Why Ukraine’s European allies will be nervously watching VE Day events in Red Square

Published

4 months ago

May 9, 2025

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Donald Trump has a soft spot for military spectacles and autocrats.

He will be looking on with envy as Vladimir Putin parades both in Moscow today, with Chinese leader Xi Jinping flying in to join Victory Day events in Red Square.

European allies of Ukraine will be watching nervously, wary of anything that could upturn the delicate quest for peace.

President Trump‘s patience with peddling his much vaunted “peace deal” has been wearing thin and allies had feared Ukraine could be punished for it.

That would have been grotesquely unfair, of course. Ukraine has bent over backwards to accommodate Mr Trump’s one-sided diplomacy that has so far seemed to favour the aggressor in this obscene war.

True, the Trump proposal does not agree to Russian annexation of all the land already taken by force and stops short of ordering the complete demilitarisation of Ukraine, but otherwise the proposals are pretty much everything that Moscow has asked for.

The deal is being pushed by Steve Witkoff, Mr Trump’s golf partner turned chief negotiator, a man regarded by diplomats as out of his depth and lost in the rough when it comes to the arts of statecraft.

Like his president, Mr Witkoff has a history of doing business with Russian oligarchs, an apparently starry-eyed view of the Russian leader and has called Ukraine a “false country”.

Moment of truth approaching

Mr Witkoff and Mr Trump have so far given Mr Putin the benefit of the doubt, but a moment of truth is approaching. While Ukraine has agreed to a longer ceasefire in principle, Mr Putin will not.

Ukraine’s European allies feared that Mr Trump was about to despair of progress, blame Ukraine and take US military support with him.

Then came the minerals agreement between the US and Ukraine. The breakthrough gave the US president something to show for his efforts and assuaged his desire for some kind of deal. He seems to have moved on for now, at least, and approved the first $50m of arms sales to Ukraine.

But these remain a tense few days ahead with plenty at stake.

Mr Putin’s self-declared three-day ceasefire raises the spectre paradoxically of escalation if either side breaks it.

The Russian lull is seen here in Kyiv as little more than a ploy.

If the Russian leader was serious about giving peace a chance, they say, he would have signed up to the permanent ceasefire being proposed by the Trump team.

Besides, Russia broke the last truce in Easter as soon as it had begun and used it to carry out surveillance and reinforcement operations says Kyiv. Why risk another pointless pause that is exploited by the invaders?

Escalation possible

If Russia plays the same games this time and Ukraine retaliates, there could be a significant escalation. Likewise, with any Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow during Victory Day.

Any major flare-up will not be looked on favourably by the US president if it upstages his first trip abroad this presidency, a three-day tour of the Middle East.

For now, his attention is not so much on the Ukraine conflict and he is no longer issuing threats to walk away and stop supporting the Ukrainians.

That will be a relief here in the Ukrainian capital. They would be unwise to do anything to reengage him, for now at least.

Their European allies, though, know American involvement in this war appears to be receding.

Can they fill the vacuum?

This week, they remember the sacrifices made to bring peace and security to their continent 80 years ago.

Can they find the political will and unity to do so again, even without America?

Astonishingly, given all we have been through, that is still an open question.

World

What’s it like with the National Guard on the streets of DC?

Published

49 mins ago

August 22, 2025

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What's it like with the National Guard on the streets of DC?

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What’s it like on the streets of DC right now, as thousands of federal police patrol the streets?

Who is Steve Witkoff, the US envoy regularly meeting Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu to broker peace in Ukraine and Gaza?

And why is Californian Governor Gavin Newsom now tweeting like Donald Trump?

Martha Kelner and Mark Stone answer your questions.

If you’ve also got a question you’d like the Trump100 team to answer, you can email it to trump100@sky.uk.

You can also watch all episodes on our YouTube channel.

World

It’s been a confusing week – and Trump’s been made to look weak

Published

49 mins ago

August 22, 2025

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It’s been a confusing week.

The Monday gathering of European leaders and Ukraine’s president with Donald Trump at the White House was highly significant.

Ukraine latest: Trump changes tack

The leaders went home buoyed by the knowledge that they’d finally convinced the American president not to abandon Europe. He had committed to provide American “security guarantees” to Ukraine.

The details were sketchy, and sketched out only a little more through the week (we got some noise about American air cover), but regardless, the presidential commitment represented a clear shift from months of isolationist rhetoric on Ukraine – “it’s Europe’s problem” and all the rest of it.

Yet it was always the case that, beyond that clear achievement for the Europeans, Russia would have a problem with it.

Trump’s envoy’s language last weekend – claiming that Putin had agreed to Europe providing “Article 5-like” guarantees for Ukraine, essentially providing it with a NATO-like collective security blanket – was baffling.

Russia gives two fingers to the president

And throughout this week, Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has repeatedly and predictably undermined the whole thing, pointing out that Russia would never accept any peace plan that involved any European or NATO troops in Ukraine.

“The presence of foreign troops in Ukraine is completely unacceptable for Russia,” he said yesterday, echoing similar statements stretching back years.

Remember that NATO’s “eastern encroachment” was the justification for Russia’s “special military operation” – the invasion of Ukraine – in the first place. All this makes Trump look rather weak.

It’s two fingers to the president, though interestingly, the Russian language has been carefully calibrated not to poke Trump but to mock European leaders instead. That’s telling.

The bilateral meeting (between Putin and Zelenskyy) hailed by Trump on Monday as agreed and close – “within two weeks” – looks decidedly doubtful.

Maybe that’s why he went along with Putin’s suggestion that there be a bilateral, not including Trump, first.

It’s easier for the American president to blame someone else if it’s not his meeting, and it doesn’t happen.

NATO defence chiefs met on Wednesday to discuss the details of how the security guarantees – the ones Russia won’t accept – will work.

European sources at the meeting have told me it was all a great success. And to the comments by Lavrov, a source said: “It’s not up to Lavrov to decide on security guarantees. Not up to the one doing the threatening to decide how to deter that threat!”

The argument goes that it’s not realistic for Russia to say from which countries Ukraine can and cannot host troops.

Would Trump threaten force?

The problem is that if Europe and the White House want Russia to sign up to some sort of peace deal, then it would require agreement from all sides on the security arrangements.

The other way to get Russia to heel would be with an overwhelming threat of force. Something from Trump, like: “Vladimir – look what I did to Iran…”. But, of course, Iran isn’t a nuclear power.

Something else bothers me about all this. The core concept of a “security guarantee” is an ironclad obligation to defend Ukraine into the future.

Future guarantees would require treaties, not just a loose promise. I don’t see Trump’s America truly signing up to anything that obliges them to do anything.

A layered security guarantee which builds over time is an option, but from a Kremlin perspective, would probably only end up being a repeat of history and allow them another “justification” to push back.

Image and reality don’t seem to match

Among Trump’s stream of social media posts this week was an image of him waving his finger at Putin in Alaska. It was one of the few non-effusive images from the summit.

He posted it next to an image of former president Richard Nixon confronting Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev – an image that came to reflect American dominance over the Soviet Union.

That may be the image Trump wants to portray. But the events of the past week suggest image and reality just don’t match.

The past 24 hours in Ukraine have been among the most violent to date.

World

At least 17 dead in Colombia after car bombing and helicopter attack

Published

49 mins ago

August 22, 2025

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At least 17 dead in Colombia after car bombing and helicopter attack

At least 17 people were killed after a car bombing and an attack on a police helicopter in Colombia, officials have said.

Authorities in the southwest city of Cali said a vehicle loaded with explosives detonated near a military aviation school, killing five people and injuring more than 30.

Authorities said at least 12 died in the attack on a helicopter transporting personnel to an area in Antioquia in northern Colombia, where they were to destroy coca leaf crops – the raw material used in the production of cocaine.

Antioquia governor Andres Julian said a drone attacked the helicopter as it flew over coca leaf crops.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro attributed both incidents to dissidents of the defunct Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).

He said the aircraft was targeted in retaliation for a cocaine seizure that allegedly belonged to the Gulf Clan.

Who are FARC, and are they still active?

The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, a Marxist guerrilla organisation, was the largest of the country’s rebel groups, and grew out of peasant self-defence forces.

It was formed in 1964 as the military wing of the Colombian Communist Party, carrying out a series of attacks against political and economic targets.

In 2016, after more than 50 years of civil war, FARC rebels and the Colombian government signed a peace deal.

It officially ceased to be an armed group the following year – but some small dissident groups rejected the agreement and refused to disarm.

According to a report by Colombia’s Truth Commission in 2022, fighting between government forces, FARC, and the militant group National Liberation Army had killed around 450,000 people between 1985 and 2018.

Both FARC dissidents and members of the Gulf Clan operate in Antioquia.

It comes as a report from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime found that coca leaf cultivation is on the rise in Colombia.

The area under cultivation reached a record 253,000 hectares in 2023, according to the UN’s latest available report.