kanye Udoh (Army), WR Jaren Hamilton (Alabama), K Jesús Gómez (Eastern Michigan), DL My’Keil Gardner (Oregon)
2025 outlook: The Sun Devils won a Big 12 title in their first season in the conference in 2024, and now they’ll attempt to pull off the rare feat of repeating as champions. Leavitt and Tyson are already being projected as potential first-round picks in the 2026 NFL draft; Tyson was cleared to participate in the spring after sitting out the 2024 postseason because of a shoulder injury.
There’s no question Arizona State will miss tailback Cam Skattebo‘s production; Kyson Brown, Raleek Brown and Udoh are in the mix for carries. There are 10 starters coming back from a defense that led the league in run defense (112.9 yards) and was No. 3 in scoring defense (22.6 points). The Sun Devils gave up too many big plays in the passing game, and they were working on getting more pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
2024 record: 9-4, 5-3 SEC
Previous ranking: 10
Key returning players: QB LaNorris Sellers, WR Mazeo Bennett Jr., LT Josiah Thompson, S Jalon Kilgore, DE Dylan Stewart, DE Bryan Thomas Jr., S DQ Smith
Key transfer portal additions: DT Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy (Texas A&M), LB Shawn Murphy (Florida State), DE Jaylen Brown (Missouri), RB Rahsul Faison (Utah State), TE Jordan Dingle (Kentucky), C Boaz Stanley (Troy), CB Brandon Cisse (NC State)
2025 outlook: The Gamecocks made big strides under coach Shane Beamer a year ago, finishing the regular season with a six-game winning streak. They worked hard to keep Sellers after he passed for 2,534 yards with 18 touchdowns and seven more rushing in 2024. The NCAA hasn’t yet approved Faison’s additional year of eligibility, although Beamer was hopeful. He ran for 1,109 yards with eight touchdowns at Utah State in 2024.
A trio of transfers — Brownlow-Dindy, Murphy and Cisse — were in line to start on defense after spring practice. South Carolina will play another difficult schedule in the SEC with road games at Missouri, LSU, Ole Miss and Texas A&M and home games against Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Oklahoma and Alabama. It will also play Virginia Tech in Atlanta in its Aug. 31 opener and close the regular season against Clemson at home.
2024 record: 11-3, 7-2 Big 12
Previous ranking: 11
Key returning players: QB Rocco Becht, RB Carson Hansen, RB Abu Sama III, LB Kooper Ebel, S Jeremiah Cooper, CB Jontez Williams, DL Domonique Orange, LB Caleb Bacon, TE Benjamin Brahmer
Key transfer portal additions: WR Chase Sowell (East Carolina), WR Xavier Townsend (Central Florida), DE Vontroy Malone (Tulane), DE Cannon Butler (Northern Iowa), DE Tamatoa McDonough (Yale), CB Tre Bell (Lindenwood)
2025 outlook: The Cyclones won 11 games for the first time in school history in 2024, and with Becht returning for his third season as a starter, there’s plenty of optimism in Ames, Iowa, about this coming season. Iowa State lost top receivers Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins, but Sowell and Townsend are capable replacements.
Two starters also will have to be replaced up front on offense. Finding depth on the defensive line was a priority in the spring — Malone and Butler looked ready to contribute, and the Iowa State coaches are excited about McDonough’s potential. The Cyclones play Kansas State in Dublin to open the season and will host BYU and Arizona State at home.
2024 record: 11-3, 8-0 ACC
Previous ranking: 15
Key returning players: QB Kevin Jennings, S Isaiah Nwokobia, G Logan Parr, OT Savion Byrd, OT PJ Williams, S Ahmaad Moses, CB Jaelyn Davis-Robinson
Key transfer portal additions: RB T.J. Harden (UCLA), DE DJ Warner (Kansas), DE Trey Wilson (Baylor), DE Aakil Washington (South Alabama), DT Terry Webb (Texas State), DT Jeffrey M’Ba (Purdue), DT William Spencer (Louisville)
2025 outlook: After unexpectedly reaching the CFP in their first season in the ACC, the Mustangs’ priorities were pretty clear this spring: find some receivers and defensive linemen. SMU lost top pass catchers Roderick Daniels Jr. and Key’Shawn Smith, as well as leading rusher Brashard Smith. Coach Rhett Lashlee signed Harden, UCLA’s leading rusher in 2024, and he’s hoping freshmen Daylon Singleton and Jalen Cooper and a couple of transfers can help at receiver.
The situation on the defense is even more pressing after star edge rusher Elijah Roberts and tackle Jared Harrison-Hunte departed for the NFL. Making matters worse, the Mustangs lost tackle Jonathan Jefferson to an undisclosed injury that is expected to require him taking a medical redshirt this season, according to Lashlee. The Mustangs signed nine defensive linemen out of the portal to help.
2024 record: 8-5, 6-3 Big 12
Previous ranking: Not ranked
Key returning players: QB Behren Morton, WR Coy Eakin, WR Caleb Douglas, G Davion Carter, LB Ben Roberts, LB Jacob Rodriguez, S Chapman Lewis, CB Maurion Horn
Key transfer portal additions: DE David Bailey (Stanford), DE Romello Height (Georgia Tech), DL Lee Hunter (Central Florida), OT Howard Sampson (North Carolina), OT Will Jados (Miami of Ohio), WR Reggie Virgil (Miami of Ohio), TE Terrance Carter (Louisiana), DL Skyler Gill-Howard (Northern Illinois)
2025 outlook: Few teams were as active in the transfer portal as the Red Raiders, who put most of their attention (and money) on shoring up a defense that played terribly in 2024. Texas Tech surrendered 35 points or more in each of its five losses and ranked 122nd in the FBS in scoring defense (34.8 points) and next to last in pass defense (308.1 yards). Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire hired former Houston defensive coordinator Shiel Wood, who helped the Cougars improve from 112th in total defense in 2023 to 26th last season.
The Red Raiders signed several high-profile pass rushers, including Bailey, who had 14.5 sacks in three seasons at Stanford. At least three transfers are expected to start on the offensive line, and former USC running back Quinten Joyner will be in the mix to replace Tahj Brooks, who ran for 1,505 yards in 2024. Morton sat out preseason practices while recovering from December shoulder surgery; he recently started throwing again.
2024 record: 11-2, 8-1 Big Ten
Previous ranking: 17
Key returning players: WR Elijah Sarratt, WR Omar Cooper Jr., OT Carter Smith, G Drew Evans, LB Aiden Fisher, CB D’Angelo Ponds, S Amare Ferrell, DE Mikail Kamara
Key transfer portal additions: QB Fernando Mendoza (California), C Pat Coogan (Notre Dame), G Kahlil Benson (Colorado), OT Zen Michalski (Ohio State), WR Makai Jackson (App State), TE Holden Staes (Tennessee), DT Hosea Wheeler (Western Kentucky), DT Dominique Ratcliff (Texas State), CB Ryland Gandy (Pittsburgh), S Devan Boykin (NC State)
2025 outlook: The Hoosiers stunned the college football world by reaching the CFP in coach Curt Cignetti’s first season. And they’ve gone back into the transfer portal to fill some holes to try to run it back. Mendoza was one of the top quarterbacks in the portal after throwing for 3,004 yards with 16 touchdowns in 2024. Three transfers could start on the offensive line, and Jackson and California transfer Jonathan Brady should help a solid receiver corps.
Wheeler and Ratcliff will anchor the middle of the defensive line, and Kamara’s return was a big boost for the defense. It’s going to be difficult for Indiana to match last season’s success, but its nonconference schedule (Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and FCS program Indiana State) gives it a chance to get off to a good start.
2024 record: 9-4, 5-4 Big 12
Previous ranking: 16
Key returning players: QB Avery Johnson, RB Dylan Edwards, WR Jayce Brown, TE Garrett Oakley, C Sam Hecht, LB Austin Romaine, S VJ Payne, LB Desmond Purnell
Key transfer portal additions: WR Jerand Bradley (Boston College), WR Jaron Tibbs (Purdue), WR Caleb Medford (New Mexico), LB Gabe Powers (Ohio State), S Gunner Maldonado (Arizona), RB Antonio Martin Jr. (Southeast Louisiana), OT George Fitzpatrick (Ohio State)
2025 outlook: Johnson is ready to take the next step as a passer, and Kansas State coach Chris Klieman says he’s much more confident and efficient heading into his second season as a starter and first under new offensive coordinator Matt Wells. Edwards is ready to emerge as the No. 1 tailback after DJ Giddens departed, and the Wildcats added Bradley, Tibbs and Medford to help Brown at receiver.
Three starters have to be replaced on the offensive line. Leading tacklers Romaine and Payne return, but the Wildcats lost top edge rusher Brendan Mott. There’s still plenty of returning talent in nose tackles Damian Ilalio and Cody Stufflebean, and ends Tobi Osunsanmi and Chiddi Obiazor. Kansas State opens the season against Iowa State in Dublin and plays Army at home.
2024 record: 8-5, 4-4 SEC
Previous ranking: 18
Key returning players: C Jake Slaughter, LT Austin Barber, QB DJ Lagway, RB Jadan Baugh, RB Ja’Kobi Jackson, WR Eugene Wilson III, TE Hayden Hansen DE Tyreak Sapp, DE George Gumbs Jr., DL Caleb Banks, S Jordan Castell
Key transfer portal additions: J.Michael Sturdivant (UCLA), S Micheal Caraway Jr. (Southern Miss), P Tommy Doman (Michigan), QB Harrison Bailey (Louisville), DE Kofi Asare (UMass)
2025 outlook: Much of Gators coach Billy Napier’s future seems tied to Lagway, who showed a lot of promise in his first season, throwing for 1,915 yards with 12 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Lagway was a limited participant in spring practice while recovering from a shoulder injury and other ailments. He has started throwing again, and Napier is confident he’ll be fully healthy in offseason workouts.
The Gators returned much of their offensive line, two solid running backs and a recruiting class that included promising wideouts Dallas Wilson and Vernell Brown III. If Lagway stays healthy, the Gators should build on last season’s strong finish. But they’ll again play one of the most difficult schedules in the FBS with home games against Texas, Georgia (Jacksonville) and Tennessee and road games at LSU, Miami, Texas A&M and Ole Miss.
2024 record: 8-5, 5-4 Big Ten
Previous ranking: 21
Key returning players: LB Ernest Hausmann, LB Jaishawn Barham, DE TJ Guy, DE Derrick Moore, DL Rayshaun Benny, S Rod Moore, CB Zeke Berry, C Greg Crippen, G Giovanni El-Hadi, K Dominic Zvada, TE Marlin Klein
Key transfer portal additions: RB Justice Haynes (Alabama), QB Mikey Keene (Fresno State), WR Anthony Simpson (UMass), WR Donaven McCulley (Indiana), DL Tre Williams (Clemson), DL Damon Payne (Alabama), S TJ Metcalf (Arkansas)
2025 outlook: Michigan’s highly anticipated quarterback battle never really materialized this spring because Keene was sidelined by a shoulder injury. Five-star prospect Bryce Underwood and Jadyn Davis got most of the work in the spring. Haynes was working as the No. 1 tailback, and McCulley provides the offense with a taller option at receiver. Many of Michigan’s best defensive players are returning, but the Wolverines are going to have a difficult time replacing star defensive tackles Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant.
Payne, Williams and Rayshaun Benny will probably rotate in the interior defensive line. The Wolverines face some uncertainty heading into the season again — ESPN reported Monday that the university is planning to suspend coach Sherrone Moore for two games as part of self-imposed sanctions for the Connor Stalions advanced scouting scandal. He would miss games against Central Michigan and Nebraska.
2024 record: 10-3, 6-2 ACC
Previous ranking: 23
Top returning players: RB Mark Fletcher Jr., RB Jordan Lyle, OT Markel Bell, OT Francis Mauigoa, TE Elija Lofton, G Matthew McCoy, DE Rueben Bain Jr., DE Akheem Mesidor, LB Wesley Bissainthe, CB OJ Frederique Jr.
Key transfer portal additions: QB Carson Beck (Georgia), WR CJ Daniels (LSU), WR Keelan Marion (BYU), WR Tony Johnson (Cincinnati), C James Brockermeyer (TCU), CB Xavier Lucas (Wisconsin), S Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State), DT David Blay (Louisiana Tech)
2025 outlook: Much of the Hurricanes’ hopes in 2025 ride on Beck’s surgically repaired right arm. He sat out spring practice after undergoing surgery to repair a torn UCL in his right elbow. If he’s healthy and cuts down on the turnovers that plagued him at Georgia last season, Miami’s offense might be one of the better ones in the ACC. The Hurricanes have two dependable tailbacks and what could be a very good offensive line.
The receiver room needed depth — coach Mario Cristobal picked up Daniels, Marion and Johnson from the portal. Poyser and Lucas will help fill a couple of holes in the secondary, and Bain and Mesidor are healthy and have slimmed down. The Hurricanes open the season against Notre Dame at home on Aug. 31 and play Florida at home on Sept. 20.
2024 record: 9-4, 5-3 ACC
Previous ranking: 20
Key returning players: WR Chris Bell, RB Isaac Brown, LB TJ Quinn, LB Stanquan Clark, C Pete Nygra, RB Duke Watson, S D’Angelo Hutchinson, OT Trevonte Sylvester
Key transfer portal additions: QB Miller Moss (USC), G Naeer Jackson (FIU), DE Wesley Bailey (Rutgers), DE Justin Beadles (New Mexico State), NT Denzel Lowry (Old Dominion), CB Rodney Johnson Jr. (Southern), FS JoJo Evans (FIU)
2025 outlook: After a season full of near misses in 2024, Cardinals coach Jeff Brohm is rolling with another transfer quarterback this season. Moss started nine games at USC before losing the job in 2024; he threw for 3,469 yards with 27 touchdowns in his career there. The good news for Moss is he’ll join an offense with Brown, one of the best tailbacks in the FBS, and a receiver corps that includes Bell and Caullin Lacy, who sat out most of last season after breaking his collarbone.
The Cardinals might have to score a lot of points because their defense is probably going to be a work in progress. There were big losses up front, although leading tacklers Quinn and Clark are returning. Louisville added a few defensive backs from the portal to also rebuild the back end.
2024 record: 8-5, 5-3 SEC
Key losses: 22
Key returning players: QB Marcel Reed, RB Le’Veon Moss, RB Rueben Owens, OT Trey Zuhn III, LB Taurean York, CB Will Lee III, S Dalton Brooks, LB Scooby Williams
Key transfer portal additions: WR Kevin Concepcion (NC State), WR Mario Craver (Mississippi State), WR Jonah Wilson (Houston), DL Tyler Onyedim (Iowa State), DL T.J. Searcy (Florida), DL Sam M’Pemba (Georgia), DL Dayon Hayes (Colorado), CB Jordan Shaw (Washington), CB Julian Humphrey (Georgia)
2025 outlook: The Aggies should be better with Reed getting a second offseason under his belt, and he’ll be much more effective if they can keep Moss and Owens healthy. Moss was one of the best backs in the SEC before he went down because of a knee injury in the ninth game in 2024. Owens sat out most of last season because of a Lisfranc fracture in his left foot, but the former four-star prospect is healthy.
The Aggies upgraded their receiver corps by adding Concepcion, Craver and Wilson. Their biggest concern on defense is replacing Shemar Stewart, Shemar Turner and Nic Scourton‘s production up front. Onyedim, Searcy and Hayes should help, and Shaw should be a big contributor in the secondary.
2024 record: 10-3, 5-3 SEC
Previous rankings: 25
Key returning players: QB Austin Simmons, WR, Cayden Lee, TE Dae’Quan Wright, LB TJ Dottery, LB Suntarine Perkins, DT Zxavian Harris
Key transfer portal additions: DT Da’Shawn Womack (LSU), DE Princewill Umanmielen (Nebraska), CB Ricky Fletcher (South Alabama), S Sage Ryan (LSU), S Kapena Gushiken (Washington State), WR De’Zhaun Stribling (Oklahoma State), G Delano Townsend (UAB), G Patrick Kutas (Arkansas)
2025 outlook: Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin isn’t expecting Simmons to be as productive as NFL first-rounder Jaxson Dart in his first season as a starter, but Simmons has already shown he can be pretty good in limited action. Logan Diggs, who sat out most of last season while recovering from a torn ACL, is in line to start at tailback, and Stribling, Caleb Odom (Alabama), Deuce Alexander (Wake Forest) and Harrison Wallace III (Penn State) are new faces at receiver. Womack and Umanmielen were important pickups on the defensive line, and there are several transfers competing for starting jobs in the secondary.
2024 record: 6-7, 2-6 SEC
Previous ranking: Not ranked
Key returning players: DE R Mason Thomas, NT Damonic Williams, DT Jayden Jackson, LB Kip Lewis, CB Eli Bowen, SS Peyton Bowen, FS Robert Spears-Jennings, WR Deion Burks, C Troy Everett
Key transfer portal additions: QB John Mateer (Washington State), RB Jaydn Ott (California), WR Isaiah Sategna (Arkansas), WR JaVonnie Gibson (Arkansas-Pine Bluff), TE Will Huggins (Pittsburg State), OT Derek Simmons (Western Carolina), DE Marvin Jones Jr. (Florida State)
2025 outlook: The Sooners didn’t have much to cheer about in their first season in the SEC, finishing 6-7 for the second time in three years. Coach Brent Venables needs a bounce-back season in a big way, and he has transformed his offense to try to make it happen. Mateer threw for 3,139 yards with 29 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, while rushing for 826 and 15 scores. Ott was one of the top runners in the FBS with 1,305 yards in 2023, but he limped through an injury-plagued season last year.
Gibson, an FCS All-American in 2024, broke his right leg during spring practice, but Venables says he is hopeful he’ll be back before the start of the season. The Sooners were pretty sound on defense last season, and Thomas, Williams and Jackson are an imposing front. The secondary should be good again with Spears-Jennings and both Bowens returning. With home games against Michigan, Auburn, Texas (in Dallas), Ole Miss and LSU, and road games at South Carolina, Tennessee and Alabama, Oklahoma will have to be much better to be a surprise.
Cranberry, Pa. – As Evgeni Malkin sits in an empty locker room at the Penguins practice facility, being interviewed for a story about his longtime teammate Sidney Crosby, the 39-year-old Russian center makes a point for emphasis.
“You see security here?” Malkin says, motioning to the Penguins’ detail, standing discreetly in the doorway. “It’s like, not my security. It’s Sidney Crosby’s security.”
Malkin’s résumé certainly warrants the celebrity treatment: Calder Trophy, Hart Trophy, two scoring titles and, of course, three Stanley Cups in a nine-year span that brought the Penguins back to glory.
But nobody on the Penguins — or perhaps the entire hockey world — can match Crosby’s star power. The captain’s reputation, let alone his list of on-ice accomplishments, is pristine. “You never heard one bad thing about Sidney Crosby,” said Kris Letang, the other member of Pittsburgh’s big three. “He’s perfect. He’s the perfect ambassador for the game.”
It’s why, ahead of Crosby’s 21st season in the NHL, there has been so much discourse about what his future might hold — and whether one of hockey’s most transcendent talents is wasting his final chapter holding on to what he once had in Pittsburgh.
Not only is Crosby’s production absurd (1,687 points in 1,352 career games and counting) but few players in hockey history have remained this consistent and this competitive as they enter their career twilight. While playing his sound two-way game, Crosby scored 91 points (33 goals, 58 assists) in 80 games this past season, leading the Penguins by 21 points. In an NHLPA poll released in April, Crosby was voted by his peers as the “most complete player” in the game — for the sixth straight season.
Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid at age 28 — a full decade younger than Crosby — is in the prime of his career. But he still defers to Crosby. McDavid advocated for Crosby to captain Team Canada at last February’s 4 Nations Face-Off, calling it a “no-brainer.”
“He hasn’t seemed to change at all,” McDavid said last fall. “He has been great year after year. It’s so impressive to see someone I grew up admiring still doing it to this day.”
Crosby has once again been able to play meaningful games on the international stage, which should include NHL players’ long-anticipated return to the Olympics this February, where he will likely captain Team Canada again.
The Penguins’ prognosis, however, is not as bright. Pittsburgh’s 16-year Stanley Cup playoffs streak ended in 2023, and the Penguins haven’t returned since. GM Kyle Dubas has been embarking on a rebuild, restocking a prospect pool that was essentially barren, with so many draft picks and young players traded away in order to chase championships. Pittsburgh’s opening night roster will feature five rookies, led by a first-time head coach, Dan Muse, who is just five years older than Crosby. They are loading up for the future.
“We’re in a period of transition, and our goal is, and the expectation is, we’re going to get to the point where we’re not just contenders again, but it’s gonna be contending on a consistent basis,” Muse said. “It’s not just get back into the playoffs; it’s to be a true contender, and then to stay there. And I think that’s been extremely clear to me from day one. And that message has been consistent in the time prior, until now.”
Nobody knows how long that plan will take — including the Penguins. It’s dictated by a series of factors, including development.
Meanwhile Crosby’s performance at 4 Nations (he tied McDavid for the team lead with five points in four games as Canada won the tournament) punctuated how exciting it is to see the 38-year-old on hockey’s most competitive stages still.
Some people around Crosby have tried to advocate that it’s a disservice to hockey to stick around for a rebuild with no end in sight. That includes Crosby’s longtime agent, Pat Brisson, who has said publicly that it’s his personal belief that Crosby needs to be playing playoff hockey.
For his part, Crosby maintains tunnel vision. That might sound like lip service for most people, but not Crosby, whose determination is fueled by details and an obsession for routine. He said his mindset every season is the same — an approach that prepares him to play in June. He maintains that he hasn’t seriously considered a trade to this point.
“I know that if all my energy isn’t towards what it needs to be, then I’m not giving myself the best chance for it to be successful,” Crosby said. “If it ever came to that point, I would discuss it, but I don’t feel like I’m there.”
Crosby’s two-year extension he signed summer 2024 kicks in this season. It’s extremely team friendly: $8.7 million average annual value, perhaps half of what he could receive on the open market. It’s also an extremely tradable contract — and all the cards belong to Crosby, who has a full no-movement clause. League sources believe the Penguins would never approach Crosby to waive it, out of deference to him. A trade would have to be Crosby driven. He would choose the time, and he would choose the destination. The Penguins would need to get compensation they felt is fair. And it all likely would go down quietly.
Or it might not happen at all. Crosby’s future is entirely in his hands. He wants to win again as badly as anyone — but in Pittsburgh. To this point in his career, he has demonstrated incredible loyalty to Pittsburgh, as well as his teammates. That’s especially true with Malkin and Letang; they are longest-tenured trio of teammates in major North American sports history
“He’s a very special person for me, because he’s probably my best friend here in Pittsburgh,” Malkin said. “First guy I met when I went to Pittsburgh, I go to dinner with Mario [Lemieux] and Sid. And after, we’re always together. I mean, he texts me all summer, you know? He texts me during season, we try to support each other. It’s not always perfect, you know? Sometimes, like, we need to understand each other. Some guys have problem with, like, games, with families, you know? Like — and he asks me, like — all the time like, ‘If you need anything, come to my house.'”
Malkin enters the final year of his contract and trade speculation is sure to ramp up around his name as well. As the Penguins opened camp, Malkin said he hopes it won’t be his last season in Pittsburgh, but admitted that would be dependent on both how he and the team play. Malkin scored 16 goals and 50 points in 68 games this past season. Letang is signed through 2028.
Another name to watch this season will be Bryan Rust, Crosby’s winger on the top line. Rust is signed through the next three seasons. The 33-year-old is happy in Pittsburgh and wants to stay. However, he doesn’t have trade protection. If the Penguins get a good enough offer — a package that could accelerate the rebuild — Rust could be traded away just like Jake Guentzel two years ago.
It’s not just friendships on the ice for Crosby that tie him to Pittsburgh: it’s relationships with the community.
“We have the children’s hospital visit that we do once a year with the entire team. There’s tons of cameras,” Letang said. “But he’s also going to go see patients in a different hospital and that’s completely off radar. And, you know, I was a witness because he asked me to come with him one year and see what he was doing.”
Youth hockey in Pittsburgh has exploded since Crosby’s arrival. The Little Penguins Learn to Play program Crosby launched in 2008 has introduced thousands of kids to the sport. Crosby and the city are in a long-term relationship that truly has benefitted them both.
“I still remember my first day going there, getting to the airport, coming down the escalators, and just it was packed,” Crosby said. “To have that kind of welcoming, and then just, right from arriving at the rink to living with Mario, just so many amazing first impressions, but then great memories since. It’s been a long time I’ve been there, and I couldn’t be more grateful that it worked out the way it has and that I was drafted there.”
Those close to Crosby say the distinction of wearing only one jersey is something he strongly considers. When Los Angeles Kings captain Anze Kopitar announced his retirement after this season, he noted playing his entire career in one city was a major point of pride for him.
However, there’s a counterpoint: Tom Brady. His reputation in New England is still as its all-time franchise legend. But after 20 years, he signed with the Buccaneers and was able to finish out his career with another championship there, too.
So, it comes down to the question: What motivates Crosby at this point?
“As you play, if you still have the passion, I think you find different things that motivate you,” Crosby said. “This year is obviously an Olympic year, so you know, that’s a big motivation. But as far as just in general, I think the motivation is just to be my best. You know, whatever that is, you know, regardless of age and expectations, all that. I always just try to be my best, and that’s enough for me.”
Malkin took it a step further.
“I think he mentally wants to show every year he can play 100%,” Malkin said. “And mentality, like, maybe one more cup, you know? We want to win together again. Because last cup, like, 10 years ago.”
In fact, it has only been eight years since the Penguins last won. But for an all-time great, that can feel like forever.
The SEC is eating up half the spots in the latest College Football Playoff top 12 projection — and Texas isn’t even taking up one of them.
The Longhorns are out following their loss to Florida in the Swamp. Penn State is out following an embarrassing loss at once-winless UCLA. Florida State is out after a second loss, this time to rival Miami.
Which means new teams can get in.
Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into four groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. Teams listed as On the cusp are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.
The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date.
Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Spotlight: LSU. The Tigers came back into the conversation this week, in part because Penn State tumbled out and opened a spot. They ranked No. 12 in our projection. If the playoff were today, though, the committee’s No. 12 team would get knocked out of the field during the seeding process to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. If LSU is going to truly legitimize itself in the playoff race, it has to move up into a top-10 spot, which is the safest place to be. That’s not going to be easy, considering LSU has the 10th-most-difficult remaining schedule, according to ESPN Analytics. The metrics give LSU the 10th-best chance in the SEC to reach the conference championship game (4.4%). Saturday’s game against South Carolina is critical because the next three opponents (No. 20 Vandy, No. 5 Texas A&M and No. 8 Alabama) are ranked, and two of the three games are on the road. If LSU is going to be a factor in the postseason, it has to improve its running game and its big-play capabilities. The run game ranks 119th in the country with 104.8 yards per game, and LSU is No. 103 in plays over 20 yards (18).
The enigma: Missouri. We’ll learn more about the undefeated Tigers on Saturday when they host Alabama, but as of right now, their best wins are against Kansas and South Carolina. They’ve got the No. 3 running game in the country (292 yards per game), and lead the country in third-down conversion percentage (61.6%). Defensively, they’re fundamentally sound, leading the country with only 20 missed tackles. Can they maintain this success against a ranked opponent? The Tigers have the seventh-most-difficult remaining schedule, according to ESPN Analytics. They’re about to enter their season-defining stretch, and they had a bye week to prepare for the Tide. After that, it’s back-to-back road trips to Auburn and Vandy. This month will determine how seriously to take Mizzou.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M
On the cusp: LSU
Work to do: Missouri, Vanderbilt
Would be out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Texas
Big Ten
Spotlight: Michigan. The Wolverines have won three straight games since the Week 2 road loss at Oklahoma, and they’re growing along with freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood. According to ESPN Analytics, Michigan currently has the fourth-best chance to reach the Big Ten title game (22.5%) behind Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana, but the latter two play each other Saturday. If Michigan can win at USC on Saturday, the picture begins to change, but ESPN’s FPI gives USC a 68.5% chance to win. If Michigan loses, it would be in a must-win situation against rival Ohio State in the regular-season finale to avoid a third loss and have a chance at an at-large bid. (That is assuming, of course, that Michigan doesn’t stumble along the way to sneaky good teams such as Washington and Maryland.) The Wolverines have one of the nation’s top rushing offenses and defenses heading into USC. Speaking of the Trojans …
The enigma: USC. Can the Trojans play four quarters against a ranked opponent? USC was undefeated heading into Illinois on Sept. 27, and couldn’t finish in a 34-32 loss. They get the Wolverines at home before heading to rival Notre Dame on Oct. 18. A win against Michigan would give USC a much-needed cushion, considering its two toughest remaining games — Notre Dame and Nov. 22 at Oregon — are on the road. USC’s defense has allowed at least 30 points in each of the past two games. The selection committee won’t penalize USC for a close road loss to a decent Illinois team, but it will be looking for statement wins, and right now the Trojans don’t have one.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
On the cusp: Michigan
Work to do: Illinois, Maryland, Nebraska, USC, Washington
Would be out: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
ACC
Spotlight: Georgia Tech. The undefeated Yellow Jackets are one missed call from being in the “work to do” category below. Officials missed a critical offsides penalty Sept. 27 at Wake Forest, helping Georgia Tech drive down the field for a game-tying field goal before winning in overtime. The selection committee members will know this situation and consider it during their discussions. The Jackets are here because of their realistic chance to reach the ACC title game — not their résumé, which doesn’t include any wins against ranked opponents, and that might continue, as none of their remaining ACC opponents is currently ranked. Rival Georgia will be Georgia Tech’s best chance to impress the selection committee for an at-large bid if the Jackets don’t win the ACC. They’re good enough, though, to be undefeated heading into the Georgia game, which could make things interesting. Right now ESPN’s FPI projects the Jackets to win each remaining game except against Duke and Georgia. That’s why ESPN Analytics is showing Georgia Tech has the fourth-best chance (18.6%) in the league to reach the ACC title game behind Miami, Duke and Virginia. If Georgia Tech doesn’t lock up a spot as the ACC champ, the committee will have a significant debate about the Jackets as a two-loss ACC runner-up (loss in ACC title game and to Georgia) with no statement wins.
The enigma: Virginia. First the Cavaliers caught the nation’s attention with the Friday night spotlight win against Florida State, and then they eked out an overtime road win against Louisville. Now they’ve got the third-best chance to reach the ACC title game (45.3%), according to ESPN Analytics. That’s because ESPN’s FPI projects Virginia to lose at Duke on Nov. 15, its toughest remaining game. Virginia is similar to Georgia Tech in that it’s unlikely to face any ranked conference opponents the rest of the season, but it doesn’t have a big-time nonconference opponent to help compensate for that. So if the Hoos don’t win the ACC, that Week 2 loss at NC State could come back to haunt them as a two-loss conference runner-up. Virginia fans should be cheering for FSU to run the table because the more the Noles win, the better that Sept. 26 win against them looks.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Miami
On the cusp: Georgia Tech
Work to do: Virginia
Would be out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big 12
Spotlight: BYU. The undefeated Cougars are here because they’re on a collision course with Texas Tech to play for the Big 12 title. According to ESPN Analytics, BYU has the second-best chance to reach the Big 12 championship game (43%) behind the Red Raiders (67.3%). This will get settled on the field before then, as those teams play each other Nov. 8 at Texas Tech. It’s currently the only game on the Cougars’ schedule that ESPN’s FPI gives them less than a 50% chance to win. Even if BYU loses that game, if it’s the Cougars’ only loss, they could face Texas Tech again in the league championship. BYU would lock up a spot with the Big 12 title, but two losses to the Red Raiders would likely knock them out as the conference runner-up. That depends, though, on how many Big 12 opponents are ranked by the selection committee.
The enigma: Arizona State. The close road loss to a much-improved Mississippi State team isn’t as bad as it might have seemed (though the Bulldogs have had a dose of reality with back-to-back losses to Tennessee and Texas A&M). The Sun Devils have won three straight games since that Sept. 6 loss, knocking off Baylor and TCU to reposition themselves near the top of the Big 12 standings again. The question is whether the defending conference champs are good enough to repeat. The season-defining stretch begins Saturday at Utah, followed by home games against Texas Tech and Houston before heading to Iowa State ahead of the first CFP ranking Nov. 4. ESPN’s FPI projects ASU will lose three of those next four.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Texas Tech
On the cusp: BYU
Work to do: Arizona, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, TCU, Utah
Would be out: Baylor, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, UCF, West Virginia
Independent
Would be out: Notre Dame. The Irish have a case to be the selection committee’s top two-loss team, and they’re doing everything right to make the slow climb back into the conversation. No team in the country has a better chance to win out than Notre Dame (42.2%), according to ESPN Analytics. One of the biggest criticisms of the Irish in their back-to-back season-opening losses was the defense, which had allowed Texas A&M 41 points, but Notre Dame hasn’t allowed more than 13 in each of its past two wins. Notre Dame’s toughest remaining game will be on Oct. 18 against rival USC, but the Irish get the Trojans at home. If Notre Dame can finish 10-2 it won’t be a lock, but its playoff chances will skyrocket.
Group of 5
Spotlight: Memphis. As the projected winner of the American this week, Memphis would earn the No. 12 seed at LSU’s expense. The undefeated (Memphis) Tigers have a win against a beleaguered Arkansas team that’s helping push their strength of record to No. 18 in the country — a slight edge over No. 19 South Florida, but all of the other Group of 5 contenders aren’t far behind. This will settle itself on the field, as Memphis plays South Florida on Oct. 25, Tulane on Nov. 7 and Navy on Nov. 27. Memphis still has the best chance to win the American (45.9%), according to ESPN Analytics. The Tigers also have the best chance of any Group of 5 team to reach the CFP (38.4%).
The enigma: UNLV. The Rebels are undefeated and have done something Penn State could not — beat UCLA. UNLV has the edge against Boise State following the Broncos’ second loss in Week 6, but those two teams will face each other Oct. 18 at Boise State. They’re also projected to meet again in the Mountain West Conference title game. Boise State (45.1%) still has the best chance to win the league, with UNLV (33.8%) a close second. According to ESPN Analytics, UNLV has the fifth-best chance to reach the CFP (9.5%).
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Memphis
Work to do: Navy, North Texas, Old Dominion, South Florida, Tulane, UNLV
Bracket
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Oregon
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Ole Miss
No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Alabama
No. 10 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Georgia
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Tennessee/No. 6 Alabama winner vs. No. 3 Oregon
No. 10 Texas Tech/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Indiana/No. 8 Georgia winner vs. No. 1 Miami
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